I Refuse To Yield To No Team
All off-season I have hoped the Dodgers would go BOLD. Of course I was disappointed. I thought this would be the year. But unlike some here, I am not about to concede the WS to NYY (or LAA) this year or any time in the future. NYY CBT is already at $245,341,667 with holes still to fill. $2.5MM more in spending and they exceed the top penalty. The tax is
All off-season I have hoped the Dodgers would go BOLD. Of course I was disappointed. I thought this would be the year. But unlike some here, I am not about to concede the WS to NYY (or LAA) this year or any time in the future. NYY CBT is already at $245,341,667 with holes still to fill. $2.5MM more in spending and they exceed the top penalty. The tax is one thing (they can afford it), but they will also lose 10 spots in their Round 1 draft in 2021.
They are still expected to sign Brett Gardner to play CF. They will not be comfortable going into the season with Aaron Hicks as their CF. Neither Frazier or Tauchman are CF.
Gleyber Torres is a 2B, not a SS. He can play SS, but he is a 2B playing SS, because Didi will now be playing for Philly.
Can Gio Urshela duplicate last year? He never has before. Maybe he is a late-bloomer, but maybe 2019 was an aberration.
Can DJLM duplicate last year? I like DJLM, but it will be extremely difficult for him to duplicate what he did in 2019.
Their backup catcher makes Austin Barnes look like JT Realmuto. Kyle Higashioka will be 30. He is a AAAA player who has bounced up and down for the last three years. In 146 AB, his career stats are .164/.212/.336/.547. He is the only other catcher on the 40 man.
Who is going to play 1B; Luke Voit or Miguel Andujar? NYY is not comfortable with either one at 1B, which is why DJLM was playing 1B at the end of the year when Didi came back.
Giancarlo Stanton is a DH playing LF. I am not going to downgrade his impact with the bat. He can hit 50 HRs, but he will also K 200 times.
Starting Pitchers – Cole, Severino, Tanaka, Paxton, German (??) – Happ, Montgomery, Loaisiga. If I am AF or Doc, that does not scare me. I guess it does a lot of you.
Severino – Has rotator cuff problems that kept him out all 2019. What is the likelihood he will get back to Ace status?
Tanaka – His arm has to be falling off. He pitched 7 years in Japan before coming to the US. 1,315 IP in those 7 years. In his 6 years with NYY, he has pitched an additional 1,006 innings. His metrics continue to drop.
German – I am not sure when his Administrative Leave for Domestic Violence is complete. He was out 6 games for the regular season, and all 9 playoff games. There will undoubtedly be additional games in his suspension, but it is unknown how many. He may have been 18-4, but his ERA was north of 4.00. He was never an 18-4 pitcher before 2019.
Happ – They are trying to unload Happ and his $17MM contract. So far, no takers. If any MLB team trades for Happ they better get Deivi Garcia also in return. Why would any MLB team do NYY a favor by taking that contract off their books?
In 2021 – They will be losing $85.25MM in contracts, leaving them initially $74.783MM shy of the 2021 CBT threshold. That will be spent. Considering that the 8 players with arbitration in 2020 are projected to make $21.35MM in 2020, it is realistic to anticipate that those 8 players could make 150% of that amount or $32MM in 2021. There will be 6 more in arbitration for the first time including Gleyber Torres, Domingo German, and Luke Voit. Let’s project them to be at $10MM. That will leave NYY about $33MM to replace two starting pitchers (Tanaka and Paxton), DJLM, and still needing a SS, CF, and backup catcher.
Many are already projecting that Aaron Judge will not be signed by NYY once he hits FA. No financial room, and he will be 31.
So no, I am not conceding 2020 to NYY or 2021….NYY had more holes than did LAD, and they cannot fill them all this year, and there will be more next year (especially with starting pitching).
AF has extreme confidence in his development people to develop starting pitching. He has great confidence that Urias, May, Gonsolin, and Gray will all be upper rotation pitchers to join Buehler and Kershaw, while Stripling and Maeda are competent back end rotation if needed. NYY cannot claim the same confidence.
Cole – FA
Tanaka – International FA (developed in Japan)
Paxton – Trade
Happ – Trade and re-signed as a FA
Severino – Originally NYY international FA signing (agreed he was developed by NYY)
German – FA after trade with Miami
Montgomery – NYY 4th round 2014 – He is a Ross Stripling level pitcher.
