Now that the WS is over, the MLB calendar is set (maybe). Maybe because we have no idea what will become of the CBA after the current CBA expires on 12-1. Tentatively, the MLB dates:
November 3 – 160 players were declared Free Agents. The Dodgers have 11.
November 3 – 7 – Free agents can only negotiate with their most recent team.
November 7 – Options must be exercised.
November 7 – Open Free Agency begins
November 7 – Deadline to offer free agents qualifying offer (approximately $18.4MM)
November 7 – Gold Glove Winners announced (live ESPN broadcast). Dodgers have three finalists: Max Muncy (1B), AJ Pollock (LF), Mookie Betts (RF).
November 8 – Finalists for MLB Major Awards will be announced by MLB network.
November 9 – 11 – GM and Owners Meetings, Carlsbad, CA
November 11 – Louisville Silver Slugger Awards announced on MLB Network.
November 15 – HOF Ballots released. Final year of eligibility for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling. Most notable first year eligible players are Big Papi (David Ortiz) and Alex Rodriguez.
November 15 – Rookie of the Year winners announced on MLB Network.
November 16 – Manager of the Year winners announced on MB Network.
November 17 – Cy Young Award winners announced on MLB Network. (Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Julio Urias will get votes.
November 17 – Date for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers.
November 18 – MVP Award winners announced on MLB Network.
November 19 – 40 man rosters are set for Rule 5 Draft purposes.
December 1 – Non-tender date for players not under contract.
December 1 – Current CBA is due to expire 11:59 PM ET.
December 6 – 9 – Winter Meetings scheduled for Orlando, FL.
December 9 – Rule 5 Draft
January 14 – Deadline for players and teams to submit salary arbitration figures.
January 15 – International Signing Date – LAD is poised to sign two of the top 50 international prospects. #7, LHH INF Samuel Munoz, San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, and #37, RHP Accima Morales, Maracay, Venezuela
January 20 – HOF inductees announced
January 31 – February 18 – Arbitration hearings
February 16 (approximately) – Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training
February 26 – LAD first spring training game vs Cubs.
March 31 – Opening Day. LAD opens at home vs. Colorado Rockies.
After the 60 day IL players are added back to the roster, the Dodgers have 40 players on the 40 man roster, INCLUDING Trevor Bauer. The Dodgers will need to pare that number down to create roster spots for expected FA signings and MiLB players expected to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft.
The roster needs to be set by November 19. Thus, there are 15 days to determine which MiLB players will be protected and which MLB players will be released. The Dodgers have approximately 55 players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Most of the 55 have already been passed over in prior years. This year I expect the Dodgers to protect two…Left Hand Hitting OF James Outman and SS Jacob Amaya. Do they gamble and protect Eddys Leonard (21 and playing only at A+ for part of 2021)? Maybe, but probably not. I assume some bloggers will want to protect RHP Michael Grove (25 year old RHSP). While he improved over the last part of the season, he is not going to stick on a 26 man roster for the entire 2022 season. Another borderline candidate is 22 year old LHSP Robinson Ortiz, however, again can he stick with a 26 man roster for the entire season while only pitching at level A+ and injured for most of the year? Potential losses under my scenario COULD be Eddys Leonard and Robinson Ortiz, 1B/OF Ryan Noda (26 next year), Utility INF Devin Mann (25), 1B Justin Yurchak (25), 3B Cristian Santana (25), 2B Omar Estevez (24), and RHRP Guillermo Zuniga (23), RHRP Marshall Kasowski (27). There are a large number of prospects I would protect at the MiLB level.
Since the MiLB players have to be protected by November 19, two to three spots need to be cleared per my non-educated GUESS.
Joe Kelly since his option will not be picked up.
