The 800-pound gorilla in the room is the CBA between MLB and the MLBPA. I think it’s way too early to predict what will happen, but you can rest assured that the Luxury Tax Threshold and salaries will go up. Everything is preliminary at this point. Ultimately, it seems like the DH will be implemented in the NL and there will be some additional time limits put on the game, but right about now, every team is preparing qualifying offers, adjusting their roster, and planning for the Rule 5 draft.
I think the Dodgers will be pretty quiet in Free Agency and Trades, although I could see them pursuing a RH Power bat such as Suarez (Thanks AC), or Chapman (thanks Bums). They will try and sign Seager. They will sign Kershaw if he opts to play another season. Scherzer is a huge risk. I’d rather sign Verlander but he will likely have the QO attached, so it’s Scherzer with the RIGHT deal. It feels like the odds of Max Scherzer coming back to the Dodgers is less than 30%, but that is just my opinion.
The time is now to plan for an infusion of talent from the minor leagues, beginning in 2022. 2022 will certainly bring some pitchers from the Farm Systems to the big club. Names that come to mind are the following:
- Andre Jackson – I see swingman written all over him.
- Mitch White – He is still being labeled as a starter, but he could move into a high leverage bullpen role next season.
- Bobby Miller – The only question is “when” not “if.”
- Landon Knack – He certainly projects as a starter, but could move to the pen. Don;t be surprised to see him early in 2022.
- Clayton Beeter – He has filthy stuff as astarter, but his arm health could force him to the bullpen. He is another pitcher we could see in 2022.
- Darien Nunez – He just needs to make one or two better pitches per game. He has spectacular stuff and could be apart of the pen in 2022. He’s part of the reason Scott Alexander was let go.
- Ryan Pepiot – HIs arm is tremendous. Does he have the desire?
- Hyun-il Choi – This guy could be a solid #5 as early as 2022 or 2023. He can really pitch, and is solid, if not spectacular.
- Robinson Ortiz – I think he could be a lights-out releiver and he is LH.
Also, do not forget about Garrett Cleavinger, Victor Gonzalez, and Kendall Williams. Of course, we will see a few… most will likely be ready in 2023. Let’s not forget how Friedman built the best bullpen in baseball last year. He did it with the Bickfords, Bruihls, and Vesias. None were popular moves at the time. This year, they get Caleb Ferguson, Tommy Kahnle, maybe Jimmy Nelson, and Garrett Cleavinger back. If Jansen and/or Knebel return, there is little room for others.
The hitters who may be ready are a little further out and include the following:
- Miguel Vargas – It would be nice if he could play 3B, but I am not convinced he can. 1B is more likely. He could be ready in late 2022, but he is a potential All-Star
- Andy Pages – Another power RH bat with a high baseball IQ, who projects as a Right fielder as soon as 2023.
- Michael Busch – Yes he has improved at 2B, but he is not MLB Ready. His bat might be ready by mid-season.
- Jacob Amaya – He’s got the glove and baseball IQ to be the next Swiss-army-knife. The bat is the question, but he is currently hitting .294 with a .442 OB% in the AFL. If he keeps that up, he will make the team in 2022!
- Eddys Leonard – He can play all over the diamond and a scout I keep in touch with says that he could be an All-Star second baseman and expects him to fly through the Dodgers’ system like Andrew Toles did.
- James Outman – He might be ready in 2022 to be a 4th or 5th outfielder. There’s a lot to like about him. Accept that he’s a role player.
- Brandon Lewis – Lewis once weighed 285, and has dropped 60 or 70 pounds. He could be a average 3B (defensively) but would be better at 1B. With his light-tower power and iron will and determination (it takes determination to lose that kind of weight), I think he is very under-rated.
- Jordon Yurchak – Great hit tool – very little power (7 HR in 340 AB’s). He hit .365 with a .443 OB%. That’s nothing to ignore.
- Carson Taylor – I think he is on a fast track to be the backup catcher in 2023.
- Luke Raley – Progress is not liner. Give him a chance.
- Zach Reks – The same as Raley… except less power.
- Diego Cartaya – The sky is the limit and it could happen quickly! Most likely 2024, but we could see him sooner. He looked like a man among boys at RC.
I doubt that many of those players see the Show next year, but I still like Luke Raley, even though many fans are ready to throw him out.
I could see the Dodgers being players for right-fielder Seiya Suzuki once he is posted by his team in Japan. That would move Mookie Betts to 2B and give the Dodgers another power RH bat. With Edwin Rios expected back next season and Justin Turner expected to be the primary DH, things could get interesting. Everything turns on Corey Seager and without knowing what happens with him, everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) is fluid.