They traded their top pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield) for Paxton. Do they have the same concern about developing Deivi Garcia? He could (should) be ready by 2021 if he continues to develop. Organizationally NYY has 7 players on their 40 man that they have signed and developed: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Tyler Wade, Mike Ford, Kyle Higashioka, Miguel Andujar. If they re-sign Gardner, he would be the 8th. They have 3 top 100 prospects, all 3 international free agents. Only two of their top 13 prospects are from Rule 4 Amateur Draft (June Draft); Clarke Schmidt (RHP – #5), and Anthony Volpe (SS #10).
NYY has decided that they cannot adequately develop their own prospects, so they have to trade and sign them as FA. The Dodgers trust their developmental people. If the Dodgers do not sign any significant FA or make any significant trades, their downside is:
Rely on Urias and May for the rotation. Not ideal, but certainly not a problem. Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, Maeda – Outside of Cole, I like the Dodgers rotation better overall.
Lux will be the everyday 2B. Minor League Player of the Year. I can live with that.
No change in JT, Seager, and Muncy – I will match that infield with NYY and feel confident that LAD is better.
No change in OF. Verdugo/Belli/Joc-Pollock vs. Tauchman, Gardner (or Hicks), Judge. I consider Stanton more of a DH than a LF. I take Belli over Judge, and I take Verdugo over Gardner (Hicks). Maybe I have my rose colored glasses on, but Joc/Pollock is clearly better than Tauchman, but I would prefer that platoon to Stanton when he is periodically playing LF.
C – Sanchez over Smith, but NYY does not have a backup catcher. I like Smith and Barnes over Sanchez and Higashioka. If NYY gets a competent backup catcher, they would have the advantage. Until Ruiz is called up. There is the difference. The Dodgers can call on their farm and NYY (or LAA) cannot.
Where NYY has a clear advantage and where LAD can make their biggest impact is in the bullpen. Throw all that ERA comparisons out for relief pitchers. I will take NYY’s bullpen over LAD all day. I do not expect LAD’s bullpen to be status quo. In fact, I think they have potentially significantly improved with the addition of Blake Treinen. He will not be the last. For those who want to dismiss Treinen as a legit late inning high leverage reliever, AF was pretty spot on with Joe Blanton and Brandon Morrow.
Maybe the Dodgers can trade Kike’ for Britton. No, it is not a fair trade. But NYY has to cut down on their payroll, and their strength is their bullpen. They could use Kike’, and they can replace Britton. That will save them about $8MM that they can use elsewhere. Or maybe LAD can pull a Cozart/Will Wilson type deal and acquire JA Happ and Deivi Garcia for cash considerations and/or a third tier lottery pick. Again not a fair trade, but NYY needs the threshold room. Why would any MLB want a fair deal in any trade with NYY?
2019 Astros playoff rotation – Verlander, Cole, Greinke is better than the projected NYY playoff rotation of Cole, Severino, Tanaka, and the Astros lost to a team the Dodgers should have beaten. Some have said that with a better offense NYY can make up for the talent difference in starting pitching. Wrong – NYY – 943 runs and a slash line of .267/.339/.490/.829, while Houston scored 23 less runs (920), but a superior slash line of .274/.352/.495/.848. As a team, Houston was better last year than NYY is projected for this year, and they lost.
The Dodgers can still improve before ST, be in a position to assess where they are at the trade deadline, and make any necessary changes. AF may be shy with high-priced FA, but he has not been shy at the trade deadline. So for all of you NYY worshipers, keep the admiration going. I won’t try to dissuade you. I believe the Dodgers have a team that can win. Can’t guarantee that they will, however, I will take my chances with the Dodgers roster next year.
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Discussion (163)
Disagree, not disagreeable
There has been plenty of predictions that the Dodgers would try to trade Pederson, Pollock, and Hernandez but if Friedman wants to add a plus plus righty bat that would add excitement and change the discussion about this off season, then it might be Verdugo that gets traded instead to land Betts. Just saying.
I am fine. I made the post invisible but it’s still there. AC can reactivate it in case of my demise. 😉
I am in route to the DR
Yankee backup C for 8 years, Austin Romine, signed by Tigers for $4M. He will compete for the starting job. I would have wanted him over Barnes, but that ship has now sailed.
Success is going to Dodger Stadium and not having to watch a team that sucks. The Giants won three WS a few years ago. So why are San Fran fans so miserable? Because they’re really bad and that’s not much fun. Memories fade, winning now becomes more important. The Dodgers will win a title or two, it’s inevitable.
