Let’s talk about BABIP, which is just another statistic. It is not meant to be an “end-all, be-all” analytic. It does, however, give a person a degree of insight into a players’ soul (if you will). Here’s what the MLB Glossary says about BABIP:
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
Definition
BABIP measures a player’s batting average exclusively on balls hit into the field of play, removing outcomes not affected by the opposing defense (namely home runs and strikeouts).
For example, a hitter who goes 2-for-5 with a home run and a strikeout would have a .333 BABIP. He’s 1-for-3 on the balls he put in play.
The formula
(H – HR)/(AB – K – HR + SF)
Why it’s useful
BABIP can be used to provide some context when evaluating both pitchers and hitters. The league average BABIP is typically around .300. Pitchers who have allowed a high percentage of hits on balls in play will typically regress to the mean, and vice versa. In other words, over time, they’ll see fewer (or more) balls in play fall for hits, and therefore experience better (or worse) results in terms of run prevention. The same applies for batters who have seen a high or low percentage of their balls in play drop in for hits.
That said, skill can play a role in BABIP, as some pitchers are adept at generating weak contact, while some hitters excel at producing hard-hit balls. For example, Clayton Kershaw finished the 2019 season with a lifetime .270 BABIP allowed, while Mike Trout ended the campaign with a career .348 BABIP.
Players do not have the same BABIP every year. So let us look at the Dodgers’ BABIP last year vs. their career:
While not always true, certain players are due for progression/regression because of a low/high BABIP last season. Fangraphs says this:
“Defense, luck, and talent all feed into the final BABIP number which is useful in different ways for batters and pitchers. For batters, BABIP can be used as an indication about the batter’s overall quality of contact if you have a large enough sample of balls in play. Over three seasons, if a batter has a .345 BABIP, it is probably safe to say that batter is above average in this aspect of the game and is probably making better contact on average than most.
–Fangraphs
However, changes in BABIP are to be met with caution. If a batter has consistently produced a .310 BABIP and all of a sudden starts a season with a .370 BABIP, you can likely identify this as an instance in which the batter has been lucky unless there has been a significant change in their style of play.
For hitters, we use BABIP as a sanity test of sorts that tells us if their overall batting line is sustainable or not. Virtually no hitter is capable of producing a BABIP of .380 or higher on a regular basis and anything in the .230 range is also very atypical for a major league hitter. In other words, BABIP allows us to see if a hitter seems to be getting a boost from poor defense or good luck or getting docked for facing good defenses and having bad luck.”
Of course, the smaller the sampling, the more likely the results are to be skewed. So, who do you think is subject to progression or regression in 2024?
A Little Comedy
Here is a text from my (then 15-year-old) son, who is not 24:
Discussion (14)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Woo Suk(<-Suck) Go, nearing deal with Padres(<-Suck). lol
why? maybe alanna, but he’s awful!
That show on mlb network high heat get canceled anyone know?
I’ve never been a Taylor fan and as such noticed how often he got base hits on seeing eye ground balls and bloopers. He has always been a lucky babip hitter.
Some players have good averages with hard hit rates and barrels. They deserve a good babip while soft hitters don’t.
I presume you are talking about this:
https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-insider-predicts-boston-will-trade-star-hurler-to-dodgers-scott7
A return visit from Kenley Jansen? That should light up the board for the next couple of days!
Good morning, all. Hope you all had a great day yesterday. I was busy unpacking my stuff from my trip, reading all of my back mail and getting things I needed from the store, I did manage to watch some of the All-MLB team show on MLB.TV. Boring! Ronald Acuna’s red suit with the numbers 44 and 73, referring to his homers and stolen bases, was a little bit much. But Aaron’s widow was a nice touch at the MVP award giveaway. And I learned Aaron’s nickname in the Negro Leagues was Pork Chop. I expect the free agent market will heat up some as we close in on February. I look for the Dodgers to get at least one more starting pitcher. Syndergaard anyone?????
MLB.COM 2024 PRE-SEASON POWER RANKINGS:
1. Braves
2. Dodgers
3. Rangers
4. Orioles
5. Phillies
6. Astros
7. Rays
8. Yankees
9. D-backs
10. Blue Jays
11. Mariners
12. Mets
13. Cubs
14. Brewers
15. Reds
16. Padres
17. Twins
18. Cardinals
19. Red Sox
20. Tigers
21. Marlins
22. Giants
23. Guardians
24. Angels
25. Royals
26. Pirates
27. White Sox
28. Nationals
29. Rockies
30. A’s
If James Outman can cut his strikeouts by 15-20% and hit LHP with better power, he can hit 40 HR.