Now, all we have to do is hurry up and wait!
Joke of the Day
A federal mask mandate.
Discussion (24)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Scherzer is not getting $50M per year. He will not get $40M per year. He’ll be in that $30 – $35M per year category.
I think Heaney serves two roles. You can put him in the rotation of that long man lefty reborn pitcher like Drew Pomeranz. The think I hate about this signing is hearing people on this saying that he sucks all offseason.
The Dodgers need Starting Pitching. This is a good start. There were a lot of teams interested in him. He’s got a live arm if nothing else. I’d rather take a gamble on a guy like Heaney that some soft tossing sinkerballer like Brett Anderson.
Like I touched on early this offseason. I love the pitching coaches and don’t like hit hitting coaches as much. This will be a good test for the pitching coaches.
Are you kidding me signing Andrew Heany for $8 M?
If he is to replace Scherzer, we are in deep trouble because 1. He misses a lot of time and 2. He isn’t very good.
Sorry fellows, can’t jump on this one with Pom poms.
TM
I have it on pretty good authority that Clayton Kershaw will either play for the Dodgers or retire!
On Andrew Heaney:
I think some fans think Andrew Friedman makes these kinds of decisions in a vacuum, but it is far from that. The entire Dodger staff and brain trust are involved in these types of decisions. This includes Mark Prior and probably Honey.
They see something and I think Heaney can be a factor in 2022. B &P Nailed it: Think what the Giants did with Gausman! Some players are injury-prone and are always injury-prone. Some players are injury-prone until they are not!
I would sooner do a 1 Year/$8.5 Million deal on Heaney than a 3 year/$100 Million dollar deal on Scherzer.
#1 – Buehler
#2 – Urias
#3- Heaney
#4 – May
#5 – Gonsolin
#6 – White
#7 – Jackson
#8 – Miller
#9 – Knack
There will be a season in 2022. Both sides have too much at stake!
And the whole narrative of: “the teams are going to wait for the new agreement to sign FA is solved”, “it is not even known if there will be a season in 2022”, the Dodgers put it in the trash can by signing the first free agent of the offseason
Andrew Heany has a 4.72 career ERA and has only made more than 23 starts one time. He has been very injury prone. He will be almost 31 at the beginning of the season so it’s not like he hasn’t been around for a while.
In 2021, he was 8 – 9, 5.83 with the Angels and Yankees.
And it isn’t a matter of luck – his career FIP is 4.45. He just isn’t very good.
Yikes!
Being reported that we’re signing Andrew Heany. 1 year, 8.5 mil guaranteed.
Joel Sherman was saying this morning that he thought Heany could sign quickly and named the Dodgers as one of the interested teams. Did some stat comparisons and his 2021 was similar to Ray’s 2020.
Homers are his main problem. Maybe we’ll keep him longer this time than the last time we had him. I know he has a good sense of humor. We traded him about 15 minutes after we got him last time and he tweeted a thank you to the Dodger fans and said he really enjoyed his time with the team.
Very strange to look at the Dodger roster on the website and not see Kersh, Seager, Taylor, Jansen listed. Some are suggesting it is going to take at least a 10 year 300 million dollar deal to get Seager signed.
Houston Mitchell of the Times is running a poll. He is asking for a vote for an inaugural Dodgers Hall of Fame. He is allowing 12 votes for players and 3 for non-players.
Here are my votes:
Players:
Roy Campanella
Don Drysdale
Steve Garvey
Babe Herman
Clayton Kershaw
Sandy Koufax
Mike Piazza
Jackie Robinson
Duke Snider
Dazzy Vance
Zack Wheat
Non-players:
Walter O’Malley
Branch Rickey
Vin Scully
Responses?
Hey Bear,
This came in my email today, what are your thoughts? i’m thinking of investing.
Driverless trucks can’t arrive soon enough, Joann writes.
Why it matters: Ports are backed up and there aren’t enough truck drivers to get all the containers where they need to be, leading to product shortages, inflation and stressed-out holiday shoppers.
Driverless trucks could theoretically be operating 24/7, moving freight from clogged ports to store shelves more quickly and safely, while cutting delivery costs and carbon emissions too.
It’ll be two or three years before autonomous trucks are ready for commercial deployment on U.S. highways. But the first data-driven studies from early pilot programs suggest they’ll be substantially more efficient.
TuSimple and UPS, for example, say their self-driving test trucks achieved 13% fuel savings while racking up 160,000 autonomous highway miles in Arizona.
