When I first heard about the Dodger’s possible acquisition of Tyler Glasnow, I was against it. After all, Ryan Pepiot has the potential to be a #4 or #5 starter, and Jonny DeLuca was an intriguing platoon partner for Jason Heyward or James Outman. I also knew that Glasnow, while he had filthy stuff, was almost always injured. I said no… based mostly on the statistics.
“Figures Don’t Lie – But Liars Figure!”
Well, maybe, in this case, the figures do lie. In 2018, Glasnow was traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Yampa Bay Rays. Pittsburgh had used him exclusively as a reliever, but the Rays immediately converted him to a starter. In his first start with TB on August 1st, he went three innings, and here is what he pitched in subsequent starts:
- August 7 – 4 IP
- August 12 – 5 IP
- August 18 – 6.2 IP
- August 23 – 5 IP
- August 31 – 7 IP
- September 5 – .2 IP (he could not get loose)
- September 11 – 7 IP
- September 17 – 6 IP
- September 22 – 6 IP
- September 28 – 5.1 IP
In 2019, he appeared to be dominant as he put up a 1.78 ERA through twelve starts. But let’s look at his Game Logs:
- March 30 – 5 IP
- April 5 – 6 IP
- April 10 – 6 IP
- April 16 – 7 IP
- April 21 – 5.1 IP
- April 28 – 6.2 IP
- May 3 – 5 IP
- May 10 – 5.1 IP
However, he was having a difficult time getting loose, and when he did pitch, it was in pain. He was shut down by the Rays after his May 10th start. He came back in September and pitched in four more games:
- September 8 – 2 IP
- September 14 – 3 IP
- September 21 – 3 IP
- September 27 – 4.1 IP
Glasnow ended up pitching seven more innings in the 2019 playoffs. During the three months he was off during the season, he was undergoing MRIs and testing on his arms as well as rehabilitation exercises. In 2020, he came back and pitched in 11 games and averaged 5.1 IP, but he was not nearly as effective as he was in 2019. He also pitched 28.2 innings in the playoffs, including starting the ALCS on two days rest.
In 2021, he started the season like an Ace: At the end of April, he had started six games and averaged 6.2 IP with a 1.67 ERA. In May and into June, he had started eight more games, still averaging 6.2 IKP, but he did have two games where he pitched eight innings and two others where he pitched seven innings. He finished the season June 14 with a 2.66 ERA.
His arm was killing him, and even though they could not find a tear in the UCL, he underwent what is commonly called Tommy John Surgery. He did not have his UCL replaced, but rather, they found that his UCL was “detached from the bone.” No wonder his arm hurt, and it took him over an hour to get loose! He missed half of the 2021 season and most of the 2022 season, although he did come back and pitch 6.2 innings in September and October and five more innings in the playoffs.
Last season (2023), he was on “lighter duty” – which might be similar to what Walker Buehler might be on, but he did pitch 120 innings. He had 11 games where he pitched six or seven innings. He was clearly tiring in August and September, as his ERA went from 3.01 on August 26 to 3.53 at the end of the season.
Tyler Glasnow believes that he hurt his arm in 2018, which was when the UCL detached from the bone. He pitched from 2018 through the end of last season with failed rehab attempts, Tommy John Surgery, and the resultant rehab. Actually, the figures don’t lie! They tell you that he was a damn good pitcher, one continual injury that is now two years behind him. Coming to the team, he wanted to play for as a kid, being healthy (finally), and under the tutelage of the Dodger pitching gurus, I expect him to make a run for the Cy Young Award in 2024 and be the Opening Day Starter unless Yamamoto signs.
Here’s the Lesson:
Don’t fall for just the stats – what’s the “back story?” I will tell you right about now that he might struggle early in the Spring as he learns a new and better way to pitch with the Dodgers, but I do really believe in this guy… partly because he really wants to be a Dodger!
Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca may be nice players and have good careers, but Glasnow can be a real Ace, and that is very little to pay for a pitcher like the 6′ 8″ – 225 pound Tyler Glasnow!
Discussion (43)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Could they go for the hat trick and sign Imanaga too? Need a lefty, and that would tie up every Japanese Baseball fan as a Dodgers supporter for a generation?
I wouldn’t imagine he’d take too much persuading…..
Wowwww, what a night!
Rams win and are almost in the playoffs and then the Dodgers get Yamamoto. Two great gifts for christmas and they both did not cost me one single dollar!:-)
Now swing a deal for Luzardo and our rotation is the best in baseball. If it not already is.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When George Steinbrenner was alive and owned the Yankees, they were considered the “Evil Empire” on the East Coast because he would outbid and outspend for every free agent on the market. The Dodgers are now have that title of the “Evil Empire” on the West Coast for that same reason. We have the brightest people in baseball to pull off this extradentary successful off season thus far and signed the best recruiter,Shohei Ohtani to attract future star free agents to the Dodgers from all over the world .It’s great to be a Dodger fan and to have owners that want to win. Happy Holidays to all.
I’m stunned!!! The Dodgers did not disappoint this off season. World Series trophy or bust!!!!
Holy Piss Water! YY in Blue. Globalism & Capitalism. Dodger Radio broadcasts will now be in “American,” Spanish, and Japanese. And most importantly, we can ALL quit talking about Glassnow!! Especially me. Fucking A! And let me take this rare moment to officially kiss AF’s ass. Job Well done! He wrangled around the New York franchises and bested the Big Dogs. Betcha Mark is “giddy” as a Valley Girl!!!
Definitely a six-man rotation.
No need to mess with Yamamoto’s success, and a six-man will help limit with workload of Buhler and Glasnow.
MLB scouts have called Yamamoto a dynamic, fearless “gunslinger” pitcher.
Can’t wait to see him pitch in Dodgers Blue.
OK, for now the new rotation goes like this:
Yamamoto, Glasnow, Buhler, Miller, Sheehan–and a lefty to be named later.
Will Shohei’s contract enable an Imanaga deal too?
I’d bet the farm–if I had a farm–the Dodgers will look for a “knockout punch” blockbuster trade this winter.
Burnes, Adames, Luzardo, Cease, Roberts, whatever….
If any of them are in play, ..LAD are willing.. to pay.
Listening to Roggin and Rodney on AM 570 helped me wrap my mind around the fact the Dodgers will actually make money on the life of Ohtanis contract by investing the future money owed to him, which comes with no interest, in other ventures until they ultimately have to pay him. Like they have always said, sometimes Freidman and Co are playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Dodgers planned for this a few years ago, and this year they pulled the big time trigger. Yamamoto won’t break them, they could still make a run at Hader on a one year deal, whose stock has dropped a bit, but is still nasty as hell at the back end of the bullpen. Fasten your seat belts, they aren’t done yet.
AAV perspective: Scherzer & Verlander $43 million; Cole $36 million; Yamamoto $27 million. If he has a solid career with limited injuries it will end up being a hell of a deal.
Damn.
Let me put this news into some sort of logical context.
Holy fuck nut, ass-sorted and otherwise unpredictably shit storm kinda happening that people predicted.
Ya, this is why I don’t bet on sports.
That’s from a “source” to MLB.com Mark Feinsand–which seems a lot more solid than the Ohtani-to-Toronto stuff. And $325 million is yet more crazy money. Mindboggling. Dodgers have made a $1.1 billion commitment in the last few days to secure 3 players. Suddenly it seems like Shohei structured his deal to bring his buddy along. Which will piss off a lot owners and maybe some players too.
That’s $325 million for a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the MLB. He’s dominated Japanese hitters–but he’s only faced MLB-level hitters in exhibition-like settings. I think Yamamoto will be really good, he’ll be a ace… but probably not nearly as dominant as he was in Japan.
