In no way do I think I have all the answers but do get lucky a lot. I think that it is because I do not think in the box or outside of the box. I prefer to think that there is no box! Three weeks ago, I fired our COO and VP of Operations. They were nice guys and I liked them, but they had no vision. Every day was Ground Hog Day and when you do what you have always done… you get what you have always got. 2021 was the first year in a long-time where we only had single-digit growth. That was unacceptable to me. No excuses!
It turned out that just about every employee underneath them was underutilized and frustrated, and I moved my 23-year-old son to the COO position and spread out the rest of their duties to other lower-level managers. That then allowed me to hire the water industry’s best sales and marketing genius who also believes (like me) that we should be growing at 20% to 30% a year. The move was either bold or reckless. It was at a bad time because November and December are traditionally our best months, or maybe it was at a good time because the best thing you can do is if you have cancer is to immediately get it cut out!
So far, this is our best November ever! I don’t usually just see things as they are: I see what they can or will be. What does this have to do with baseball? It turns out that it has a lot to do with baseball. I am going to give you two examples of how it might (again, I do not have the market cornered on being right).
#1 – Trevor Bauer will be Suspended by MLB for 2022 –
If you are living under a rock or read what the American Media writes, then you may believe this. I happen to think that the opposite is true. If Trevor Bauer is not charged with a crime, MLB has ZERO EVIDENCE to suspend him! ZERO, ZILCH, NADA! For the record, I am not a Trevor Bauer fan (I am not on Twitter and do not care about his opinions). He is somewhat of a Jerk… in my opinion, but he is a damn good pitcher. In case you have no clue… he would not be the first player to be a jerk!
At any rate, since this is the year the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires, if you think the MLBPA is going to allow Trevor Bauer to be suspended when he has not even been found guilty of a crime, then you are dumber than a bag of hammers! Robber Manfred is walking a tightrope and no MLBPA member wants to be put in a position where the Grand PooBah of Baseball can suspend him without any evidence. If you tell me that there is evidence, go back to the bag of hammers. This is going to be a contentious negotiation and the MLBPA and MLB do not need this to muddy the waters.
In case, you cannot understand plain English: If Trevor Bauer is not indicted, he will pitch in the MLB in 2022. Whether it will be with the Dodgers, I cannot predict, but I would guess so. If he is charged… all bets are off! He’s out… probably for good! Many of you have been relying on the media for information, and that makes me sad. Most of those idiots have no clue. Zero!
This is not China. We have Due Process. We have the Constitution. We have a Bill of Rights. Yeah, I know some of you want Socialism, but it’s not here… yet! If Robber Manfred tries to suspend Bauer absent an indictment, there will certainly be an MLBPA Strike… and rightfully so! Write down Trevor Bauers’ name into the rotation next year… unless he is indicted and that appears to be a non-starter!
#2 Will Smith is the Best Catcher in the NL AND WILL MOVE POSITIONS
I happen to agree with that. I said exactly that the other day. Will Smith is the best catcher in the NL. Hands down! He is a great hitter… who will only get better while being a slightly above-average catcher. Will Smith is not a big guy. Catching wears on him. If he played a less taxing position, he would likely be an even better hitter. Most of the Dodgers’ pitchers prefer to throw to Austin Barnes. There is a reason for that. Will Smith is better at blocking pitches than Yasmani Grandal, but he ain’t great.
Will Smith is quick. He is an above-average runner and he is very athletic. He has played 3B and I am sure he could play 2B as well. He might also be an all-star at either position. It made sense to to move him when the Dodgers had Kaybear, as Ruiz only profiled as a catcher, but now that Ruiz is gone, it makes no sense to move Smith just to move him. However, there is a certain twenty-yea-old who is 6′ 3″ and 220 pounds who is often compared to Salvador Perez because of his size and profile, Cartaya moves well behind the plate and has the soft hands to become at least a solid receiver. He also has the plus arm strength and throwing accuracy to control the running game. He earns kudos for his maturity and already shows promise with his game-calling and leadership.
Diego is likely two years away, but he is showing signs of being a generational find. Even though he has only 80 minor league games, he has looked like a man among men. This brings me to my main point: You move Will Smith if you can replace him with an equal or better skill set and he can blossom at another position. It’s a two-for-one-deal. You don’t trade either player – you find place for them both and if Cartaya keeps progressing, he will be a better defensive catcher in 2 years (IMHO).
Other Dodger Players
I could be wrong about both players, but the conventional wisdom is frequently wrong. I choose the other side. There is no box. There may be other players who switch positions, depending upon who the Dodgers sign this offseason. I really want to see what Edwin Rios and do at 3B as he platoons with Justin Turner who will also DH. As DC mentioned yesterday, the Dodgers have several players who are progressing through the farm system – some will be traded, others will be role plers and a few will become stars. Cartaya, Busch, and Vargas are of that ilk and Pages is not far behind. Bobby Miller has the tools of an Ace.
Who plays where depends upon whether Corey Seager re-signs and then what happens with Trea Turner after 2022. It’s possible they Dodgers will retain both, one or neither. Some fans can only see what is. It is very difficult… even impossible for some fans to see what a prospect can evolve into. Of course, this is not an exact science and it is a fact that most prospects do not make it, however with great development methods and facilities, a team has a better chance at player development, and the Dodgers have spent prodigious amounts on player development. Hopefully, it will continue to pay off.
AJ Pollock has a Player Option for 2023 for at least $10,000,000 (it could be more) that at age 35, I believe he will exercise. It’s also my opinion that there is a lot to be decided before Gavin Lux is annointed an infielder again. Not saying he won’t be – it is just that there is growing interest with him as an outfielder.
