There has been a lot of speculation about FA the Dodgers may want to re-sign or sign. We have no idea what the CBT will be, or what the penalties will be if a team exceeds that limit with the upcoming CBA. Currently the taxes can reach a maximum 50% for all salaries above the CBT, and can reach a total of 95% for all salaries greater than $40MM in excess of the threshold. Admittedly this occurs for all teams that exceed the CBT for three consecutive years. What if the salary challenged teams push for even more onerous penalties?
Maybe teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox can absorb the tax, but what if the penalties are more punitive with the draft? The gift of Trevor Bauer just keeps on giving. They already lost their #2 draft pick last year, and now the Dodgers will not only pay the tax, but because they exceeded the CBT by $40MM, their position in the next draft will drop by ten positions. They were due to select #29, but now they will be picking #39. Really, was Trevor Bauer worth all this? I did not think so at the time, and I really do not think so now.
If the Dodgers decide to sign a player with a QO, without any change in the current rules, they will lose their second and fifth highest selections in the June 2022 draft, plus lose $1MM in international bonus dollars. What if the penalties become even more draconian? While we are LAD fans, how many fans from teams with salary obstacles want the penalties to be more pernicious to challenge the more wealthy teams. Those teams will undoubtedly push for more penalties in the upcoming negotiations. I would not be surprised to learn that the negotiations between the various owners will be even more contentious than the negotiations between MLB and MLBPA. MLBPA will want to minimize the restrictions for the top wealthy teams. The owners will want to minimize the salary to increase their cash flow. The wealthy owners will want a salary floor, but will the salary challenged teams want to mitigate the opportunities for the wealthy teams to spend?
In a perfect world, teams would be allowed to spend what they want, but at the very least have a salary ceiling that dwarfs the current CBT. I have no idea what that level might be, but there is a salary limit even the Dodgers will not be willing to cross. IMO, the Dodger owners might be willing to pay a tax but not have to incur draft restrictions. If a team loses a player with a QO, let the teams have draft additions, but don’t penalize the signing team.
| Existing Contracts: | In Millions | Total By Category |
| Trevor Bauer | $34.000 | |
| Mookie Betts | $30.417 | |
| Justin Turner | $17.000 | |
| David Price | $15.000 | |
| AJ Pollock | $12.000 | |
| Blake Treinen | $8.750 | |
| Max Muncy | $8.670 | |
| Walker Buehler | $4.000 | |
| Tommy Kahnle | $2.375 | |
| Austin Barnes | $2.150 | $134.362 |
| Arbitration: (Estimated by MLBTR) | ||
| Trea Turner | $19.9000 | |
| Cody Bellinger | $16.100 | |
| Julio Urias | $8.800 | |
| Scott Alexander | $1.300 | |
| Caleb Ferguson | $0.700 | $46.800 |
| Per Arbitration (Per Cots) | $7.700 | $7.700 |
| Remaining 40 Man | $2.500 | $2.500 |
| Benefits | $16.000 | $16.000 |
| Total AAV for CBT | $207.362 | $207.362 |
So the Dodgers have less than $3MM salary space without signing any free agents. People want LAD to sign Corey Seager, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw. What is that? Another $70MM for 2022? Is that realistic. If the Dodgers re-sign Seags, can they truly afford to keep Trea Turner at nearly $20MM? I already made a mistake when I opined that LAD would not get near a $250MM payroll much less exceed it. So I will not pretend to be so dogmatic with the 2022 salary projection. But the questions are certainly worth pondering. I am also not so naïve to think AF will do anything so dramatic without having any clear understanding as to what the new CBA will bring. In addition, it is not conceivable that Scott Boras will be so motivated that he will push his clients to sign before the new CBA is finalized.
Once again, Scott Boras will dictate the pace of FA signings as he is the agent for 6 of the top 30 FA:
Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, Michael Conforto, and Carlos Rodon.
This is the first step. We now have the numbers that AF is working with. We can play all sorts of “what if” scenarios. For me, it is my contention that AF will not sign any player who will receive a QO (other than LAD FA). It will not only get expensive, but the draft losses will be burdensome. So who will get the QO’s? We will know for sure on Sunday, but for now let’s speculate:
Near (if not ) 100%
Toronto – Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien
Astros – Carlos Correa
Braves – Freddie Freeman
Reds – Nick Castellanos
Rockies – Trevor Story
Dodgers – Corey Seager and Clayton Kershaw
Possible:
Toronto – Steven Matz
Mets – Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard
Boston – Eduardo Rodriguez
Houston – Justin Verlander
Rockies – Jon Gray
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Dodgers – Chris Taylor
Brewers – Avisail Garcia
Giants – Brandon Belt
Discussion (9)
Disagree, not disagreeable
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/joc-pederson-atlanta-braves-mlb-baseball
5/160 the first offer from the Houston Astros for Correa.