But holy moly. The Dodgers are really going all-in on their global marketing plan….Wow.
OK… Back to baseball.
The Dodgers should still pursue Burnes. He’s a proven ace–not a pitcher who earned his spurs in a lesser league. He’s durable–and we can’t be sure about Glasnow.
Burnes, a Boras client, has made it clear that he has no interest in signing an extension. That could change, but it also shouldn’t matter. Renting Burnes for the 2024 season works for the Dodgers because Ohtani is waiting in the wings, expected to assume his own ace slot in the six-man rotation of 2025.
Maybe Burnes, a Californian, will love playing for the Dodgers and want to stay, If not, vaya con dios. Or the Japanese equivalent.
Or maybe the Dodgers should skip Burnes and call on Miami about the Jesus Lizard….
What crazy off season so far!! Don’t think we’re done
I’m on Cloud 9 Million!!! Ohtani, now Yamamoto. The Dodgers aren’t messin’ around!!
And guess what? Imanaga and Giolito are still in play, and AF still has plenty of chips to make a blockbuster deal this winter.
Wow, just wow!!
That’s 1 billion dollars just for him and OHTANI.
Hell yes! Yamamoto a Dodger
Reports that we landed the 2nd Japanese star. WOW!!!!
WE GOT HIM!!!
12 YEARS, 325MIL BABY!!
Well, I for one am going to have to wait and see. I have read all the pros and cons, and it seems to me many fans are split right down the middle on the trade but most also agree we need more. I give a rat’s ass about stats. I have always been an eye test type of guy. I like to see what they can do on the field. That stats tell one side of the story. My eyes tell me the rest.
SF Giants have been notified they are out of the Yamamoto sweepstakes. That’s great news for the Dodgers as it had been reported the Giants were prepared to outbid everyone to land Yamamoto.
Should have a final decision in a day or two. Yankees or Dodgers?
This entire post could have been encapsulated into:
I think I’d prefer having mediocre Ace minus pitchers (without DeGrom like stuff) like Logan Webb or Zac Gallen to Glassnow. Better chance they’ll stay in the field.
And we would all be better off.
It is not loyalty Blind Joe, it is about finding and capitalizing on opportunities. Stats are resources utilized to quantify positions. A scout confirming or negating an attribute identified during a scouting session; hence, the eye test. In the case of Glasnow, the stats support the eye test (what you see). He is a pitcher who possesses elite pitch ability. The only knock has been his ability to stay on the field. When you look at the underlying problem and discover that his issue was primarily linked to an undiagnosed condition that has been surgically corrected, you can reasonably weigh the risk. In addition, when you put that to the test with the available data, sample size of 120 innings, LAD brass concluded the benefit superseded the risk.
Once upon time the state of baseball could be split between two camps: 1) those that followed stats and 2) those who deferred to the proverbial gut instinct. While I am not privy to insider information, given the amount of data analysts that MLB clubs are hiring these days, that belief seems to be a thing of the past. Teams still employ scouts and utilize stats simultaneously.
I don’t think anyone is saying Glasnow is great based stats alone. Merely, that the stats support what we have identified with the eye test. He stuff is filthy!
I think Glasnow will be fine. First line pitcher. Injuries behind him.
There is always risk.
No way I’m trading Sheehan or Lux for that matter.
There is no guarantee you could re-sign Burnes in 2026. You could trade some top prospects and get nothing except one year of service.
I honestly don’t get Adames. Rather have Lux.
The Dodgers had Seager and Turner. Allowed Corey to walk, never made an offer to Trea.
So now they have Lux. Let him play.
Focus on pitching. Don’t get sidetracked.
As per Noah Camras of Dodgers Nation:
“A source confirmed that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are expected to be at Sofi Stadium tonight for the Rams vs. Saints game.”
First Shohei defers most of his salary for 10 years, then he becomes their best recruiter.
This guy is truly a team player.
