Why I Changed My Mind on Tyler Glasnow
When I first heard about the Dodger’s possible acquisition of Tyler Glasnow, I was against it. After all, Ryan Pepiot has the potential to be a #4 or #5 starter, and Jonny DeLuca was an intriguing platoon partner for Jason Heyward or James Outman. I also knew that Glasnow, while…
When I first heard about the Dodger’s possible acquisition of Tyler Glasnow, I was against it. After all, Ryan Pepiot has the potential to be a #4 or #5 starter, and Jonny DeLuca was an intriguing platoon partner for Jason Heyward or James Outman. I also knew that Glasnow, while he had filthy stuff, was almost always injured. I said no… based mostly on the statistics.
“Figures Don’t Lie – But Liars Figure!”
Well, maybe, in this case, the figures do lie. In 2018, Glasnow was traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Yampa Bay Rays. Pittsburgh had used him exclusively as a reliever, but the Rays immediately converted him to a starter. In his first start with TB on August 1st, he went three innings, and here is what he pitched in subsequent starts:
- August 7 – 4 IP
- August 12 – 5 IP
- August 18 – 6.2 IP
- August 23 – 5 IP
- August 31 – 7 IP
- September 5 – .2 IP (he could not get loose)
- September 11 – 7 IP
- September 17 – 6 IP
- September 22 – 6 IP
- September 28 – 5.1 IP
In 2019, he appeared to be dominant as he put up a 1.78 ERA through twelve starts. But let’s look at his Game Logs:
- March 30 – 5 IP
- April 5 – 6 IP
- April 10 – 6 IP
- April 16 – 7 IP
- April 21 – 5.1 IP
- April 28 – 6.2 IP
- May 3 – 5 IP
- May 10 – 5.1 IP
However, he was having a difficult time getting loose, and when he did pitch, it was in pain. He was shut down by the Rays after his May 10th start. He came back in September and pitched in four more games:
- September 8 – 2 IP
- September 14 – 3 IP
- September 21 – 3 IP
- September 27 – 4.1 IP
Glasnow ended up pitching seven more innings in the 2019 playoffs. During the three months he was off during the season, he was undergoing MRIs and testing on his arms as well as rehabilitation exercises. In 2020, he came back and pitched in 11 games and averaged 5.1 IP, but he was not nearly as effective as he was in 2019. He also pitched 28.2 innings in the playoffs, including starting the ALCS on two days rest.
In 2021, he started the season like an Ace: At the end of April, he had started six games and averaged 6.2 IP with a 1.67 ERA. In May and into June, he had started eight more games, still averaging 6.2 IKP, but he did have two games where he pitched eight innings and two others where he pitched seven innings. He finished the season June 14 with a 2.66 ERA.
His arm was killing him, and even though they could not find a tear in the UCL, he underwent what is commonly called Tommy John Surgery. He did not have his UCL replaced, but rather, they found that his UCL was “detached from the bone.” No wonder his arm hurt, and it took him over an hour to get loose! He missed half of the 2021 season and most of the 2022 season, although he did come back and pitch 6.2 innings in September and October and five more innings in the playoffs.
Last season (2023), he was on “lighter duty” – which might be similar to what Walker Buehler might be on, but he did pitch 120 innings. He had 11 games where he pitched six or seven innings. He was clearly tiring in August and September, as his ERA went from 3.01 on August 26 to 3.53 at the end of the season.
Tyler Glasnow believes that he hurt his arm in 2018, which was when the UCL detached from the bone. He pitched from 2018 through the end of last season with failed rehab attempts, Tommy John Surgery, and the resultant rehab. Actually, the figures don’t lie! They tell you that he was a damn good pitcher, one continual injury that is now two years behind him. Coming to the team, he wanted to play for as a kid, being healthy (finally), and under the tutelage of the Dodger pitching gurus, I expect him to make a run for the Cy Young Award in 2024 and be the Opening Day Starter unless Yamamoto signs.
