Can You See What Isn't… Before it is?

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Texas is very much in the mix for Corey Seager. I do not like to hear that, but with Trea Turner the Dodgers will not be without an elite SS if Seags does bolt for Texas or NYY.

As of 10:08 this evening, MLBTR reporting the Mets are close to signing Max Scherzer for a deal that has a 40 mil AAV. Highest in MLB history. As much as I love Max, Dodgers can better use their resources elsewhere. NO PITCHER is worth that kind of scratch.

Angels signed Michael Lorenzen to a one year deal.

Maybe it’s time to bring back Rich Hill and Zack Greinke.

Heyman now saying Mets are leading the Scherzer derby. Dodgers still in it but pessimistic. Could be a 4 year deal.

Kris Bryant talk has been quiet. Are we making a stealth run?

Texas is looking to compete. They have signed Jon Gray to a four year deal, $56MM.

Miami extends, Sandy Alcantara, 5 years $56MM. Who needs the winter meetings.

The Trevor Bauer conundrum is the kind of thing that completely turns me away from following the game. I’m sure these things have always happened, but now with social media and easy access to public figures, they get exposed. Lurid stories about ball players going back decades were rarely reported, but then Bouton’s “Ball Four” opened the of worms and we see sides of players we never knew.

Some fans will say “who cares? It is their own personal business,” but most won’t. These days with the current political climate- abuse, violence, anything hinted of the sort, will not be ignored. It is the climate we are living in and Bauer is smack dab in. Remember when Bobby Cox was arrested for beating his wife? That occurred in May, 1995, the year his Braves won the World Series. Had that happened nowadays, he never would have achieved his Hall of Fame career. He would have been done.

Today, you don’t simply get away with the appearance of inappropriate behavior, and that is what is so bothersome about the whole Bauer story. He should have known better. He should have been smart enough to avoid the entire situation altogether. He had 120 million reasons to be cautious.

I don’t mean to demean the woman involved in the story, but enough has come out to indicate that she has been engaged in sexual liaisons with several other athletes. How could a guy be so freaking stupid and risk everything for what was essentially (my opinion) a ball player groupie?

Legally I don’t see how MLB can continue keeping him from playing the game. He already was banned from the sport for half a season. I suppose Manfred could impose a suspension for 2022, but it certainly will be met with a legal protest by Bauer. Does the Commissioner even want to go there with all the other distractions he has to deal with regarding the CBA?

There are the Dodgers, who can pay him his salary and refuse to play him. An option that they might just take. Nobody likes eating a $40+ million salary, but the man has apparently lost his teammates. He has lost the fan base. If he returns, the distraction will probably outweigh the benefits he brings.

Bauer’s reckless behavior was dirt stupid. His arrogance extends on and off the field. How in the world could he put so much at risk to satisfy his off the wall sexual fetishes. It makes me wonder if he has deeper issues that might need to be dealt with by a liscensed professional counselor or therapist. His selfishness probably cost the Dodgers the title. There are many that won’t forgive.

Gausman to Blue Jays – 5 years $110MM. I now expect the Giants to come hard for Max.

Marcus Semien to the Rangers. 7 years 175 milli9n.

Both LA NFL football teams getting their asses whipped today. Green Bay dominating the Rams and the Bronco’s beating the Chargers easily.

I would be saying good enough if Dodgers traded Bauer for Upton and then release Upton, like AC suggested.

That’s pretty good thinking AC considering you can’t see the wisdom of trading for Chapman or Buxton.

Rangers on a roll. Now they are signing Kole Calhoun.

The police dept of Jupiter, FL, when confronted with evidence, including images of bruised arms, declined to press charges against Sam Dyson. They didn’t think they had a strong case. He was subsequently suspended by the MLB for the entirety of the 2021 season. The Pasadena DA might decline to press charges because it’s a tricky case that doesn’t have a high likelihood of conviction. MLB can still suspend him.

The legal system that is responsible for adjudicating guilt or innocence and meting out punishment is separate from the domestic abuse conduct policy of MLB. The former may have an influence on the latter, but they are not linked. The MLB is perfectly within its rights to suspend a player they believe has violated their domestic abuse policy.

Will they? I think so. It depends, however, if Manfred thinks that Bauer will make a big legal and PR stink about his suspension and create a lot of negative publicity. Manfred is, above all, a PR managing commissioner. He wants ugly distractions from revenue and growth to go away. He wants Bauer to go away, and he might be successful because Bauer doesn’t seem like he’s particularly popular among his peers. He’s kind of a weirdo. Perhaps the PA is less likely to go to bat for him.