Well it all depends on what you define as success. Seven straight divisional titles and averaging 95 wins a year or winning World Series. I don’t think Cubs or Red Sox would trade places with the Dodgers
I am quite amazed at some of the commentary. I mean seriously. I may not agree with all the decisions, but this is a very good ownership group and Andrew Friedman does an incredible job.
The payroll is one of the highest in baseball and the Dodgers won 108 games in 2019. They win every year. Seven straight NL West titles. Twice made the World Series. The talent level is off the charts and the farm system is able to sustain success over a lengthy period. The owners are spending big bucks on stadium improvements.
Yes, the Winter Meetings have ended, but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers are done. Trade talks are continuing. Pursuit of free agents continue. Ken Rosenthal believes the Dodgers will make a big trade. They have assets, but Rosenthal says Gavin Lux won’t be going anywhere even in a Lindor trade. The Dodgers have more than enough prospects/current roster players to make any deal they want.
The sky is not falling. As we go into spring training, the Dodgers will once again be considered one of the favorites to win a World Series.
Ever wonder why the Cubs have fallen on hard times after winning a series or why the Red Sox are having big payroll issues? The Dodgers are built to be one of the best teams in baseball in 2020 and still be on top in 2028. That takes a special kind of approach. That means exciting baseball every summer.
Enjoy this team and think back to how bad it was under Frank McCourt or when Kevin Malone was GM.
Well Mark since the last time the Dodgers won a WS the “greedy ones” have won 5 with another one on the way next year! As Gordon Gecko said, “greed is good”! I’m just tired of trying to get lucky to win a WS. With Cole we would have had the best team! How much longer does it take for you to get frustrated. 8 years, 10 years and then the window closes
I’ll put my two cents in the pot. In agreement with AC, Cole and Stras signed huge deals with the teams they wanted to play for without any kind of a discount. The Rendon thing is a head scratcher. Why would he choose the Angels over the Dodgers? Maybe he doesn’t like the different lineups every day. Maybe he’s seen Doc’s post season moves. Maybe he just hates Blue. Sometimes the top guys just don’t want to be a Dodger. I’m a Dodger die hard and I’m not overpaying to get one of those guys on my team. Like AC said, Cole took a lower AAV for one more year. He chose the Yankees.
Blake Treinen was the best closer in baseball a year ago. He’s worth taking a chance on. Betances is also worth taking a chance on, and I hope we get him as well. We have a lot of Major League talent and a deep farm system to deal from, so I have no problems going the trade route now. Reports are that they’re after impact guys in the trade market. Let’s see what happens now.
As far as the ticket prices narrative goes. They sold more tickets than anyone, so you raise prices. It has nothing to do with salary and only has to do with demand. If you want ticket prices to drop, stop going to the stadium. Send a message. But, that will only result in less revenue and less to spend on the guy that wants to come here.
These guys are not cheap. They’ve been at or near the top ever since they bought the team from the McCourts.
I’m really, really glad they got Treinen. I’m bummed it was only for a year.
The worst part is that because the Dodgers struck out with FAs, they will have to give up prospects and pay ludicrous salaries.
That said, Betances and Trienen are a nice pair of arms to add. Really nice.
I had no expectations about the offseason, so I am not disappointed.
I am a realist. Sports, even baseball is not life, but it parallels life.
The smart ones thrive.
The dope fiends and dumbasses crash and burn.
I say: Stay the Course and good things will come to you.
The Greedy are the ones who think they can beat the system. Case in point: The Yankees!
Watch and Learn, People!
The frustration of the Dodgers’ fan base isn’t that they haven’t been good – it’s that, in the opinion of many, that they need to get a difference maker of some sort if they expect to get over the hump and win the Series for the 1st time since 1988.
The Dodgers have enhanced this expectation by saying that they were going to be “very aggressive” this offseason and even Dave Roberts has predicted the most roster turnover since he has managed the team.
In the face of this, they were out-bid by the Yankees for Gerrit Cole and didn’t even make offers to Strasburg or Rendon.
They have signed a free agent reliever who lost the closer’s job with Oakland and had an ERA of 5 last year and a WHIP of over 1.6. So far, that’s it.
AC and others have said that the Dodgers need to “GO BOLD”. Thus far, it hasn’t happened. The offseason hasn’t ended yet and they may still do something noteworthy but it hasn’t happened thus far.
Sure the Dodgers should be good next season – they should win the Division easily. But I don’t believe that they win the World Series with the rotation or bullpen that they have right now. And since that’s the goal, I think that they should do more than they have to accomplish that.