Mike Busch is starting to look like a polished hitter and even though he has made progress at 2B with the glove, I do not see him as a MLB 2B. Certainly a DH… maybe a 1B, but I have never seen him there. HIs buddy, Kody Hoese has been slowed by his slow bat. The Dodgers felt it necessary to completely overhaul Kody’s swing to speed up his bat. He is very athletic, so there is a solid chance of success here, but I have heard that it was/is a “complete overhaul!” That is going to take some time.
Miguel Vargas is already a polished hitter and if he starts at AAA next year, which he likley will, he could move very quickly. Andy Pages will likely start at AA next year, and he could also move quickly. My darkhorse is ex-fatboy Brandon Lewis, who has lost over 60 pounds but retained his light-tower power. He’s best suited to 1B, where he could be a plus defender. He could also be on a fast track.
Leonard and Vivas are liely a couple of years away, but Lionel Valera could be a little ahead of them and Jacob Amaya will lmost certainly see The Show in 2022. Alex De Jesus could move fast too. Still 19, I would not be surprised to see him in 2023. James Outman will likely have a cup of coffee in 2022. Carson Taylor may be ready to take over for Austin Barnes after his contract runs out in 2022.
Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, Andre Jackson, and Landon Knack might be counted upon somewhat is 2022. Of course, some will stall, some will go backwards and some will move forward. This is the fun of watching the youngsters progress through the system. 2022 will be an eventful year, but I have a feeling we are getting ready for a wild ride with the CBA!
Discussion (75)
Disagree, not disagreeable
rn
1. Buehler
2. Urias
3. Heaney
4. Gonsolin
5. Price
6. Jackson
7. White
We need 2 SP
One hell of a busy day. Dodgers made one signing, and lost a couple of their key players from last year. But you have to think they made the right choices. For the amounts of money thrown at Seager and Scherzer, the Dodgers can now extend Turner if he and they agree, add a couple of free agent bench pieces and there are still some starting pitchers out there in either trades or free agency. Late this evening it looks as though Javier Baez is going to sign with the Tigers, who have a glaring need at SS. It is said to be a 6 year deal. MLB made a proposal to the MLBPA for a 14 team playoff format. The top seed would get a bye and the other two division winners would get to pick which wild card team they would face ala the NFL.
FWIW, I suspect that the Rangers will regret the Seager deal, mostly because he has no record of being durable.
It’s strange to me when baseball pundits insist that Tommy John surgery and a broken hand on a pitch should not add to a reputation of being “injury-prone.” TJ surgery is reflection of wear and tear. My guess is that the hands of Cal Ripken and Steve Garvey and other durable stars got nailed with fastballs on their hands without breaking a bone. (To be fair, the fastballs are faster now.) Still, bone density is a real thing, and so is the instinct to avoid pitches that can do serious damage.
Semien has a track record of durability. It puzzles me that Seager’s history didn’t seem to discount his market value a bit. (I expect he’ll move to 3rd or 1st for the Rangers.)
So between Seager’s fragility and his meh fielding, I’m glad the Dodger brass will have some $300 million to invest elsewhere. Not that I don’t wish Seager well. I just wish the Dodgers better.
Like MT, I have a top secret source. Mine is telling me Castellanos to SF is done.
Some things to with money:
1. Give Buehler long-term contract
2. Give Urias multi-year deal
3. Buy out Will Smith’s pre-arb & arb years
4. Sign Kris Bryant
5 . Sign Marcus Stroman
Well I hope that if they’re going to continue to charge as much as they do now for seats, concessions, etc. then they will continue to bring in the players that will keep them on top as needed. It’s been fun looking forward to each season these last few years. I hope its not over now.
With this whirlwind of free agent signings everywhere but us, that’s when I feel uneasy about that apparent passivity of AF, I feel like an orphan at the mercy of the entire league without having ammunition with which to respond. I hope some nice news no later than tomorrow.
Big money has ruined my enjoyment of baseball. Guys don’t stick with the team that drafted them for very long. It’s all about the money now.
I have been a Dodger fan a long time as have most of you. I have watched players come and go over all these years and quit being upset by it years ago. I actually cried when they sold Duke Snider. He was my favorite and having him go to the Mets seemed like humiliating a great player by sending him to the worst team in the league. Of course Duke was welcomed back to New York and his old Dodger fans got to see him for one more season before the Mets sold him to the Giants. I guess what really got me off of the favorite player train was free agency. Players left on their own and they did it for better money in most cases. The first taste of that bitter pill was Garvey. I respected Garv and his play. He was the most consistent Dodger and played everyday. But he was not the heart of those teams, I always thought the heart was Davey Lopes. But Lopes was traded as was Cey. But Garv, he went down south, and that was it as far as I was concerned. I am not going to invest my time in a player who is going to finish their career elsewhere. And over the years they all have one way or another. Russell stayed a Dodger and even managed for a couple of years. But the career Dodger is something that has been missing for a long time. I would love to see Kersh retire a Dodger. It just does not seem right him finishing in some other uni. But if it happens, well , we can all be happy he is somewhere he wants to be. Jansen also is a career Dodger. Will that continue? Up to KJ and the front office. Today is kind of a black Monday for some Dodger fans. Especially if you check out Twitter and all of the oh me, what shall we do now tweets. I am pretty sure AF has been working on contingency plans all off season. He knew the possibilities long before we did. He will do what it takes to put the best team on the field possible. It will be missing some important parts, but the front of the uniform will still say Dodgers. The names on the back are only part of the game.
Passan reporting that we’re about to sign Daniel Hudson to a 1 year/$7 MM contract.
Seager leaving is a disappointment, but also a relief. He is one of the best offensive players in the game when he’s healthy. His defense is just not very good for such a key defensive position. It’s not AF’s MO to overpay (except in special cases like Mookie).
