Can You See What Isn't… Before it is?
In no way do I think I have all the answers but do get lucky a lot. I think that it is because I do not think in the box or outside of the box. I prefer to think that there is no box! Three weeks ago, I fired our COO and VP of Operations. They were nice guys and I liked them…
In no way do I think I have all the answers but do get lucky a lot. I think that it is because I do not think in the box or outside of the box. I prefer to think that there is no box! Three weeks ago, I fired our COO and VP of Operations. They were nice guys and I liked them, but they had no vision. Every day was Ground Hog Day and when you do what you have always done… you get what you have always got. 2021 was the first year in a long-time where we only had single-digit growth. That was unacceptable to me. No excuses!
It turned out that just about every employee underneath them was underutilized and frustrated, and I moved my 23-year-old son to the COO position and spread out the rest of their duties to other lower-level managers. That then allowed me to hire the water industry’s best sales and marketing genius who also believes (like me) that we should be growing at 20% to 30% a year. The move was either bold or reckless. It was at a bad time because November and December are traditionally our best months, or maybe it was at a good time because the best thing you can do is if you have cancer is to immediately get it cut out!
So far, this is our best November ever! I don’t usually just see things as they are: I see what they can or will be. What does this have to do with baseball? It turns out that it has a lot to do with baseball. I am going to give you two examples of how it might (again, I do not have the market cornered on being right).
#1 – Trevor Bauer will be Suspended by MLB for 2022 –
If you are living under a rock or read what the American Media writes, then you may believe this. I happen to think that the opposite is true. If Trevor Bauer is not charged with a crime, MLB has ZERO EVIDENCE to suspend him! ZERO, ZILCH, NADA! For the record, I am not a Trevor Bauer fan (I am not on Twitter and do not care about his opinions). He is somewhat of a Jerk… in my opinion, but he is a damn good pitcher. In case you have no clue… he would not be the first player to be a jerk!
At any rate, since this is the year the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires, if you think the MLBPA is going to allow Trevor Bauer to be suspended when he has not even been found guilty of a crime, then you are dumber than a bag of hammers! Robber Manfred is walking a tightrope and no MLBPA member wants to be put in a position where the Grand PooBah of Baseball can suspend him without any evidence. If you tell me that there is evidence, go back to the bag of hammers. This is going to be a contentious negotiation and the MLBPA and MLB do not need this to muddy the waters.
In case, you cannot understand plain English: If Trevor Bauer is not indicted, he will pitch in the MLB in 2022. Whether it will be with the Dodgers, I cannot predict, but I would guess so. If he is charged… all bets are off! He’s out… probably for good! Many of you have been relying on the media for information, and that makes me sad. Most of those idiots have no clue. Zero!
This is not China. We have Due Process. We have the Constitution. We have a Bill of Rights. Yeah, I know some of you want Socialism, but it’s not here… yet! If Robber Manfred tries to suspend Bauer absent an indictment, there will certainly be an MLBPA Strike… and rightfully so! Write down Trevor Bauers’ name into the rotation next year… unless he is indicted and that appears to be a non-starter!
#2 Will Smith is the Best Catcher in the NL AND WILL MOVE POSITIONS
I happen to agree with that. I said exactly that the other day. Will Smith is the best catcher in the NL. Hands down! He is a great hitter… who will only get better while being a slightly above-average catcher. Will Smith is not a big guy. Catching wears on him. If he played a less taxing position, he would likely be an even better hitter. Most of the Dodgers’ pitchers prefer to throw to Austin Barnes. There is a reason for that. Will Smith is better at blocking pitches than Yasmani Grandal, but he ain’t great.
Will Smith is quick. He is an above-average runner and he is very athletic. He has played 3B and I am sure he could play 2B as well. He might also be an all-star at either position. It made sense to to move him when the Dodgers had Kaybear, as Ruiz only profiled as a catcher, but now that Ruiz is gone, it makes no sense to move Smith just to move him. However, there is a certain twenty-yea-old who is 6′ 3″ and 220 pounds who is often compared to Salvador Perez because of his size and profile, Cartaya moves well behind the plate and has the soft hands to become at least a solid receiver. He also has the plus arm strength and throwing accuracy to control the running game. He earns kudos for his maturity and already shows promise with his game-calling and leadership.