The other scenario, if Manfred thinks that Bauer will make a lot of legal noise by his suspension, is to quietly allow him to come back while trying to manage any PR fallout. That then puts the onus on the Dodgers, who will most likely try to trade him at a loss. I don’t think the Dodgers want him in the clubhouse any more.

…. on the other hand …. if he comes back that fills a big hole in a starting rotation that currently has big holes.

Avsail Garcia 4 years $53MM to Miami.

Marcus Semien reportedly signs a 7 year deal with Texas.

I would like for anyone to explain what Manfred could suspend Bauer for IF THE DA DOES NOT BRING CHARGES!

Think about it before responding! This is very problematic.

Sorry Bum.

I know this is not USC Talk, but it does get mentioned. It appears that USC has their new coach…Lincoln Riley. This is a homerun hire for my Trojans. I see a lot of Oklahoma Sooner commits changing their mind, and the transfer portal should be filled with players who may want to come west. A great day to be a Trojan. Now my Packers need to win. Sorry Rams fans.

A couple of retorts. First, I agree with you that if Bauer is not indicted, MLB does not have enough evidence in their investigation to suspend him unilaterally. Bauer (and for very good reason) is not cooperating with MLB so as not to say something that will come back to bite him in the *** if this ever does go to trial (criminal or civil). While I do have a problem with MLB not being precise in their investigation and coming to a conclusion, I am more concerned about the LA District Attorney’s office and not going forth with any indictment or refusing to indict. The police wrapped up their investigation and presented it to the DA on August 27. We are now more than three months after the case was turned over, and no word. Is that normal? I have no clue? Maybe Rick or Rob can shed some light. (or any other attorney).

Of course you are right that Bauer is not the first Jerk to play MLB. He is also not the first to play for LAD. But the others were moved out. Machado was a need but as soon as that need was no more, the same was true for Machado. There is no way AF would have re-signed Machado. Puig was not as big of a jerk, but he was a nuisance. He was dispatched as well. Trevor Bauer was an overreaction to what NYM and SDP was doing and they were both in on Bauer. I cannot be convinced that AF is not having 2nd, 3rd, and 4th thoughts on this acquisition. Bauer is not the high character player AF likes to employ. If I were AF for a day, I would move him to NYM for a couple of lottery picks or to LAA for Justin Upton, and then look to release Justin Upton. Give him the Carl Crawford or Homer Bailey treatment. Bauer is not someone I would want in the clubhouse. That is just me. I am assuming that the Astros sucked it up and lived with Roberto Osuna. Not the same, I know. But bad character is bad character. And IMO choking a woman unconscious during sex is bad character.

And just in case there is any question. I am not using the media to form any opinion of mine. I can think for myself, thank you very much. And IMO, I would not want Trevor Bauer anywhere near the same clubhouse I was in. Most players do not have a choice, but if I were a FA, one of the first questions I would ask is…”What are your plans for Trevor Bauer”. Hopefully other FAs are less emotional than I would be, but maybe their wives (girlfriends) wouldn’t be.

There is no due process in domestic violence issues in MLB. There is only Robert Manfred, until there is a new CBA. There is less than 96 hours before the CBA expires and then everything will be an unknown. I do think that one reason that Manfred has not suspended Bauer is because I am not sure how much support he has, and I am not sure that he believes he could win in arbitration. So no suspension, his authority is not challenged. I thought it was gutless of him to continue to place Bauer on administrative leave and not just suspend him. IMO he did not want his authority questioned, and Bauer would have challenged him.

Anyway, I am done with Trevor Bauer. If he is still with LAD in 2022, I will not root against the Dodgers when he pitches, but I will not watch the game. I consider him lower than Bear thinks of steroid users.

#2 – Cartaya is 20 and has not played above low A. At 20, Ruiz was playing in AAA and got a cameo appearance in LA as a 21 year old. At 23, Ruiz will be start out 2023 as the everyday catcher for Washington Nationals. At 20, Cartaya will (should) start out in Great Lakes. I see no way for him to continue past AA to AAA in less than a year. Cartaya is not as advanced as was Ruiz. He may have a better ceiling, but he is not yet tested enough to know how he will respond once he starts his climb. I do not think Cartaya will see LA until at least the end of 2023 (for exposure only), but probably not until 2024. I think he makes the team as a backup to Smith in 2024 (later than earlier). He will stay in AAA to continue his development. There is no reason for his talent to sit on the bench (just like Ruiz was not going to sit on a bench). In 2025, he will be 24 and should be the fulltime backup and maybe share the position somewhat. Smith will become a FA after 2025, and the Dodgers will have a decision to make. I do not think the Dodgers have to consider moving Smith to play other positions until 2025, but I suspect, Smith will balk at any move right before his FA year. His bat plays very well behind the dish, and he should garner a ton of FA attention.