The Dodgers can now move on. Next is Taylor, who is looking for a multi-year deal. I wouldn’t be surprised nor heartbroken if he left, too. You can ALMOST see the Dodgers in a quasi rebuilding phase. Last year AF described the Dodgers as being “pigs.” They went all out – paid $$$ for Bauer, and then traded for Scherzer and TT. They were all in and came up short.
They deviated from their normal strategy in building organizations when they signed Mookie to the extension, signed Bauer and traded highly touted prospects for Max and TT. I think they might go back to looking for market inefficiencies and building from within. The Padres model of overspending to buy winning teams – a strategy that’s now being used by the Mets and Rangers – is just as likely to blow up in their faces. Glad the Dodgers are staying away from that.
The upside to losing Seager, and perhaps Kershaw and Taylor, is that they will get draft picks, and considering the Rangers were terrible last year, could be pretty good.
I do not hate any of the free agents when they leave. It is their choice, and usually it is an economic one, they want the money. How can one blame Max for getting 43.3 mil a year at his age? Same with Seager, I could live a few lifetimes on that kind of money. They are both now former Dodgers, but their departure opens the door to a lot of possibilities in the trade market and with remaining free agents. Why does AF have to go for the high priced spread? Chapman, his defense and power are awesome, his K rate not so good. And he would not be cheap in trade. The best arms in free agency are gone as Ray signed today also with the Mariners. But look at the bright side, none of those guys signed with a team in our division. We will only see Max maybe twice a year. Corey only when they play the AL west. Maybe he went to Texas because he loved hitting in that ballpark during the playoffs in 2020. Right now they are set at every position except 1st with the news of Muncy’s torn ACL. They have a lot of options. Neither the Giants or Padres have made any significant pick ups either. And the Giants lost a huge piece in Gausman and with Posey’s retirement. I hate the waiting, but AF has rarely struck early in the winter. With the possibility of there being a transaction freeze along with a lock out, AF has time to peruse hit options.
Friedman is a difficult man to read. No one really knows what he is up to; hence, the acquisition of Scherzer and Turner that no one saw coming. My guess, which is as good or bad as any, is that the big off-season move will be an extension to Trae Turner. As much as I love Seager, having Turner at SS is the superior longterm move.
Here is for wishing Corey Seager a bright future in Texas!
Let’s not forget how the Braves won the World Series last year.
They went out and got 3 Journeymen Outfielders at the trade deadline.
I’ll take the “under” on whether the Mets make the playoffs next year.
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/vin-scully-on-gil-hodges-for-hall-of-fame
I saw a lot of risk with Scherzer. He missed a little time around the All-Star game and didn’t answer the bell in the post-season. I think he’s an injury waiting to happen. Corey is the one that stings, but that was a really fat offer. The Rangers are serious, but those are some big contracts. There’s a lot of pop on that team in the middle of that infield.
I guess he was worth 30M after all. I guess Scherzer wasn’t worth 50M per year after all. I’ll just go ahead and pat myself on the back on both of those as I argued Seager would get $30 and Scherzer wouldn’t get $50.
I sure hope we’re in on Correa or Story. Both are better defensive shortstops IMO. I think Story had an arm problem last year, so signing him is a little scary. Correa’s back is also scary, but he always hits in the post-season, unlike Seags. Unfortunately, I think Correa’s gonna want more cash than Seags. If we didn’t give it to Seager, we probably won’t give it to Correa.
Correa is like Bauer to me. I don’t have to like the person to want them on the team. I would welcome him to the team, but he won’t be my favorite player like Seags was. I guess Smith now takes the top spot in my mind with Belli a close second. Seager is dead to me now.
Both Scherzer and Seager got more than I expected. I didn’t foresee salaries increasing by this much and so many teams willing to go that high. I honestly thought Seager would ultimately sign with us for 8 years and $28-30M. I thought Max would be 2 and 40 per with some kind of option. Maybe AF didn’t read the market.
I hate these 10 year deals. The ones we sign as well as the ones we don’t. I just don’t see how it makes any sense that you can have an injured or sucky player, have to pay him for the life of that contract, and then you get penalized by the CBT if you want to replace him with a quality player. I just don’t see how that’s a good system.
As a fan, I want players that want to be with and stay with the team that developed them while getting paid fairly to do so. The current system isn’t getting that done.
Who is going to be our ace? Striker? Urias? Who’s left out there that would be considered an ace? Kershaw might want to go to the Rangers now… but I would take him as a #3 or 4 starter for two years with an option for a 3rd. But we need a true ace. I hope its Striker, but don’t know for sure if he has what it takes mentally to be that guy on a regular basis. He showed a lot in the playoffs wanting the ball for big games but, we need a guy who leads during the season too. Just wondering what Friedman is thinking…
Corey is a class act who did his best every game he was an average SS for us. As he ages he will slide over to 3b at Texas and rake for them at the plate. If the DH comes to the NL then Turner can fill that spot and Rios can bring his prodigious power to 1b/3b. Or maybe we get Bryant for 3rd. I like that idea.
No Scherzer, No Ray, No Corey, No Thor. This offseason sucks ass so far. I’m really disappointed in Seager. I guess it’s just all about the money for some.
So the Rangers sign two of the top shortstops on the market, Ouch! That really stings.
Kershaw should go sign there as well, as long as their spending like drunken sailors.
No Gausman, no Gray. I can’t help but feel like the music stopped and there’s no more chairs!
Very disappointing to lose Seager. It is doubtful that there will be anyone in our entire minor league system for the next five years who will project to equal the still remaining potential of Seager. The Dodgers may be planning for three years for now, but the immediate future is not bright. No Seager, no Scherzer, and not much left out there, outside of a stunning surprise. I liked Kluber, too.
