Chris Sale is a classic example of the “Best Trades You Make Are the Ones You Don’t!” Now, don’t get me wrong – It’s possible that Chris Sale may have a fine season for the Braves, but if I were forced to bet on that, I would bet that he would not! Chris will soon be 35 and has injured practically every body part a human has since 2017.
In case you forget, in his mid-to-late 20s, Sale was a Workhorse Ace for the White Sox. Look at these numbers:
- 2012 – 18-8 3.05 ERA – 192 IP
- 2013 – 11-14 3.07 ERA – 214 IP
- 2014 – 12-4 2.17 ERA – 174 IP
- 2015 – 13-11 3.41 ERA – 208 IP
- 2016 – 17-10 3.34 ERA – 226 IP
It became apparent that after the 2016 season, the White Sox were going to trade him because they knew they could not resign him after 2017. Predictably, Dodger fans thought it incumbent upon Andrew Friedman to trade the farm for him. One trade scenario was that the Dodgers should trade Bellinger, Calhoun, Verdugo, and Lux for him. I was castigated for being a naysayer because I said he was an “injury waiting to happen.”
So, they traded him to the Boston Red Sox for Victor Diaz , Luis Alexander Basabe, Michael Kopech, and Yoán Moncada. After he was acquired by the Red Sox to be their Ace, Sale helped the Red Sox to a World Series title in 2018 but has made just 56 starts in the last four years, going 17-18 with a 4.86 ERA. He had 400 strikeouts and 79 walks in 298 1/3 innings. He was 6-5 with a 4.30 ERA in 20 starts last season.
Chris Sale had Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020, and returned to a big league mound on Aug. 14, 2021. He missed all but five innings in 2022 and did pitch 102 innings in 2023. This is a classic case of where you do not EVER trust the statistics. Chris Sale had filthy stuff. He threw hard and had a wicked slider to wipe out hitters. At 29, he was through being a super pitcher.
The year after he was traded was his best. In 32 starts in 2017, Sale finished with a 17–8 record, a 2.90 ERA, and an MLB-leading 308 strikeouts. He led the majors in strikeouts per 9 innings (12.93). The Red Sox clinched the AL East division with a 93–69 record.
In the first postseason appearance of his MLB career, Sale was the starting pitcher in Game 1 of the Division Series against the Houston Astros. He allowed nine hits and seven runs in five innings, taking the loss. He then pitched in relief in Game 4, allowing four hits and two runs in 4-2⁄3 innings – again taking the loss, as the Astros eliminated the Red Sox with a 5–4 win. Sale had a postseason ERA of 8.38 while striking out 12 and walking one in 9-2⁄3 innings pitched. In all fairness to him, the Trash Can Bangers likely struck again!
In 2018, he spent considerable time on the Injured List but was a part of the Red Sox World Series winning team that year. He was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA in 158 IP. On March 23, 2019, Sale signed a five-year, $145 million extension with the Red Sox. Sale earned $15 million in 2019 via a club option in his prior contract, with the extension covering 2020 through 2024, plus a vesting option for 2025.
The Braves are in a “Win Now” mode and are trying to catch lightning in a bottle, so they acquired Sale for Vaughn Grisson, a soon-to-be-23-year-old with six more seasons of control. He profiles as a second baseman… much like Red Sox Legend Dustin Pedroia. The Red Sox also paid $17 MM of Sale’s remaining contract. My son-in-law, who is a rabid Red Sox fan (is there any other type?), says that Sale is the worst trade the Red Sox ever made (he doesn’t remember Babe Ruth). I said, “Yeah, he he helped you win a World Series. Wasn’t that worth it?” He said an emphatic “NO!”
Do you think Clayton Kershaw was bad in the Playoffs? Sale ends his Red Sox Career with a 6.35 ERA. The Dodgers dodged a bullet by not trading for Sale. By the way, my son-in-law says that he is very envious of Dodger fans: “The Red Sox win a World Series every now and again, but they suck the rest of the time. I’d rather be like the Dodgers.”
Chris Sale will be 35 in March. Charlie Morton is 40. Max Fried will be 30 and has been injured and hot and cold. Spencer Strider is their Ace, with a 3.86 ERA last season. Bryce Elder had a 3.81 ERA last season (20.25 in the playoffs), and Reynaldo Lopez and AJ Smith-Shawver round out the rotation. I’ll still take the Dodgers’ arms any day!
P.S. I am hearing rumblings that Clayton will be back with the Dodgers by August or sooner.
Discussion (14)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Snow forecast for today here in Canon, time for my insulated jeans.
Saw a story this morning that the Yankees are ready to extend Soto. The price? 500 million.
Eric mentions that Vargas could “tear it up in spring training and force himself onto the roster.”
That’s precisely what Outman did.
We don’t know who will be on the roster in spring training, but I hope it’s an open competition in LF. Maybe Vargas prevails–or maybe it’s Taylor or Busch or Pages or a player to be named later.
Right now, it’s the only question mark on the roster.
I think the Chris Sale trade is a win for both teams but especially the Braves. Sale is injury prone but when healthy he is a dominant pitcher. His career era is 3.10 and in his last 15 starts in 2023 he had a 3.15 ERA. The Braves are only paying $500,000 for Sale this year with another 10 million deferred until 2039. The Red Sox pickup the other $17 million this year. Plus the Braves have a $20 million team option for next year. And while Grissom is a good young prospect, the Braves have no place to play him. He is a lot like Busch or Vargas for the Dodgers without a starting position.
