Let me start with the obvious. The Dodgers want to get under the Luxury Tax Threshold this season! Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has stated that there is no mandate to stay under the tax threshold Guggs & Company, but also noted, “there are benefits to doing it.” However, the Dodgers went over the luxury threshold in both 2021 and 2022, meaning if they go over again, they would be charged as third-time offenders. The penalties for going over three straight years or longer would be a 50% tax on every dollar spent over the $233 million threshold.
The Dodgers stayed out of the Insane Spending Spree this offseason, and they saw Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Tommy Kahnle, Chris Martin, Justin Turner, and Joey Gallo sign with other teams. To date, the Dodgers have only re-signed Clayton Kershaw, Shelby Miller, Jason Heyward, JD Martinez, and Noah Syndergaard.
The Dodgers were linked to lots of free agents, including Justin Verlander, Aaron Judge, and Dansby Swanson, but they did not make a big splash. They stayed out of the market, and they are only slightly above the Luxury Tax threshold at the present time. They paid over $32 million in LuxTax last year.
However, if the Dodgers drop below the tax threshold for one season, penalties are reset back to the first-time offender marks, which would be a 20% tax on all overages and 30% in a consecutive season. The last time the Dodgers were under the threshold was when they had a luxury tax number of $178 million during the 2020 season. Did that mean they had no chance of winning the World Series? Ha! The tax threshold that year was set at $208 million. They also dipped under it in 2018 after paying a record penalty in 2017 and going over the threshold every season for five years since 2013. Then, what did they do in 2019? They signed Mookie Betts!
A Dodger Beat Writer wrote last week that it did not appear that the Dodgers were set on getting below the Luxury Tax Threshold. So, you are telling me that the Dodgers just paid $32+ Million in LuxTax and spent very little money this offseason so that they could be Three or Four Million over the Threshold and pay even more next year and lose more in international signing money and draft positioning? That would mean that ownership is a bunch of dumbasses! A gullible, young reporter might believe that, but I don’t believe it for a second.
If the Dodgers can shed about $6 or $7 Million in salary, they can reset the Lux Tax and not have to pay a penalty net year (saving them $30-$50 Million) and sign some Free Agents with the money they save. If you think that $32 Million in Luxury Tax Penalties is “Chump Change,” you do not understand how people get rich and how they think. Here’s the thing: they do not mind paying for something they need and has value, but they do not like to spend money… just for the sake of spending money.
Now, here’s the caveat: I think the Dodgers will go into the season over the cap, but at some point in the season (before the Trade Deadline), they will make a trade to (1) Get below the LuxTax Threshold; and/or (2) acquire another MLB player (or two) with prospects while unloading a contract to get below the Penalty. If it looks like the Dodgers can win it all by the trade deadline, then they just might blow right on by the LuxTax and pay the piper. If it looks like they are in a sweet position, then it’s like Admiral Farragut said:
I have no doubt that if the Dodgers think they can win the World Series, then, at or before the deadline, you could see a Blockbuster Trade. Damn the Salary Cap – It’s only Money. But that will only happen if they see an opportunity to win it all. Otherwise, they will jetson some salary in a prospect-driven trade and reset the luxury tax penalty.
Coming out of the gate, I do not see Gavin Lux at SS. He does not have the arm strength to play the position, and after adding 15 pounds of muscle this offseason, he is going to move quicker and throw better? You are very gullible if you believe that! I love Gavin Lux at 2B – leave him there, and he will be All-Star Caliber! The Dodgers are much better defensively, with Lux at 2B and Rojas at SS, and for the record, I think Rojas will have his average year – .265 BA. We can live with that.
If the Dodgers are struggling at the Trade Deadline, then all hell could break loose. You could see a three or four-team trade whereby the Dodgers get Willy Adames or Tim Anderson (depending upon which teams are out of the race) and Byran Reynolds. It could involve trading Pepiot, Miller, Cartaya, Vivas or Leonard, Busch, and Pages. That’s a lot, but what if it helps you win a World Series? Look at this:
- Lux 2B (I want him at leadoff)
- Betts RF (He needs to put aside his fetish about hitting 1st)
- Freeman 1B (L-R-L, so far)
- Martinez DH (why hit him anywhere else?)
- Muncy 3B (35 HR/.265 BA/.900 OPS)
- Smith C (Nice bat at number 6?)
- Reynolds CF (not the best CF’er, but a huge upgrade)
- Anderson or Adames SS
- Vargas LF (has a #9 hitter ever hit .300?)
They could still stay under the Tax if they trade Taylor and Treinen (the cost is prospects). That is all conjecture, but it all could happen… or nothing could happen. Nothing is imminent, and as I have said in the past – Don’t look for much (if anything) to happen until the Trade Deadline. I will not be the least bit surprised if either the White Sox or Brewers are out of the playoff hunt by then (may both). But, first, there is a Spring Training to manage.