I’m happy with Corey’s departure, there’s no way you can pay that amount to a player who can only hit, this is good for the Dodgers because they improve on the field and it is good for Corey because he gets what he wanted; now our SS, for 2022, is the top player, a complete player, Freidman is a genius. If in the coming months he gives an extension to TT then I uncover the champagne, it would be Checkmate, remember he plays chess at the highest level.
Miami acquires catcher Jacob Stallings from Pittsburgh. The Fish now have a catcher worthy of working with that stable of thoroughbred starting pitchers they have.
The Dodgers will be different next year for sure. Lots of teams throwing lots of money around.
I’m sure that Friedman has a trick or two up his sleeve – look for a trade that you didn’t expect (or maybe one that you did).
Well there’s always Chris Taylor. Seriously Freeman would be interesting but Muncy was a gold glove quality first baseman. Alternatively would provide insurance if Muncy takes longer to recover.
To what extent does this free up funds to bring back sone Dodger FA?
I was ok not signing Scherzer but this one hurts. We’ll hear that the Dodgers came up a bit short in their offer but I’m kind of glad they didn’t go 32.5 AAV, that’s some ridiculous BS right there.
TT is our SS and I can now see the Dodgers going after Bryant or even Freeman. This one hurts a lot but we tip our hat to him and if you can get that money I say congratulations.
Is KJ or CK the next one to go? Have I mentioned lately that Boras is an asshole
Now Clayton might have to seriously consider the Rangers. Before the past couple of days it was a non starter.
I couldn’t see Corey living in places like Philly, Boston or even New York, but Dallas suits his personality perfectly. And we need to remember, most of us thought he was gone the minute we traded for Trea.
Seager 10/324 to Texas.
Go get your cash my man; I can’t hate on you for that. Thanks for the Ring
10 years $325MM for Seager from Texas.
Bye Bye Corey!
What exactly did Ozuna do in comparison to what Bauer is accused of?
This from Ken Rosenthal:
“MLB announces discipline for Marcell Ozuna under its domestic-violence policy, an unpaid 20-game suspension that includes all 20 regular-season games he served while on administrative leave from Sept. 10 to end of ‘21 season. So, he can return immediately at start of ‘22 season.”
Mariners signing Ray.
The Rays will probably use Kluber to start one of their bullpen games. The Dodgers could have done that. He should be good for 3 or 4 innings every 5th day as a starter. If lucky, he gives the Rays 5 innings.
I’m glad Scherzer moved on.
I’m okay if Kershaw retires.
I want Seager at shortstop next year and Lux at second base. Trade Trea for pitching or for a third baseman. In 2023 they can rotate Seager to third and Lux to SS and find a second baseman.
If Seager leaves, then obviously it will be Trea at short and hopefully Lux at second, JT at third, Muncy at 1st, arm permitting.
I am not going to worry too much if the rotation in 2022 uses a mix of Buehler, Urias, Heany, Gonsolin, White, Jackson, Miller, May.
Oddly, Kevin Goldstein just wrapped a wonderful chat.
What’s odd about that? Well, he actually touches on what Bear and I were discussing. The idea of attributing a $ per win metric.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-11-29-2021/
No problem Bluto. How many times have we ever agreed on anything? Scherzer is now a Met, so to me he is persona non grata. I am glad LA was not nuts enough to pay that much money for a guy his age. They got a better bargain out of him for a rental than they did from Darvish or Machado.
Glad the Mets and not the Dodgers are handing out that contract. That is a crazy deal for a soon to be 38 year old pitcher. I understand why the Mets feel the need to spend that kind of money on an aging pitcher, but the potential reward is not worth the risk for the Dodgers. There is simply better ways for the Dodgers to invest their money.
No doubt, the Dodgers could use another starting pitcher, but Dodger brass should feel no pressure to make a signing like that. If Bauer has not been convicted of a crime by now, it is becoming more likely he will be walking away with nothing more than a settlement and a tarnished name.
The court of public opinion has spoken, but the longer the legal system takes to lay judgement, the less this appears to be a clear cut case.
I forget who I’m stealing this from:
This is exactly what the other 29 owners were scared of when it was time to approve Cohen as Mets owner: old-school Steinbrenner.
Still tons of offseason to go, but in Cohen’s post-Matz tirade, this are the top three current payrolls:
Mets: $268M
Yankees: $215M
Dodgers: $206M
THIS WAS ABSOLUTELY THE RIGHT MOVE!
A non-move!
Deal for Max is supposedly done. Announced seconds ago on MLBTR. 1/130. Good luck Max. Enjoy all the BS New York has to offer. And finishing second to the Braves.
Scherzer and Mets finalizing a 3/130 deal according to Jon Heyman.
That’s a lot of cash; glad we didn’t go there.
How would we feel if Kershaw retired, ala Posey?
I personally would be fine with it and would celebrate his tenure before moving on.
If the going rate for Scherzer is 4/40 AAV, then bye, Max. It would be a possibility if there was some sort of resolution on Bauer. If he is suspended without pay, then that’s money off the books you could have directed to Scherzer. If the Bauer situation is still in limbo, then no Max.
This is a problem for the Dodgers. I don’t think they can compete for a WS without that true difference-maker. The Dodgers were treading water until they picked him up last year. Sorry, Heaney ain’t gonna cut it. An aging, injured and declining Kershaw isn’t going to drag them over the line. Stroman? Whatever. He’s decent, but not enough to move the needle.
No one is arguing that Bauer ought to be convicted of a crime without a preponderance of evidence. If the threshold for conviction is not there, then he shouldn’t be charged – even though there is a possibility he did physically assault her.