Diego is likely two years away, but he is showing signs of being a generational find. Even though he has only 80 minor league games, he has looked like a man among men. This brings me to my main point: You move Will Smith if you can replace him with an equal or better skill set and he can blossom at another position. It’s a two-for-one-deal. You don’t trade either player – you find place for them both and if Cartaya keeps progressing, he will be a better defensive catcher in 2 years (IMHO).
Other Dodger Players
I could be wrong about both players, but the conventional wisdom is frequently wrong. I choose the other side. There is no box. There may be other players who switch positions, depending upon who the Dodgers sign this offseason. I really want to see what Edwin Rios and do at 3B as he platoons with Justin Turner who will also DH. As DC mentioned yesterday, the Dodgers have several players who are progressing through the farm system – some will be traded, others will be role plers and a few will become stars. Cartaya, Busch, and Vargas are of that ilk and Pages is not far behind. Bobby Miller has the tools of an Ace.
Who plays where depends upon whether Corey Seager re-signs and then what happens with Trea Turner after 2022. It’s possible they Dodgers will retain both, one or neither. Some fans can only see what is. It is very difficult… even impossible for some fans to see what a prospect can evolve into. Of course, this is not an exact science and it is a fact that most prospects do not make it, however with great development methods and facilities, a team has a better chance at player development, and the Dodgers have spent prodigious amounts on player development. Hopefully, it will continue to pay off.
AJ Pollock has a Player Option for 2023 for at least $10,000,000 (it could be more) that at age 35, I believe he will exercise. It’s also my opinion that there is a lot to be decided before Gavin Lux is annointed an infielder again. Not saying he won’t be – it is just that there is growing interest with him as an outfielder.
Mike Busch is starting to look like a polished hitter and even though he has made progress at 2B with the glove, I do not see him as a MLB 2B. Certainly a DH… maybe a 1B, but I have never seen him there. HIs buddy, Kody Hoese has been slowed by his slow bat. The Dodgers felt it necessary to completely overhaul Kody’s swing to speed up his bat. He is very athletic, so there is a solid chance of success here, but I have heard that it was/is a “complete overhaul!” That is going to take some time.
Miguel Vargas is already a polished hitter and if he starts at AAA next year, which he likley will, he could move very quickly. Andy Pages will likely start at AA next year, and he could also move quickly. My darkhorse is ex-fatboy Brandon Lewis, who has lost over 60 pounds but retained his light-tower power. He’s best suited to 1B, where he could be a plus defender. He could also be on a fast track.
Leonard and Vivas are liely a couple of years away, but Lionel Valera could be a little ahead of them and Jacob Amaya will lmost certainly see The Show in 2022. Alex De Jesus could move fast too. Still 19, I would not be surprised to see him in 2023. James Outman will likely have a cup of coffee in 2022. Carson Taylor may be ready to take over for Austin Barnes after his contract runs out in 2022.
Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, Andre Jackson, and Landon Knack might be counted upon somewhat is 2022. Of course, some will stall, some will go backwards and some will move forward. This is the fun of watching the youngsters progress through the system. 2022 will be an eventful year, but I have a feeling we are getting ready for a wild ride with the CBA!
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Discussion (215)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Now Clayton might have to seriously consider the Rangers. Before the past couple of days it was a non starter.
I couldn’t see Corey living in places like Philly, Boston or even New York, but Dallas suits his personality perfectly. And we need to remember, most of us thought he was gone the minute we traded for Trea.
Seager 10/324 to Texas.
Go get your cash my man; I can’t hate on you for that. Thanks for the Ring
10 years $325MM for Seager from Texas.
Bye Bye Corey!
What exactly did Ozuna do in comparison to what Bauer is accused of?
