Reality Check
We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The…
We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The Yankees of 2023 were a prime example of that. Their signing of Gerrit Cole continues to be outstanding, but the acquisition of Carlos Rodon has been a dud (so far). They were a team that was expected to go deep into the playoffs, but they crashed and burned.
Corbin Burnes could be the ace the Dodgers covet, or his arm may need the dreaded Tommy John. To a large degree, player acquisition is a crapshoot. You scout, you analyze, you do a physical, and you roll the dice! Yamamoto may be an Ace… or another player who failed to live up to his press clippings. Shohei Ohtani is a man who puts on his pants the same as anyone… and he will be 30 years old on July 5th. Players generally decline in their 30s, but who can guarantee anything?
Signing Ohtani is a baseball decision, not a marketing decision. The Dodgers brand is more known worldwide than practically any other sports team. Andrew Friedman is charged to win, not market, and he will make the final decision. If Shohei Ohtani becomes a Dodger, it is because they believe he will improve the team.
JP Hoornstra said that “a lot of old-time baseball fans forget that the NL Winner no longer plays the AL Winner for the World Series. It’s more of a crapshoot than it is a Championship.” That’s the reality of the baseball world we live in.
Since 2017, here is the record and result of the Dodgers by year:
- 2017 – 104 Wins – Lost the World Series to the Cheaters
- 2018 – 92 Wins – Lost to the Red Sox (a better team)
- 2019 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLDS to the Nats who were red-hot at the end of the season
- 2020 – 60 Wins – Won the World Series in the longest playoff ever (were on pace to win 116 games)
- 2021 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLCS to the World Series Winners – Atlanta Braves
- 2022 – 111 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
- 2023 – 100 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
Of course, many fans talk about how Roberts can’t manage, and Friedman cannot build a team that wins in the playoffs. Both statement brand the sayers of them as delusional morons. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and you need outstanding pitching to win… except the Rangers and the Diamondbacks, who had a 4.26 and 4.48 team ERA for the postseason. That was the worst in recent history! The Dodgers starting pitching was bad last year, but they had a 4.06 ERA – go figure! Every team that won 100 was bounced from the playoffs in short order.
The Dodgers could sign Ohtani and a bunch of other players for a total of $200 Million at the Winter Meetings and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs, or they could stand pat and win the World Series. I am not saying that actually could happen, but it could! No matter what your mouth says – it’s still a crapshoot! Still, you have to try and put yourself in the best position to win.
Dave Roberts has the best winning percentage of any MLB Manager – EVER! Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers have the best record of any team… by far! Damn I wish they were perfect, and this was a perfect world – It is not!
It’s somewhat of a crapshoot after the regular season, and those are the rules we have to play under. Still, the Dodgers will try and get a lot better! They will spend upward of $100 Million in doing so. If forced to bet… I would bet that Shohei Ohtani will not be a Dodger. I am not a hater – Just a Realist!
Here we go!
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Discussion (145)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Bottom line is this: no matter if we pay Shohei $50mil a year or $15 mil a year, and no matter if he hits .280 with 30hr and 90rbi, or whether he hits .300 with 50hr/130rbi, we’ll be be deciding if he was worth it in October 2024.
Carry us in October, and nobody will care what he got paid or how he did in July vs the Pirates. Suck in October (like Mookie and Freddie and Kershaw), and we’ll say he was a waste of time even if he wins unanimous NL MVP in 2024.
That will be the case with Kelly, Heyward, Yamamoto, Burnes, Adames, Giolito, Hoskins, or anyone else we’ve all discussed the past few weeks. How they do in October (to be determined) will decide if any new player was worth it. This is the reality of this current Dodger run. October is all that matters now.
Okay, the fantasy is over and I’m lowering my expectations.
That’s after reading an LA Times story yesterday by Jack Harris who warned there is a possibility the Dodgers might miss out on Ohtani and Yamamoto. He pointed out the Dodgers again fell short in the bidding for Aaron Nola, just like other free agent pursuits in the past. Just like Cole, Seager and Harper. Now I always thought Nola wanted to stay in Philly, but the Dodgers again fell short in the bidding. Hey, we’re the Dodgers. It’s what we do.
Maybe this year will be different, but probably not.
No matter the Dodgers will land Lucas Giolito or Flaherty. No Snell or Montgomery. Honestly I don’t want them to sign either one. Maybe Friedman makes a trade for Dylan Cease. Or another starter.
No big deal. The Dodgers will still win a hundred games and the NL West. They will use Walker Buehler and their young pitchers and free agent pitching projects to fill the stadium with nearly four million fans. Signing JD Martinez will solve the DH. They have the hitters and the bullpen, all they really need is to land Cease and have a couple of the projects regain form.
Now Friedman might come out of the chute swinging and nail a big deal or two. He pointed out a lot of things are beginning to come together. Sounds like trade jargon. Or the meeting with Shohei went well. Some of this could happen in Nashville or a few days later, he indicated.
But don’t fret the Dodgers will still be good, likely very good. But probably without signing the Unicorn or the best Japanese pitcher. Such is life in LA, lots of hype, expectations and a letdown.
good morning! i , like thousands of other dodger fans wake up today knowing just as much today as we did this time last week! it’s probably a 40 percent chance AF signs ohthani. it could all depend on how. badly he wants to be a dodger. if he doesn’t , i hope he resigns with the angels or the blue jays. keep him out of the NL! a fan for 60 years earns my right to wish! if not ohthani then who? i still say hoskins is a good choice. he doesn’t have to play a position, he can dh . i also believe either vargas or busch ends up traded this week. i guess the best option would be to keep vargas. i think he can be a better 3rd baseman than Busch. if muncy gets injured. But! if mookie stays in right busch could be a really good 2nd baseman, especially since his arm doesn’t seem to be as strong as vargas’s. Adamas is interesting at short, but that .214 average last year! that would give them 2 players on the left side of the infield with sub .225 averages! i know , Max is an on base “machine “ . but still a concern. oh well, just my opinions and they don’t mean squat! next few days will be exciting for some teams, and not so much for others. we cou be pirates, rockies, tigers, oakland, or royals fans. no disrespect meant but they ain’t spending! this time next week,we’ll be overjoyed, slightly satisfied, or plain disappointed! but opening day we’ll be in our dodger blue cheering them on. which i plan to do till i no longer can! baseball is the greatest game on earth! oh by the way, i told y’all few weeks ago to beware of Alabama. got a sneaky suspicion they get bumped up into the playoffs! probably not right , but it might happen. college basketball really heating up! great , can’t stand NBA anymore! a Bronco fan, (not much of Russ Wilson fan) so that’s kind of neat watching Sean Payton do his thing. hope everyone has a great week! going to Charlotte tomorrow for stem cell injections on my knee! can’t wait! still playing basketball, and doctor said in a few weeks i’m gonna be running around again!
Carlos Rodon was a bad Yankee signing. It was well known he had an injury history before he was signed. The Yankees will suffer with his contract for 6 more years. Brian Cashman has made numerous mistakes signing pitchers except Gerrit Cole.
I don’t agree that Andrew will have the final decision in Ohtoni. it will be the ownership group’s final decision and for how long and how much. Ohtoni is all about Return on Investment and his immense talent. Look for opt outs in the contract when officially signed.