The threshold for guilt in a criminal case is completely different than the MLB domestic abuse policy. Actually, there is a difference between the criminal and civil court system, since we’re bringing up OJ. He was notoriously acquitted in his criminal case, but lost his civil case against the Goldman family.
There is no stare decisis in baseball. They are free to make any personnel decisions they want, the only check being pushback from the player’s association. There is no jurisprudence involved.
If Bauer thinks he is suspended unfairly, he has legal recourse, and could potentially sue for the 20 million he stands to lose. If no charges are brought by the Pasadena DA, or if he’s even miraculously exonerated, then that will help his case, but it has no direct bearing on MLB’s decision to suspend him.
oh….another post of mine is in moderation jail again.
Mets have re-engaged Scherzer in contract talks. Dodgers reluctant to go beyond a 2 year deal and Boras is pushing for 4. At those prices, let them have him. I am more concerned with bringing back Seager, who is supposedly close to signing a new deal with no team given. Louis Avilan signed with the Nats and C Aramis Garcia has signed a deal with the Reds. At one time he was Posey’s back up in SF. Happy 94th birthday to Dodger legend, Vin Scully!
Dodgerpatch commented about Sam Dyson and how MLB suspended him for a year without him being charged with a crime. Consider this about that case:
1. Dyson admitted it;
2. Dyson entered a treatment program; and
3. Dyson agreed to the suspension.
The Dyson case sets no precedent for the Bauer case.
No stare decisis here!
Castellanos is seeking a 7-8 year deal. I doubt he gets that. No Scherzer or Seager news yet. Miami still in the outfielder market. Another story that the Reds have had trade talks about not only Gray, but Mahle and Castillo too. Hey, send Castillo to LA.
I just read through the comments here about Trevor Bauer and frankly, I am appalled! I am appalled that you believe an allegation is evidence. EVERY SINGLE THING we have read about the case against Trevor Bauer is an accusation. EVERYTHING.
At this juncture, any evidence he has should only be presented in a court of law. He is under no obligation to deny anything in the court of public opinion… nor should he. You have not heard his side of the story and yet many of you think you know things.
You don’t know Jack $hit! Neither do I. You are assuming… I assume nothing!
Maybe he is guilty of everything. Maybe he is guilty of nothing, but I find it very unsettling that many of you are quick to convict without evidence. “But he punched the woman.” That’s an accusation… not a fact.
I am appalled beyond belief that many of you have already convicted him.
The cases are entirely different, but when I predicted OJ Simpson would not be convicted, some ex-friends wanted to fight me. One refused to talk to me for 14 years until he finally apologized. In your haste to convict you have lost track of what are “facts” and what are simply “allegations.” This is not China!
Going into the offseason, I did not expect Max Scherzer to sign with the Dodgers. I did expect Seager to do so. I also expected Clayton to retire. I have not been wrong… yet!
Just to be clear, I am not a Bauer fan. However, I am a fan of Due Process! All we have are accusations. Give Due Process a chance and THEN form an opinion.
I’m hoping Steve Cohen will bankrupt himself. Maybe he’ll take Bauer in a trade? I suspect they’re temperamentally well matched.
Thanks to AC for having the courage of his convictions and the patience to maintain them. I very much appreciate his comments, especially concerning Trevor Bauer. Jeff, you are not alone!
And hooray for Lincoln Riley! Welcome to my alma mater.
Bear, you were complaining that Hill doesn’t pitch enough innings.
Just for the record, he pitched more innings than Kershaw last year and only 20 fewer than Scherzer.
True, Greinke hasn’t pitched all that well, but that sparkling personality is just too much to resist.
I’m sure I’m going to hear it from some stupid Met fans here in NY, but frankly I’m more than a little happy that the Dodgers didn’t bite. Something tells me that they can put their money to better use. And reports that Scherzer is 37 are true, but not completely so. He’s 37 today, but will turn 38 in July.
I am more than a little confidant that AF can put $120 million (or less) to better use, and in multiple places.
Ya gotta love it. Twitter goes absolutely ape shit over stuff like this. Oh no Andrew, say it ain’t so! Dodgers will be scared of the Mets if Scherzer signs there. All sorts of wacko’s coming out of the wood work. Only reason I go there is because Heyman, Passan and Rosenthal usually post the breaking stories there. Found out about the Scherzer trade to LA that way.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Texas is very much in the mix for Corey Seager. I do not like to hear that, but with Trea Turner the Dodgers will not be without an elite SS if Seags does bolt for Texas or NYY.
As of 10:08 this evening, MLBTR reporting the Mets are close to signing Max Scherzer for a deal that has a 40 mil AAV. Highest in MLB history. As much as I love Max, Dodgers can better use their resources elsewhere. NO PITCHER is worth that kind of scratch.
Angels signed Michael Lorenzen to a one year deal.
Maybe it’s time to bring back Rich Hill and Zack Greinke.
Heyman now saying Mets are leading the Scherzer derby. Dodgers still in it but pessimistic. Could be a 4 year deal.
Kris Bryant talk has been quiet. Are we making a stealth run?
Texas is looking to compete. They have signed Jon Gray to a four year deal, $56MM.
Miami extends, Sandy Alcantara, 5 years $56MM. Who needs the winter meetings.
The Trevor Bauer conundrum is the kind of thing that completely turns me away from following the game. I’m sure these things have always happened, but now with social media and easy access to public figures, they get exposed. Lurid stories about ball players going back decades were rarely reported, but then Bouton’s “Ball Four” opened the of worms and we see sides of players we never knew.
