You asked for it, so you got it! Yesterday, the subject of Minor League Splits was brought up, and the fact of the matter is that they are hard to find and sometimes incomplete. You can find them at www.Baseball-Reference.com under the player. The problem is that the stats are all lumped together if the player (like Miguel Vargas) played in the Majors and Minors (like in 2023). So, if you look at Vargas in 2023, for some reason, his injuries prevented him from hitting lefties as well as he had in the past.
Let’s look at Miguel Vargas’ splits by year:
2023 (Age 23) Majors & Minors Combined
VS. RHP – 410 PA .254 BA .373 OB% .395 SLG .768 OPS 7 HR
VS. LHP – 179 PA .209 BA .313 OB% .477 SLG .790 OPS 10 HR
2022 (Age 22)
VS. RHP – 432 PA .283 BA .377 OB% .465 SLG .842 OPS 13 HR
VS. LHP – 138 PA .323 BA .428 OB% .532 SLG .960 OPS 5 HR
2021 (Age 21)
VS. RHP – 410 PA .310 BA .373 OB% .541 SLG .914 OPS 21 HR
Vs. LHP – 131 PA .345 BA .402 OB% .479 SLG .881 OPPS 2 HR
2019 (Age 19)
VS. RHP – 437 PA .301 BA .381 OB% .430 SLG .811 OPS 6 HR
VS. LHP – 122 PA .330 BA .377 OB% .473 SLG .850 OPPS 1 HR
2018 (Age 18)
VS. RHP – 164 PA .296 BA .374 OB% .423 SLG .797 OPS 2 HR
VS. LHP – 65 PA .414 BA .477 OPS .569 SLG 1.046 OPS 0 HR
He started out as a skinny 18-year-old and developed into a man. So, for his Minor League Career, Miguel Vargas Averages:
470 Games 2135 PA .310 BA .393 OB% .487 SLG .879 OPS
Now, let’s look at James Outman, who stated at a much older age:
2022 (Age 25)
VS. RHP – 415 PA .324 BA .425 OB% .665 SLG 1.090 OPS 27 HR
VS. LHP – 160 PA .236 BA .325 OB% .414 SLG .739 OPS 5 HR
2021 (Age 24)
VS. RHP – 394 PA .261 BA .373 OB% .511 SLG .884 OPS 17 HR
VS. LHP – 97 PA .284 BA .402 OB% .407 SLG .810 OPS 1 HR
2019 (Age 22)VS. RHP – 252 PA .227 BA .328 OB% .414 SLG .741 OPS 15 HR
VS. LHP – 106 PA .223 BA .302 OB% .383 SLG .685 OPS 4 HR
2018 (Age 21)
VS. RHP – 173 PA .276 BA .358 OB% .493 SLG .852 OPS 7 HR
VS. LHP – 64 PA .232 BA .328 OB% .482 SLG .810 OPS 4 HR
James Outman’s Minor League Averages:
403 Games 1795 PA .263 BA .263 OB% .496 SLG .859 OPS
James Outman started as a 21-year-old in a league of 17 and 18-year-olds, while Miguel Vargas started as an 18-year-old in a league of 18 to 21-year-olds and was always a skinny kid. You can see how his power developed. James Outman has great power against RHP, but not so much against LHP.
Miguel Vargas was always the youngest player in his league, while James was one of the older ones. Varga’s splits are consistent, and his power has developed and will develop even more as he matures. He just turned 24. If you can’t see the talent from the stats, then God help you. Maybe you should have watched him play. No case can be made from the splits that Vargas should be platooned, while even Ray Charles can see that Outman struggles against LHP. He is Joc 2.0. That, Ladies and Gentlemen, is why Vargas needs a longer runway. The talent dictates it! If you think James Outman is ever going to hit LHP, you likely believe in these guys, too:
I will look at Busch’s splits at a later date. Hint: They are not as good as Vargas.
