Yeah, Follow Them Over the Cliff That s the Ticket!

I have mixed feelings about the Nick Punto deal. I was driving back from Morro Bay, listening to MLB radio when Jim Bowden broke the news. It kept filtering out over the next 90 minutes with Adrian Gonzales the first name that dropped, Josh Beckett the second then Carl Crawford. Then finally Punto and the players going back. It put a stamp on the end of the Frank McCourt era.

All that being said, I wouldn’t have done it, too many bad contracts and not enough money coming back from Boston. Ned Colletti tried to help them get a better deal, but the new ownership just wanted a deal that made a statement, they weren’t concerned about the particulars.

The deal bailed Boston out, specifically the Beckett and Crawford contracts. It also made Dodger fans feel better. What the new ownership really wanted was Gonzo and as they looked around there were no first baseman available through free agency, trade or the minor league system. I would have stayed with James Loney.

Taking on bad money seemed to be the Dodger approach to get what they wanted, the latest the Homer Bailey contract. Hopefully, that’s over, because bad international signings and those kind of deals have weighed down the team.

According to Alana Rizzo, AF has 12 potential deals in the works, including free agents and the Dodgers are in on all major free agents.

It would seem that Gerrit Cole has sailed away and it seems like a Yankee/Angel battle. They are still in on Anthony Rendon, but Ken Rosenthal said the Dodgers aren’t focused on him because Friedman has multiple things in play.

So, at this point, the Dodgers may not walk away with any of the top three and that will generate another Bill Plaschke column and no doubt a lot of angst among fans.

Maybe the Dodgers end up with Rendon, the right hand bat, but I’m really okay if they bring back Ryu and add to the bullpen. Friedman said he’s pursuing another closer type so that would help. Cole could be a difference maker, but that contract could end up as a massive anchor.

Not sure who pointed this out the other day, but the contracts are going up faster than the tax threshold so at some point this could make life miserable for a team trying to stay competitive over the long haul.

In the future, the Dodgers will need to spend big money to retain their key players like Cody Bellinger, Cory Seager and Walker Buehler, just as they did to keep Clayton Kershaw. Even Scott Boras said that he expects Bellinger to be a Dodger for a long time.

At that stage, I think you will see the Dodgers write the big contracts because they can and they won’t be anchored down with a lot other bad free agent contracts.

One funny thing, when Colletti was asked about the Stephen Strasburg deal, if he would have done, “Uh, no.” He laughed. I wouldn’t have either.

In general, I agree with what you are writing. Going into the off-season, I had no clue what Drew Pomeranz or Zach Wheeler would sign for. I like both players. They are not elite, but they could be difference makers on the right team. IMO both the Padres and Phillies are flawed teams with flawed ownership/GMs. They overpaid for both players.

The Lerner family caught lightening in a bottle last year. Good for them. But that does not mean that they are a model for a sports team finance that everyone should emulate. Signing Stephen Strasburg for 7 years $245MM smells more like Scott Boras going directly to Ted Lerner (not Mark Lerner) to get the deal done. There is no way that any team was going to approach that level of a contract. So spending money just to spend money is now the right approach because gas is no longer 10 cents a gallon? There is still a fair market value that should dictate pricing. It does in every successful business model. $245MM for 7 years for a 31 year old pitcher, with a history of injuries, and two above average seasons is not prudent. I would say it was more irresponsible than prudent.

I give the credit for the success of the Nationals more to Mike Rizzo than to the largess of the Lerner family. It was as interim GM, when Rizzo drafted Stephen Strasburg in 2009. Then as a permanent GM, Rizzo followed the Strasburg draft with Bryce Harper in 2010, which was followed by Anthony Rendon in 2011. It was Rizzo who engineered the three team trade that brought Trea Turner and Joe Ross to Washington for Steven Souza and Travis Ott. It was Mike Rizzo that signed Max Scherzer, the one overpriced FA pitcher that has more than earned his contract. There have been far more Jordan Zimmerman’s than Max Scherzer’s; yes the same Jordan Zimmerman that Rizzo did not overpay when he became a FA. Rizzo signed a pair of Dominican OF in 2013 (Victor Robles) and 2015 (Juan Soto). It was Rizzo, after a disappointing 2016 season traded Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning for Adam Eaton who had injury filled 2017 and 2018 seasons, but was gold in 2019 WS when most needed. In the long term that may not turn out to be a great trade, but for 2019 I think Rizzo will take it.