I’m not too concerned about the offense – I would like to see them have a more balanced offense (not so lefty-dominated and not so homer dominated), but they should be very good.
They have to have a better 3rd starter than Maeda (who is it right now) and more reliable relievers than Wild Man Kelly et al.
I am not passing judgement now – I am willing to wait to see what happens between now and the start of the season. But I am disappointed that they haven’t done more up to this point. And I’m not alone.
Honeycutt retired. His knowledge and experience are certainly not easy to replace.
What do you guys all think about Honeycutt not being the pitching coach anymore?
Mostly lurk. But I can’t handle reading post after post wishing the Dodgers would be sold. As if the team had dream owners in the past. 15 years of Fox and “Parking-Lot” McCourt landed us all of THREE division titles. THREE IN 15 YEARS!! Current ownership has won the division SEVEN YEARS IN A ROW. Greedy Bastards! We failed to win the series twice. Which sucks. Really really sucks. Nobody thinks it sucks more than me. But you can’t just buy a WS. 162 games is a huge sample size. The teams with the best rosters will almost always win more than the teams that don’t have the best roster. The playoffs are a crap shoot. Give me 1000 rolls of the dice and my prediction of how many times snake eyes pops up will be incredibly accurate. Give me 10 rolls, not so much. 5 and 7 game series leave a massive amount up to chance. No FA signing guarantees you squat.
This ownership has made us highly competitive year after year, all while maintaining one of the deepest, most productive farm systems in baseball. Greedy Bastards! 15 years of previous ownership didn’t get us to ONE world series. Our current owners have got us to TWO. Greedy Bastards!
These days all too many Dodger fans remind me of a 16 year old who is pissed off about the Porsche daddy bought them for Christmas because they really had their heart set on a Lamborghini. Greedy bastard!
AC, thank you. Any word on Bill Haselman?
DODGERS ANNOUNCE 2020 MAJOR LEAGUE COACHING STAFF
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today announced their Major League coaches for the 2020 season with bench coach Bob Geren (fifth season), first base coach George Lombard (fifth season), hitting strategist Brant Brown (third season), third base coach Dino Ebel (second season), hitting coach Rob Van Scoyoc (second season), assistant hitting coach Aaron Bates (second season) and newly appointed pitching coach Mark Prior (third season) all returning with Josh Bard (bullpen coach), Connor McGuinness (assistant pitching coach) and Danny Lehmann (game planning and communications coach) all joining the 2020 staff.
Dave Roberts – Manager (fifth season)
Bob Geren – Bench Coach (fifth season)
Mark Prior – Pitching Coach (third season)
Josh Bard – Bullpen Coach (first season)
Robert Van Scoyoc – Hitting Coach (second season)
Brant Brown –Hitting Strategist (third season)
George Lombard – First Base Coach (fifth season)
Dino Ebel – Third Base Coach (second season)
Aaron Bates – Assistant Hitting Coach (second season)
Connor McGuinness – Assistant Pitching Coach (first season)
Danny Lehmann – Game Planning & Communications Coach (second season)
Bard, 41, returns to the Dodgers after spending the last two seasons with the New York Yankees as the Major League bench coach. The New York native began his non-playing career with the Dodgers as a special assistant to the general manager in 2013. He spent the next two seasons as a professional scout from 2014-2015 and was the Major League bullpen coach from 2016-2017. In 2017, he helped the Dodger relievers set a National League record with 637 strikeouts and led all National League bullpens in ERA (3.38), opponents’ batting average (.222) and K/9.0IP ratio (10.24). In two seasons with the Dodgers, the bullpen went 64-41 with a 3.36 ERA (430 ER/1150.1 IP) and 1270 strikeouts in 319 games. During his tenure as the Dodger bullpen coach, the relievers ranked second the Major Leagues in wins, second in saves (98), third in innings pitched, third in ERA and batting average against.
The former backstop played 10 years in the Majors with the Cleveland Indians (2002-05), Boston Red Sox (2006), San Diego Padres (2006-08), Washington Nationals (2009) and Seattle Mariners (2010-11). In 586 career Major League games, he hit .254 (452-for-1778) with 162 runs, 109 doubles, three triples, 39 homers and 220 RBI. He was originally selected by Colorado in the third round of the 1999 First-Year Player Draft out of Texas Tech University.