Sale has had a much better career than Glasnow and is only 4 years older. The Braves are taking a calculated risk on Sale for $10 million plus one prospect. The Dodgers gave up two prospects and have guaranteed $137 million for Glasnow.
While Glasnow has great potential and a greater likelihood of success this year, he does not have anywhere near the track record of Sale. And the Braves risk in Sale is pretty limited.
I don’t understand the too many LHB thing. Don’t you want as many LHB when there is a right-handed starting pitcher? I don’t know the exact number but I’ll guess that 85% of starting pitchers are right handed. Therefore a LHB is more valuable than a RHB.
In my opinion, this is the outfield as it stands right now:
Taylor everyday in LF. He has pretty much equal career splits.
Outman everyday in CF. Give him a long runway to improve against LHP.
Heyward/Margot platoon in RF.
The 13 man position player roster as of right now stands at 12. I think Busch could be number 13 platooning with Taylor in LF. Or AF could get an everyday outfielder. Notice I didn’t say LF? It’s because the outfield is so versatile.
I don’t see any way Vargas could make the team. If anything Vargas would be called up if/when an injury happens. Taylor could be moved around anywhere except catcher to fill in for the injured player. That would allow for Vargas to be called up to platoon with Busch in LF.
The simple thing is to get an everyday outfielder and this discussion would be over.
I’m more confidant in Dodgers homegrown pitchers than homegrown position players.
Just my 2 cents.
Justin Bruhl signs a minor league deal with the Reds.
A few things:
1. The Ohtani Effect?
https://seatgeek.com/los-angeles-dodgers-tickets/3-29-2024-los-angeles-california-dodger-stadium/mlb/6102064
2. On the International Front, Callis mentioned Dodgers SS Joendry Vargas as one of 6 International Debuts from 2023.
3. Also on the International Front is this look at Eduardo Quintero the DSL MVP and Catcher turned CFer.
https://dodgersyat.com/2023/08/23/eduardo-quintero-dominican-summer-league-mvp/
Busch will not be in LF (unless they trade Lux) . The Dodgers have too many LH bats as it is.
Dodgers just traded Bryan Hudson to the Brewers for LHP Justin Chambers and a PYBNL. They also received some cash. Chambers is 18 years old. He was selected in the 20th round of the 23 draft. He has not pitched professionally. He had TJ surgery while in high school. He was considered the top pitcher in Arizona.
I was just listening to one of the Braves announcers, Mark Bowman, and he was talking about Von Grisson and how all off-season last year, Alex Anthropolus was touting that Grissom was the SS in 2023. Many baseball people did not think he could play SS, and sure enough, he couldn’t and didn’t. He’s really a 2B, but the Braves have Albies.
I still say that Gavin Lux is not a SS… and I am not the only one who thinks that. Mookie Betts would like to play 2B, BUT I BETTS HE WOULD LOVE SS! Eric and I are the only ones who have floated that, but moving Mookie to SS makes Rojas expendable. I would love Lux at 2B.
Lineup:
1. Betts SS
2. Ohtani DH
3. Freeman 1B
4. Smith C (I think Will is ready for a “breakout” year
5. Muncy 3B
6. Vargas LF (RH hitter – he’s healthy – put him there and let him play)
7. Lux 2B (18 HR/.825 OPS – Don’t worry about knee)
8. Outman/Margot CF (my opinion)
9. Heyward/Hernandez (re-sign Kike)
Bench: Barnes, Taylor
Busch is traded for prospects (good ones)
Rojas traded for a prospect!
Passan reports that Dodgers still in on Hernandez. That would probably close the door on Vargas and Busch for 24. That would be disappointing for me.
Very cool seeing Sandy Amoros commenting. I’m friends with Denny McLain and it’s interesting hearing the view from a real ballplayer. BTW, Denny is a pretty big Dodger fan. One name that keeps getting forgotten is Kyle Hurts. 152 K’s in 90 innings anywhere is impressive. I think Kyle is destined for an MLB rotation somewhere. I’m still hoping that the brass looks into getting a steady left fielder. If Vargas or Busch steps up that’s great. I love homegrown ball clubs. Trouble is having enough roster space for both of them.
If the Braves had acquired Chris Sale 10 years ago, that would have been a big deal. But not so much now. Sale is simply not what he used to be, that’s obvious. The Braves are still a very good team. Are they better than the Dodgers? I don’t think so. Are they better than the Phillies? That’s up for debate.
It will be good to get Clayton Kershaw back. Hopefully that happens. Kershaw may be primed, after the surgery, being pain free, to have an impresssive second half. I know in these days of very few players finishing entire careers with their original team, but I still thinks it’s incredibly cool. Kershaw just wouldn’t look right in anything other color than Dodger Blue.
Mark
I am a tad older than you so my best 10 Dodger years were 1955 to 1964. My favorite players were the Duke and Sandy. Nice decade 3 world series victories with 2 against the hated Yanks. I hope you are right about the Braves and their pitching falters I believe that Kershaw coming back healthy is huge. Is their badblood between Kershaw and Ohtani hop not. Go Bums