I Am No Kool-Aid Drinker
I am an unabashed and unapologetic supporter of FAZ. They have built a tremendous team and know how to utilize a full 40 man roster to their advantage because they have the depth to do so. I also believe that a winning TEAM is greater than the sum of the individual players. Clayton Kershaw is special. There is no question of that. But he is one of 40, and I
I am an unabashed and unapologetic supporter of FAZ. They have built a tremendous team and know how to utilize a full 40 man roster to their advantage because they have the depth to do so. I also believe that a winning TEAM is greater than the sum of the individual players. Clayton Kershaw is special. There is no question of that. But he is one of 40, and I believe that the other 39 players together can help to offset the loss of the one. No single pitcher can replace Clayton Kershaw. But that does not mean they cannot win without him, it is just going to be a lot more difficult. I think the moment you concede that your hopes are unrealistic of winning a championship without one player, then you will be correct 100% of the time, and you can begin your “I told you so’s”.
In 1968, Earl Morrall replaced a quarterback legend, the Baltimore Colts’ Johnny Unitas, due to an injury in the last pre-season game. Morrall guided the Colts to a 13-1 record, 2 playoff victories before losing Super Bowl III to Joe Namath and the Jets. Two years later, Morrall replaced Unitas for Super Bowl V, and this time brought a world title to the Colts. Now nobody is saying or implying that Earl Morrall is a better quarterback than Johnny Unitas, but the Colts were a great team and were able to overcome a disaster like losing Johnny U. Conversely, Dan Marino is arguably the greatest quarterback ever to play in the NFL to never win a Super Bowl. In fact, as great as he was, he appeared in only one Super Bowl.
We can all come up with anecdotes to support our individual beliefs or biases. I am one that believes that the team is greater than the individual. Others can and do see it different. That does not make one camp right, and the other one wrong. It is just a different way of looking at how to build a champion.
However, just because I believe in the team over the sum of the individual players does not mean that I do not believe that there cannot be improvements. I AM NOT A KOOL-AID DRINKER. I believe that FAZ has built the best team for a 162 game season. No team has the depth that the Dodgers have. I am not sure that any team is close in that regard. But the team is built for a long 162 game season. Are they built to win in a short series? That is a fair and legitimate question. The playoffs are a best of 5, and 2 best of 7 game short series where individuals can in fact rise to the occasion. So while I believe the Dodgers can win with Kershaw/Wood/Hill and Maeda/McCarthy/Ryu, I would prefer a solid top of the rotation RHSP in that mix. The Dodgers would be better with Gray or Darvish. The Dodgers would be better with Justin Wilson as the 8th inning setup. The Dodgers and their 11.5 game lead can afford to trade for Zach Britton and monitor his innings until the playoffs. Andrew Miller is not available but the Dodgers would be stronger with Morrow/Fields/Baez/Britton or Wilson as the bridge to get to Jansen. Ryu and Maeda or McCarthy (assuming one is #4 SP) can move to the pen with Stewart and Dayton/Avilan/Stripling to fill in if needed. The last two WS champions had superior bullpens. It was also MadBum coming in from the bullpen in Game 7 that won 2014 WS.
But like everything we want, there is a cost associated with the acquisition. I want a Porsche 911 Carrera. But it would put a big hurt in my retirement if I followed my desires and bought the Porsche. The Dodgers are fortunate to have the FO that values a farm system and can trade some of the coveted players from a surplus. The Dodgers have a wealth of RHSP in their system. They all cannot play for the ML team. Brock Stewart, Walker Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Mitchell White, Trevor Oaks, Jordan Sheffield, Dennis Santana, Josh Sborz, Imani Abdullah, Scott Barlow, Wilmer Font, Andrew Sopko, Dustin May, AJ Alexy, and Devin Smeltzer. How long before Morgan Cooper and James Marinan join that group, or Caleb Ferguson (LHP) and Melvin Jimenez. Or a multitude of DSL and AZL pitchers. Of that group, only Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez rate Ace potential (right now). Stewart and White seem to be solid mid-rotation candidates. May and Santana could get to mid-rotation as well. Not including current year draft choices or Jimenez, the others have a ceiling of back end rotation and bullpen. Some could be high leverage relievers (Sheffield/Sborz). More than half of these pitchers have greater ceilings and floors than Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas, and Grant Holmes (yes, IMO with no scouting background).
Willie Calhoun and Edwin Rios are solid power hitters, a trait the Dodgers covet. But where do they play? The DH may in fact come to the NL, but when? Calhoun is ready now. Rios probably sometime next year. DJ Peters is not far behind, but he can play all three OF positions. Ibandel Isabel is probably in the Calhoun/Rios category. I am sure the Dodgers will find a quality DH if and when the DH comes to the NL. Yusniel Diaz and Starling Heredia are two high ceiling potential OF. They are just not at the Alex Verdugo level…yet. And Jeren Kendall may be the best of the bunch offensively and defensively. When is he penciled in? What happens with Henry Ramos? Could he be another find like Andrew Toles? What about Kyle Garlick/Luke Raley/Tyler Adkison/Zach Reks/Cody Thomas/Carlos Rincon/Jacob Scavuzzo. Many of these are potential Scott Schebler type power hitters. It is just knowing which ones are real and which ones may not be. That is where good scouting comes in play.
