I heard some commentators on MLB.Radio suggesting that the Dodgers may hit Ohtani with a deal like this:
2023: $45 Million
2024: $50 Million as long as he pitched a certain number of innings
2025: $55 Million with a higher number of innings and an opt-out
You could continue on this trajectory for up to eight years if Ohtani met the requisite innings pitched.
I could go for that. I am not against Ohtani – I am against boat anchor contracts. I would also like to see the contract end before Shohei is 40. I can dig that kind of deal, but Andrew Friedman will not just hand out a ten-year $500 Million deal without some milestone objectives to be met.
I have always been down with Lucas Giolito as he would be inexpensive, and the Dodgers could help him re-invent himself. $2 Years/$26 Million, anyone? Prior might be able to do for him what he did for Tyler Anderson. Lucas might be a solid #2.
I also listened to JP Hoornstra on MLB yesterday, and he said anyone who thinks Lux will be the everyday SS is not connected to reality. He thinks (as the team is situated now) that Mookie will play a lot of SS. I also think Rojas will be traded. There is no question that he is the best defensive SS on the team, but his hitting keeps him out. Someone will want him as a “bridge.” I would sign Kike for a 2-year/$20 Million deal (CT3 gets $2-13 Million). Kike can be the RH platoon in RF or CF (if needed).
If the Dodgers sign Giolioto, Ohtani, and Yamamoto, there is not much more room to sign anyone. They need a lefty, and with some rehabbing pitchers, I would think a six-man rotation makes sense:
- Buehler
- Yamamoto
- Gioloto
- Miller
- Pepiot
- Ryu – I think he has one good season left at 20-25 starts. Sheehan or Stone is at the ready.
The above rotation would take some of the innings off of Buehler in his return season and Yamamoto, who is used to a six-man rotation. It also helps Ryu. I think it is an option. Ryu would cost about $8-10 MM on a one-year deal.
With the signing of the above players, the youth HAS to deliver. I would give Hunter Feduccia EVERY opportunity to take the backup catcher’s job. See who competes for the job at the highest level in Spring Training – Barnes or Feduccia.
This could be the lineup:
- C- Smith
- 1B – Freeman
- 2B – Betts/Busch
- SS – Lux/Betts
- 3B – Muncy
- LF – Vargas
- CF- Outman/Taylor
- RF – Heyward/DeLuca or Hernandez
- DH Ohtani
Vargas, Busch, DeLuca, and Outman are the youthful keys. Andy Pages may also be a factor (I am eager to see what he looks like – did he maintain his weight loss? He was too thick to play the outfield in MLB in 2022). Vargas will get his chance to play every day… and he deserves it. The organization still believes in Vargas and Busch as everyday players. They are different players, however. Busch is more like Max Muncy, while Vargas is more like a RH Freddie Freeman. The organization puts all of Vargas’s struggles on his two broken fingers in 2023.
It is claimed that they were not changing his swing, but Miguel changed it unknowingly to avoid the pain. I hope the bad habits can be overcome. LF seems to be his most likely position, especially if Busch platoons with Mookie at 2B. Of course, no one knows what the Dodgers are thinking.
All of the above will happen… or it won’t!
I may be telling you lies!
Discussion (24)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Agree with Bear on his post summarizing 40 man roster. I think they sign Ohtani. Too much smoke not to be a fire. There are valid on the field risks but his value to the business side is not a risk. They will not sign two FA who cost them draft picks and international money if history is any indication. They need a left hander in the rotation. I don’t think Yarborough is the answer there so I think they sign Imanoga and trade for Burnes or Cease. Fallback is a non QO signing like Giolito . With Ohtani, Freeman Betts and to a lesser degree Muncy and Smith, you can afford to give Lux, DeLuca, Vargas, and Busch enough at bats. Feduccia v. Barnes is a battle they can have in spring training but Feduccia will have to knock him out not win on a decision, to use a boxing analogy. The bullpen will look similar with some holdovers, guys returning from injury and hopefully a guy like Hurt given a chance to be a multi inning reliever role.