The Next Big Thing: Emil Morales, SS
The Dodgers are in line to sign one of the Top International Bonus players, Emil Morales, a SS out of DR, who is 17. The International Signing Bonus Period opens on January 15th, but generally, an agreement is already in place before it is official. BA has this to say about him:
<i>Morales consistently strings together quality at-bats. He has a mature offensive approach, recognizes pitches well and has performed well against live pitching. It’s a sound swing for his age with power that has trended up as he has added strength to his lower half and should spike more in the coming years. Morales is an offensive-oriented shortstop who is built more like a third baseman, with many scouts believing he will slide over to third base in the near future. He’s a below-average runner who is a steady defender on the balls he gets to at shortstop with a solid-average arm, though his actions and mobility likely fit best at third base. </i>
You can watch him here:
Discussion (16)
Disagree, not disagreeable
If AF truly… and I mean TRULY believes Lux is a SS, he should trade Rojas. He could do what he did with Bryan Hudson (I’ll discuss that tomorrow). He can do it in Spring Training as well.
Then, this is likely the lineup the Dodgers could start with at the beginning of the season:
1. Smith
2. Barnes or Feduccia
3. Freeman
4. Betts
5. Lux
6. Muncy
7. Busch
9. Vargas
10. Outman
11. Margot
12. Heyward
13. Taylor
That leaves Kiki out in the cold, but oh well!
By the trade deadline, it will be apparent what (if anything) needs to be done.
Busch can spell Muncy and Freeman (keep Freddie and Max fresh) and get some time in LF and PH. Maybe he DH’s early in the season until Shohei can hit.
Vargas gets to show what he’s got in LF and CT3 fills in at SS and platoons in RF with Heyward.
Slow down and let the game come to us. Let’s see whjatr we have at the Deadline. BTW, I want to clinch as late as possible.
Dynasty’s are built by using Home Grown Players with a mix of Free Agents and Trades. Have you actually watched how Andrew Friedman does it?
OK, Michael Busch Splits:
2023:
VS. RHP – 383 PA .308 BA .405 OB% .636 SLG 1.048 OPS 27 HR
VS. LHP – 167 PA .284 BA .383 OB% .411 SLG .795 OPS 2 HR
2022:
VS. RHP – 462 PA .280 BA .370 OB% .532 SLG .902 OPS 23 HR
VS. LHP – 179 PA .258 BA .352 OB% .477 SLG .829 OPS 9 HR
2021:
VS. RHP – 374 PA .288 BA .396 OB% .524 SLG .944 OPS 17 HR
VS. LHP – 121 PA .198 BA .355 OB% .354 SLG .710 OPS 3 HR
Minor League Stats:
1640 PA .283 BA .390 OB% .529 SLG .919 OPS
While his splits are not as extreme as Outman, like Outman his power plays way up against RHP and he a “borderline platoon player.”
Busch won’t play left every day. Vargas has a much better shot at that job simply because he hit’s RH. Unless Busch can show he can hit lefties consistently, and I doubt he gets the chance, he is not going to be playing left field.
if the dodgers sign hernandez ( not kiki) , michael busch is gone ! but where? it would have to be al deal for a starter wouldn’t you think? he doesn’t deserve the minors again so where? hopefully not to cleveland in a deal for shane bieber! busch , cartaya, and gavin stone for cease? why not says who?
“Prospects are suspects until proven otherwise.”
Mets signed Harrison Bader to a one-year deal. Braves and Sale redid his contract. Fan Nation says the Dodgers still interested in both Pham and Hernandez. Teoscar, not Kike.
Interesting article about Trevor Bauer trying to make a comeback.
https://sports.yahoo.com/former-dodgers-pitcher-trevor-bauer-185515949.html
Prospects are prospects until they are not. I can remember more than a few that were supposed to be the next great thing, and they all performed in the minors. It doesn’t mean anything until they actually perform at the big league level.
I am always reminded of a Sports Illustrated cover from 1968 for an article talking about the hottest rookies coming up. One guy was catcher “John” Bench. The young Dodger pitcher on the cover was Alan Foster. He was mediocre at best (he had been a 2nd round draft pick and was a can’t miss guy) and was traded away in a few years.
https://vault.si.com/vault/1968/03/11/some-hot-rookies-for-a-new-season
Will Vargas be good? Will Busch? No one knows – not Mark or anyone else. We hope he will be good. We think that the minor league stats suggest he will be good. But we don’t know.
We know that Outman has gotten off to a pretty good start and that he has good athletic ability and a lot of swing and miss in his game. Will he improve or regress? We don’t know that either, but at this point he may be a better risk than Vargas simply because he has performed pretty well at the MLB level and Vargas has not yet.
