I know that five out of four people struggle with math, but let me break something down for you. The Athletic predicts that Max Scherzer is in line for a $150 million dollar/3-year payday. In case you are mathematically challenged, that is $142 million dollars more than what Andrew Friedman paid for Andrew Heaney. $142,000,000! That is real money. %$#@&^%$#@%$^ NOW, MAYBE HE DOESN’T GET THAT – Maybe he “only” gets $100 Million.
Max will be 38 in 2022 and if I could get the Max Scherzer of 2010 to 2021, boy I would be all over that! But a 38-year-old Max Scherzer ain’t that guy! He’s more like Justin Verlander, who essentially has not pitched in two years! Realize that if the Dodgers sign Max Scherzer, he might only be Max Scherzer for one of those years and the Dodgers will have wasted $100 million dollars!
I am going to tell you right here, right now, that you may be that dumb, but Andrew Friedman is not! Max Scherzer’s arm has an exceptionally good chance of falling off (that’s a Timmonsism for “You need TJ, son“)
NEWS FLASH! Andrew Heaney is not Max Scherzer. The first difference you will see is that he throws with the opposite arm that Max does. The Dodgers are paying Andrew Heaney $8 Million dollars for 2022. Eight Million Dollars may sound like a lot, but in this scheme of things, it is not. This is called Low Risk – High Reward! You can buy 19 Andrew Heaney’s for one Max Scherzer!
What does not add up is that Andrew Heaney was in the Top 10% in spin-rate and has a 95+ MPH fastball and yet, he gets beaten like a rented mule. My lizard brain tells me that Andrew needs a little “tweak” and he might be a 20-game winner. Drop a pitch, add a pitch, change your arm slot, change your pitch selection. This is a risk, but only an $8 Million Dollar risk… Max Scherzer is a $100 to $150 Million Dollar risk and I would not even consider it.
OK, here is what really happened: When the Dodgers traded for Heaney a little over a hundred years ago, Andrew Friedman gave him explicit instructions to “act injured, pitch badly and we will get you back!” There, it’s that simple. Andrew Heaney has been anointed the next Cy Young Winner… or not.
This is just a move. There are more to come. Remember that in 2021, the Dodgers assembled what may have been the best rotation in the game… and then added Max Scherzer… and still did not win it all. Look at the NL West Division Winners and tell me that their rotation was anything special. Yet, they won the West!
I have a feeling that Andrew Heaney is about to realize his potential, but if he doesn’t, it’s simply chump change. Maybe the Dodgers only get one year out of him. Maybe he is a bust. No biggie! A bad one-year deal for $8 Million does not cripple you – a bad 3 Year $150 Million Dollar Contrat will!
Striker Buehler and Julio Urias are now driving this train. Dustin May is due back and there are lots of options. Save your money. That’s not the path to winning. Sit back and enjoy the ride. Every year, right about this time, some of you go off the rails. Take your meds, it will all be OK. I promise!
Andrew Friedman knows that players can be found in the margins. Some pan out – some don’t. The Giants were amazingly successful in finding those players in 2021. They will not be so lucky next time!
I think that in the next few days, we will find out what is going on with Clayton Kershaw. It’s clear to me that he is weighing retirement. How his arm responds to the PRP injection may help dictate that. He is not deciding if he wants to play in Texas – he is deciding if he wants to play another season PERIOD!
Trevor Bauer – The clock is winding down. With each passing day, the likelihood of him being charged diminishes. Then what? If he is not charged, it is just an allegation… one that has already cost him half the season. The DA released a statement about that: “We are too busy releasing career criminals back into society to prosecute this case.”
Note from the AFL: Jacob Amaya, formerly no-hit – all-field, has seemingly put it all together in the Arizona Fall League. The Dodgers brought him in to work on his hitting and it is paying off:
“Amaya recorded his first three-hit game of the AFL, falling a triple short of the cycle after launching his second Arizona home run. The 23-year-old started off with a two-out single in the second, coming around to score on a two-RBI double by Anthony Mulrine (Angels). Amaya doubled in the fourth before sending the first pitch of his at-bat in the sixth over the left-field fence for a solo dinger. In his past six contests, Amaya has recorded three multihit games to raise his average from .211 on Oct. 28 to .342.”