The Dodgers will have two acquisitions like Imanoga and Burnes plus Buehler and three young pitchers that are not traded – Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan for example. Six man rotation makes sense in this situation with Buehler coming off 2nd Tommy John and young pitchers still building up their innings pitched year over year. In fact, Yarbrough makes sense as a piggy back for Buehler early on.
Would not block young hitters by signing Hoskins or any other veteran bats. If the young bats don’t provide enough by All Star break there will be ways to acquire solutions.
Big FAs and perhaps a big trade.
Yes, this year it seems anything is possible.
For the record, I bet Heyward’s production falls to below .800 OPS. More like .775-.790 OPS, he’s aging. Same goes for Martinez, but still above .800 OPS, he’s aging. I don’t want to get into any of the rest of the slashline.
The first 2 relevant signings have been Heyward and Kelly. Something tells me it’s stay the course on the same philosophy.
Let us be really honest for a minute. First, the Dodgers roster as it stands right now is at 39. Heyward is not officially on the roster right now. The just made an agreement with Joe Kelly making him # 41. He has to pass his physical first and that can take a few days. The meetings begin on Monday, but the GM’s and players and agents will begin coming in tomorrow. So, in order to add any free agents, the Dodgers have to first make room on the roster. This can be accomplished by trading multiple players and getting back one. It can be accomplished by a player being DFA’d. No one can be placed on the IL until they report to spring training.
Here are the names on the official roster, P Almonte, Buehler, Ferguson, Feyereisen, Frasso, Gonsolin, Gonzalez, Graterol, Grove, Hudson, Hurt Knack, May, Miller, Pepiot, Phillips, Sheehan, Stone, Treinen, Vanasco, Varland, Vesia, Yarbrough. That is 23 pitchers. 4 catchers, Smith, Barnes, Feduccia, Cartaya. 8 infielders, Busch, Freeman, Lux, Muncy Rojas, Taylor, Vargas and Vivas, and 4 outfielders. Betts Deluca, Outman and Pages. That is 39.
Technically they could sign Ohtani or any other free agent and make roster space after the physicals. I think the most vulnerable players are Almonte, Ferguson, Gonzalez, Hudson, Varland and Yarbrough. Any one of those guys could be traded or DFA’d. Cartaya, Busch and Vargas are likely targets of other teams in trade, and maybe even Lux.
But no one has a clue which direction AF is going to go. I think there will be a couple of surprises and maybe even some disappointment when players fans might feel they should sign, or trade for go somewhere else. I do know this, AF is not going to sign two players who have the QO attached. So if he signs Ohtani, forget about Snell, Hader, Bellinger, or any of the other players who got the QO because AF does not like giving up draft choices and it doesn’t matter which free agent he signs with a QO< he is going to lose his second and fifth pick and 1 mil in international signing money.
Also, don’t assume that Feduccia will hit.
I let him compete for a job in Spring Training, but Barnes has the confidence of every pitcher on the staff.
You don’t just cut Barnes and hand the job to Feduccia.
The Dodgers will not trade for a closer.
Why?
Because they have Phillips and several others.
That’s what is called “felony stupid.”
Why trade prospects for pitchers you already have?
Hader is trash anyway!
Well, you can forget the not platooning idea. This team loves versatility and versatility means platoons.
I’ve settled on what I’d like to see.
1) It’s time to use the young starting pitchers at the bottom of the starting rotation (Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan) sign 2 top shelf starting pitchers at the top and that’s Yamamoto and Imanaga. Do not rely on Buehler coming back, but if he does, that’s the icing on the cake. And if he does come back, he will need a piggy-back apparently and I think it should be Sheehan, and if Buehler doesn’t come back, then Sheehan should be a starter. There are Stone and Knack on the 40 man roster in the minors to step in for injuries.
2) Figure out who plays what position in the middle infield between Betts and Lux. Both in the middle infield.
3) Do not sign a backup catcher. It’s always been the case that the backup catcher only needs to hit fairly good. Barnes sucked, DFA him or trade him for a case of beer/whatever you can get. Do not waste money on a backup catcher, use the money elsewhere. Feduccia is the backup catcher.
