Reality Check
We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The…
We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The Yankees of 2023 were a prime example of that. Their signing of Gerrit Cole continues to be outstanding, but the acquisition of Carlos Rodon has been a dud (so far). They were a team that was expected to go deep into the playoffs, but they crashed and burned.
Corbin Burnes could be the ace the Dodgers covet, or his arm may need the dreaded Tommy John. To a large degree, player acquisition is a crapshoot. You scout, you analyze, you do a physical, and you roll the dice! Yamamoto may be an Ace… or another player who failed to live up to his press clippings. Shohei Ohtani is a man who puts on his pants the same as anyone… and he will be 30 years old on July 5th. Players generally decline in their 30s, but who can guarantee anything?
Signing Ohtani is a baseball decision, not a marketing decision. The Dodgers brand is more known worldwide than practically any other sports team. Andrew Friedman is charged to win, not market, and he will make the final decision. If Shohei Ohtani becomes a Dodger, it is because they believe he will improve the team.
JP Hoornstra said that “a lot of old-time baseball fans forget that the NL Winner no longer plays the AL Winner for the World Series. It’s more of a crapshoot than it is a Championship.” That’s the reality of the baseball world we live in.
Since 2017, here is the record and result of the Dodgers by year:
- 2017 – 104 Wins – Lost the World Series to the Cheaters
- 2018 – 92 Wins – Lost to the Red Sox (a better team)
- 2019 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLDS to the Nats who were red-hot at the end of the season
- 2020 – 60 Wins – Won the World Series in the longest playoff ever (were on pace to win 116 games)
- 2021 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLCS to the World Series Winners – Atlanta Braves
- 2022 – 111 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
- 2023 – 100 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
Of course, many fans talk about how Roberts can’t manage, and Friedman cannot build a team that wins in the playoffs. Both statement brand the sayers of them as delusional morons. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and you need outstanding pitching to win… except the Rangers and the Diamondbacks, who had a 4.26 and 4.48 team ERA for the postseason. That was the worst in recent history! The Dodgers starting pitching was bad last year, but they had a 4.06 ERA – go figure! Every team that won 100 was bounced from the playoffs in short order.
The Dodgers could sign Ohtani and a bunch of other players for a total of $200 Million at the Winter Meetings and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs, or they could stand pat and win the World Series. I am not saying that actually could happen, but it could! No matter what your mouth says – it’s still a crapshoot! Still, you have to try and put yourself in the best position to win.
Dave Roberts has the best winning percentage of any MLB Manager – EVER! Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers have the best record of any team… by far! Damn I wish they were perfect, and this was a perfect world – It is not!
It’s somewhat of a crapshoot after the regular season, and those are the rules we have to play under. Still, the Dodgers will try and get a lot better! They will spend upward of $100 Million in doing so. If forced to bet… I would bet that Shohei Ohtani will not be a Dodger. I am not a hater – Just a Realist!
Here we go!
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Discussion (145)
Disagree, not disagreeable
P.S. Paraphasing Mark, while the rest of baseball is “playing checkers, the Guggenheim Dodgers are play chess”….
Not having the baseball insights of many on LADT, I keep reading these tea leaves:
(1) The owner of the Dodgers is Guggenheim Partners – one of the largest, private, international investment organizations in the world.
(2) Ohtani represents MLB’s biggest international marketing opportunity in baseball history with significant new revenue opportunities.
(3) As Mark recently pointed out, the Dodgers have the largest international marketing staff of any team in MLB.
(4) The Dodgers unloaded salary this past year to position themselves to capitalize on these “Ohtani revenue opportunities.”
(5) All professional sports are positioning themselves to be international players; baseball is ahead of the NFL and NBA and the Dodgers are poitioning themselves to be #1.
(6) Personally, I think Guggenheim Partners are driving the decisions of the LA Ddogers from now on.
(7) Of course, I could be all wrong about this.
The global footprint of MLB pales in comparison to soccer and other sports. That is an apples and oranges comparison. When Ronaldo by himself would take up nearly half of the team’s budget, it tells you everything you need to know how other sports compare to baseball.
I understand Ohtani represents a major piece of the global marketing machine for MLB, but I don’t think the sport is there yet, and I have doubts as to whether it will ever be.
Soccer is king among international sports. Basketball has established a huge presence around the world thanks to ambassadors like Michael Jordan. Baseball is behind, way behind.
Ohtani at $50-60 million AAV looks pretty fair in the context of sports superstar salaries.
Cristiano Reynaldo, at age 38, signed a two-year deal with the Saudis at $200 million per year. (We’ll add the * because it’s Saudi petro dollars.)