Jimmy Sherfy – Zero options and zero chance to make 26 man roster
Andrew Vazquez – 28 year old LHRP
Billy McKinney – Zero options and probably not going to make 26 man roster
Next Group:
Zach Reks – 28 year old LHH OF
Luke Raley – 27 year old LHH OF
Darien Nunez – 29 year old LHRP
Not likely at November 19 is Andy Burns. He is 31, but he has two options, and is a RHH 3B. However certainly a consideration for being released at a later time.
Evan Phillips has run out of options, although I would project him to handily make the 26 man roster and stick.
Dodgers eligible for arbitration are as follows:
Trea Turner – Projected $19.8MM
Scott Alexander – Projected $1.3MM
Cody Bellinger – Projected $16.1MM
Julio Urias – Projected $8.8MM
Caleb Ferguson – Projected $700K
Of this group, I can see Scott Alexander being non-tendered. But he does have 1 more option and $1.3MM is not cumbersome for LAD. OTOH, AF can add $1.3MM to a better contract for a better reliever.
The Dodgers have plenty of room to protect Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects and sign free agents.
I know that there are a lot of fans of James Outman. I am one of them. However, before anyone starts adding him to the 26 man roster during the season, we might compare his numbers to a more gifted defensive CF with lofty power expectations…DJ Peters.
This year as a 24 year old, Outman played in Tulsa (187 PA) and Great Lakes (A+ – 304 PA) – Combined he slashed .266/.379/.490/.869 and 18 HR, while at Tulsa he slashed .289/.369/.518/.887 and 9 HR.
DJ Peters at 22 at Tulsa hit .236/.320/.473/.793 with 29 HRs. At 23 with Tulsa and OKC, DJ hit a combined .249/.358/.453/.811 and 23 HR.
Zach Reks put up some big numbers at AAA. In two seasons, Zach hit .282/.382/.529/.911 and 38 HR in 764 PA. In addition, Luke Raley in two seasons at AAA slashed .296/.384/.553/.937 and 26 HR in 456 PA. Yes, they were older, but they still produced very well at a higher level. If Reks and Raley struggled at MLB, it is very difficult to conceive that Outman will be productive with LAD in 2022. But he could make another roster (Pittsburgh, Arizona, Baltimore, and others). Like Reks and Raley, Outman is LHH, so they do appear to be interchangeable, with Outman the youngest.
Another of my favorites is Jacob Amaya who is a legit fielding SS with an improving bat during the second half of his Tulsa season and at the Arizona Fall League. In 34 PA in the AFL, he has a slash line of .269/.441/.423/.864. Small sample size, but with his glove, he could be hid by a lower tier ballclub.
There are a lot of moving pieces. Will Clayton Kershaw get an incentive laden contract before November 19? Will there be any players released from other teams that AF likes? He has been known to do so. Will there be any trades of players on the 40 man for lower level lottery pick prospects? All I and everyone else not employed by LAD can do is speculate with the information we can gather. It is not settled science, but it is puzzle that generates a lot of interest and fun.
Go ahead and make your own projections.
Discussion (20)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Red Sox claimed Locastro.
I should preface what I am about to say with my recognition of what Muncy has meant to the Dodgers. He has been clutch and he has shown his teammates how important it is to walk, get on base, and be patient. He was missed in this year’s playoffs. Too many times we saw Dodger hitters swing at pitches they should have taken or should have tried to go with the pitch. That said, I would trade Muncy for the right player.
I would like to see the Dodger defence get even stronger and I would start with trading for third baseman Matt Chapman of the A’s. Now that I don’t have a spot for Seager at third I would either not re-sign him or move him to first base. I wouldn’t mind if Bellinger played first though if the Dodgers traded for Byron Buxton to play CF and hope he can stay healthy.
I would not sign Scherzer. Too costly. Let the Angels have him. I hope Kershaw retires. Now I have a rotation problem. I’ll let Friedman pickup after me.
Buster Posey made a decision to retire before his skills declined to spend more time with his family. I wonder if his retirement will have any effect on Kershaw’s decision to play another year(s) or retire now. He has been really stubborn about wanting to stay in games, maybe when he should have allowed Roberts to replace him with a reliever. But he is not in the heat of the moment now.