Cartaya may be a better defensive catcher in two years, but I doubt that he will be a better receiver. That only comes with experience. Smith is learning, and in two years he could very well show tremendous improvement. I am a Barnes fan because he is a good receiver and that is what is needed as a catcher. He does this in a very limited number of games, and he has no problems doing so. He is an ideal backup catcher.

JT and Edwin Rios – IMO this is where the team is headed for in 2022. Maybe not ideal, but in 100 or so games, JT could be extremely valuable. Rios needs to prove he can come back from shoulder surgery. It will be 9 months since his shoulder surgery when he reports to ST. Is that enough time? Maybe JT for 100 games, Rios for 50, and McKinstry (or Josh Harrison) for 12. Rios can also play 1B and Harrison can play all over. I agree that 3B is not a problem.

Michael Busch – He may not be a MLB 2B, but neither was Max Muncy. Busch might be able to play some LF and 1B, and he might fool everyone and turn into a competent 2B. Probably not GG but competent. Is that enough? But you are right, his bat is what needs to shine, and it looks legit.

Kody Hoese – The Dodgers have no choice but to revamp his swing. He has no trade value whatsoever. Maybe the new swing can transform him. IMO, while I am not a fan of RVS as a team hitting coach, he has proven that he can change a swing. Maybe Hoese should become a RVS client this winter.

AJ Pollock – Does have a $10MM player option for 2023. But it comes with a $5MM buyout. It does have some escalators, but let’s assume that it stays at $10MM/$5MM. It is entirely possible that AJ will trigger the $5MM buyout if he thinks he can get more than $5MM in a new contract. If he has a good season in 2022, he just may for that one last big payday.

Miguel Vargas – He is a pure hitter. But he has no position. For those who have actually watched him, he struggles at 3B. He is more suited for 1B or DH. Yes, he can play 3B. But how many DHs do the Dodgers need in the infield? Vargas, Busch, Hoese, Lewis…all more offensive than defensive. And by the way, I think it is rude and uncalled for to call Brandon Lewis fatboy or former fatboy. Yes he lost a lot of weight, but that was after HS. He has not had that weight for several years. He is a good offensive player that shows a lot of power and can make a ML team someday. He is someone I tabbed from the draft, and became a favorite because of his High School.

Jacob Amaya – I do not think he makes LAD this year. There are no real September callups anymore since the roster is topped at 28. He will undoubtedly get the ST invite, and then be optioned to AAA to improve as a hitter. He will get his first chance to stick in 2023.

Alex De Jesus – I have followed De Jesus since he was signed. He has not garnered the attention of Diego Cartaya who was signed the same year. But I think he makes sense to move to 3B and develop there. He needs to learn plate discipline, and he will be tested in Great Lakes. If he can play well there, he should be on his way.

I like all four pitchers mentioned. Jackson will get a shot at the 5th starter spot (along with Mitch White). Miller will not be on the LAD roster in 2022. He will stay in AAA and continue to hone his development. He needs to work on his command and quit leaving his fastball over the plate. That takes experience, and Miller is easily a mid to top rotation prospect and will not be rushed. Pepiot and Knack both could see LAD this summer, but as relievers, not as starters. I would prefer to see Pepiot stay at AAA and continue his development. Keep him in the rotation. Knack may in fact end up in the pen and that should make him a quicker promotion.

A big difference between Bauer and others is that there’s no one to corroborate what happened. There was nobody present to see with their own eyes what happened. Once Bauer is able to speak and tell his side of the story, there should be another opportunity for people to opine about this matter. The media is currently stating that Bauer is not cooperating with the MLB investigation. The other way to phrase this is that Bauer is being advised by his legal team not to talk to anyone about the matter until the case is dropped by the DA. As a result, most people simply believe the media slant.

I didn’t want to get into this with AC yesterday when he opined that AF would trade him because he has a track record of trading for and signing high character players. I call shenanigans on this. In fact, all of the biggest named players that he’s signed or traded for are no choir boys. Manny Machado, Chase Utley, Max Scherzer and Trevor Bauer all had warts before AF acquired them. Manny has been called the dirtiest player in baseball and Max, the craziest. Utley has been accused of being a dirty player and we all know about Trevor. It seems that Mookie is more of the exception to the rule.

If you look at the Bauer situation logically, it would seem there would be a very little chance of Bauer self-sabotaging his career immediately after this incident. He’s going to be on his best behavior on and off the field after losing as much money as he did. Some of this administrative leave will no doubt be converted into suspension and his pay will eventually be docked for it. He’ll also get at least a little more so that he doesn’t start the season on opening day in order to minimize the distraction.