This year, Spring Training will be different as several players will be involved in the World Baseball Classic, which runs from March 8th to the 21st. Here’s a list of Dodgers who are poised to play in the WBC:
- Clayton Kershaw – Team USA
- Julio Urias – Team Mexico
- Victor Gonzalez – Team Mexico
- Miguel Rojas – TTeam Venezula
- Mookie Betts – Team USA
- Will Smith – Team USA
- Austin Barnes – Team Mexico
- Freddie Freeman – Team Canada
This will be different in that with Smith and Barnes absent, Diego Cartaya and Dalton Rushing will likely get a lot of playing time, along with Hunter Feduccia and Yeiner Fernandez. Busch, Vargas, Outman, and Pages will get lots of opportunities. Pepiot, Stone, and Miller are in the same boat. We will be watching Jason Heyward, Seven Duggar, and others. This is going to be a youthful and energetic Spring. Twenty days until Official Reporting.
MLB PIPELINE
The Dodgers have seven players on MLB’s TOP 100 List. Here’s a quote from Juan Toribio:
The Dodgers have had more regular-season success in the past decade than any other team in MLB. Over the past two seasons alone, Los Angeles has won 217 regular-season games.
Of course, the Dodgers now need to find a way to be successful in the postseason, an area they’ve struggled outside of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But everyone in the organization is quick to say they believe the best brand of Dodgers baseball is ahead of them and not behind.
That remains to be seen. Finding success isn’t as easy as the Dodgers have made it seem over the past decade, but that belief within the organization is fueled by the talent coming up through the Minor League system, which was highlighted again on Thursday with seven players in the Top 100 of MLB Pipeline’s latest prospect rankings.
The Dodgers had just two players on the list two seasons ago. That number increased to five last season. Now, only the Orioles (eight) have more players in the Top 100.
Here’s how MLB.com ranked the Dodgers:
#14 Diego Cartaya
#24 Bobby Miller
#37 Miguel Vargas
#54 Mike Busch
#56 Gavin Stone-Cold (“While ranked lower than Miller in the Top 100, some evaluators believe Stone is the best pitcher in the organization. Miller’s stuff is evident, but he still needs results in the upper levels of the Minors. Stone, on the other hand, is fresh off a season for which he earned the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year award.”)
#70 Ryan Pepiot
#61 Andy Pages
It’s a great time to be a Dodger Fan… EVER!
Discussion (17)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I was just looking at shortstops who have played in the major leagues at that position and he Farmer did for the Reds. And he is an exdodger so I just threw that out there as a infielder we could use. Just trying to see how we could get a shortstop and centerfielder from another team.
How about this trade in spring training? Byron Buxton and Kyle Farmer from Minnesota. That way the dodgers have a CF and Ss that have started in the majors. Now the Twins have Correa playing shortstop thats where Farmer was going to play and start. Buxton would bat leadoff then Betts hit second a one two punch then Freeman
But I say they do that in spring training so the infield of Muncy farmer lux and Freeman get used to playing together most of the time.
Anderson trade do the white Sox have any good outfielders? Now the Brewers do they have any outfielders if we get Adames. And with Reynolds it would be just him for four of our guys. If you get Anderson there’s got to be a starting outfielder with that trade. See goes with the Brewers. And I know the Pirates don’t have a great shortstop he is young. So I would say Anderson and a outfielder for prospects that the dodgers have.
Well, the Dodgers have made a lot of trades over the years (Darvish, Machado, Scherzer, Trea Turner, Hill, Hanley Rarmirez, Reddick etc.) and arguably only one, Mookie Betts made a difference in terms of the Dodgers winning a World Series.
All those trades and only one was a success if winning the World Series was the ultimate goal. So, I would be very hesitant in trading top prospects with expectations that somehow this or that trade will put you over the top. Chances are it won’t.
But if your goal is to improve the Dodgers long term or give the team a better oppportunity to win a series and the cost in prospects is not too high, then it might make sense.
Most of the trades the Dodgers have made during Friedman’s reign have come at minimal cost, but I would be very careful with the young pitchers that have been mentioned and it’s a definite no on Cartaya.
Dodgers Agree To Minor League Deals With Jordan Yamamoto, Dylan Covey
I’m with Tejon, plus the Dodgers, who have a reputation for being great at developing players, have seen a lot more Lux in the SS than all of us put together and if they think he can handle the SS I trust them.
Interesting interview on Chris Rose Rotation with Miguel Rojas. He is super happy to be back with the Dodgers and his role will be in the mix on all infield positions 1,2,3 and SS. He sees himself to help the prospects and has called Miguel Vargas and Cartaya. He feels the wrist surgery will be healed by spring training.
My take he is not expecting to start every day but fill in around the infield. This puts Lux at short with a long leash. Also puts Taylor in the outfield or traded.
I agree with you Mark on what the Dodger plan is for this year. I hope they do get under and stay under the CBT penalty next year. I however don’t want the Dodgers to trade for mid-career or late-career veterans that the Dodgers would have for less than 5 years.