In 1974, I bought my first house in Reseda, CA for $25,000. I have no idea what that house would be appraised for today, but it is fair to say that the fair market value is worth several hundred thousand dollars. But I would not pay $1MM for the house because some other moron would. That is lunacy. Stephen Strasburg is not worth 32 WAR for the next 7 years. But maybe he is to the Washington Nationals for what he did in 2019. Clayton Kershaw is not worth $31MM a year any longer, except as a Dodger. So some of that has to be taken into consideration.

I do not know what Andrew Friedman is going to do. There was a report that I read (I do not remember where), that said he is working on 10-12 different acquisitions. Obviously not all will come to fruition, and maybe none of them will. But I believe that AF is going to do what he believes is best for LAD for 2020 and beyond.

Where I do not agree with AF and possibly Mark, is that I do believe that AF has to do something to shake this team up. There is something missing, and IMO to stay stagnant is not the right approach. 2020 should be an exciting year for the Dodgers with the AS Game coming to LA for the first time in 30 years, and only the 2nd time at Dodger Stadium. AF and the owners should go all out to make it a memorable year for the Dodgers. If that is an overpay for Anthony Rendon (not an obscene overpay), then that should be considered. If that means trading from a surplus of pitching prospects to improve the 2020 team with a trade, then that should be considered.

Yes, NYY will overspend irrationally and irresponsibly to sign Gerrit Cole. But as I wrote yesterday, I would not be fearful going into a 7 game series with Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, Maeda, Stripling, and Gonsolin against Cole, Severino, Tanaka, Paxton, Happ, German. Plus I believe with every fiber of my being that AF will do whatever he can to slot a pitcher between Buehler and Kershaw. Plus, I fervently believe that an angry and embarrassed Kershaw will be a CY candidate in 2020.

Update above…

I view the meetings with the mindset of Low Expectations= No Disappointments. If a good deal does pop up and surprise me, all the better.

This article makes more sense than anything else I’ve read. Come on into the office, we’ll create a position for you!

From a business and culture standpoint, I still understand the Punto trade. Gonzalez was needed, not just to better the team, but to re-energize the Latino fan base. That worked.

The Dodgers “overpaid” for Zack Greinke. At the time it seemed like “crazy money”, yet it worked out well. I would do that deal again. Though I would not have paid him what the Diamondbacks did. Why? Probably because of his age.

Would I overpay for Cole. Probably. We just need to define “crazy money” versus “wise money.” Unfortunately, we generally can’t adequately make that determination until after the risk has been taken.

I still stand wit AC – let’s go BOLD!

AC and 2demeter, what is your idea of bold and stupid money for Cole or Rendon?

I did not like the Punto trade but if Boston is hell bent to reduce payroll and move a pitcher like Price, there is opportunity to repeat the Punto trade to get Betts.The disaster of a trade that freed money for Boston in a Price and Betts trade would be for Boston to use that savings to sign Betts as a free agent one year later. Maybe it will be the Yankees that make the Punto trade this time.

DodgerMom, lol to your coal vs Cole in your Christmas stocking.

The quote from AF about having 10-12 scenarios he was working on came from an interview he did at the meetings. Obviously they won’t all come to fruition but he could have some interesting stuff up his sleeve and I’m thinking more trade related than free agent related.

Saw Craig Counsell interviewed yesterday and he was asked about Hader. He gave the expected answer about how great he is and how he hopes to have him for many more years but there was something about the way he said it that made me feel Hader is very much in play. He would come at a great cost, but I’m wondering if that isn’t one of the potential deals Friedman was referring to. Andrew said as of now Kenley is the closer but that he needs to get him some help. Hader probably wouldn’t be the official closer if we got him. One can always dream.

Wow the highlight of my morning was meeting up with Sherman and Peabody in the Way-Back Machine and revisiting that John Baldry song. I had long forgotten that song and John Baldry.

Speaking of trips down memory lane, we are just a couple of weeks away from the 44th anniversary of Dodger pitcher Andy Messersmith and Expo Dave McNally winning their arbitration hearing and opening the door for free agency in MLB. Catfish Hunter went from a $100,000 a year guy to $3.75 million in one year. For years after I though that the escalation of spending couldn’t continue. But I’ve been wrong every year. With the caps on spending without paying luxury tax and the history of teams saddled with boat anchor deals (Pujols, Felix Hernandez, Cano) you would think that these long term deals would stop which than brings crys of collusion.