Some fans will say “who cares? It is their own personal business,” but most won’t. These days with the current political climate- abuse, violence, anything hinted of the sort, will not be ignored. It is the climate we are living in and Bauer is smack dab in. Remember when Bobby Cox was arrested for beating his wife? That occurred in May, 1995, the year his Braves won the World Series. Had that happened nowadays, he never would have achieved his Hall of Fame career. He would have been done.
Today, you don’t simply get away with the appearance of inappropriate behavior, and that is what is so bothersome about the whole Bauer story. He should have known better. He should have been smart enough to avoid the entire situation altogether. He had 120 million reasons to be cautious.
I don’t mean to demean the woman involved in the story, but enough has come out to indicate that she has been engaged in sexual liaisons with several other athletes. How could a guy be so freaking stupid and risk everything for what was essentially (my opinion) a ball player groupie?
Legally I don’t see how MLB can continue keeping him from playing the game. He already was banned from the sport for half a season. I suppose Manfred could impose a suspension for 2022, but it certainly will be met with a legal protest by Bauer. Does the Commissioner even want to go there with all the other distractions he has to deal with regarding the CBA?
There are the Dodgers, who can pay him his salary and refuse to play him. An option that they might just take. Nobody likes eating a $40+ million salary, but the man has apparently lost his teammates. He has lost the fan base. If he returns, the distraction will probably outweigh the benefits he brings.
Bauer’s reckless behavior was dirt stupid. His arrogance extends on and off the field. How in the world could he put so much at risk to satisfy his off the wall sexual fetishes. It makes me wonder if he has deeper issues that might need to be dealt with by a liscensed professional counselor or therapist. His selfishness probably cost the Dodgers the title. There are many that won’t forgive.
Gausman to Blue Jays – 5 years $110MM. I now expect the Giants to come hard for Max.
Marcus Semien to the Rangers. 7 years 175 milli9n.
Both LA NFL football teams getting their asses whipped today. Green Bay dominating the Rams and the Bronco’s beating the Chargers easily.
I would be saying good enough if Dodgers traded Bauer for Upton and then release Upton, like AC suggested.
That’s pretty good thinking AC considering you can’t see the wisdom of trading for Chapman or Buxton.
Rangers on a roll. Now they are signing Kole Calhoun.
The police dept of Jupiter, FL, when confronted with evidence, including images of bruised arms, declined to press charges against Sam Dyson. They didn’t think they had a strong case. He was subsequently suspended by the MLB for the entirety of the 2021 season. The Pasadena DA might decline to press charges because it’s a tricky case that doesn’t have a high likelihood of conviction. MLB can still suspend him.
The legal system that is responsible for adjudicating guilt or innocence and meting out punishment is separate from the domestic abuse conduct policy of MLB. The former may have an influence on the latter, but they are not linked. The MLB is perfectly within its rights to suspend a player they believe has violated their domestic abuse policy.
Will they? I think so. It depends, however, if Manfred thinks that Bauer will make a big legal and PR stink about his suspension and create a lot of negative publicity. Manfred is, above all, a PR managing commissioner. He wants ugly distractions from revenue and growth to go away. He wants Bauer to go away, and he might be successful because Bauer doesn’t seem like he’s particularly popular among his peers. He’s kind of a weirdo. Perhaps the PA is less likely to go to bat for him.
The other scenario, if Manfred thinks that Bauer will make a lot of legal noise by his suspension, is to quietly allow him to come back while trying to manage any PR fallout. That then puts the onus on the Dodgers, who will most likely try to trade him at a loss. I don’t think the Dodgers want him in the clubhouse any more.
…. on the other hand …. if he comes back that fills a big hole in a starting rotation that currently has big holes.
Avsail Garcia 4 years $53MM to Miami.
Marcus Semien reportedly signs a 7 year deal with Texas.
I would like for anyone to explain what Manfred could suspend Bauer for IF THE DA DOES NOT BRING CHARGES!
Think about it before responding! This is very problematic.
Sorry Bum.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/twins-byron-buxton-agree-to-extension.html#comments
I know this is not USC Talk, but it does get mentioned. It appears that USC has their new coach…Lincoln Riley. This is a homerun hire for my Trojans. I see a lot of Oklahoma Sooner commits changing their mind, and the transfer portal should be filled with players who may want to come west. A great day to be a Trojan. Now my Packers need to win. Sorry Rams fans.
A couple of retorts. First, I agree with you that if Bauer is not indicted, MLB does not have enough evidence in their investigation to suspend him unilaterally. Bauer (and for very good reason) is not cooperating with MLB so as not to say something that will come back to bite him in the *** if this ever does go to trial (criminal or civil). While I do have a problem with MLB not being precise in their investigation and coming to a conclusion, I am more concerned about the LA District Attorney’s office and not going forth with any indictment or refusing to indict. The police wrapped up their investigation and presented it to the DA on August 27. We are now more than three months after the case was turned over, and no word. Is that normal? I have no clue? Maybe Rick or Rob can shed some light. (or any other attorney).
Of course you are right that Bauer is not the first Jerk to play MLB. He is also not the first to play for LAD. But the others were moved out. Machado was a need but as soon as that need was no more, the same was true for Machado. There is no way AF would have re-signed Machado. Puig was not as big of a jerk, but he was a nuisance. He was dispatched as well. Trevor Bauer was an overreaction to what NYM and SDP was doing and they were both in on Bauer. I cannot be convinced that AF is not having 2nd, 3rd, and 4th thoughts on this acquisition. Bauer is not the high character player AF likes to employ. If I were AF for a day, I would move him to NYM for a couple of lottery picks or to LAA for Justin Upton, and then look to release Justin Upton. Give him the Carl Crawford or Homer Bailey treatment. Bauer is not someone I would want in the clubhouse. That is just me. I am assuming that the Astros sucked it up and lived with Roberto Osuna. Not the same, I know. But bad character is bad character. And IMO choking a woman unconscious during sex is bad character.