This from Ken Rosenthal:
“MLB announces discipline for Marcell Ozuna under its domestic-violence policy, an unpaid 20-game suspension that includes all 20 regular-season games he served while on administrative leave from Sept. 10 to end of ‘21 season. So, he can return immediately at start of ‘22 season.”
Mariners signing Ray.
The Rays will probably use Kluber to start one of their bullpen games. The Dodgers could have done that. He should be good for 3 or 4 innings every 5th day as a starter. If lucky, he gives the Rays 5 innings.
I’m glad Scherzer moved on.
I’m okay if Kershaw retires.
I want Seager at shortstop next year and Lux at second base. Trade Trea for pitching or for a third baseman. In 2023 they can rotate Seager to third and Lux to SS and find a second baseman.
If Seager leaves, then obviously it will be Trea at short and hopefully Lux at second, JT at third, Muncy at 1st, arm permitting.
I am not going to worry too much if the rotation in 2022 uses a mix of Buehler, Urias, Heany, Gonsolin, White, Jackson, Miller, May.
Oddly, Kevin Goldstein just wrapped a wonderful chat.
What’s odd about that? Well, he actually touches on what Bear and I were discussing. The idea of attributing a $ per win metric.
Open on blogs.fangraphs.comhttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-11-29-2021/No problem Bluto. How many times have we ever agreed on anything? Scherzer is now a Met, so to me he is persona non grata. I am glad LA was not nuts enough to pay that much money for a guy his age. They got a better bargain out of him for a rental than they did from Darvish or Machado.
Glad the Mets and not the Dodgers are handing out that contract. That is a crazy deal for a soon to be 38 year old pitcher. I understand why the Mets feel the need to spend that kind of money on an aging pitcher, but the potential reward is not worth the risk for the Dodgers. There is simply better ways for the Dodgers to invest their money.
No doubt, the Dodgers could use another starting pitcher, but Dodger brass should feel no pressure to make a signing like that. If Bauer has not been convicted of a crime by now, it is becoming more likely he will be walking away with nothing more than a settlement and a tarnished name.
The court of public opinion has spoken, but the longer the legal system takes to lay judgement, the less this appears to be a clear cut case.
I forget who I’m stealing this from:
This is exactly what the other 29 owners were scared of when it was time to approve Cohen as Mets owner: old-school Steinbrenner.
Still tons of offseason to go, but in Cohen’s post-Matz tirade, this are the top three current payrolls:
Mets: $268M
Yankees: $215M
Dodgers: $206M
THIS WAS ABSOLUTELY THE RIGHT MOVE!
A non-move!
Deal for Max is supposedly done. Announced seconds ago on MLBTR. 1/130. Good luck Max. Enjoy all the BS New York has to offer. And finishing second to the Braves.
Scherzer and Mets finalizing a 3/130 deal according to Jon Heyman.
That’s a lot of cash; glad we didn’t go there.
How would we feel if Kershaw retired, ala Posey?
I personally would be fine with it and would celebrate his tenure before moving on.
If the going rate for Scherzer is 4/40 AAV, then bye, Max. It would be a possibility if there was some sort of resolution on Bauer. If he is suspended without pay, then that’s money off the books you could have directed to Scherzer. If the Bauer situation is still in limbo, then no Max.
This is a problem for the Dodgers. I don’t think they can compete for a WS without that true difference-maker. The Dodgers were treading water until they picked him up last year. Sorry, Heaney ain’t gonna cut it. An aging, injured and declining Kershaw isn’t going to drag them over the line. Stroman? Whatever. He’s decent, but not enough to move the needle.
No one is arguing that Bauer ought to be convicted of a crime without a preponderance of evidence. If the threshold for conviction is not there, then he shouldn’t be charged – even though there is a possibility he did physically assault her.
The threshold for guilt in a criminal case is completely different than the MLB domestic abuse policy. Actually, there is a difference between the criminal and civil court system, since we’re bringing up OJ. He was notoriously acquitted in his criminal case, but lost his civil case against the Goldman family.
There is no stare decisis in baseball. They are free to make any personnel decisions they want, the only check being pushback from the player’s association. There is no jurisprudence involved.