4) Sign Hoskins and Lee for the outfield and they do not need to be platooned. Let’s get away from all the damn platoons. Outman is the other outfielder.
5) Save money on the DH position so you can sign all the above players, and with all the above position players you will have a strong offense and strong starting pitching. You don’t need more strong hitting with a strong offense at the other positions and strong starting pitching. If Busch takes off as a hitter that’s icing on the cake. Busch is not an outfielder and the infield is taken already with the players the Dodgers already have. Busch is the DH with a long runway. Or if there is money still available in the budget to sign JD Martinez then I would do it.
6) Bench: Heyward and DeLuca are LHB and RHB pinch hitters when needed and can play all outfield positions. Taylor is the utility infielder. Feduccia is the backup catcher. Trade Rojas for a small bottle of tequila/whatever you can get.
7) There is still prospects in the minors for a trade at the deadline if needed.
With the apparent signing of Joe Kelly, who I don’t like, I’ll leave the bullpen alone.
Starters not starting lineup:
C Smith
1B Freeman
2B Lux or Betts.
SS Lux or Betts.
3B Muncy
OF Outman
OF Hoskins
OF Lee
DH Busch or Martinez.
Bench: Heyward, DeLuca, Taylor, Feduccia.
Starting pitching:
1 Yamamoto
2 Imanaga
3 Buehler with Sheehan as the piggy-back.
4 Miller
5 Pepiot. Or Sheehan if Buehler is not back and move Miller and Pepiot up one spot.
Stone and Knack in the minors for depth.
Just my opinion of what I would do. I’ve settled on this and won’t talk about it anymore. Again, just my opinion.
agree Bear the offense was good during regular season, not so much in the playoffs last 2 years. i would love to take a chance on hoskins. so if you don’t sign ohthani you have hoskins with big time power. they could still go after another bat for the outfield and use hoskins as DH.
hopefully Friedman isn’t just playing with dodger fans emotions! we very well could be looking at Luca Giolita as our “big” acquisition! it doesn’t have to be ohthani, but this dodger offense can’t stand pat. they need 2 big bats! they need a front line pitcher and a lefty. please AF, don’t bargain shop this winter! we’ve all been good! put something special under our blue christmas tree!
Just speculation but it seems that every day that passes with no deal between the Dodgers and Ohtani decreases the chances of both parties coming to an agreement. If both parties are interested seems like an agreement would have been reached by now. Would love to wake up tomorrow to the news of The Dodgers signing Ohtani and Yamamoto!!
I say let the giants sign Ohtani and the dodgers go after Yamamoto Snell and Giolito get those three and bring back JDM as DH and resign Kiki and get Hoskins to play LF with Taylor platoon or he can Dh and even play first base some times and Freeman can DH they can do more with Hoskins Taylor Kiki and Hayward JDM and Deluca trade Rojas ans Vargas for some pitching then paying all that money for Ohtani and that way they fill in all the missing pieces that are missing
Ben Nicholson-Smith, who covers the Blue Jays, reports that Ohtani and his agent will be meeting with “a small group of” teams here in L.A. this weekend.
It would be nice if a final decision is made within the next couple of days, because Shohei’s destination is holding up a lot of other potential deals.
Still don’t get baseball and the off season and it takes so long for signings to take place. When the NFL and NBA start there signing period’s there is a flurry of activity but baseball just drags along at a snails pace.
Looks like more of the same with Friedman ! Lets try this again with the same people?!? Enough already sign Otani, Yamamoto, or Snell, or Cease and a shortstop and a third baseman and dominate! Lets Go Dodgers!!!
When do we give one of our young arms a chance in our bullpen? Hurt, Frasso, Rivers or Kopp
Joe Kelly and the Dodgers close to signing a new deal. This would be an excellent signing to further the BP dominance of the Dodgers.