Ronald Acuna, Jr. struck out 126 Times in 2022, and his BA was .266 with a .764 OPS .
Then in 2023, in almost 200 more ABs, he struck out just 84 times, and his BA was .337 with a 1.012 OPS.
Acuna’s BABIP stayed about the same in 2022 and 2023, but he cut his strikeout percentage from 23.6 to 11.4%.
The thing is, with Acuna, his splits are not much different. He hits his dominant side pitcher as good or better than his weak side. The same is not true for Outman as he struggles with LHP. I have looked and LH Batters who struggle against LHP do not generally get better. His BA is respectable but he has no power. His OPS against LHP is .664.
Now, I hope that the Dodgers staff can work with him to improve that because he doesn’t have to be platooned; it will stabilize the OF.
Baseball Reference projects him at 19 HR, .258 BA and .800 OPS.
Fangraphs (Steamer) projects him at 19 HR and a .30 BA and a 2.2 WAR
Of course, I generally do not put much stock in these projections. That’s why they play the games.
BABIP is a useful stat, but some of my problems with it stem from some of the assumptions sabre geeks attribute to it.
For example, it is one of constants that is used in the calculation of FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s a stat that attempts to strip away the influence of the defense behind a pitcher (i.e. – luck) and use only the supposed actions that a pitcher has direct control over: strikeouts, HBP and home runs.
To create that FIP calculation, BABIP is used as a constant. In this case, a standard BABIP of .300 is used as an anchor. It’s assumed that anything under .300 and the pitcher is the beneficiary of luck, and anything above .300 is bad luck.
FIP is used to determine WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, at least in the Fangraphs model. WAR is considered the overall – one stat to rule them all – measure of a player’s value.
My issue with all of this is that it’s assumed that a .300 BABIP is a reliable constant and that a pitcher really has no real ability to control soft contact, which would result in a lower than .300 BABIP. I don’t think that’s true. I think some pitchers absolutely have control over inducing soft contact.
One example: Clayton Kershaw is probably a first ballot HOFer. He has a career ERA of 2.48, which is fantastic. However, his FIP is 2.82. His xFIP is 3.00! It’s the difference between being in the HOF and not being in the HOF – all based on these assumptions about BABIP and the ability of a pitcher to influence whether a ball is a hard hit line drive or a softly hit out.
The whole point is to extract those factors that are considered luck, which really boils down to a sample size problem. But these are Kershaw’s career stats. He has consistently, throughout his career, has had a BABIP well below the assumed constant of .300. It’s not luck. It’s his historical norm.
All of these stats like BABIP and FIP are still useful, but they need to be put in context.
Many of us are wondering if Outman is going to come back down to Earth this year in a bad way. “His BAPIP last year was .343! That’s totally unsustainable! He’s a 4th outfielder! I told you!”
Good news! Outman’s BABIP in his last year in AAA was also .343. In fact, he’s had a pretty extraordinarily high BABIP all throughout his minor league career, so there is a precedent for him to continue hitting like he has at the MLB level.
If Outman can cut down on his K’s, he could be in for a big year.
BABIP is an interesting number. For some players it fluctuates a great deal from year to year. It is positively influenced by running speed and hard contact. That’s why guys like Taylor and Outman who strike out a lot and have low BA as a result have high BAPIP.
Of the numbers that Mark posted, maybe the most interesting is Max Muncy. He strikes out a lot but still has a relatively low BAPIP. He’s an average baserunner, but I expected that he made hard contact more frequently than the numbers demonstrate. As a left pull-hitter, maybe his career numbers were influenced by the shift before it was banned.
You can’t defense a hitter like Freddie Freeman – he sprays it everywhere. So his BAPIP is higher.
I thought it was kind of cool that Yamamoto said he would have probably signed with the Dodgers even if Ohtani had gone somewhere else.
https://sports.yahoo.com/yoshinobu-yamamoto-excited-to-play-with-shohei-ohtani-but-he-wasnt-the-only-reason-he-signed-with-the-dodgers-011949108.html
Wander Franco was arrested in the DR.