And just in case there is any question. I am not using the media to form any opinion of mine. I can think for myself, thank you very much. And IMO, I would not want Trevor Bauer anywhere near the same clubhouse I was in. Most players do not have a choice, but if I were a FA, one of the first questions I would ask is…”What are your plans for Trevor Bauer”. Hopefully other FAs are less emotional than I would be, but maybe their wives (girlfriends) wouldn’t be.
There is no due process in domestic violence issues in MLB. There is only Robert Manfred, until there is a new CBA. There is less than 96 hours before the CBA expires and then everything will be an unknown. I do think that one reason that Manfred has not suspended Bauer is because I am not sure how much support he has, and I am not sure that he believes he could win in arbitration. So no suspension, his authority is not challenged. I thought it was gutless of him to continue to place Bauer on administrative leave and not just suspend him. IMO he did not want his authority questioned, and Bauer would have challenged him.
Anyway, I am done with Trevor Bauer. If he is still with LAD in 2022, I will not root against the Dodgers when he pitches, but I will not watch the game. I consider him lower than Bear thinks of steroid users.
#2 – Cartaya is 20 and has not played above low A. At 20, Ruiz was playing in AAA and got a cameo appearance in LA as a 21 year old. At 23, Ruiz will be start out 2023 as the everyday catcher for Washington Nationals. At 20, Cartaya will (should) start out in Great Lakes. I see no way for him to continue past AA to AAA in less than a year. Cartaya is not as advanced as was Ruiz. He may have a better ceiling, but he is not yet tested enough to know how he will respond once he starts his climb. I do not think Cartaya will see LA until at least the end of 2023 (for exposure only), but probably not until 2024. I think he makes the team as a backup to Smith in 2024 (later than earlier). He will stay in AAA to continue his development. There is no reason for his talent to sit on the bench (just like Ruiz was not going to sit on a bench). In 2025, he will be 24 and should be the fulltime backup and maybe share the position somewhat. Smith will become a FA after 2025, and the Dodgers will have a decision to make. I do not think the Dodgers have to consider moving Smith to play other positions until 2025, but I suspect, Smith will balk at any move right before his FA year. His bat plays very well behind the dish, and he should garner a ton of FA attention.
Cartaya may be a better defensive catcher in two years, but I doubt that he will be a better receiver. That only comes with experience. Smith is learning, and in two years he could very well show tremendous improvement. I am a Barnes fan because he is a good receiver and that is what is needed as a catcher. He does this in a very limited number of games, and he has no problems doing so. He is an ideal backup catcher.
JT and Edwin Rios – IMO this is where the team is headed for in 2022. Maybe not ideal, but in 100 or so games, JT could be extremely valuable. Rios needs to prove he can come back from shoulder surgery. It will be 9 months since his shoulder surgery when he reports to ST. Is that enough time? Maybe JT for 100 games, Rios for 50, and McKinstry (or Josh Harrison) for 12. Rios can also play 1B and Harrison can play all over. I agree that 3B is not a problem.
Michael Busch – He may not be a MLB 2B, but neither was Max Muncy. Busch might be able to play some LF and 1B, and he might fool everyone and turn into a competent 2B. Probably not GG but competent. Is that enough? But you are right, his bat is what needs to shine, and it looks legit.
Kody Hoese – The Dodgers have no choice but to revamp his swing. He has no trade value whatsoever. Maybe the new swing can transform him. IMO, while I am not a fan of RVS as a team hitting coach, he has proven that he can change a swing. Maybe Hoese should become a RVS client this winter.
AJ Pollock – Does have a $10MM player option for 2023. But it comes with a $5MM buyout. It does have some escalators, but let’s assume that it stays at $10MM/$5MM. It is entirely possible that AJ will trigger the $5MM buyout if he thinks he can get more than $5MM in a new contract. If he has a good season in 2022, he just may for that one last big payday.
Miguel Vargas – He is a pure hitter. But he has no position. For those who have actually watched him, he struggles at 3B. He is more suited for 1B or DH. Yes, he can play 3B. But how many DHs do the Dodgers need in the infield? Vargas, Busch, Hoese, Lewis…all more offensive than defensive. And by the way, I think it is rude and uncalled for to call Brandon Lewis fatboy or former fatboy. Yes he lost a lot of weight, but that was after HS. He has not had that weight for several years. He is a good offensive player that shows a lot of power and can make a ML team someday. He is someone I tabbed from the draft, and became a favorite because of his High School.
Jacob Amaya – I do not think he makes LAD this year. There are no real September callups anymore since the roster is topped at 28. He will undoubtedly get the ST invite, and then be optioned to AAA to improve as a hitter. He will get his first chance to stick in 2023.
Alex De Jesus – I have followed De Jesus since he was signed. He has not garnered the attention of Diego Cartaya who was signed the same year. But I think he makes sense to move to 3B and develop there. He needs to learn plate discipline, and he will be tested in Great Lakes. If he can play well there, he should be on his way.
I like all four pitchers mentioned. Jackson will get a shot at the 5th starter spot (along with Mitch White). Miller will not be on the LAD roster in 2022. He will stay in AAA and continue to hone his development. He needs to work on his command and quit leaving his fastball over the plate. That takes experience, and Miller is easily a mid to top rotation prospect and will not be rushed. Pepiot and Knack both could see LAD this summer, but as relievers, not as starters. I would prefer to see Pepiot stay at AAA and continue his development. Keep him in the rotation. Knack may in fact end up in the pen and that should make him a quicker promotion.