“To get 13% fuel savings is unheard of,” TuSimple CEO Cheng Lu tells Axios — worth billions of dollars for the U.S. trucking industry.
Fuel accounts for 24% of the cost per mile for heavy-duty trucks, second to labor, at 42%, per the American Transportation Research Institute.
TuSimple’s system drives more smoothly and efficiently than a human driver, Lu explains. “How you operate the truck has a very big impact on fuel economy. It’s a great validation of the maturity of our technology.”
Another study by Georgia Tech found that Ryder Systems’ new autonomous transfer hub networks — combining self-driving trucks on highways with conventional trucking operations for the first and last miles — could save shippers up to 40%.
“Today I have to wait to get another driver. There’s a lot of lost time in the transfer of goods,” says Ryder executive vice president Karen Jones, who heads up new product development. “This has the promise to keep everything moving around the clock.”
Reduced labor costs account for much of the savings, of course. But optimizing routes to reduce miles driven with an empty trailer is another big factor, the study found.
What they’re saying: “The reality is that America simply does not have enough truck drivers,” Don Burnette, founder and CEO of autonomous trucking startup Kodiak Robotics, tells Axios via email.
The U.S. driver shortage stands at 80,000 today and is on track to double by 2030, according to the American Trucking Associations.
The shortage leaped during the pandemic, when demand for shipped goods soared just as the industry saw a surge in early retirements.
Some companies are even trying to bring in drivers from other countries.
Einride, a Swedish company, says its technology could make truck driving a more attractive desk job.
Where it stands: A handful of autonomous trucking firms continue to make progress toward highway deployment, including Waymo, Aurora, Embark and Kodiak.
One company, Gatik, has begun making short driverless runs for Walmart on a fixed urban route in Bentonville, Arkansas. (Read more)
What to watch: TuSimple signaled it is close to testing its trucks without a human safety operator on public highways before the end of this year.
Until we know for sure, any talk of CK needing surgery is pure guess work. According to what I have read, the medical staff says he will not require surgery. So until I read or hear something different, I am going to take them at their word. Jansen coming back is iffy. Kelly might be back at a lower price. Seager is gone in my mind until I read different. Taylor will not take the QO. For the first time in his career he has a chance to see some real long term money. And someone not the Dodgers, is going to cross over the line and pay him above what we might think he is worth. Kersh will either sign an incentive laden deal with the Dodgers or go home to Texas. Joc is welcome back if he accepts the same kind of playing time he had before as a platoon player. Joc was not the only player on the Braves to score two rings in a row. The other was OF Terrance Gore who earned his 3rd World Series ring…..as many as Posey has, and he has only played in 102 career games. He got one with KC, one with the Dodgers and this one with Atlanta. Dodger trades will be minimal if any at all, and mostly involving fringe players. Gold Gloves will be awarded tonight.
Wow, that was interesting. Why didn’t Kershaw get a QO? Because they know they can get him for less or that he’s a big risk with his medicals. It looks to me like they’re not going out of their way to bring him back.
Why didn’t Kenley get a QO? Because closers don’t get 18M. Kenley recently said that he’s not interested in a pay cut. I think closers took a hit in the salary department since Kenley last signed a deal. He’ll soon see that he’s got no chance at $16M per year again.
It looks like they’re trying to entice Taylor into accepting. Good move. Do you take it and go back and try again next year, or do you decline and shoot for the moon after arguably your best season?
Seager was a no brainer and his decision to decline will likewise be a no brainer.
I’m not really that surprised by any of this. Kenley and Kershaw are “You got a spot if you want to come back” kinda guys. But, they aren’t a priority.
I’m not convinced Seager will be back, but I think he’ll be back.
I don’t think Kenley will be back.
Taylor should absolutely take that QO and give it another run. He’s not going to get that high of an AAV on the open market. I think he’ll decline and test the market for a 4-5 year deal.
I’m not sure what Clayton will do. But, it’s clear the Dodgers aren’t going to overpay him. I didn’t get the feeling he was done after last year, but who knows what he’s thinking and what his medicals really show. Mark’s been saying TJ all along and the medical staff says, nah it’s just a flexor tendon. I’m leaning towards Mark’s diagnosis.
The Dodgers have been very good with Clayton over the years. I think it’s time for Clayton to take the AF blue light special with a two year deal, plan on sitting out next year recovering and come back as healthy as he can for one more season. At least, that’s what I’d like to see happen.