I’m all in for the Dodgers to play in this upper tier market until deals like Strasberg’s set the market price. As mentioned here, $245 million and 7 years for a 32 year old pitcher with a history is unbelievable. His mechanics have always been questioned since he was a young, sheltered pitcher. Without over explaining it, his arm is late in his delivery causing arm stress. After his major arm injury he was encouraged to change his mechanics and he refused reporting that this was how he pitched and he would continue until it was over, So far, that hasn’t happened….yet. I can’t help but envision a 39 year old Steven Strasberg, 35 million a year, not being a boat anchor of the Queen Mary. I’d love to be in on Cole for a lot of money but not for the years it might require. Deals that take players, especially pitchers into their late 30’s just don’t make sense in the long run.

Let the fanbase bitch AF, but stick to what is sensible.

All these posters talking about sensible. Why do you care what is sensible when it is not your money and the owners in most cases, if not all, can afford to pay through the nose for players. The fans come, the TV deals are struck, the advertisers get on board, and everyone is happy. Cheap Charlies get no love from me. Lebron was not cheap. 35 years old! What are you all talking about? None of you are in the position to do anything about how the teams are run, who they select, and what goes on in anyone’s mind. None of you know what AF is really thinking or how much control he has at all. Should the Dodgers really be afraid of the dope fiend move? Maybe AF really is afraid and he gets cold feet.

Everyone thought the Wheeler deal was over the top. Stras said “Hold my beer!”.

I didn’t think the Wheeler deal was crazy, I just thought that payroll was rising after seeing the Smith and Pomeranz deals. The Stras deal was freaking crazy, easy pass on that one.

Now that Stras got his deal, someone is holding Cole’s beer. He will exceed Stras in AAV, Length of Contract and total value. I’m not sure I would want to give Stras’ contract to Cole. We missed out on Wheeler, but his wife says he’s an East Coast guy, so we were never really in it to begin with.

Rendon is the guy I really want and he opens up options for trades. But, I still maintain we can still do well to “Settle” for Ryu and Donaldson and trade for some of AC’s relief targets. As far as the 10-12 impact targets that AF is looking into, he’s obviously playing 3D chess and everyone else is playing checkers, because most can’t even begin to speculate on a list of targets that long. He’s a creative thinker, so we’ll all be surprised if he comes up with one of those. Or, he’s FOS and we’ll have what we have now, plus some new gimmick pieces like the lefty that throws a big fastball, but has no command much less control.

High hopes in October turn to bitter truths in December. What a sad off-season so far.

I’m in meetings all day for a couple of days in an out of town, work event, so I don’t have as much time to argue with everyone, so enjoy!

It’s really pretty simple: A very rich person or rich people buy a baseball team. What are their goals? They love the ego aspects, being important, getting coverage. They love the idea of competing for titles with other people in their economic stratum. They love the franchise they bought, its history, and really want to bring titles to the fans of that city. For different owners, different motives apply. That’s just the nature of big-time professional sports now. It is immensely expensive to buy into, but there is a lot of money to be made, and a lot of prestige to be won.

A fandom is at the mercy of the owners. The owners’ goals may not dovetail with those of the fans, though the former will always advertise that they do., for the sake of public relations. I don’t have the slightest interest in the personal lifestyles of Walter, Kasten or Friedman, how much money they make or have. Just like they have no interest in any of our finances. I want them to commit to building the best possible teams, within what are obviously some financial limits, but less limits than many other franchises have. I don’t thrill to them saving money, or making record profits. I don’t own one share of the Dodgers, and I don’t worry about their luxury tax. If you want to own a franchise in Los Angeles, whether you are the billionaire Kronke who owns the Rams, or the billionaire Ballmer who owns the Clippers, you have to be prepared to spend big, and look like you are doing everything you reasonably can to win championships.

The idea that there are all these other franchises being stupid by bidding for the top free agents, while our Dodgers owners are prudent and frugal, is vastly irritating to me. I don’t think Cashman is stupid, and I believe that he presided over five world titles in New York. Why is he then going all out for Cole while we are once again apparently out of the bidding? Why is Arte Moreno bidding high? He is not a great owner, but he does have the one World Series championship, and he did pay enormously for Mike Trout, the best player in the game, and for Otani, as well as Pujols and now maybe Cole. We have not paid enormously for anybody, since the moves to acquire the Red Sox players, and then Greinke, which Stan Kasten essentially admitted were necessities to secure the TV deal with Time Warner. So obviously going big in this way is not what we do under this ownership, just like Kasten never did but once at Atlanta.

