Why I Changed My Mind on Tyler Glasnow

You arrived at your opinion “after watching him pitch for years with the same injury.” … is what it should have said. It is not often that a player loses large portions of several seasons to the same injury before it is diagnosed and fixed. However, I have pitched enough to know how hard it is to throw when you can’t get loose, or your arm hurts. Glasnow is almost “giddy” with the way his arm now feels. Someone is right about this and someone is wrong. We shall find out… soon enough.

AF must have a lot of confidence in Glasnow, because this is the biggest contract he has ever given out to a pitcher. Did I say EVER? Of course, he’s a loser because he has won just a single World Series, eve though he has the best record in baseball during his tenure with the Dodgers.

This article is a vivid example of Dodger hometown hype. If the Padres had traded for Glassie you’d be writing how the Padres got screwed trading for damaged goods and how he’s been a major disappointment.

THIS IS 100% TRUE

Not only that, you disagree in sort of a dickish way

Can Ryan Yarborough be counted on as 4th or 5th starter ? he hasnt been mentioned yet but think he could fit bill if needed.

Patch: my point precisely. If his injuries are pretty much behind him, this could turn out to be a steal at $27MM AAV. It may not wind up that way, but I choose to believe our skilled front office did their proper due diligence. That doesn’t always mean it will work out, but it certainly increases the odds.

Stuff+ is my new favorite pitching stat. Look it up over in Fangraphs. I’m not going to post a link. Every time I do my post lands in jail.

In essence, what it does is use all of the cumulative Statcast data on pitching movement and location and compiles a measure of its effectiveness. From the Fangraphs description:

“Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. A pitcher’s secondary pitches are defined based on their primary fastball — with “primary” defined by usage in an outing — and so are judged by velocity and movement differentials along with raw velocity and movement numbers. The model also includes “axis differential,” a statistic that attempts to describe the difference between the movement expected by spin alone and the observed movement affected by the phenomenon described as seam-shifted wake.

Generally, the model aims to capture the “nastiest” pitches in baseball, using a decision tree-based model to capture the nonlinear relationships that exist across release points, velocities, pitch movement, and more.”

In short, it statistically quantifies the “nastiness” of “filthy stuff” as a means to assess its effectiveness, and gives individual scores to each pitch category – four seam, sinker, cutter, slider, curve, splitter, change, etc.

So, when I look of the Stuff+ score for MLB pitchers from the 2019-2023 seasons, and add a minimum innings value that filters out the relief pitchers and leaves the starters, Glasnow has a Stuff+ score of 134, which is second only to deGrom’s 144. Gerrit Cole was 127, same as Corbin Burnes.

Glasnow has as high a ceiling as anyone in baseball, and he’s coming into the second year of being fully back from TJ surgery, which fixed a lingering injury.

Corbin Burnes’ interview on #FTLive yesterday was interesting to say the least. He made it very clear (to me anyway) that he will be testing free agency after this season. In fact, he’s excited about it. Milwaukee needs to figure this out or they’ll end up with nothing for him.

Yamamoto’s decision should trigger a wave of moves.

If the Dodgers don’t land him, will AF become be more aggressive in pursuing Burnes? Cease is also a possiblity–but it looks like Orioles or Braves have the inside track.

The Brewers may not want to deal Burnes–but they can also be hoping to maximize his value in a sellers’ market.

The “overpay” can be justified if the Dodgers decide that Burnes is the true ace they need.

Glasnow + Margot for Pepiot + DeLuca was not an overpay at all. It was a straight-up transaction in which a wealthy franchise took on contracts from a small market team that prefered cheaper, younger replacements. There was no sweetener, no window dressing.

AF’s history with Willy Adames has always helped fueled the speculation for a Burnes + Adames deal. The offer could start with Lux + Sheehan. Not enough? OK, Busch is in the deal too. And maybe another pitcher, like Grove or Knack. Are the Brewers thin at catcher? The Dodgers aren’t.