If Bauer thinks he is suspended unfairly, he has legal recourse, and could potentially sue for the 20 million he stands to lose. If no charges are brought by the Pasadena DA, or if he’s even miraculously exonerated, then that will help his case, but it has no direct bearing on MLB’s decision to suspend him.
oh….another post of mine is in moderation jail again.
Mets have re-engaged Scherzer in contract talks. Dodgers reluctant to go beyond a 2 year deal and Boras is pushing for 4. At those prices, let them have him. I am more concerned with bringing back Seager, who is supposedly close to signing a new deal with no team given. Louis Avilan signed with the Nats and C Aramis Garcia has signed a deal with the Reds. At one time he was Posey’s back up in SF. Happy 94th birthday to Dodger legend, Vin Scully!
Dodgerpatch commented about Sam Dyson and how MLB suspended him for a year without him being charged with a crime. Consider this about that case:
1. Dyson admitted it;
2. Dyson entered a treatment program; and
3. Dyson agreed to the suspension.
The Dyson case sets no precedent for the Bauer case.
No stare decisis here!
Castellanos is seeking a 7-8 year deal. I doubt he gets that. No Scherzer or Seager news yet. Miami still in the outfielder market. Another story that the Reds have had trade talks about not only Gray, but Mahle and Castillo too. Hey, send Castillo to LA.
I just read through the comments here about Trevor Bauer and frankly, I am appalled! I am appalled that you believe an allegation is evidence. EVERY SINGLE THING we have read about the case against Trevor Bauer is an accusation. EVERYTHING.
At this juncture, any evidence he has should only be presented in a court of law. He is under no obligation to deny anything in the court of public opinion… nor should he. You have not heard his side of the story and yet many of you think you know things.
You don’t know Jack $hit! Neither do I. You are assuming… I assume nothing!
Maybe he is guilty of everything. Maybe he is guilty of nothing, but I find it very unsettling that many of you are quick to convict without evidence. “But he punched the woman.” That’s an accusation… not a fact.
I am appalled beyond belief that many of you have already convicted him.
The cases are entirely different, but when I predicted OJ Simpson would not be convicted, some ex-friends wanted to fight me. One refused to talk to me for 14 years until he finally apologized. In your haste to convict you have lost track of what are “facts” and what are simply “allegations.” This is not China!
Going into the offseason, I did not expect Max Scherzer to sign with the Dodgers. I did expect Seager to do so. I also expected Clayton to retire. I have not been wrong… yet!
Just to be clear, I am not a Bauer fan. However, I am a fan of Due Process! All we have are accusations. Give Due Process a chance and THEN form an opinion.
I’m hoping Steve Cohen will bankrupt himself. Maybe he’ll take Bauer in a trade? I suspect they’re temperamentally well matched.
Thanks to AC for having the courage of his convictions and the patience to maintain them. I very much appreciate his comments, especially concerning Trevor Bauer. Jeff, you are not alone!
And hooray for Lincoln Riley! Welcome to my alma mater.
Bear, you were complaining that Hill doesn’t pitch enough innings.
Just for the record, he pitched more innings than Kershaw last year and only 20 fewer than Scherzer.
True, Greinke hasn’t pitched all that well, but that sparkling personality is just too much to resist.
I’m sure I’m going to hear it from some stupid Met fans here in NY, but frankly I’m more than a little happy that the Dodgers didn’t bite. Something tells me that they can put their money to better use. And reports that Scherzer is 37 are true, but not completely so. He’s 37 today, but will turn 38 in July.
I am more than a little confidant that AF can put $120 million (or less) to better use, and in multiple places.
Ya gotta love it. Twitter goes absolutely ape shit over stuff like this. Oh no Andrew, say it ain’t so! Dodgers will be scared of the Mets if Scherzer signs there. All sorts of wacko’s coming out of the wood work. Only reason I go there is because Heyman, Passan and Rosenthal usually post the breaking stories there. Found out about the Scherzer trade to LA that way.