My guess is Brasier was a bit too rich for the Dodgers coupled with the return to active duty of Trienen and Freyersien. Good work by AF and Gomes
One thing that is troubling is if you read the new MLB article about each team’s need going into the Winter Meetings, well over half of them reference the need for starting pitching.
It is expensive to buy, even on the low end. Creativity is required: international market, trades, swaps of years of control for experience.
We need to add two SPs, I believe. One should be a type that could start a postseason game. The other could be an upside play. We have tons of good young arms. I wouldn’t mind seeing them put to use this year.
I’m wondering whether Hoonstra, a guy who has covered the Dodgers for years, is just speculating,
If he has sources telling him that Mookie will play a lot of SS and Lux really won’t, when will we see the article? ( I don’t care if these sources are on-the-record or anonymous–providing that they are actually plugged-in, like coaches and scouts. This is just baseball, not national security.)
It would be fascinating if the Dodgers commit to Mookie at SS. Trea Turner said he thought it was a real possibility. I don’t think the idea of shifting Mookie back and forth between SS and 2B makes sense because Mookie would need more reps at SS. The job is too important. Plus, both Lux and Busch are lefthanded batters. But Mookie at SS would be a kick.
Then there’s the matter of pitching…
Can the Dodgers reel in Yamamoto? I sure hope so. He’s only 25, which could mean (a) that AF is willing to do a long-term deal because he is so young or (b) Yamamoto is willing to do fewer years with high AAV, so he could test the market again before he’s 30. I guess an opt-out would also be a possibility.
Who knows? Perhaps the fix is in. Perhaps Shohei and Yamamoto want to play together. If the Dodgers land both, people will wonder. And those who aren’t Dodger fans will be pissed.
But I assume that they’re not, and so I think acquiring a frontline SP via trade sense–and Burnes should be the primary target, and that Burnes + Adames still makes sense. Instead of hoping Mookie can be a quality SS, Adames is a sure thing. And his bat adds balance to a lefty-heavy lineup. But just Burnes would be fine too.
Possible rotation: Burnes, Yamamoto, Buhler, Miller, Pepiot, Ryu.
Or maybe Giolito is signed and Pepiot is dealt….
Or Prior could “fix” Giolito like he fixed Syndergaard. Mark, give me your top 5 of our young starters besides Miller and Pepiot. Thanks
I don’t buy Toronto. I can’t see them trading Bichette or actually signing Ohtani.
More teams seem to be dropping out by the day. Who can blame them? The numbers being thrown around are beyond crazy.
How many teams can afford Ohtani?
All those pointing out that you could use Ohtani money to greatly improve the Dodgers in other ways are totally correct. Maybe that’s the smart play.
But the Dodgers seem to have this thing for Shohei. They tried to sign him out of high school and almost did. They tried again when He opted for the MLB, but they were at a disadvantage. The American League had the DH and the NL didn’t. Again, the Dodgers are in pursuit, only this time they also have the DH. Third time the charm?
I’d stay away free agent Blake Snell. Not a fan of the high number of walks. Just a gut feeling. Sooner or later that can bite you.
They could always go big, I mean really big and sign Ohtani and Yamamoto. What? Why not? Only cost $550 mil or $700 mil or maybe $750 mil. Go big or go home, Friedman’s new mantra. Think that wouldn’t shake the very foundation of the MLB. Trade for Cease. Now we’re talking.
It’s hard for me to believe that Christine McVie is dead.
The rumors mill has the Dodgers all in on Yamamoto only if they don’t sign Ohtani. Fir the numbers being tossed about (upwards of 600 million), the Dodgers could sign Yamamoto and Snell/Imagana. That would significantly improve the Dodgers pitching for next year.
like your rotation Mark, but i would still kick the tires on Hoskins for left field. i just can’t see Friedman handing out an 8 -10 year contract. a 3-4 year contract with incentives and an opt out as you suggested. and i still keep seeing the blue jays will consider moving bichette and or even guerrero if they sign ohtani. i would rather have Bo, hoskins, and JD , rather than 500-600 million in ohtani. does Clayton figure in the plan when healthy?