The Dodgers will not feel like the Dodgers if Kershaw, Seager, Taylor leave combined with Turner maybe playing half as much next year. With Joc and Keeque already off the team, it is going to feel like the gang is gone. I should mention Jansen. There, I just did.
I still miss some of the old Dodger teams and it is going to feel like the 2020 Dodger team is about to be one of the teams that we add to the other old Dodger teams we loved and are gone.
Alexander, Sherfey and Burns outrighted today so the Roster sits at 37. Making room for rule 5’s? Coulda cut a bit deeper IMHO.
OK gang, here’s an interesting bit of news:
Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted around the end of this month.
Granted, he’s played his whole career in Japan, but there is lots to like here.
27 years old. Lifetime .315/.415/.571. More walks than strike outs. Last year 38 homers, 1.075 OPS.
Right handed hitting outfielder with a great arm, but has also played third and short.
He could play third next year (assuming an NL DH) and then move to outfield when Pollock leaves.
Bidding will be intense on this guy and I’m sure the Giants will be in on him but I’d love to see us roll up our sleeves and really go after him.
Reds waived Wade Miley and the Cubs picked him up. Miley has a $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Cubs did not get him to pay $1MM to buy him out, so they plan on Miley being in their rotation in 2022. Cannot believe the Reds let him go for $10MM. It is not like they have a lot of alternatives. With Castellanos opting out, I am not sure what the Reds are expecting. I expect the Reds to listen on offers for Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo. As bad as Eugenio Suarez was last year, his power numbers certainly fit with LAD, and you could find a worse bench bat than Suarez, and a potential bounceback. His contract has 3 years at $11MM annual remaining and a $15MM option for 2025 (no buyout reported). Very expensive for 2021 results, but not so much for 2017-2019 results. Dodgers seem to like players from Venezuela. Have not really mulled it around a lot, but it will go into my bench possibilities thought process.
Joc Pederson is a free agent again. He declined his mutual option with the Braves. More and more players being added to the free agent list. Will be an interesting off season if they can get the CBA done early enough.
Andrew Chafin was a stud last year and the year before. Relievers are odd that way. He really didn’t figure it out until his age 30 season. I doubt he will be a break the bank guy with 5 saves last year.
I made the argument yesterday that I’m not sure the Dodgers need to bring back Kenley with so many other bullpen options we have under team control. TM replied with a list of 4 Braves pitchers who pitched in practically all of their wins. Here’s those 4 Braves pitchers, Age and regular season stats for ERA WHIP and Ave Against…
Minter (28) 3.78 1.22 .226
Matzek (31) 2.57 1.22 .182
Jackson (30) 1.98 1.16 .198
Smith (32) 3.44 1.13 .198
Those guys were studs during the season for the most part and we know what they did in the postseason. But, the Dodgers are setup going into next year with very comparable production. Here’s just 6 of our guys…
Bickford (26) 2.81 1.07 .197
Treinen (33) 1.99 0.98 .179
Vesia (25) 2.25 0.98 .126
Bruihl (24) 2.89 1.07 .203
Phillips (27) 3.38 1.20 .212
Kahnle (32) 3.67 1.06 .200 ** Last full season 2019
Here’s Jansen for reference
Jansen (34) 2.22 1.04 .153
So, we already have 6 guys that are comparable to the Braves’ big 4. After that we still have Graterol and V-Gone who where main guys in our 2020 championship pen. Then we also have Ferguson and Cleavinger and whichever swingmen that might be converted into full time bullpen roles including Gonsolin, White and Jackson and then David Price also exists.
My argument was more about order of importance and needs to fill. With all those guys, adding a Chafin or bringing back Jansen is a luxury. When you only have 2 starters, adding starting pitching is a priority. Trying to replace Seager’s production with Lux is at the very least, a risk that needs to be mitigated.