The one thing we may get that other franchises may not, is consistency in being a contender. Less boom and bust. That leads to the oft-asked question as to whether a fan would rather have his/her team win three titles i ten years and not be very good in the other seven (the Giants), or win no titles in ten years, but win a lot of divisions and make the playoffs (the Dodgers). The Dodgers ownership clearly prefers the second one, because that insures the most profits each year. The Dodgers’ goal is to be competitive, make the playoffs a lot, and maybe one year things will break exactly right, and we will win our one title, as Kasten did in his fifteen or so years in Atlanta. The Yankees’ goal is to build up rosters, try to get the best players for every position, win several of the bidding wars, and then win a bunch of titles in a ten-year period, as i their glory days, and then the Steinbrenner/Torre era, where they got five, while we got none.

If we never go all out for a top free agent, we lose one of the key avenues to winning titles. You can do it without going that route, but that requires great drafts and brilliant trades. We don’t make the latter, so we are left with the drafting part as our only legitimate ticket to a title. The main problem with that, is that unless your drafting has been absolutely superb, the other teams will supplement their rosters with ta proven star free agent or two, while you are counting on development of players. Put another way, would you want to count on Bellinger and Muncy and Seager and Pederson hitting Cole in the World Series; and would you expect Buehler, Ryu, Urias, May,, and crucially, “our closer,” Jansen, and the rest of our usual Dodgers bullpen,, to get the likes of Judge, Stanton, LeMahieu, Torres out enough times? That, or its equivalent, is what the Dodgers have to face each year in their supposed quest to win a title. When you don’t win one title in 31 years with various owners, it is not coincidence or bad luck, there is a reason for it.

Last year the Players Union complained about the slow free agent signings and suggested collusion. We have a new Agreement coming and maybe owners want to be in the best position to own public / customer / fan support. Maybe the early and large signings are part of the owners strategy for getting a new Agreement instead of a strike.

Cole may be getting stupid money but he’s the only real ace coming to the free agent market in next 3-4 years. And I say he would bring at least 2 titles during his contract to either Yanks or Dodgers whoever signs him. And it won’t be the Dodgers. Would he be worth 2 titles to you saying the Dodgers go 0-7 next 7 years without him?

Most of the trades I toss out are not ones I would actually make. Typically I prefer to stay with what we have unless the only reason to watch the Dodgers was in hopes Isturiz and Cora might might make a great play for otherwise the team was boring.

I don’t think the Dodgers are missing a Gibson type player. That team only won 88 games. Win 106 and there is no way for me to think they would have been better with a Gibson. Now, maybe after two WS losses and an early exit it could be harder for this team to push as hard four years in a row. Sooooooo…..

Trade Seager and Muncy for Lindor and Kluber, sign Rendon, and trade Pollock and Baez for Diaz. That changes the team but fans lose two of their favorites. Maybe Lindor would be easier to extend than Seager. In any case, the Dodgers minor league system would still be intact and they stay under the penalty.

Have fun with this but I dont think they will get either one lol, they dont like to pay people for x amount of years, were stuck again I think

Bum I like the idea of adding two right-handed bats , but only if we can resign Lindor.

As far as Kershaw learning a change up, he talks about this on Stripling’s podcast (The Big Swing).

He says that he has tried to learn it for years. Tries a few in every bullpen session and they just don’t work.

He is NEVER going to learn a change up. That ship has sailed.

MLB Trade Rumors reports Scott Boras as saying that Rendon is going to get 7 years.

I don’t see any free agents other than Ryu happening now for the Dodgers. The Nats really threw a big wrench in the free agent wheel with that ridiculous Strausburg contract. I agree with AC, if the Dodgers are still in on Rendon though, 7/250 should be max and that’s stretching it. Tops for me on Ryu would be 3/60.

Kevin Gausman – – SF Giants 1 year – Guaranteed $9MM with bonus incentives for starts.

Giants acquire Zach Cozart and his $12.67MM AAV along with 2019 1st round pick SS Will Wilson (15th overall) from NC State. Looks like LAA had to include Wilson to dump Cpzart salary.

$21.67MM AAV for Cozart and Gausman who apparently wants to continue to start. Gausman not a whole lot less than his expected arbitration.

Didi Gregorius – 1 year Philadelphia

Sure rooting for Angels over Yankees for Cole! Best scenario for Dodgers.