The Dodgers have three solid catching prospects in Will Smith, Keibert Ruiz, and Kyle Farmer. With Grandal and Barnes on the roster do they really need all of Smith/Ruiz/Farmer? There are also two to three solid potential prospects in the lower rookie leagues that may impress in the next couple of years (not to forget 2017 3rd round draft pick Connor Wong).
I am not sure that the Dodgers have any sure fire middle infield can’t miss prospects. But they have several that can and will make the ML at least as a utility player. Drew Maggi/Jose Miguel Fernandez/Tim Locastro/Drew Jackson/Omar Estevez/Brandon Davis/Ronnie Brito/Gavin Lux/Errol Robinson/Erick Mejia/Oneil Cruz/Moises Perez/Jacob Amaya all have potential. Corner infielders like Cristian Santana/Matt Beaty/Nick Yarnall/Michael Ahmed also have potential (especially Santana).
The Dodgers may have four top 100 players, but they probably lead MLB in the 101-200 prospect range, and the last time I checked, ML rosters are full of those guys with that label. The Dodgers are full of Cotton/Montas/Holmes caliber pitchers. FAZ is just better at determining who is better, and packaging others to get a needed piece. Could they gamble with Verdugo believing in what they have in Kendall? To me, the only untouchable is Buehler, followed by Alvarez and Verdugo, and then White. I am not including Stewart in the discussion because he is already on the 25 man, and they can ill afford to trade him this year.
I too am tired of the “Wait Until Next Year” mantra. 29 years is long enough. This team seems special, and with a little help, they can become prohibitive favorites. It may sting, but it will not hemorrhage the farm system. Some of our favorites may end up with the A’s or Tigers or Rangers or Phillies or Mets or Pirates, and you can bet I will follow them. But if FAZ believes that Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish or Justin Wilson or Pat Neshek or Addison Reed or Tony Watson or even Justin Verlander can help the team without sacrificing the luxury tax or farm system then I am in. I do not see them messing with the position players, but top of the rotation starting pitching and high leverage relief pitching can cement an already solid team.
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Discussion (103)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I do not know why you guys want a SP. We need a LHRP. I want Wilson. If we have to take Verlander to get Wilson, I would do it , if we can manage the luxary tax
Unthreatening???? WTF
In the WS….
Bobby – hope you are well.
Did I miss something?
I thought the winner of the AS Game had home field advantage unthreatening WS?
Earl Morral almost single handedly cost the Colts Super Bowl 3. He was so bad that Bubba Smith accused him of throwing the game. I was a Baltimore Colts fan prior to an Indy fan.
Box, I agree with you above. Kendall has star power! Joc, you are our temporary CF my friend!
Bill Russell, yes, I would trade Verdugo for Sonny Gray. Gota give to get.
We are 69-31. If we suck for the rest of the way, and go .500, we finish with 100 wins. That means we most most likely have home field in NLDS, most likely have home field in NLCS, and likely have home field in the WS (I still feel Boston would beat Houston in an ALCS). Therefore, it’s time to think about our postseason roster, and not our current roster. And I agree with AlwaysCompete above; we need right handed #2. We need that “wipeout leftie”, as Dave Roberts said last night. We also need Logan Forsythe, or someone else, to step up in the 5 hole. CT3, Seager, JT, and Belli are the top 4 going forward. Who gets that clutch RBI in the 5 hole, before Joc/Grandal/Puig come up?
I just heard that Oakland would be looking for a top notch CF back in the Sonny Gray trade. Would the Dodgers include either Pederson or Verdugo? I guess if they wanted Gray they would have to.
AC!!
WOW!!
Thanks for taking the time to not only have a take but to write that take so eloquently.
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I don’t think opposing GMs want to stick it to FAZ. I certainly don’t hear FAZ moaning over how bad they are treated by other GMs. I do think GMs want to get another team’s top prospects in exchange for a key veteran at the trading deadline.
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To us that feels like GMs want a team’s top 5 prospects regardless of their MLB rank. A team’s #3 ranked prospect that is ranked #25 in the MLB is pitted against another teams #3 that is ranked #55 in the MLB. Again, it feels like one team is forced to offer their MLB #25 or lose out to another team’s MLB #55.
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That thinking would explain why Arizona got Martinez instead of the Dodgers but I don’t think the Dodgers wanted Martinez because they were happier with what they already had that hit from the right side LF and 2B and preferred the options that had against righties in CF and RF.
Great read Mark. That is exactly how I feel but could not have expressed as well as you did. Bellinger is on fire. Grandal , Pederson , CT3 and Turner all had a hand in last nights victory. I’m at the game tonight in section 3. I’ll be wearing my LA Dodger Talk blue baseball hat. Odds are they will win tonight because the last 2 times I attended they lost.
On the new MLB Top 100 Prospect List, the Dodgers have six players:
#13 – Walker Buehler
#28 – Alex Verdugo
#51 – Yadier Alvarez
#71 – Willie Calhoun
#86 – Jeren Kendall
#89 – Yusneil Diaz
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I am going to suggest as AC did that the next 100 players have a ton of Dodgers on the list.
