I Am No Kool-Aid Drinker
I am an unabashed and unapologetic supporter of FAZ. They have built a tremendous team and know how to utilize a full 40 man roster to their advantage because they have the depth to do so. I also believe that a winning TEAM is greater than the sum of the individual players. Clayton Kershaw is special. There is no question of that. But he is one of 40, and I
I am an unabashed and unapologetic supporter of FAZ. They have built a tremendous team and know how to utilize a full 40 man roster to their advantage because they have the depth to do so. I also believe that a winning TEAM is greater than the sum of the individual players. Clayton Kershaw is special. There is no question of that. But he is one of 40, and I believe that the other 39 players together can help to offset the loss of the one. No single pitcher can replace Clayton Kershaw. But that does not mean they cannot win without him, it is just going to be a lot more difficult. I think the moment you concede that your hopes are unrealistic of winning a championship without one player, then you will be correct 100% of the time, and you can begin your “I told you so’s”.
In 1968, Earl Morrall replaced a quarterback legend, the Baltimore Colts’ Johnny Unitas, due to an injury in the last pre-season game. Morrall guided the Colts to a 13-1 record, 2 playoff victories before losing Super Bowl III to Joe Namath and the Jets. Two years later, Morrall replaced Unitas for Super Bowl V, and this time brought a world title to the Colts. Now nobody is saying or implying that Earl Morrall is a better quarterback than Johnny Unitas, but the Colts were a great team and were able to overcome a disaster like losing Johnny U. Conversely, Dan Marino is arguably the greatest quarterback ever to play in the NFL to never win a Super Bowl. In fact, as great as he was, he appeared in only one Super Bowl.
We can all come up with anecdotes to support our individual beliefs or biases. I am one that believes that the team is greater than the individual. Others can and do see it different. That does not make one camp right, and the other one wrong. It is just a different way of looking at how to build a champion.
However, just because I believe in the team over the sum of the individual players does not mean that I do not believe that there cannot be improvements. I AM NOT A KOOL-AID DRINKER. I believe that FAZ has built the best team for a 162 game season. No team has the depth that the Dodgers have. I am not sure that any team is close in that regard. But the team is built for a long 162 game season. Are they built to win in a short series? That is a fair and legitimate question. The playoffs are a best of 5, and 2 best of 7 game short series where individuals can in fact rise to the occasion. So while I believe the Dodgers can win with Kershaw/Wood/Hill and Maeda/McCarthy/Ryu, I would prefer a solid top of the rotation RHSP in that mix. The Dodgers would be better with Gray or Darvish. The Dodgers would be better with Justin Wilson as the 8th inning setup. The Dodgers and their 11.5 game lead can afford to trade for Zach Britton and monitor his innings until the playoffs. Andrew Miller is not available but the Dodgers would be stronger with Morrow/Fields/Baez/Britton or Wilson as the bridge to get to Jansen. Ryu and Maeda or McCarthy (assuming one is #4 SP) can move to the pen with Stewart and Dayton/Avilan/Stripling to fill in if needed. The last two WS champions had superior bullpens. It was also MadBum coming in from the bullpen in Game 7 that won 2014 WS.
But like everything we want, there is a cost associated with the acquisition. I want a Porsche 911 Carrera. But it would put a big hurt in my retirement if I followed my desires and bought the Porsche. The Dodgers are fortunate to have the FO that values a farm system and can trade some of the coveted players from a surplus. The Dodgers have a wealth of RHSP in their system. They all cannot play for the ML team. Brock Stewart, Walker Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Mitchell White, Trevor Oaks, Jordan Sheffield, Dennis Santana, Josh Sborz, Imani Abdullah, Scott Barlow, Wilmer Font, Andrew Sopko, Dustin May, AJ Alexy, and Devin Smeltzer. How long before Morgan Cooper and James Marinan join that group, or Caleb Ferguson (LHP) and Melvin Jimenez. Or a multitude of DSL and AZL pitchers. Of that group, only Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez rate Ace potential (right now). Stewart and White seem to be solid mid-rotation candidates. May and Santana could get to mid-rotation as well. Not including current year draft choices or Jimenez, the others have a ceiling of back end rotation and bullpen. Some could be high leverage relievers (Sheffield/Sborz). More than half of these pitchers have greater ceilings and floors than Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas, and Grant Holmes (yes, IMO with no scouting background).