But 36-year-old Lionel Messi, without Saudi help, is earning $135 million from Miami in the MLS. At least three other soccer stars have contracts with AAV north of $100 million –Neymar Jr, Mbappe and a guy I’ve never heard of, Karim Benzena. (Oh, just noticed he’s also taking Saudi blood money.)
In the NFL, Joe Burrow is earning $55 million per year. Good QB! Some other QBs aren’t far behind. But should they earn more than a superstar like Ohtani?
In the NBA, nine players are earning more than $40 million per season–and that’s with a salary cap.
500 million – 600 million? wow!! i guess it all comes down to ohtani and his personal preference. if he is a dodger, great. if he goes to Toronto, even better! just hope if isn’t a dodger, he’s in the American league! hope soto ends up a yankee. someone said earlier, smells of another lackluster winter meeting for LA! who the heck knows? always enjoy the offseason, the rumors, the trades, the hype, and all of us playing GM! but honestly, this 600 million stuff is a bit of a downer. ain’t no one player worth that. , even ohtani.
For what it’s worth, the Dodgers are reportedly one of two teams to put an offer for Ohtani of between $500 and $600 million. That from MLB radio.
This smacks of an Andrew Friedman move:
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/erick-fedde-nearing-deal-with-unknown-team.htmli like it. my only concern is the corners., left and right. i would look for one more outfielder , i’m not sure the 4 you listed will hit 35 homers combined.
I still go back to the trade I suggested a few weeks ago:
1. Trade for Cease and Robert, Jr. – Trade Busch or Vargas, Outman, Pages, Sheehan, Williams, Austin Barnes, and Frasso
2. Sign JDM
3. Sign Imagana
4. Sign Mitch Garver
Lineup:
1. Lux SS
2. Betts 2B
3. Freeman 1B
4. Robert, Jr. CF
5. JDM DH
6. Smith C
7. Muncy 3B
8. Heyward/DeLuca RF
9. Busch or Vargas LF (whichever one you don’t trade)
That lineup would be devastating!
If Mookies playing 2nd, then Busch or Vargas will be moved. We’ll see who Dodgers like better and might end up at third next year.
Robert’s just announced Mookie is our 2nd baseman next year. Vargas and Busch better get a left fielders glove!
For those following at home, the trade simulator APPROVES the Braves/Mariners trade!
Gonzalez, Kelenic, White and Cash comes to about 3
Cole Phillips is 3.2 (other Mariner acquisitions are nil)
Up, up and away.
The media keeps reporting the price for Ohtani’s services keeps climbing higher. Will it reach 600 mil? Maybe even go higher.
That’s bat crap crazy, of course. No player in history is worth that. Even if he can generate $75 to 100 million a year in additional revenue streams for the signing organization, there would other factors in saying such a contract would be a bad deal.
You’d never stay under the payroll tax, nor would you be able to keep a club competitive in the long run. It would take away flexibility to add other needs. Trout and Ohtani didn’t put the Angels into the playoffs.
Yes, he’s an incredible talent, but with a boat anchor contract.
A couple of reports the Dodgers are moving away, but others saying the Dodgers are all in … whatever that means.
Even if the Dodgers don’t sign Ohtani, doesn’t mean they will switch the money elsewhere, like Yamamoto. Or even make a big trade. Cease is still up in the air and apparently the White Sox wanted a lot more than the Dodgers are offering in prospect capital.
Oh, at some point they will make a trade or two, I’m sure. What that will look like, I have no idea.
From MLBTR:
Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.
Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.
Jung Hoo Lee To Be Posted Today
never wanted him , inconsistent and attitude.
Some Dodger fans wanted Chris Archer. Now they have him!
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/dodgers-hire-chris-archer-as-special-assistant.htmlCardinals are listening to offers for Tyler O’Neil
Saw this on another thread.
Give me Ohtani or give me depth!
I like it!
Drive safe Bear! Enjoy your time with your family!
First day of the meetings is always the slowest. I have to get my truck serviced today. Oil change and tire rotation. Leaving on Thursday morning for the coast.
Hard to imagine AF as a prizefighter!
So far, the Winter Meetings are like Round One in a Prize Fight, where the boxers are sizing each other up before throwing their punches. Trades and signings could come in a flurry of haymakers!
I have always said that Gavin Lux is not a SS.
Here’s more rumors:
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/dodgers-could-be-looking-to-upgrade-at-shortstop.htmlThe Willy Adames rumor is getting teeth.
First trade of the meetings, Braves get Kelenic, White and left-hander, Marco Gonzales for Jackson Kowar, and Cole Phillips. Cash is also heading to the Mariners. It is a salary dump with the Braves taking on Gonzales 12.25 mil and White’s 7. Dodgers contract with Joe Kelly is for 8 million.