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Mitch White, Keibert Ruiz, Will Smith, Dennis Santana, DJ Peters and Morgan Cooper could all be close….
Great article, as usual. Loved the Porsche analogy. I guess it is too much to expect that something like this would happen to FAZ.
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A sixteen-year-old came home with a Porsche, and his parents began to yell and scream, “Where did you get that car?”
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He calmly told them, “I bought it today.”
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“With what money?” demanded his parents. “We know what a Porsche costs.”
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“Well,” said the boy, “this one cost me fifteen dollars.”
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The parents began to yell even louder. “Who would sell a car like that for $15.00?” they asked.
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“It was the lady up the street,” said the boy. Don’t know her name — they just moved in. She saw me ride past on my bike and asked me if I wanted to buy a Porsche for $15.00.”
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“Oh my goodness!” moaned the mother, “she must be a child abuser. Who knows what she will do next? John, you go right up there and see what’s going on.”
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So the boy’s father walked up the street to the house where the lady lived and found her out in the yard calmly tending to the flowers. He introduced himself as the father of the boy to whom she had sold a Porsche for fifteen dollars and demanded to know why she did it.
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“Well,” she said, “this morning I got a phone call from my husband. I thought he was on a business trip, but I learned from a friend he has run off to Hawaii with his secretary.
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Then apparently she stole all his money and stranded him there. Well he called me, without a dollar to his name and asked me to sell his Porsche and send him the money.
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So that’s exactly what I did.”
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Well maybe the Marlins will sell us a Porsche for $15.
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It is clear that the Dodgers have a rich/deep farm system. I don’t think anyone is against trading some of the prospects to improve and bring home the GOLD this year, including FAZ. The reason I don’t think it has already happened is the other teams really want to stick it to FAZ. I am sure FAZ is weighing the options and the cost/benefit of trading. I trust them to make the right decision. The GREAT under the radar moves are stacking up in FAZ’s favor, probably also makes the other teams hesitant to trade with Dodgers.
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An aside, Sounds like the farm is a little lean in the left handed pitching department, also third base. I gotta believe FAZ is also looking to trade from areas of strength to fill in the gaps. Love to see some quantity for quality prospect trades also.
The problem for FAZ is to figure out which players can and cannot be traded. Which players are blocked and which players are not blocked. He is going to trade a player or two who are going to be very good for another team. I do not care if that happens. Schebler has done very well for Cincinnati. Is he better than any of our three outfielders we have now? I say no. I would like to have a good LHRP. If we have to over pay this year to get one, I would do it. This team is special. What a message it would send to all the players and Dodger fans.
In communicating with Mark, he said, great start by Santana in AA. Dennis Santana went 5 innings in his AA debut, and got the win. He allowed 2 runs on 4 hits, 2 BB, 6 K. Dennis Santana is quick to remind us that there are great arms (Yadier Alvarez), and there are pitchers (Dennis Santana). While Alvarez has received the headlines with his electric arm, all Dennis Santana has done is outpitch him last year at Great Lakes, and this year at Rancho, and so far at Tulsa. That is not to say that he will continue to do so, but Santana is rocketing up the Dodgers prospect list. He has made it to #5 on one mid-season list that I can remember. Santana has a plus fastball and a plus slider. He needs to develop his change so as to become a solid mid rotation type starter. If the change does not come, he will become a high leverage late inning reliever. But I would not bet against him on improving that change. In Tulsa’s 6-4 win over the Springfield Cardinals, Darrien Tubbs had three hits, while Errol Robinson and Peter O’Brien had 2 hits, while Matt Beaty slugged his 11th HR.
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Rancho was shutout by the Lancaster JetHawks (Rockies) 3-0 – No standout performances. Let’s move on.
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Great Lakes 2-1 win over Quad Cities River Banks (Astros) – Leo Crawford got back to his solid pitching going a strong 8 innings and getting the win. He allowed the one run on 4 hits, 1BB, and 6K. Andre Scrubb got the save. I still believe that Leo Crawford has a future.
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The story at Ogden continues to be Jeren Kendall. He had three more hits, including a double. But the real story so far is his lack of strikeouts. In his 22 AB, he has but 3 strikeouts. He is still a free swinger as he has yet to walk. He has for stolen bases in 4 attempts, and plays a tremendous defensive CF. He is going to be fun to watch. It may not take long. Oh yeah, Christian Stolo/Justin Lewis/Patrick Duester/James Carter combined to pitch the Raptors to a 5-1 win over the Helena Brewers.
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In the AZL Dodgers 6-1 win over the AZL Padres, 5 pitchers combined for the win. Four of the five were current year draft picks; Riley Ottesen (5th), Riley Richert, Marshall Kasowski (13th), Mark Washington with the win (13th), and Luis Paz continued his mastery in the US after his promotion from DSL earlier this month. This was his 6th game in Arizona. In 7 innings, he has allowed 1 run on 3 hits, 2 walks, and 10 strikeouts. He has a .115 BAA, and 0.71 WHIP.