McGuinness, 30, is in his fourth year with the organization and his first year with the Major League staff. He joined the Dodgers in 2017 as the pitching coach for Single-A Great Lakes and worked the last two seasons in the same capacity for High-A Rancho Cucamonga. He joined the Dodgers after serving as a college pitching coach for NCAA D-III Catholic University (2016) and Emory University (2014-2015). In his tenure with the Emory Eagles, he helped lead the team to back-to-back NCAA DIII College World Series, finishing top five in 2015 and runner-up in 2014. He played four years for Emory, going 2-6 with a 6.75 ERA in 41 games for the Eagles, while earning his BA in Economics with a concentration in Finance.
Lehmann, 34, rejoins the Dodgers as the game planning and communications coach after serving in the same role in 2018. In 2019, he served as a special assistant to the club and served as an advance video scout for three seasons prior to working with the Major League staff in 2018. The former eighth round pick in the 2007 First Year Player Draft out of Rice University by the Minnesota Twins played in 365 minor league games and batted .229 with 47 doubles, four triples, eight homers and 85 RBI.
The Los Angeles Dodgers franchise, with six World Series championships and 23 National League pennants since its beginnings in Brooklyn in 1890, is committed to a tradition of pride and excellence. The Dodgers are dedicated to supporting a culture of winning baseball, providing a first-class, fan-friendly experience at Dodger Stadium, and building a strong partnership with the community. With the highest cumulative fan attendance in Major League Baseball history, and a record of breaking barriers, the Dodgers are one of the most cherished sports franchises in the world.
Visit the Dodgers online , follow them on Twitter @Dodgers and like them on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/Dodgers.
For media information, visit http://www.dodgerspressbox.com.
DBM,
Unless I forgot someone, the pitchers currently on the Dodgers who started out as position players are Kenley Jansen and Pedro Baez.
Kenley was a strong armed catcher with a weak bat. I forget the details, but if memory serves, he distinguished himself by throwing out a bunch of big leaguers in the 2008 World Baseball Classic. I believe the Dodgers converted him to a pitcher in 2009, and he was up with the Dodgers to stay in 2010.
Pedro Baez was a highly rated Dodgers third baseman who never clicked with the bat, but had a cannon arm at 3B. He made it up to the Dodgers soon after being converted to the mound. I forget what year that was.
I’m not a fan of Betances. He has poor control, not a great attribute in a late inning reliever. His career BB/9 is 4.0. Yeah, strikes out a lot of people but he allows baserunners. Plus he only pitched 1 inning last year.
He had shoulder and lat injuries, returned and tore his achilles tendon.
As long as the front office seems to be concentrating on relievers what would everyone here give up to get Hader? Arguably one of the three best relievers in baseball, but his homer rate went up dramatically last year. On the other hand, the ball was obviously juiced and hopefully MLB will do something about that for 2020. Also, Hader has thrown a tremendous number of innings over the past two years, but he’s still only 25. Lots of positives and negatives.
So……………………………………..what are we willing to give up to get him?
Delin Betances will be the next signing. I mentioned it yesterday and now I’ve seen reports that the Dodgers are after him.
Mark Walter’s ass needs to be held to the fire.
Rule 5 draft results are in. Cristian Santana and Jordan Sheffield are still Dodgers. The Astros lost three, the Cubs 2, and the Yankees, Nats, Rays, A’s, Blue Jays, and Padres one each.
I will be back on Tuesday. AC, DC, and 2D2 will try to help some of you to seek mental help.
Good Luck! I’m outta’ here….
The Dodgers are where some of the Yankee players were 2 or 3 years ago. No one knew for sure how good Andujar, Torres, Urshela (not sure he’s for real), Frazier, and Judge would be.
The Dodgers are sitting on Lux, Verdugo, Smith, Ruiz, and 4 or 5 young pitchers who look to be ready to step up: Urias, May, Gonsolin, Gray, et al.
I am fine if they do nothing more than sign Treinen.
All some of you see are the trees. I see the forest.
Some of you have a disease for which there is no cure: optic rectumitus… it gives you a crappy outlook!
My faith in this team has been destroyed. With Roberts dumb manager decisions. Friedman failing at the trade deadline. Lets not spend and lets not give up prospects. Buts lets raise ticket prices. Guggenheim, Friedman, and Walters failing to add a marquee free agent. Nobody wants to deal with them. Your supposed to excite fans with the product. No one wants to hear rich people whine about not being able to spend. Greed always wins.
When we don’t get Hader I was going to recommend to AF that we re-sign Yimi, but unfortunately he’s off the board, just signed with the Marlins. I guess we’ll just have to settle for Hader.