Trevor Bauer seems contrite:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/former-dodgers-pitcher-trevor-bauer-185515949.html
Considering Bauer still has an active civil case against him in Arizona, it remains a long shot that he signs with a MLB club. If he can successfully put that pending case behind him, I believe everyone is entitled to second chances. In particular when he is now taking responsibilities for his mistakes.
I’ve never been a fan of his antics, but I love the work ethic and dedication he has for his craft.
Good analysis by Mark.
I agree with him that Vargas has consistently hit, and his poor performance in 2023 could be mostly injury related.
I would like both Vargas and Busch to be given chances in spring training to earn a MLB starting role. They have proven themselves as great MILB hitters and deserve a chance to earn a MLB role.
Outman had a really good rookie year, and should be the primary CF this year. I agree that he hits RHP better than LHP and I would be ok playing Margot or Taylor against most LH starters. However, I don’t agree with Mark that Outman is a 4th or 5th OF. He had Fangraphs WAR of 4.4 last year with a 790 OPS and salary of only $750,000. For comparison, Harrison Bader just signed with the Mets for a $10.5 million salary even though his OPS was .622 last year and .650 in 2022. Outman was rated as the 4th best CF in the entire MLB in 2023 by Fangraphs WAR, and the 10th best overall OF in all of the MLB. He was a very good CF in 2023, and a very valuable asset for the team.
Interesting report on Emil Morales.
Impossible to know which teenagers will develop into stars, but I’m loving the updates on Jeondry Vargas, Josue DePaula and Kendall George.
Hoping that Cartaya and Rushing can get back on track.
Thanks for minor league stats re Vargas , but the split comparison I really want to see is between Vargas and Busch, as they are actually competing against each other for the LF job (and to back up 3B, 2B and 1B.)
We are all familiar (too familiar) with your Vargas v. Outman obsession, but Outman has already earned a full-time job in CF. The Dodgers didn’t platoon him in ’23 and there’s little reason to think this is likely in ’24. Heyward will be platooned in RF, and platoon in LF is certainly possible. But Outman was so good in CF in ’23–on offense and defense–that he finished 3rd in ROY voting and just he just earned a performance bonus under the collective bargaining agreement north of $500,000.
Outman has consistently shown an ability to improve, as the Dodger brass know. Can he improve against southpaws? Sure, why not? And even though he lacked power against lefties in ’23, he still got on base at a solid .350 clip, and stole 16 bases in 19 tries. So he was productive even when he wasn’t slugging. How many times did Mookie or Freddie knock him in?
But what about Busch?
His minor league stats were so good in ’23, with an OPS up in Ohtani territory, that I have to assume that he bit both righties and lefties hard.
In the unlikely event that both Vargas and Busch are still around come Opening Day, perhaps Busch should get the full-time runway in LF instead of Vargas. The assumption has been that Vargas should be favored because he bats righthanded–but that makes no sense if Busch is just as adept at hitting lefties.
AF may soon face the choice of dealing Vargas or Busch. (I wonder if their names came up when DeLuca was dealt. Perhaps the Rays wanted a proven outfielder to replace Margot.) If the Dodgers truly see Busch as an everyday player, perhaps he should get the LF runway, or perhaps share it with Chris Taylor.
Feinsand guesses (not reports:)
Imanaga signs with the Mets, Montgomery reunites with the Yankees and Snell signs with the Angels … or Giants.
Wouldn’t you think that Vargas is next in line for 3B in 25? Got to think he’s our LF at start of year and it’s his to lose. I really like Busch but there just seems to be no opportunity with Dodgers and he’s 26. I’ll be shocked if he isn’t packaged in a deal for another starter. And let’s sign Hader. Let’s be pigs! He’s a huge October difference maker.
Update above!
Great job Mark. I really want Miquel to be a stud major leaguer. Love having homegrown talent reach stardom in the big leagues. My only concern is if for whatever reason, he can’t handle the pressure of fans, big stadiums, big big cities, media attention and falters….it has happened many many times with can’t miss prospects…probably more times than we can imagine. Therefore, if we can get back proven talent to be our everyday LF in exchange for Vargas, I would be in favor. Hopefully, everything works out and we get another stud right handed bat in our lineup and turns out to be Miquel. Dumb question, but Yamamoto qualifies as a rookie and has the inside track for rookie of the year ?