Willie Calhoun and Edwin Rios are solid power hitters, a trait the Dodgers covet. But where do they play? The DH may in fact come to the NL, but when? Calhoun is ready now. Rios probably sometime next year. DJ Peters is not far behind, but he can play all three OF positions. Ibandel Isabel is probably in the Calhoun/Rios category. I am sure the Dodgers will find a quality DH if and when the DH comes to the NL. Yusniel Diaz and Starling Heredia are two high ceiling potential OF. They are just not at the Alex Verdugo level…yet. And Jeren Kendall may be the best of the bunch offensively and defensively. When is he penciled in? What happens with Henry Ramos? Could he be another find like Andrew Toles? What about Kyle Garlick/Luke Raley/Tyler Adkison/Zach Reks/Cody Thomas/Carlos Rincon/Jacob Scavuzzo. Many of these are potential Scott Schebler type power hitters. It is just knowing which ones are real and which ones may not be. That is where good scouting comes in play.
The Dodgers have three solid catching prospects in Will Smith, Keibert Ruiz, and Kyle Farmer. With Grandal and Barnes on the roster do they really need all of Smith/Ruiz/Farmer? There are also two to three solid potential prospects in the lower rookie leagues that may impress in the next couple of years (not to forget 2017 3rd round draft pick Connor Wong).
I am not sure that the Dodgers have any sure fire middle infield can’t miss prospects. But they have several that can and will make the ML at least as a utility player. Drew Maggi/Jose Miguel Fernandez/Tim Locastro/Drew Jackson/Omar Estevez/Brandon Davis/Ronnie Brito/Gavin Lux/Errol Robinson/Erick Mejia/Oneil Cruz/Moises Perez/Jacob Amaya all have potential. Corner infielders like Cristian Santana/Matt Beaty/Nick Yarnall/Michael Ahmed also have potential (especially Santana).
The Dodgers may have four top 100 players, but they probably lead MLB in the 101-200 prospect range, and the last time I checked, ML rosters are full of those guys with that label. The Dodgers are full of Cotton/Montas/Holmes caliber pitchers. FAZ is just better at determining who is better, and packaging others to get a needed piece. Could they gamble with Verdugo believing in what they have in Kendall? To me, the only untouchable is Buehler, followed by Alvarez and Verdugo, and then White. I am not including Stewart in the discussion because he is already on the 25 man, and they can ill afford to trade him this year.
I too am tired of the “Wait Until Next Year” mantra. 29 years is long enough. This team seems special, and with a little help, they can become prohibitive favorites. It may sting, but it will not hemorrhage the farm system. Some of our favorites may end up with the A’s or Tigers or Rangers or Phillies or Mets or Pirates, and you can bet I will follow them. But if FAZ believes that Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish or Justin Wilson or Pat Neshek or Addison Reed or Tony Watson or even Justin Verlander can help the team without sacrificing the luxury tax or farm system then I am in. I do not see them messing with the position players, but top of the rotation starting pitching and high leverage relief pitching can cement an already solid team.
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Discussion (103)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Watford, You Craic till you need a seat… Tip – #3 in the 3rd. has won me tens of dollars at Del Mar racetrack near San Diego. You’d love the venue… Logo: Where the turf meets the surf…
Willie – Can’t a guy hope!?!
I really don’t think we’ll see both Puig & Joc roaming the confines of Chavez in 2018…
From cbs sports
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Yankees have already made one big trade, getting David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox to bolster the bullpen, as well as Todd Frazier to add another bat. I don’t think they’re done, either. New York is currently sitting in the top AL wild-card spot and I don’t think you make a trade like that trade with the White Sox only to close up shop and call it a deadline. Not when you just lost Michael Pineda to Tommy John surgery and have a rotation opening.
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Now, that said, the Yankees are very protective of their top prospects, and I don’t see them trading any of them at the deadline. That takes them out of the running for Gray and Darvish. The Yankees still have enough prospect depth to add a rental fifth starter, however, plus pick up a new first baseman. Right now, the Yankees are the only contender that needs a first baseman or designated hitter. They’re in position to let the market for Lucas Duda or Yonder Alonso come to them,
As for pitching help, the Yankees would love a young controllable starter, though that’s not going to happen without trading top prospects. That makes a rental more likely. With Jaime Garcia and Trevor Cahill being dealt yesterday, the top remaining rentals are Cardinals righty Lance Lynn and Padres righty Jhoulys Chacin. Don’t be surprised if the Yankees do something creative like add another reliever, then move Adam Warren or Chad Green back into the rotation. Point is, the Yankees are not done.
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Bums: Interesting.
Watford my man – Not Toles, were looking and at 2018 starting OF with speed at the top of the order!!!