It’s funny that our bullpen was viewed as a weak link early in the season. Going into the offseason it is the area of strength that probably doesn’t need to be improved, even with the loss of Jansen.
Here’s one way to look at the pen. We’re losing 4 guys that pitched some quality innings for us this offseason including our long time and borderline HOF closer. If you look at Knebel and Nelson, I think there was more overlap with both on the IL than there was with both on the roster. So, those 2 very good arms really add up to one healthy arm. Kelly, likewise spends time on the IL or ineffective each year we had him. Jansen is the big loss. Kahnle and Ferguson will be back next year, so you’re already replacing 2 guys. Treinen can step into Kenley’s role and Kahnle into Treinen’s. Ferguson and others will have to make up for the 3 often injured guys. I think we’re close to breaking even with no other moves.
It appears to me that Leonard is Rule 5 eligible. If he makes similar strides in 2022, he can be a factor soon. I protect him! I would not protect Grove, even though I like him. I don’t think someone will take him and keep him.
If I could have last year’s Andrew Chafin, I would take him, but you might get another version. He is worth a look, but I would not break the bank. As usual, to many Dodger fans, he is the “Flavor-of-the-week!”
Above Dodgerrick mentioned that Dustin Nosler indicates that Eddys Leonard does not need to be protected this year because while he was signed in 2017, he did not begin to play until 2018. This is the norm for international signees that were signed during the summer. But that year does constitute a season.
Everything I am reading says that the clock starts at the signing date, and not start of play date. I am still looking for more evidence, but the current rules seem to emanate from the 2007-2011 CBA. I cannot see anything (yet) in the current CBA that discusses Rule 5 draft, nor in the 2012-2016 CBA. Therefore, the existing 2007-2011 rules apply for the 2017-2021 CBA. Again, everything I can find says that a player who signs at 19 or older is eligible to be drafted after 4 seasons, and players who sign at 18 or younger are eligible to be drafted after 5 seasons. There is no discussion (that I can find) that says the player has to play the year he is signed for that year to start the clock. The only consideration is when the player was signed.
Eddys Leonard was signed to a MiLB contract in July 2017. His fifth year would be after 2021 which would indicate that he is eligible for the MLB portion Rule 5 this year. I found Keibert Ruiz who signed in 2014 and had to be protected after 2018. He did not start playing until 2015, so his Rule 5 clock started when he signed. I also found another player, Gilberto Celestino, who was signed July 2015 (did not play until 2016) and needed to be protected after 2019 season.
So, unless there was a change in the 2017 CBA that I cannot find (yet), Eddys Leonard seems to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year.
Per the below article on the history of Rule 5 draft:
https://www.mlb.com/news/complete-history-of-the-mlb-rule-5-draft-c210225288
“In 2006, the pool of players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft shrunk, per the terms of a new CBA. Unprotected players now must be four or five seasons removed from signing, depending on whether they did so before turning 19.” It states “removed from signing” not from first playing.
Per the below Forbes article on the 2017-2021 CBA, the author discusses the changes to the CBA, and the Rule 5 draft is not discussed.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2016/11/30/breaking-down-mlbs-new-2017-21-collective-bargaining-agreement/?sh=718a61911b9b
Per Fangraphs RosterResource, other July 2017 international signees who did not play until 2018 and are considered Rule 5 eligible this year are:
Jorbit Vivas, Yunior Garcia, Jeisson Cabrera, and Benony Robles.
The Resource is consistent in that all July 2018 international signees who did not play until 2019 are eligible for the Rule 5 draft next year. This group includes Diego Cartaya, Alex De Jesus, Jose Ramos, and Jerming Rosario. Next year’s protection list will also include Miguel Vargas who was signed in September 2017. However, since the 2017 season was completed, his clock did not start until the 2018 season.