A big difference between Bauer and others is that there’s no one to corroborate what happened. There was nobody present to see with their own eyes what happened. Once Bauer is able to speak and tell his side of the story, there should be another opportunity for people to opine about this matter. The media is currently stating that Bauer is not cooperating with the MLB investigation. The other way to phrase this is that Bauer is being advised by his legal team not to talk to anyone about the matter until the case is dropped by the DA. As a result, most people simply believe the media slant.
I didn’t want to get into this with AC yesterday when he opined that AF would trade him because he has a track record of trading for and signing high character players. I call shenanigans on this. In fact, all of the biggest named players that he’s signed or traded for are no choir boys. Manny Machado, Chase Utley, Max Scherzer and Trevor Bauer all had warts before AF acquired them. Manny has been called the dirtiest player in baseball and Max, the craziest. Utley has been accused of being a dirty player and we all know about Trevor. It seems that Mookie is more of the exception to the rule.
If you look at the Bauer situation logically, it would seem there would be a very little chance of Bauer self-sabotaging his career immediately after this incident. He’s going to be on his best behavior on and off the field after losing as much money as he did. Some of this administrative leave will no doubt be converted into suspension and his pay will eventually be docked for it. He’ll also get at least a little more so that he doesn’t start the season on opening day in order to minimize the distraction.
On a side note, I find it particularly abhorrent that the DA has not done anything to this point. The investigation took a long time to complete and the court hearing was resolved in just a few days with Bauer coming out scott free. So, why is it that the DA is taking longer to make a decision than the preceding investigation and court hearing? This stinks of politics and corruption. Or just a good old fashioned standoff. Does the DA even need to announce that they won’t be pursuing charges? Or is it that Trevor Bauer is actually cooperating by not pressing the MLB to make a decision?
What I do know is that the Commissioner can implement a punishment on his own, but that punishment can also be appealed and forced into arbitration. At that point, it is out of the Commissioner’s hands. Because of this, there’s no way Trevor is going to get a record suspension, especially since he’s maintained his innocence.
Now, I’m going to pose another scenario. Do you think it would attract potential free agents if the Dodgers were to trade Trevor when no guilt could be proven, or do you think it would attract potential free agents if the Dodgers were to stick by their player?
People like to mention the imaginary fan backlash and clubhouse backlash as well. There was a report that “sources familiar with the inner working of the clubhouse” (not coaches or players) said that “most” players didn’t want him back. Well, even that “most” statement implies that many, or some, would welcome him back. As for fan backlash, I haven’t seen any. In fact, after the incident, I still say Dodger’s faithful wear Bauer jerseys to the ballpark.
I just don’t see AF or Kasten as guys that will dump an asset that could help the team for nothing and pay salary to do so. With the short contract that they have, it would make way more sense to have him come back with little fanfare and pitch well enough that he opts out of his deal. Remember, just as many people on this site were just as outraged about Julio Urias.
Good stuff Mark. I am not schooled very well on the legal system. Other than a few traffic violations, I have never had to deal with it. So it is all a wee bit complicated for this old codger. But if I may, my thinking is that A. unless some charges are brought, with the CBA expiring, Manfred is handcuffed somewhat since no one has any idea what the MLBPA is going to seek as far as suspensions or other actions taken against players while under suspicion of some sort of misconduct. B. The MLBPA will most likely lodge a suit against MLB if Bauer is indeed subjected to a suspension without pay. I do not see how MLB can suspend a player if no criminal charges are brought against him. There is a morals clause in all MLB contracts. Does Manfred cite that? I also believe Bauer is a jerk, and maybe a total idiot for soliciting sex online. You would think with all the social media stuff that gets out to the public that players would be smarter than that in their personal encounters. I remember Dave Stewart’s mess with the transvestite hooker. I think all of us would rather see a quicker resolution to the problem if for no other reason than to allow Freidman to get on with the business of building his 2022 version of the Dodgers.
Obviously, MLB has bigger fish to deal than Trevor Bauer with the negotiations moving forward. Maybe they want to suspend him, but that may or may not create a problem. Or perhaps it would be a big distraction.
Based on history, they obviously don’t need the DA to take the next step. Maybe they want the DA to do exactly that offering an easy path for suspension. If they do suspend him, will Bauer take legal action. Perhaps. Could this turn into a massive and ugly issue for MLB? Certainly.
Right now, good old Rob Manfred seems okay with leaving the sleeping dog alone. If he were to suspend Bauer, will any of his teammates protest the move? Probably not. Will anyone who writes on this site post something about undermining Bauer’s rights? No doubt. Is Mark right? Definitely on Will Smith. Time will tell on the other.
But like pretty much everything these days, I’m over it. Honestly don’t care. The cows will never come home on Bauer until Manfred or the DA step up and make a decision. All I want is an agreement, enjoy the hot stove and get ready for spring training. Is that too much to ask?
All kinds of stuff floating around out there this morning.
Gausman supposed to sign this week. Now they’re saying Scherzer might as well. Dodgers, Giants, Angels all in on him as well as the Mets.
Mark, you say it would be very hard for MLB to suspend Bauer without charges being filed by the D.A. There have been other instances where that has happened so I can’t agree with your statement. I’m very ambivalent about the whole Bauer situation but I think it’s absolutely ridiculous that both the D.A. and Manfred haven’t yet taken action. As they say, “sh*t or get off the pot.”
Excellent article in The Athletic by Evan Drellich today giving a complete look at Bruce Myer, the main negotiator for the players. Tony Clark has finally shown some wisdom and stepped aside to concentrate on other duties while putting someone into that spot who knows what he’s doing. No better endorsement for the guy than to say that Max Scherzer is a big fan.
I would be more shocked if it didn’t happen, but I believe Seager is signing this week….with whom I’m not sure, but I hope it’s with the Dodgers.