Calhoun – Bluto summed it all…
Good God, isn’t there a defensive specialist somewhere out there to work on him???
What I loved about last nights game-no home runs. They did it the old fashion way.
Willie Calhoun. Ho-hum…..3/5 with his 23rd HR s
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Hard to believe his offense is not good enough to help offset any defensive deficiencies he might have.
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Calhoun has half as many home runs as strikeouts in AAA at age 22 (23:46). Joey Votto (26:52) is the only major leaguer with more than 3 HR that has done that in 2017. Strangely, Mike Moustakas is the closest to matching the feat (29:62)
Verdugo homers off the Right Fielder’s head. The ball bounced at least 25 feet.
He’s been a real bonus as has Cody.
Who woulda thought that losing AGon would be a positive thing?
Still don’t understand why Faz didn’t select Taylor after his wonderful ST?
70 wins by the end of July. Unreal.
Taylor has been the Dodgers MVP. Does anybody agree with me?
Bonehead play by Puig
It has been almost 20 minutes the delay
Anyone tell me what the on field delay is???
Giants trade Nunez TO Red Sox.
So, they don’t listen to me and are going to start Brock Stewart?
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OK. I warned them!
Interesting read with respect to what Oakland wants for Sonny Gray, and the speculation. They have indicated that they want a CF in return. Nothing said about when the CF ETA is. The biggest speculation has the Yankees using Estevan Florial (NYY #5) as the centerpiece. However he is a 19 year old in low A and he is at least two – three years away. MLB.Pipeline has him at a 2020 ETA. With the number of young OF on the 25 man, and high OF prospects they have in their farm, this seems very plausible.
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The speculation for the Brewers were either Lewis Brinson or Brett Phillips as the CF prospect in the package. The Brewers seem to be backing away at Gray and seem very reluctant to trade Lewis Brinson to anyone. They could easily afford to lose Brett Phillips, but I do not believe that will be a sufficient CF to pry Gray from Oakland.
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The speculation on the Braves is Ronald Acuna. Acuna is a five tool OF who is 19 and playing well at AAA. Acuna is the Braves Walker Buehler. They have a lot of young pitching talent (6 in top 100) with Newcomb already at ML, and three others with 2018 ETA. One has a 2019 ETA (Kyle Wright) who may end up the best of the bunch, and one at 2020. I do not see the Braves as a realistic trading partner right now. If Acuna is as good as they think, Ender Inciarte could very well be a Winter Trade option that will bring a good sized haul back. Inciarte has a great team friendly contract and is controlled through 2021 with a team friendly option of $9M and a $1.025M buyout for 2022. He will be 31 in 2022. It could be Inciarte who the A’s look at, and that is more viable to me than Acuna.
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The speculation on the Astros was Daz Cameron. He is a legit CF prospect with a 2019 ETA. If I were the A’s I would hold out for Derek Fisher or Kyle Tucker. They are not true CF, but they are very gifted OF’s with plus bats. Tucker is a Verdugo type hitter with power. He was considered the best high school hitting prospect in the 2015 draft. Fisher has been called up to Houston, and has 2 HR’s in 21 PA. He can play CF, but he is looking to be an outstanding LF. With McHugh back, I just do not see the Astros trading either Fisher or Tucker, which is why the speculation on the true CF, Daz Cameron.
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If the A’s are not concerned with a 2018 ETA, then the Dodgers could dangle 20 year old Yusniel Diaz as their CF in the package.
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If I were the A’s I would absolutely want Acuna from the Braves, but would settle on Inciarte and 2-3 of those young pitchers. Or Lewis Brinson from the Brewers, another 5 tool “can’t miss CF (not happening with Brinson).
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The Yankees seem to be the primary block with Estevan Florial or Dustin Fowler as the CF in their package. I may be very biased (okay I am very biased), but I think Yusniel Diaz has a higher ceiling and floor than either of those prospects. Jeren Kendall makes Diaz a luxury (although certainly worth keeping in my estimation). So if ETA is not as important as being a true CF, then it may not be Verdugo that they are looking at, but rather Diaz.
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It is fun (at least for me) to try and think as a GM, and having no idea what the heck they are really thinking. Alas, this will all end in 6 days, and then it is back to just a plain old boring pennant race.
I find this report interesting about the changes most sounded by each team …
Open on www.sportingnews.comhttp://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/list/mlb-trade-rumors-worst-offseason-yankees-red-sox-royals-orioles-white-sox/1jr961d0ge8lf1o1rxboif0x7sOpen on www.sportingnews.comhttp://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/list/mlb-trade-rumors-worst-in-season-deadline-cubs-cardinals-lou-brock-dodgers-mets-giants/18yn3ope05w4z1pvu9lcf3iekgBrock Stewart TO start tomorrow versus twins.