On a side note, I find it particularly abhorrent that the DA has not done anything to this point. The investigation took a long time to complete and the court hearing was resolved in just a few days with Bauer coming out scott free. So, why is it that the DA is taking longer to make a decision than the preceding investigation and court hearing? This stinks of politics and corruption. Or just a good old fashioned standoff. Does the DA even need to announce that they won’t be pursuing charges? Or is it that Trevor Bauer is actually cooperating by not pressing the MLB to make a decision?

What I do know is that the Commissioner can implement a punishment on his own, but that punishment can also be appealed and forced into arbitration. At that point, it is out of the Commissioner’s hands. Because of this, there’s no way Trevor is going to get a record suspension, especially since he’s maintained his innocence.

Now, I’m going to pose another scenario. Do you think it would attract potential free agents if the Dodgers were to trade Trevor when no guilt could be proven, or do you think it would attract potential free agents if the Dodgers were to stick by their player?

People like to mention the imaginary fan backlash and clubhouse backlash as well. There was a report that “sources familiar with the inner working of the clubhouse” (not coaches or players) said that “most” players didn’t want him back. Well, even that “most” statement implies that many, or some, would welcome him back. As for fan backlash, I haven’t seen any. In fact, after the incident, I still say Dodger’s faithful wear Bauer jerseys to the ballpark.

I just don’t see AF or Kasten as guys that will dump an asset that could help the team for nothing and pay salary to do so. With the short contract that they have, it would make way more sense to have him come back with little fanfare and pitch well enough that he opts out of his deal. Remember, just as many people on this site were just as outraged about Julio Urias.

Good stuff Mark. I am not schooled very well on the legal system. Other than a few traffic violations, I have never had to deal with it. So it is all a wee bit complicated for this old codger. But if I may, my thinking is that A. unless some charges are brought, with the CBA expiring, Manfred is handcuffed somewhat since no one has any idea what the MLBPA is going to seek as far as suspensions or other actions taken against players while under suspicion of some sort of misconduct. B. The MLBPA will most likely lodge a suit against MLB if Bauer is indeed subjected to a suspension without pay. I do not see how MLB can suspend a player if no criminal charges are brought against him. There is a morals clause in all MLB contracts. Does Manfred cite that? I also believe Bauer is a jerk, and maybe a total idiot for soliciting sex online. You would think with all the social media stuff that gets out to the public that players would be smarter than that in their personal encounters. I remember Dave Stewart’s mess with the transvestite hooker. I think all of us would rather see a quicker resolution to the problem if for no other reason than to allow Freidman to get on with the business of building his 2022 version of the Dodgers.

Obviously, MLB has bigger fish to deal than Trevor Bauer with the negotiations moving forward. Maybe they want to suspend him, but that may or may not create a problem. Or perhaps it would be a big distraction.

Based on history, they obviously don’t need the DA to take the next step. Maybe they want the DA to do exactly that offering an easy path for suspension. If they do suspend him, will Bauer take legal action. Perhaps. Could this turn into a massive and ugly issue for MLB? Certainly.

Right now, good old Rob Manfred seems okay with leaving the sleeping dog alone. If he were to suspend Bauer, will any of his teammates protest the move? Probably not. Will anyone who writes on this site post something about undermining Bauer’s rights? No doubt. Is Mark right? Definitely on Will Smith. Time will tell on the other.

But like pretty much everything these days, I’m over it. Honestly don’t care. The cows will never come home on Bauer until Manfred or the DA step up and make a decision. All I want is an agreement, enjoy the hot stove and get ready for spring training. Is that too much to ask?

All kinds of stuff floating around out there this morning.

Gausman supposed to sign this week. Now they’re saying Scherzer might as well. Dodgers, Giants, Angels all in on him as well as the Mets.

Mark, you say it would be very hard for MLB to suspend Bauer without charges being filed by the D.A. There have been other instances where that has happened so I can’t agree with your statement. I’m very ambivalent about the whole Bauer situation but I think it’s absolutely ridiculous that both the D.A. and Manfred haven’t yet taken action. As they say, “sh*t or get off the pot.”

Excellent article in The Athletic by Evan Drellich today giving a complete look at Bruce Myer, the main negotiator for the players. Tony Clark has finally shown some wisdom and stepped aside to concentrate on other duties while putting someone into that spot who knows what he’s doing. No better endorsement for the guy than to say that Max Scherzer is a big fan.

I would be more shocked if it didn’t happen, but I believe Seager is signing this week….with whom I’m not sure, but I hope it’s with the Dodgers.