You arrived at your opinion “after watching him pitch for years with the same injury.” … is what it should have said. It is not often that a player loses large portions of several seasons to the same injury before it is diagnosed and fixed. However, I have pitched enough to know how hard it is to throw when you can’t get loose, or your arm hurts. Glasnow is almost “giddy” with the way his arm now feels. Someone is right about this and someone is wrong. We shall find out… soon enough.
AF must have a lot of confidence in Glasnow, because this is the biggest contract he has ever given out to a pitcher. Did I say EVER? Of course, he’s a loser because he has won just a single World Series, eve though he has the best record in baseball during his tenure with the Dodgers.
This article is a vivid example of Dodger hometown hype. If the Padres had traded for Glassie you’d be writing how the Padres got screwed trading for damaged goods and how he’s been a major disappointment.
THIS IS 100% TRUE
Not only that, you disagree in sort of a dickish way
Can Ryan Yarborough be counted on as 4th or 5th starter ? he hasnt been mentioned yet but think he could fit bill if needed.
Patch: my point precisely. If his injuries are pretty much behind him, this could turn out to be a steal at $27MM AAV. It may not wind up that way, but I choose to believe our skilled front office did their proper due diligence. That doesn’t always mean it will work out, but it certainly increases the odds.
Stuff+ is my new favorite pitching stat. Look it up over in Fangraphs. I’m not going to post a link. Every time I do my post lands in jail.
In essence, what it does is use all of the cumulative Statcast data on pitching movement and location and compiles a measure of its effectiveness. From the Fangraphs description:
“Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. A pitcher’s secondary pitches are defined based on their primary fastball — with “primary” defined by usage in an outing — and so are judged by velocity and movement differentials along with raw velocity and movement numbers. The model also includes “axis differential,” a statistic that attempts to describe the difference between the movement expected by spin alone and the observed movement affected by the phenomenon described as seam-shifted wake.
Generally, the model aims to capture the “nastiest” pitches in baseball, using a decision tree-based model to capture the nonlinear relationships that exist across release points, velocities, pitch movement, and more.”
In short, it statistically quantifies the “nastiness” of “filthy stuff” as a means to assess its effectiveness, and gives individual scores to each pitch category – four seam, sinker, cutter, slider, curve, splitter, change, etc.
So, when I look of the Stuff+ score for MLB pitchers from the 2019-2023 seasons, and add a minimum innings value that filters out the relief pitchers and leaves the starters, Glasnow has a Stuff+ score of 134, which is second only to deGrom’s 144. Gerrit Cole was 127, same as Corbin Burnes.
Glasnow has as high a ceiling as anyone in baseball, and he’s coming into the second year of being fully back from TJ surgery, which fixed a lingering injury.
Corbin Burnes’ interview on #FTLive yesterday was interesting to say the least. He made it very clear (to me anyway) that he will be testing free agency after this season. In fact, he’s excited about it. Milwaukee needs to figure this out or they’ll end up with nothing for him.
Yamamoto’s decision should trigger a wave of moves.
If the Dodgers don’t land him, will AF become be more aggressive in pursuing Burnes? Cease is also a possiblity–but it looks like Orioles or Braves have the inside track.
The Brewers may not want to deal Burnes–but they can also be hoping to maximize his value in a sellers’ market.
The “overpay” can be justified if the Dodgers decide that Burnes is the true ace they need.
Glasnow + Margot for Pepiot + DeLuca was not an overpay at all. It was a straight-up transaction in which a wealthy franchise took on contracts from a small market team that prefered cheaper, younger replacements. There was no sweetener, no window dressing.
AF’s history with Willy Adames has always helped fueled the speculation for a Burnes + Adames deal. The offer could start with Lux + Sheehan. Not enough? OK, Busch is in the deal too. And maybe another pitcher, like Grove or Knack. Are the Brewers thin at catcher? The Dodgers aren’t.