What did everyone think about Paredes last night?
Cody said that he had a lot of trouble hitting against Paredes last year, in AA.
You always have to love a story like Paredes, because he was pitching in his first Major League game at thirty.
Nothing said about Taylor’s playing the left field corner and throw to Seager for the play at the plate. He fielded it like an infielder. Great heads up play by him. And Seager. I say stand pat on trades. We have capable guys in the pen. Starters depend on Kershaw. Wood and Hill #1&2 in the playoffs might be enough with solid bullpen work. I look for Morrow to be the 2 inning guy. He has a chip on his shoulder and has something to prove to the various teams that cut him. He can go every day and brings it at 100mph. He’s the man we are looking for. He can become an Andrew Miller. I hope it’s with our team.
AC – enjoyed the very well reasoned thread.
A couple of years ago I would have definitely been in the ” trade the prospects” camp.
However. After, Puig, Pederson, Seagar, Urias and now Belinger, we have been spoilt with the success of our Minor League System. We have seen that FAZ has a decent eye for knowing which players to stick or twist on, and it makes me feel uneasy to give them up.
In this case it’s Ferris & Verdugo that I want to keep.
Therefore, if any kind of deal can be reached with Detroit for Verlander & Wilson, where we don’t have to give up
up on those two, then I think I’m in.
I know he’s expensive, but Verlander is a workhorse, and we could still use him next year, as well as his obvious experience of post season play this year.
We get another year of Wilson and unless something really weird happens in the next 12 months, we hopefully will be in this position again next year, with the addition of Verlander in the rotation and Verdugo in LF, make us even stronger!
Kershaw
Wood
Verlander
Hill
Ferris B
Urias/Ryu/McCarthy/Maeda
That is some rotation next year.
A Wilson/Verlander trade gives us two stabs at it (17/18).
So, what gets it done?
Alvarez, Calhoun plus other prospects.
Or maybe a ML ready performer like Puig plus the above?
I do think we need Wilson & Verlander would be insurance against CK not making it back this season.
Future CF Jeren Kendall promoted to Single A today
LOL! So that would be a… no? Maybe he had a change of heart?
I noticed that Erisbel Arruebarrena played last night for AZL Dodgers. Does anyone know anything about this?
The Dodgers have most of the talent and the mojo that they need to win this year. This team seems to be able to win – in that sense, I agree with AC. There is an intangible there that you either have or don’t. This bunch has come from behind to win over 25 times and has, amazingly won EVERY GAME in which it had a lead at least at one point during the game.
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Given all of this, I would argue that they should pull out the stops and take a crack at the brass ring.
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While I wanted JD Martinez, I think that the Braintrust figured that the roster as currently constituted was enough to win. The obvious weakness (LHRP that we have been talking about for weeks now) is something that will be addressed. The real question now is whether the team needs a starter, either with or without Kershaw.
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Wood has been spectacular this year – the new arm slot has resulted in a more repeatable delivery, better control, more MPH on the fastball and a better changeup. While he has never performed this well this long before, the changes that he has made are not temporary and should result in superior performance all year, although I expect that the league will adjust to him to at least some extent.
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Hill has gotten it together lately. He is like the girl with curl – when he is good he is very good but when he is bad…
The big issues with Hill, as with McCarthy, are health and reliability. Assuming that Kershaw is back and that Wood is still very good, the big risk may be that Hill and/or McCarthy aren’t healthy or pitching well when the post-season starts.
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So – what will it cost for 2 months of Yu Darvish? Or for 2 years of Sonny Gray? I suspect that because the Dodgers have had a few great prospects for each of the last several years (Pederson, Seager, Urias, Bellinger and now Buehler, Verdugo and Alvarez) teams have demanded at least one of them or refused to trade. If the Rangers or A’s take that approach with the Dodgers, then they will have trouble making the kind of trade that may be needed to put the team over the top. It’s going to be tough – does the Braintrust go for it this year?
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Please – just say “no” to Justin Verlander. He’s 34, has pitched to a 4.50+ ERA this year, and will cost $28MM/year for each of the next 2 seasons.
I would love Verlander and Wilson. I know it will be expensive. Money wise. But, we are close. I can taste a. World Series.
Al
Was thinking the same thing – killing two birds with one stone.
I can see this one happening.