Here’s the Lesson:
Don’t fall for just the stats – what’s the “back story?” I will tell you right about now that he might struggle early in the Spring as he learns a new and better way to pitch with the Dodgers, but I do really believe in this guy… partly because he really wants to be a Dodger!
Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca may be nice players and have good careers, but Glasnow can be a real Ace, and that is very little to pay for a pitcher like the 6′ 8″ – 225 pound Tyler Glasnow!
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Discussion (97)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Could they go for the hat trick and sign Imanaga too? Need a lefty, and that would tie up every Japanese Baseball fan as a Dodgers supporter for a generation?
I wouldn’t imagine he’d take too much persuading…..
Wowwww, what a night!
Rams win and are almost in the playoffs and then the Dodgers get Yamamoto. Two great gifts for christmas and they both did not cost me one single dollar!:-)
Now swing a deal for Luzardo and our rotation is the best in baseball. If it not already is.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When George Steinbrenner was alive and owned the Yankees, they were considered the “Evil Empire” on the East Coast because he would outbid and outspend for every free agent on the market. The Dodgers are now have that title of the “Evil Empire” on the West Coast for that same reason. We have the brightest people in baseball to pull off this extradentary successful off season thus far and signed the best recruiter,Shohei Ohtani to attract future star free agents to the Dodgers from all over the world .It’s great to be a Dodger fan and to have owners that want to win. Happy Holidays to all.
I’m stunned!!! The Dodgers did not disappoint this off season. World Series trophy or bust!!!!
Holy Piss Water! YY in Blue. Globalism & Capitalism. Dodger Radio broadcasts will now be in “American,” Spanish, and Japanese. And most importantly, we can ALL quit talking about Glassnow!! Especially me. Fucking A! And let me take this rare moment to officially kiss AF’s ass. Job Well done! He wrangled around the New York franchises and bested the Big Dogs. Betcha Mark is “giddy” as a Valley Girl!!!
Definitely a six-man rotation.
No need to mess with Yamamoto’s success, and a six-man will help limit with workload of Buhler and Glasnow.
MLB scouts have called Yamamoto a dynamic, fearless “gunslinger” pitcher.
Can’t wait to see him pitch in Dodgers Blue.
OK, for now the new rotation goes like this:
Yamamoto, Glasnow, Buhler, Miller, Sheehan–and a lefty to be named later.
Will Shohei’s contract enable an Imanaga deal too?
I’d bet the farm–if I had a farm–the Dodgers will look for a “knockout punch” blockbuster trade this winter.
Burnes, Adames, Luzardo, Cease, Roberts, whatever….
If any of them are in play, ..LAD are willing.. to pay.
Listening to Roggin and Rodney on AM 570 helped me wrap my mind around the fact the Dodgers will actually make money on the life of Ohtanis contract by investing the future money owed to him, which comes with no interest, in other ventures until they ultimately have to pay him. Like they have always said, sometimes Freidman and Co are playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Dodgers planned for this a few years ago, and this year they pulled the big time trigger. Yamamoto won’t break them, they could still make a run at Hader on a one year deal, whose stock has dropped a bit, but is still nasty as hell at the back end of the bullpen. Fasten your seat belts, they aren’t done yet.
AAV perspective: Scherzer & Verlander $43 million; Cole $36 million; Yamamoto $27 million. If he has a solid career with limited injuries it will end up being a hell of a deal.
Damn.
Let me put this news into some sort of logical context.
Holy fuck nut, ass-sorted and otherwise unpredictably shit storm kinda happening that people predicted.
Ya, this is why I don’t bet on sports.
That’s from a “source” to MLB.com Mark Feinsand–which seems a lot more solid than the Ohtani-to-Toronto stuff. And $325 million is yet more crazy money. Mindboggling. Dodgers have made a $1.1 billion commitment in the last few days to secure 3 players. Suddenly it seems like Shohei structured his deal to bring his buddy along. Which will piss off a lot owners and maybe some players too.