So, no to Anderson, no to Adames, and no to Reynolds.
I am willing to live with Vargas, Busch, Outman, Miller, Stone, Pepiot, Cartaya, Rushing, etc unless some of them could be packaged for a player LIKE, let me repeat, LIKE, KC’s Bobby Witt Jr. KC needs quantity more than quality right now.
I think Lux will do well enough at shortstop.
I’m with Badger. Too early to pass judgment on Lux’s ability to play an effective shortstop. And if the Dodgers do open the season with him at short, then maybe their professional coaches also think Lux is capable of handling the position. No disrespect intended Mark, but I do trust their judgment over yours.
Right now none of us actually knows what AF and company is thinking. I prefer to wait and find out.
Also, wherever he plays, Lux has a history of hitting for power. The fact that he’s bulked up and also has accumulated more big league experience, leads me to believe that we’re going to see Lux generate considerably more power this year.
Badger,
I played SS up into my late 20s and then switched to 3B as I always had a great arm. I did play 2B for just one season, which was a whole lot easier than SS. The throws are absolutely much easier.
I have watched Lux play SS quite a bit, and it is just my opinion (and I hope that I am wrong) that he does not have the arm to do it in the Majors. I played SS in high school and in rec leagues, but there is no way I could have played it at higher levels, 3B? I was a Scotty Rolen Clone… about the same size too. Ha! 😉
If CT3 gets off to a great start, he is likely GONE!
I am going to attempt to diagnose Gavin Lux’s problem without all the evidence, but based on what my eyes see:
1. Due to a lack of arm strength, he rushes his throws and tends to “flip” the ball.
2. Rushing the throws leads to errors.
3. That leads to it getting into his head.
4. Once in his head, he develops the YIPS.
5. Once that happens, it affects his entire game.
Solution: Leave him at 2B and put a real SS there.
Vargas is allegedly working out with Dino Ebel at 2B, 3B, and LF. I am sure Hayward is helping him in the OF.
It makes a lot of sense to get below the LuxTax, and if they are just a few million short, I cannot see catapulting yourself to 50% and other sanctions.
Wait, where’s that Commie-hating Patch? Did he get sent off the island?
Mark, you keep saying Lux is no shortstop, that he doesn’t have the arm for it. Have you ever played those two up the middle positions? I have. Have you ever coached those two up the middle positions? I have. The throws are different. What I can tell you is second baseman most often field a ball considerably closer to first base than shortstops do. They most often have more time to get the ball to first base than shortstops do. What I’ve seen Lux do a lot of at second is a sidearm flip, which is a move just to get the ball there, not much on it. They are closer to first, no need to rifle the ball from 45’ away. Shortstops are several feet farther so they must throw the ball harder. Most throw overhand. Some don’t, but they do have to put more on the ball.
I’m stating the obvious here. I have not seen enough of Lux at short to know how good he is, or if he has a weak arm. I kinda doubt it. You may be right. But until I see more, I can’t pass judgment. Hopefully playing second hasn’t caused him to develop bad throwing mechanics, but it’s possible. If he is the starting shortstop, and Jeff thinks he is, I hope he’s taking 100 grounders a day with Chris Woodward working with him. I had Rojas starting. I thought that’s why we traded our top SS prospect for him. If he’s our utility guy, that tells me Taylor is history, and that will be the planned move that gets us under the cap.
I want to know where Vargas is taking infield these days. I can’t find anything on it. Is he at third, or is he in left field?
Agree Reynolds and Adames by the trade deadline. And yes would make them world series contenders.
Re the WBC. How much will the teams workout or will they just show up and play? Considering that the games are in AZ the players might not miss much of their own ST. Spring training workout today, drive to the field for a WBC game tomorrow, rejoin ST the next day?
I watched the top 10 SS on the shredder last night on MLB.TV. Trea Turner was rated # 1. Corey came in at # 4. Just like second base, no Dodger was in the top 10. But a couple of players who the fans have said should be trade targets were. Rosario, Anderson and Adames. I guess we will all have to wait and see just how it all plays out.
I have said for quite some time that they are not going to make any kind of major move until they see what they have, and where the need might be. During spring a lot can happen and often does. Many years ago, Pedro Guererro went down close to the end of spring with a broken leg that turned the entire year upside down. Wasn’t Turner hit on the wrist a few seasons ago and missed about 5 weeks at the beginning of the year? Who knows, Heyward might find his bat again and be a monster. He has the talent. Trayce Thompson has a ton of athleticism; he could very well be a much better player than he was last season. Most everyone is expecting Vargas to hit. I am simply hoping they are right. This will be a much different spring training with the WBC being played. I just want the team to come out of the whole thing healthy and ready for opening day.
Reynolds and Adames or Anderson? That’s a lot of capital to give up for both. And with Urias, Kersh and Thor all possibly gone next year and Buehler a big ?, I think they may want to hang onto all that young controllable pitching.