Dodgers could end up dealing 4 or even 5 ML-calibre players for an ace and an SS who solidifies the infield defense and brings righty power.
And it wouldn’t be an overpay if it led to the World Series.
Blind Joe, you are absolutely exhausting. I have posted 3 stats for 9 pitchers (R Ray, Bieber, Snell, Alcantara, Burnes, Verlander, DeGrom, Cole, & Glasnow) since 2019 (Glasnow’s 1st season as a starter and as a Ray) twice. The 3 stats are ERA, ERA+, and FIP. All of these guys except Glasnow have won the Cy Young. That kind of says the other 8 are (or have been) Aces.
For ERA, Glasnow is 3rd, ERA+ 4th, FIP tied for 3rd. Cole beats him in ERA & ERA+ but Glasnow is better in FIP. So his numbers place him well in the top half of this illustrious group. Hence my conclusion that if he is able to stay on the field, he is absolutely an Ace. Obviously a big if.
Yesterday you stated he can’t go through the lineup 3 times and that his stuff flattens out. Mark’s numbers above on innings pitched by game and his overall numbers on these 3 stats certainly refute that conclusion. Please at least make your opinions somewhat fact based.
Interesting analysis Mark.
It sounds like Glasnow thinks he pitched with a torn UCL from 2018-2021 before having surgery. Then he came back from TJ surgery and pitched a little better in 2023 with a 3.53 era in the regular season in a career high 120 innings and a 5.40 era in the playoffs. But he will be an ace in 2024 and worth the $30 million salary for the next 5 years. Let’s hope so!
They still need pitching help at least in the starting rotation. That is totally clear. Who will that be? No one at this point knows. What we do know is we got beat by a team we owned during the regular season. Worse than that, they were swept. That needs to change. I can reserve my full take on the trade until I see Glasnow in spring and after the season starts.
Good analysis Mark! It is clear that some folks see risk in the acquisition and subsequent extension due to his injury history; however, Dodger brass evidently see it as an opportunity to capitalize on a pitcher who has posted some elite underlying stats to support what we’ve seen on the field; i.e. last season Glasnow was 7th in the majors in Stuff+, 3rd in FIP and 3rd in K/9 among starters with 100 plus innings.
When you consider that a single undiagnosed injury, which was successfully remediated, was the main culprit behind his oft injured tag, the Dodgers not only acquired a front line starter at a very reasonable cost, but managed to extend him to a deal that is more suitable for a mid-rotation arm than the front line talent he brings to the table, it is easy to understand the upside that the acquisition and extension of Glasnow means to the team.
This deal epitomizes the chess vs checkers analogy. Unfortunately, some folks are simply risk averse. To a fault at that.
America!
You are free to believe what you want. I changed my mind about Ohtani after I found out how they pay him. I was against it. Same with Glasnow.
I disagree with Friedman that Lux is a SS. AF is not perfect, but he is the ONLY Head Baseball Guy who has his name attached to a player’s contract. In other words, he is better than anyone else in the business, and his record says so unless you are so obtuse as to believe that championships are the only way of measuring worth. I can’t help you with that!
I do not think having one injury that was undiagnosed for almost four years and cost him almost five years does not make him injury-prone or brittle. It was the same damn freaking injury, and IF ANYTHING, it shows he can withstand pain. ONE INJURY led to all this.
Just me, but I think the Dodgers would be better off with Yamamoto and a #2 Imanaga who is more reliable than Glasnow plus keeping Pepiot and DeLuca than Yamamoto, Glasnow and Margot.
Agree completely. Add to that the guy seams to be very likeable and should fit in well with the team.
Good morning, everyone. Getting close to Christmas. Nice analysis Mark. The big word though is IF. If Glasnow can stay healthy, if he can maintain that kind of success. He is motivated that one can see and he wants to be here. But they still need at least one more stud pitcher.
With the window narrowing each year with Mookie and Freeman, we need to win now and GlasNOW gives us a better chance!