AF is going to have some work to do. He really needs to sign two starting pitchers and try to fill the 5th spot from within. At least, that’s what it looks like with “The man who shan’t be named” still in limbo.
2B Betts ($30.4M)
1B Seager $25M)
CF Buxton ($9M)
RF Bellinger ($16M)
3B Chapman ($11M)
SS Lux ($0,7M)
C Smith ($0.9M)
LF Pederson ($6M)
Buehler
Urias
Gonsolen
Not Schezer
Not Kershaw
Not Jansen
Traded: Trea Turner, Muncy, Pollock
God I absolutely love cold blooded Dylan. He can drive the nail all the way home with just one tap. His words for me today have been like an expectorant to congestion. Bear, I know you don’t care for his voice but to me it can be pure gold. Yesterday was John Prine and Arlo Guthrie unable hold back that tear about Steve Goodman. Today I’m just kinda pissed off but it’s feeling better by the minute. Just sharing.
Well, I was wrong about Taylor, Seager was a lock. Kersh I can understand. He either want’s to be a career Dodger or he does not. What they got from him last season was not worth 18 mil. Giants got that kind of pitching on much lesser contracts. If he needs TJ and wants to continue to pitch after the rehab, he may do it elsewhere. We have no clue what his doctors might be suggesting. They would get two draft picks if Taylor and Seager both leave. Kersh might come back on an incentive laden deal. In total, 14 players were offered QO’s. Giants gave it to Belt, and Astros to Verlander. Story on either MLB or ESPN< cannot remember which says the Dodgers are very interested in Andrew Haney. In a shocker, the Bronco's beat the Cowboys, and the Jaguars beat the Bills. Pack losing without Rogers.
I have been predicting CT3 would get the QO but the Dodgers must know something we do not about Clayton:
1. He needs TJ;
2. He is retiring; or
3. He wants to play at home.
According to mlbtr, Seager and CT3 have been given QO’s……………………….but not Kershaw.
Does that sound like they expect Clayton to give them a full season next year? I think not, or they would have happily paid him 18 mil.
I wish I had a clue as to what AF was planning, but I do not. Seager offered the QO. Several other players, Story, Castellanos, Syndergaard, also offered the QO. They have a little over 1 1/2 hours to decide if Kersh and Taylor get one. I do not think Taylor will. There was a story on MLB.com that suggests the Giants are going to sign both Scherzer and Verlander. I will believe that when I see it. Hardest part of the year for me. Just waiting for something to happen and hoping it is good. USC is playing so bad they are hard to watch. Was hoping LSU would knock off Alabama , but they could not finish the job.
Carson Taylor is a player. It was evident with the Loons. Throwing out runners is definietely something to work on but this guy can hit and play. Some guys just look like they are totally involved in the game.
I wonder if they’ll consider moving Brusdar back to starting. He’s built like an NFL defensive tackle, so I’ll bet he could build up the durability. It seems to be easier to find bullpen guys than starters. It would make logistics of bringing Jensen and/or Knebel back simpler.
Some interesting stuff to think about Mark.
Scherzer – the more I think about it, the less likely I think we see him return. At least 10 teams will make him offers and many of them have more money to spend than we will. Right now, we only know we can depend on Buehler and Julio for next year. Bauer? Who knows. Kersh, no idea if he’ll return and if he does whether he’ll be healthy. All of the young guys you mentioned are interesting, but I wouldn’t want to have to depend on any of them as a 1-5 starter in 2022. We need to go out and sign a couple of guys like Stroman who can throw a decent amount of innings and won’t be as expensive as Max.
I’m really looking forward to Vargas and Pages but I don’t think either will be a factor in 2022.
I’d love to see us involved in the Suzuki bidding, but you don’t just move a Mookie Betts to second base permanently unless he wants to move. We don’t know that he does. At worst, if we sign Suzuki, he becomes our left fielder once AJ’s contract is up next year.
Despite a lot of injuries and down years by Belli and Betts, the Dodgers were first in the NL in runs scored. RVS is not going to be fired… nor should he.
However, I would guess that there will be changes in the player’s approach and that RVS and company will adjust accordingly.
Insofar as being HR reliant, the Giants and Braves hit more than the Dodgers, so I would say they were more HR reliant!
AF is consistently “tight lipped” about acquisitions, coaching decisions, injuries etc. I must say that I am surprised we haven’t heard of any changes to the coaching staff. I expected to see some changes to the hitting coaching staff including a termination of RVS.
The Dodgers have been far too reliant on the HR for runs, don’t play small ball well and hitting w/ RISP has been not so good. Will the staff stay the same or will there be changes?