It’s always interesting and fun to try to predict what will go on in the offseason. But, all is mute until the new CBA is agreed upon. If issues drag on for any length of time and cause a delay in starting the 2022 season it will be a black eye for baseball and may start the decline of interest in the game especially with younger fans. So, the sooner the better with new CBA. With that done, the fun will really start for the Dodgers. With all the recent success the Dodgers have had it’s crazy to see so much potential roster turmoil.
Also mentioned above is how Boras will navigate the marketplace. He usually has his players wait out the market until Jan-Feb. With the CBA uncertainty he may change strategy and get his guys signed ASAP. Let’s hope for logical minds and a speedy resolution by the league and the players.\
Carry on.
Since the Dodgers look at player payroll over multiple years, no doubt they saw this coming. So what is the plan? Probably a plan A, a plan B and a Plan C. Do they want Corey Seager back? I’m sure they do. Is that realistic? Hey, we’re talking baseball salaries, is anything realistic?
Some were obviously surprised the Dodgers exceeded payroll projections in 2021. Yes, Trevor Bauer was excessive. But, for whatever reason, they opted to go there. Didn’t work, not because of talent. The Dodgers were right about that. Okay, the player was a little edgy, but not in their wildest dreams could they project something like this happening. Is the contract an obstacle moving forward? A little or a lot? Definitely a little, maybe not a lot. Things were written when Bauer was signed, questioning how the contract would impact the team moving forward —- what about Seager, Clayton Kershaw? They apparently tried to extend Seager this summer.
They probably projected moving on from Kenley Jansen and Chris Taylor. I’m also certain they never saw an opportunity to trade for Trea Turner or Max Scherzer. If Bauer didn’t derail, would they still have pursued Scherzer? Maybe. Probably. It’s Scherzer, after all.
But if Bauer had produced would the Dodgers now find themselves in this predicament? Signing Scherzer a must with a lot of uncertainty ahead. What about Kershaw. He’s different, iconic to the Dodgers and the fans. So take him out of the equation. If he wants to return, the Dodgers work it out.
Considering payroll and all, the Dodgers are somewhat at a turning point. They have a rotation of Julio Urias, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, maybe Kershaw, then a lot of young arms. Will that be enough? MLB can free up Bauer’s money by suspending him or allowing him to play, which pretty much no one thinks will happen. So the Dodgers can take an educated guess and think Bauer will be suspended and go after Scherzer, hope he holds up in 2022 and beyond. Of course, MLB can make a decision, leaving little doubt moving forward.
That leaves Seager. No doubt they want him back, but they have Trea to slide over and Gavin Lux to take over second. Dave Roberts even offered an earlier comment saying Lux returning to the infield would be a good thing. Second base awaits. I can’t see them trading Turner under any circumstances, too much upside. Andrew Friedman even said the Dodgers like what speed brings, steal a base, going first to third etc. But for whatever reason they simply weren’t able to cash more opportunities in … I’m sure they look hard for an answer moving forward. Maybe it’s approach.
So if nothing changes, Seager is probably gone, unless none of this matters and the Dodgers move toward $300 million, not exactly out of the realm of possibility. Besides they need a third baseman moving forward and a great bat to boot and that’s Seager. If the money is right, would Corey resist the move. Probably not.
Good write-up, Jeff.
I was listening to MLB and I would say it is a certainty that the luxury tax will go up. I would guess it will be 10% or so, with some type of escalator clause for the duration of the deal.
MLB also wants to implement some way for superstars to get paid sooner in their careers. That is fair, in my opinion.
I think the MLB and MiLB Minimums will go up dramatically and MLB has already announced they will house the minor leaguers. I would think that would add a couple million per team in costs.
The best thing that can happen to the Dodgers is for Bauer to be suspended for the year, but absent an arrest, that ain’t gonna’ happen.
The ONLY way I would sign Scherzer is to a three-year deal with a vesting option when a certain threshold of innings is met. For example, let’s say Scherzer signs a three year $105 Million dollar deal with 150 innings being the vesting option for the next season. If he doesn’t hit it, he is a free agent.
Kershaw is going to get the QO and take it. Whether he plays next year is open for conjecture.