That’s $325 million for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the MLB. He’s dominated Japanese hitters–but he’s only faced MLB-level hitters in exhibition-like settings. I think Yamamoto will be really good, he’ll be a ace… but probably not nearly as dominant as he was in Japan.
But holy moly. The Dodgers are really going all-in on their global marketing plan….Wow.
OK… Back to baseball.
The Dodgers should still pursue Burnes. He’s a proven ace–not a pitcher who earned his spurs in a lesser league. He’s durable–and we can’t be sure about Glasnow.
Burnes, a Boras client, has made it clear that he has no interest in signing an extension. That could change, but it also shouldn’t matter. Renting Burnes for the 2024 season works for the Dodgers because Ohtani is waiting in the wings, expected to assume his own ace slot in the six-man rotation of 2025.
Maybe Burnes, a Californian, will love playing for the Dodgers and want to stay, If not, vaya con dios. Or the Japanese equivalent.
Or maybe the Dodgers should skip Burnes and call on Miami about the Jesus Lizard….
What crazy off season so far!! Don’t think we’re done
I’m on Cloud 9 Million!!! Ohtani, now Yamamoto. The Dodgers aren’t messin’ around!!
And guess what? Imanaga and Giolito are still in play, and AF still has plenty of chips to make a blockbuster deal this winter.
Wow, just wow!!
That’s 1 billion dollars just for him and OHTANI.
Hell yes! Yamamoto a Dodger
Reports that we landed the 2nd Japanese star. WOW!!!!
WE GOT HIM!!!
12 YEARS, 325MIL BABY!!
Well, I for one am going to have to wait and see. I have read all the pros and cons, and it seems to me many fans are split right down the middle on the trade but most also agree we need more. I give a rat’s ass about stats. I have always been an eye test type of guy. I like to see what they can do on the field. That stats tell one side of the story. My eyes tell me the rest.
SF Giants have been notified they are out of the Yamamoto sweepstakes. That’s great news for the Dodgers as it had been reported the Giants were prepared to outbid everyone to land Yamamoto.
Should have a final decision in a day or two. Yankees or Dodgers?
This entire post could have been encapsulated into:
I think I’d prefer having mediocre Ace minus pitchers (without DeGrom like stuff) like Logan Webb or Zac Gallen to Glassnow. Better chance they’ll stay in the field.
And we would all be better off.
It is not loyalty Blind Joe, it is about finding and capitalizing on opportunities. Stats are resources utilized to quantify positions. A scout confirming or negating an attribute identified during a scouting session; hence, the eye test. In the case of Glasnow, the stats support the eye test (what you see). He is a pitcher who possesses elite pitch ability. The only knock has been his ability to stay on the field. When you look at the underlying problem and discover that his issue was primarily linked to an undiagnosed condition that has been surgically corrected, you can reasonably weigh the risk. In addition, when you put that to the test with the available data, sample size of 120 innings, LAD brass concluded the benefit superseded the risk.
Once upon time the state of baseball could be split between two camps: 1) those that followed stats and 2) those who deferred to the proverbial gut instinct. While I am not privy to insider information, given the amount of data analysts that MLB clubs are hiring these days, that belief seems to be a thing of the past. Teams still employ scouts and utilize stats simultaneously.
I don’t think anyone is saying Glasnow is great based stats alone. Merely, that the stats support what we have identified with the eye test. He stuff is filthy!
I think Glasnow will be fine. First line pitcher. Injuries behind him.
There is always risk.
No way I’m trading Sheehan or Lux for that matter.
There is no guarantee you could re-sign Burnes in 2026. You could trade some top prospects and get nothing except one year of service.
I honestly don’t get Adames. Rather have Lux.
The Dodgers had Seager and Turner. Allowed Corey to walk, never made an offer to Trea.
So now they have Lux. Let him play.
Focus on pitching. Don’t get sidetracked.
As per Noah Camras of Dodgers Nation:
“A source confirmed that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are expected to be at Sofi Stadium tonight for the Rams vs. Saints game.”
First Shohei defers most of his salary for 10 years, then he becomes their best recruiter.
This guy is truly a team player.