Discussion (14)
Disagree, not disagreeable
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Marine Corps 1962-1968. Vietnam era, but never sent to Nam.
Saw a quote from AF that said the payroll was fluid. To me that sends a message that ownership is not really concerned with spending money and blowing past the CBT. Maybe I am reading it wrong. Heaney officially a Dodger now. I have seen this post be wrong a number of times, but MLB Insider on Twitter says the Dodgers are working on a 3 year deal with Scherzer. I will believe that when I see it.
Heaney passed his physical, and the Dodgers will officially announce his signing sometime this week. Cole Hamels is planning on being ready by late in the season. He wants to be almost finished with his rehab before holding another showcase. Dodgers final ranking after the season, # 2 behind the Braves. Astros were ranked 6th and Giants 8th. Rays were # 3. Hard to believe it is almost Thanksgiving. Since tomorrow is Veteran’s Day, I want to thank all my fellow Vets for their service. Check on the places near you that are offering Veterans free meals and such. I know IHOP is offering a free Red, White and Blue pancakes breakfast. So enjoy, if you like pancakes. Mantle, Mays, Snider and DiMaggio were all active in the same season once, 1951. 4 of the best who ever roamed CF anywhere in baseball. All four numbers, 4, 5, 7, and 24 were retired by their teams.
All of you are forgetting that they still have a Cy Young winner on the roster. David Price. Price cannot possibly be worn out, he has barely pitched over the last two seasons. You give Price a full spring and stretch him out, which he never was last season, and he is easily your 5th starter. At 16 mil, he is earning too much to be a swing man or a reliever. This season he was a total team player and did what they asked. Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin, Price, Heaney, White, May, Jackson, those are the starters who are on the roster right now as it stands. Now, maybe Price goes down early, or maybe some of you think the guy has forgotten how to pitch. He was 5-2 this season rarely pitching more than 4 innings. He had a 4.08 ERA in 39 games with 73.2 innings pitched. He struck out 58, His walk rate was high since he walked 26. But like I said, he was never stretched out. 11 of his 39 games were as the starter, but in his case usually as an opener. Not saying at all that he is the solution, but he is a piece that can be used. It is doubtful that any team would want Price in a trade unless LA covered a large portion of his 16 mil dollar deal. As usual since he took over at the end of 2014, we have zero information as to which FA’s or moves AF might have swirling around in his head. The GM meeting is a place where trades are explored, and none of us know who AF may have discussed with other GM’s. Tim Hyers is joining the Rangers as their new hitting coach. Yankees have contacted both Seager and Correa.
I do not believe the Dodgers will so much as sniff a free agent who has the QO!
According to a presser that Andrew Friedman gave yesterday, they want Kershaw back and expect that he will be. They have left the door open for everyone else as well but he had to say that. He specifically said that if Jansen returns it would be as closer. They apparently made an extension offer to Seager before the season ended.
The math is the trouble. They already have $205MM in salary obligations for 2022 without resigning any of their free agents. They owe Bauer $35MM so if they have to pay him they won’t likely be able to pay someone else.
The rotation is the big issue. As of now, they have Buehler, Urias, Heaney and his career 4.77 ERA, and 2 open spots. If Kershaw returns that settles 1 of them; Gonsolin has to show that he’s healthy, can pitch 5+ innings per start, etc. He hasn’t done that yet. White and Jackson are other pieces; potential but not sure things. They have youngsters who aren’t yet ready, so they have to do something else.
I don’t see Scherzer, Seager or Jansen returning under the circumstances. Maybe Taylor if he accepts the QO, but not likely otherwise.
Available FA pitchers include
Kevin Gausman
Robbie Ray
Eduardo Rodriguez
Carlos Rodon
Jon Gray
Anthony DeSclafani
Justin Verlander
Alex Wood
Steven Matz
Yusei Kikuchi
Noah Syndergaard
Alex Cobb
Zack Greinke
Cory Kluber
Danny Duffy
Tyler Anderson
Johnny Cueto
Rich Hill
Colin McHugh
James Paxton
Michael Pineda
It’s going to be an interesting off season
I might have responded…”Just like in MLB, there are no personal requests for delays, so your assignment is due as posted. However, let me be clear, unlike MLB and the Astros, cheating on the assignment will not be forgotten or forgiven.”