I have also included below a link to the existing 2017-2021 CBA in its entirety. If anyone can find anything regarding the Rule 5 draft, please advise. I could not find anything pertaining to the Rule 5 draft.
https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf
I am not going to say Dustin Nosler is wrong, but I am going to follow the Fangraphs RosterResource as my source, and use those dates until proven otherwise. Regardless, we will see who gets protected in about 2 weeks, and who is drafted next month (if there is a Rule 5 draft next month). If there is no CBA, can there be a Rule 5 draft?
Chafin declined to exercise his option and is a free agent. Duvall declined his too, but is arbitration eligible. Avasail Garcia and Kevin Pillar are both now free agents. Andrew McCutcheon and Odubel Herrera free agents also.
Bear,
Interesting article at WSJ ($$$) about how the lack of truck drivers has contributed to supply chain issues.
Thought you would enjoy it.
I just watched a video with predictions for the top 10 free agent landing spots. Here’s my takes.
Kershaw to the Angels – Not a chance in hell, he’ll be back with the Dodgers
Robbie Ray coming back to the Jays – As good a place as any.
Kris Bryant to the Brewers. Their payroll is already higher than it historically is, but they need a bat and they got a lot of pitching. I just can’t see them throwing that kind of cash around. But hey, they did for Yelich and Cain and Cain only has one more year remaining on his deal.
Scherzer to the Dodgers. Yes please. Perfect fit. He wants to win, the Dodgers can afford to rest him. He looked like he loved it here.
Story to the Mariners – I love this move. Who says the M’s won’t compete with Houston next year?
Baez back to the Mets – He seemed to fit in really well with that team. I think there’s a good chance if he doesn’t mind staying at 2B.
Carlos Correa to the Tigers. Do the Tigers really think they’re that close? They have money after saving money for a few years and have been willing to spend big in the past. Miggy’s boat anchor looms large.
Corey Seager back to the Dodgers – I want this to happen, my gut is undecided. With Trea Turner in the fold, they won’t get into a bidding war, so there’s a change he winds up with the Yankees.
Marcus Semien to Miami – Hahahahahaha. I can see him landing with the Yankees. Cheaper contract and shorter commitment than Seags.
Freddie Freeman back to the Braves – Seems like a no brainer. He’s their Clayton Kershaw, without the injuries and declining performance.
So, with the Dodgers locking up Kershaw, Scherzer and Seags, is there any money left for Kenley and CT3? I feel strongly that CT3 will more on for a better opportunity like Joc and Kike. Kenley is up in the air for me. I wonder if he’ll come back at half price. The Dodgers don’t need to spend $10M on any reliever with the arms they already have. I’d rather spend that kind of Chedder on Donovan Solano to improve the bench from the right side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrkoIMaloFs
Interesting stuff. Since I am not very schooled on international signings, and how that all works, it is nice to know what can be expected. Dodgers have lost a few over the years who have gone on to have decent careers, but not many. Best player they ever lost in the rule 5 draft was Clemente. I think, and Jeff could concur or tell me I am full of it, but I believe Shane Victorino was claimed as a rule 5 guy from the Dodgers twice.
“The Dodgers have 40 players on the 40 man roster, INCLUDING Trevor Bauer. The Dodgers will need to pare that number down to create roster spots for expected FA signings and MiLB players expected to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft.”
It would be nice if MLB would make some decision on TB so AF can take that account when setting rosters.
According to Dustin Nosler at Dodgers Digest, Leonard doesn’t have to be protected yet because while he signed in July 2017, he didn’t make his professional debut until 2018, which gives him another year.
This is for Mark…. Reds’ Nick Castellanos opts out of contract, becomes free agent. If I remember correctly you have been rooting for him to become a Dodger for several years now???
Great writeup. Thanks for the info
Nice job as always AC. When it comes to the Rule 5 draft, It’s really hard for me to come up with a strategy on who to protect and who not to. Of course you have to consider who is likely to stick and who isn’t on another team’s roster and how far from the MLB in years the particular individual is from helping the big club. We’re all a bit of prospect huggers to some extent, so we want most to stay on the team. But, generally it’s a good thing that players who are blocked will get a chance with another team.