Well, if there’s one thing we learned from last year is, if you’re gonna go over, you might as well go big. As far as Trevor Bauer goes, he’s a dumbass and a weirdo. But, there was no reason to believe he was going to get into the trouble that he got into at the time of his signing. Just like there’s no reason to believe he’ll do something this stupid again with all that he’s lost. The Braves won the Championship this year with a couple of hot hitters and a couple of good pitching performances. You saw what our pitching did against the Braves. It’s easy to say that signing Bauer was a mistake, just like it’s easy to say using our starters in relief was a mistake by Doc and AF and possibly cost us another Championship. But, at the time with respect to Bauer, it was absolutely the right move.
People conveniently forget that Bauer was arguably the best pitcher in the league before he went down with that brain injury. He led the league in quality starts, innings pitched and I think K’s when he went down. Sure it was a mistake to sign him now that he got screwed out of pitching for at least half a season, but you can make that case for Mookie as well, who was a shell of what he was the year before. Just like Bauer, there’s no way you could know that Betts would have a hip injury ahead of time. One difference is “The gift that keeps giving” will be giving some of that money back once his “administrative leave” is converted into a suspension.
Moving on…
Big deal we if we drop 10 spots when we pick around 30 anyways. Is there really that big a difference between the 30th pick and the 40th? The biggest problem that I see is rewarding teams like the Cheaters who throw several seasons in a row and get rewarded with the top pick in the draft while punishing teams that do well with a crap pick. I would really like to see that addressed in the next CBA. It probably won’t, so I won’t spend a lot of time wishing for something the has almost no chance of happening.
So, we’re right up against the fake cap. The way I look at this is we don’t have a CBA, so there are no rules defined as of today so I don’t want to speculate about penalties or anything like that. It would be senseless for a fan to try to plan roster moves based on fictional salaries and fictional rules which is where we are today. To me, I think spending will be less restrictive going forward than it was under the last deal. There’s no freaking way the owners are going to get their wish that salaries will go down. I don’t see any teams going bankrupt except the McCourt Dodgers who were used as a big fat ATM machine by the McCourts who drained the team in order to buy a multitude of real estate properties putting the team into bankruptcy only to make close to another billion once it was finally sold to a group that’s arguable made even more money. Wow, what a scam! Say what you want about McCourt, but that dude had the balls to pull off a heist of a lifetime and still owns the freaking parking lots surrounding the stadium.
Let’s just say the cap maybe increases a little bit and the penalties decrease a little bit. This is what I see as ultimately happening. Is it really that far out of the realm of possibility that the Dodgers find 60 – 70 M to add to where we’re at with payroll right now?
With Bauer’s full salary we’re just below the fake cap. If that is reduced by half we’ll have around $20M below the cap (give or take a few $M). If we start at $20 under and we add an additional $50M it’s still lower than we were last year. So, let’s go with at $70M number.
Can we get Seager, Scherzer and Kershaw to resign for that $70M is the question. (If Bauer isn’t suspended, and we don’t get cap relief because of it, we don’t need Kershaw and Scherzer). I don’t think that’s beyond the realm of possibility either. For reference, Mookie’s luxury tax salary is just north of $25M. Can we get Corey to ink for money in the same neighborhood? What about Story, Correa, Baez or Semien? With that kind of supply, I would think the price drops a little considering Tatis Jr is at around $25M payroll salary.
I think it’s way too early to get into nuts and bolts with the pending CBA. I agree with AC that there’s little chance that any big names are going to sign before the next CBA is settled. I just think it’s within the realm of possibility for the Dodgers to bring back Seager, Max and Kershaw if that’s what they think is needed to get back to the World Series. I will concede that I think AF is good at what he does and the team is interested in keeping the wallet open when they’re this close.
One more note. AF and his team is running a business. In regards to Clayton, he severely underperformed his last contract. In other words, they paid him more than what he delivered. Do you really think that’s going to happen again just because he’s Clayton Kershaw? His WAR was 2.1 last year and 3.0 in the previous full season. What is a 2.0 – 2.5 pitcher worth? One that spends significant time on the IL for the last 5-6 years? I think Clayton owes the Dodgers a homeboy deal. $10M plus incentives? That would leave $30M each for Seags and Mad Max.
I wonder if Justin Verlander is the oldest player to get the QO?
Golden era HOF nominees announced. 3 players with Dodger ties on the list, Dick Allen, Maury Wills and Gil Hodges. The list for old timers and negro league players also announced. Most likely candidate there in my mind would be Buck O’Neill. Lefty O’Doul and Bill Dahlen also on the list. Minnie Minoso, Billy Pierce, and Jim Kaat also on the Golden era list as is Ken Boyer who also spent a short time as a Dodger. Maris, Oliva and Murtaugh on the list too
This post was generated before learning that Scott Alexander was waived. The Dodgers appear to have an additional $1.3MM available. For the record, I do believe LAD will exceed the CBT, but not so much that they will lose draft picks or draft positions.