I thought this group might get a kick out of this email that I received the day of Game 6 of the WS. Needless to say, the request was denied 😉
“Howdy! Hello professor I know this request is a stretch but you miss 100% of the homeruns you don’t swing at. I plan on grinding the assigned homework up until the Astros game and possibly even during but, I was wondering if I am not able to complete the full 8/8 points tonight, if I could get an extension until midnight tomorrow. If you do this for me I realize it is only fair that you do it for other students but, if they cared as much as me they would send emails as well! Anyways thank you and GO STROS!”
This is the time of the year that writers throw out foolish and outlandish numbers. Yes, Max Scherzer is 38. Maybe he is pretty good next year or maybe he has some injuries and the season isn’t all that great. Three year deal? That’s probably pushing the envelope. Perhaps a two year deal worth around $30 million annually might make sense. But some GM and owner may offer more, desperation and all. Better not to get caught up in a bidding war.
Until the Dodgers or MLB resolve the Trevor Bauer issue, the Dodgers probably won’t tie up big money into another pitcher, who has considerable risk. Now maybe ownership knows that at some point MLB will suspend Bauer and free up money moving forward. Based on history doesn’t matter what the DA does, Bauer will likely face suspension. We can simply chalk off Bauer as a mistake. Once all this is done, it will be interesting to see what Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers say.
Honestly, I’d rather see the Dodgers focus their resources on retaining Corey Seager. Entering his prime, Seager can be a game changer.
Based on what Friedman said about Kershaw in this morning’s LA Times, they definitely want him back and are confident he will be ready for 2022. Apparently there is no real damage to the UCL according to the scans.
If that’s the case, the Dodgers can field a rotation of Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin , Andrew Heaney, others yet to be signed, plus a few up and coming prospects.
More than one way to build a starting rotation. Yes the Giants won 107 games and the NL West and no their starting rotation didn’t match the Dodgers.
If the Dodgers jumped out to sign Heaney that quickly they probably think they’ve figured something out to push him to the next level.
I’m guessing the Dodgers want to build a potential rotation seven or eight deep, plus prospects. After last year that makes sense.
As to math. There is higher math. There is general math, there is business math and government math. And then there is baseball math, crazy numbers and all.
Did the Athletic mention the teams that would be willing to do such a foolish signing? Fifty million a year for a soon to be 38 year old who was unable to make his final start because he threw 13 pitches to close out a game a few days before? And admitted his arm was ready to fall off. Yeah, there’s an endorsement for that kind of signing. How do many of these baseball writers or analysts actually get paid to come up with such nonsense? We get much more informed thoughts and opinions here at LADT.
So the Dodgers are gambling $8 million that Heaney could be “the next Robbie Ray.”
Well, why not use some of that money to get the actual Robbie Ray?
If Heaney and his vaunted spin rate moves from depth to stud, that would be peachy. But it’s a puzzlement.
While considering Heaney’s payday, let’s recall that Farhan signed both Alex Wood and Jake McGee for a combined sum of about $6.5 million for the year. The Dodgers let them go as FAs and they wound up being a big part of the reason the Giants won the division.
Yes, yes–Farhan could promise Wood that he’d start and McGee that he would close. But did AF offer them much more? Did Wood and/or McGee ever say something like, “The Dodgers are offering me a million more but I’m not hearing the promises I want to hear?” I doubt it.
Now, I was OK with Wood moving on because I prefered May and Gonsolin. (I never prefered Bauer. What a mistake that was.) But I did think letting a lefty power reliever like McGee go was a big mistake.
But come to think, Bauer and now Heaney both may illustrate how the Dodgers just don’t seem to be interested in bargains. Farhan went shopping for bargains and hit it big. (AF also invested more in Knebel and Kahnle–and Kahnle hasn’t thrown a pitch yet. )
Yeah, AF did well picking up Bickford and landing Vesia in a trade. The draft has delivered promising arms like Miller and Pepiot. But who are the FA bargains lately?
Maybe AF really should just avoid the free agents. The Dodgers seem better at acquiring talent in other ways.