The thing I don’t particularly like about the Rule 5 draft is when you’re forced to make a decision on a guys like, soon to be 21 year old, Eddys Leonard. At just 21 years, an age when most collegiate draft picks are selected in the amature draft, it isn’t reasonable to expect the player to be ready for the bigs. I think it’s fair to assume at age 23 or 24 you should be expected to stick on a roster if you have have shown you have to the skills to be a contributing MLB ballplayer. But, at just 21 I believe is unreasonable to expect the same. Unfortunately, this is where we’re at under the current rules.
Another consideration to take into account is where a player falls within the depth at both the big league level and minor league level. I’ll use Justin Yurchak as an example. He’s a pretty one dimensional ballplayer and is limited defensively to 1B. But, boy can he rake. Unfortunately for him, you need some power at the position unless you’re Jon Olerud or Mark Grace. Justin is not Jon or Mark with the glove. Who knows what he’ll be with the bat, but that lofty average to tempting to get a further look at. With Muncy, Rios and Beaty at the big league level and “Fat Boy” in the minors who probably eventually moves over to 1st base the decision to protect him becomes more complicated.
My two sense on some of the names listed in AC’s post…
Eddys Leonard – Protect – This is the easiest one for me. I just compared him to the Giants top shortstop prospect. He’s the same age and put up better numbers almost across the board. There’s no way I let him get away.
James Outman – Protect – This one is pretty easy as well. As bad as McKinny, Recks and Raley hit last year, Outman probably couldn’t do any worse. His glove stands out and he’s got some pop like Raley.
Ryan Noda – Unprotect – Noda’s on the fence for me. He’s Luke Raley with a better glove and worse BA.
Jacob Amaya – Unprotected – I live the kid since he’s from my home town of El Monte, CA. But, he doesn’t hit enough to justify protection.
Devin Mann – Unprotected – He’s another borderline guy for me. But, he’s not as good as others that play the same position. He’s effectively blocked.
Justin Yuchak – Unprotected – Matt Beaty 2.0. I love that batting average, but not much else. James Loney without the glove.
Christian Santana – Unprotected – I’m on the fence with him and he’s probably the most likely to stick on another team. Not enough power to stick at 3rd and Miguel Vargas passed him up on the list of 3B.
Omar Estevez – Unprotected – Horrible showing last year at AAA should scare enough teams away from him.
Michael Grove – Protected – The only pitcher on this list. He probably won’t stick on another team, but he’s got a big enough arm and the pedigree of a second round pick, I just don’t want to risk seeing him go and being stashed in the Ranger’s bullpen.
Ortiz, Zuniga, Kasowski – With so many better pitchers in the system, I don’t waste a spot on any of them.
Non Tender Candidates – I might revisit the protect list after making some cuts. But, for now I’m only prioritizing 3 players that must be protected.
Scott Alexander – Non Tender. He’s a very mediocre pitcher and he’s another lefthander in a sea of left handed bullpen arms currently on the roster.
Joe Kelly – I love this guy, but the latest injury makes him uncertain for next year. I would love to bring him back on a minor league deal.
Jimmy Sherfy – Non Tender – No explanation needed.
Andrew Vasquez – Non Tender – See Jimmy Sherfey.
Bill McKinney – Non Tender – do better with a free agent signing.
Zach Recks – Non Tender – His gloves looks worse than I thought.
Luke Raley – Tender – Since there’s no one else, you have to keep someone. I love the power potential.
Darien Nunez – Tender. Very good fastball and incredible change up. Just needs some seasoning.
Andy Burns – Non Tender – See Billy McKinney
Evan Phillips – Tender No Brainer.
I wouldn’t risk not protecting Eddys Leonard. He jumped from RC to GL last year and didn’t miss a beat. Almost the same stat line. Some low level team like the Pirates or Orioles might very well be willing to keep him on the roster all year. Better safe than sorry.