Dodgers could end up dealing 4 or even 5 ML-calibre players for an ace and an SS who solidifies the infield defense and brings righty power.

And it wouldn’t be an overpay if it led to the World Series.

Blind Joe, you are absolutely exhausting. I have posted 3 stats for 9 pitchers (R Ray, Bieber, Snell, Alcantara, Burnes, Verlander, DeGrom, Cole, & Glasnow) since 2019 (Glasnow’s 1st season as a starter and as a Ray) twice. The 3 stats are ERA, ERA+, and FIP. All of these guys except Glasnow have won the Cy Young. That kind of says the other 8 are (or have been) Aces.

For ERA, Glasnow is 3rd, ERA+ 4th, FIP tied for 3rd. Cole beats him in ERA & ERA+ but Glasnow is better in FIP. So his numbers place him well in the top half of this illustrious group. Hence my conclusion that if he is able to stay on the field, he is absolutely an Ace. Obviously a big if.

Yesterday you stated he can’t go through the lineup 3 times and that his stuff flattens out. Mark’s numbers above on innings pitched by game and his overall numbers on these 3 stats certainly refute that conclusion. Please at least make your opinions somewhat fact based.

Interesting analysis Mark.

It sounds like Glasnow thinks he pitched with a torn UCL from 2018-2021 before having surgery. Then he came back from TJ surgery and pitched a little better in 2023 with a 3.53 era in the regular season in a career high 120 innings and a 5.40 era in the playoffs. But he will be an ace in 2024 and worth the $30 million salary for the next 5 years. Let’s hope so!

They still need pitching help at least in the starting rotation. That is totally clear. Who will that be? No one at this point knows. What we do know is we got beat by a team we owned during the regular season. Worse than that, they were swept. That needs to change. I can reserve my full take on the trade until I see Glasnow in spring and after the season starts.

Good analysis Mark! It is clear that some folks see risk in the acquisition and subsequent extension due to his injury history; however, Dodger brass evidently see it as an opportunity to capitalize on a pitcher who has posted some elite underlying stats to support what we’ve seen on the field; i.e. last season Glasnow was 7th in the majors in Stuff+, 3rd in FIP and 3rd in K/9 among starters with 100 plus innings.

When you consider that a single undiagnosed injury, which was successfully remediated, was the main culprit behind his oft injured tag, the Dodgers not only acquired a front line starter at a very reasonable cost, but managed to extend him to a deal that is more suitable for a mid-rotation arm than the front line talent he brings to the table, it is easy to understand the upside that the acquisition and extension of Glasnow means to the team.

This deal epitomizes the chess vs checkers analogy. Unfortunately, some folks are simply risk averse. To a fault at that.

America!

You are free to believe what you want. I changed my mind about Ohtani after I found out how they pay him. I was against it. Same with Glasnow.

I disagree with Friedman that Lux is a SS. AF is not perfect, but he is the ONLY Head Baseball Guy who has his name attached to a player’s contract. In other words, he is better than anyone else in the business, and his record says so unless you are so obtuse as to believe that championships are the only way of measuring worth. I can’t help you with that!

I do not think having one injury that was undiagnosed for almost four years and cost him almost five years does not make him injury-prone or brittle. It was the same damn freaking injury, and IF ANYTHING, it shows he can withstand pain. ONE INJURY led to all this.

Just me, but I think the Dodgers would be better off with Yamamoto and a #2 Imanaga who is more reliable than Glasnow plus keeping Pepiot and DeLuca than Yamamoto, Glasnow and Margot.

Agree completely. Add to that the guy seams to be very likeable and should fit in well with the team.

Good morning, everyone. Getting close to Christmas. Nice analysis Mark. The big word though is IF. If Glasnow can stay healthy, if he can maintain that kind of success. He is motivated that one can see and he wants to be here. But they still need at least one more stud pitcher.

With the window narrowing each year with Mookie and Freeman, we need to win now and GlasNOW gives us a better chance!