Trea Turner is Going to Cost a Lot
A lot of Dodger fans have postulated that the Dodgers should “ just extend Trea Turner ” right about now, like “ just push a button, ” and he will be extended. If it were only that simple. I think that right about now, Trea Turner is the best SS in baseball. The Rangers signed…
A lot of Dodger fans have postulated that the Dodgers should “just extend Trea Turner” right about now, like “just push a button,” and he will be extended. If it were only that simple. I think that right about now, Trea Turner is the best SS in baseball. The Rangers signed Corey Seager for ten years at $325 Million, and the Mets signed Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341 Million. Trea Turner is better than either of those players. Trea Turner is going to get paid a lot more than either Seager or Lindor!
California has a higher tax rate than Texas (by far). I am not an accountant, but I heard that Seager would have had to make about $375 Million from the Dodgers to equal what he makes from the Rangers. Maybe Jeff Dominique can figure that out… oh wait, he’s not here anymore! You can call it greedy, but that is real money. If someone is offering it, someone should take it.
Based upon what Lindor and Seager made, if Trea Turner signs with the Dodgers, it will have to be for ten years and close to $400 million to be equal to (actually slightly better) than Seager or Lindor. Now, for all we know, Turner wants to go back to the East Coast. Actually, that is heavily rumored. The Phillies, Nats, Marlins, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, et al., could be involved. The Dodgers, however, could “front load” a deal with an “opt-out” after three years.
What I mean by that is to sign him to a 10-year $400 Million Dollar Deal, but pay him $150 million in the first three years and let him opt out after three years. Maybe he takes that and moves back to Florida. The Rays and Marlins would both benefit from him… but would they really do it? However, there are other options. I am not convinced that Gavin Lux can play SS – I am also not saying that he can’t, but would the Dodgers really let Trea walk and not 100% believe that they have the solution “in-house?”
Gavin Lux maybe that guy, but I am not convinced. Jacob Amaya could be the defensive replacement, but I am not convinced that he will hit. Gavin Lux is really developing into his role as a second baseman. He is hitting, and his power is starting to develop! He is playing with purpose and confidence! This is the Gavin Lux many fans envisioned.
Plan B could be Gavin Lux at SS with Jacob Amaya as a “Great Field-No Hit Option” (I don’t really mean “no hit.” Part of that plan could be to sign Xander Bogaerts to play 2B or 3B. His bat will play, but his glove is not primetime. I think he could command an 8 Year/ $200 million Contract. He would hit about the same as Trea Turner. Look at this lineup:
- Betts RF
- Lux SS
- Freeman 1B
- Smith C
- Bogaerts 2B
- Muncy 3B
- Lamb/Alberto DH
- Vargas LF
- Bellinger CF
To me, it does not make sense to pay Trea Turner $400 Million… or anything close to that! In another year, Digo Cartaya and Andy Pages will be close to ready. Let the Farm System produce! RELOAD! Bogarts or Muncy can play 3B or 2B, but if Lux cannot handle SS, then it all flies out the window. Frankly, I think Trea Turner is as good as gone… unless his desire is to play in LA and have a chance at winning every year.
Rants & Raves
- Tyler Anderson – He wanted to be a Dodger. He thought the Dodgers could “fix him.” They did! What we are seeing is guy who suddenly has been taught how to pitch within himself. I do not think Tyler Anderson is a “flash in the pan.” I also believe he wants to play for LA – in other words, he might be easy to extend. He would be a #2 or #3 on many teams.
- Mookie Betts – He looks great for a month and then disappears. He is hitting .269. In April, he hit .230. In May, he hit .342. In June, it was .193, and so far in July, it is .244. Go back and look at his stats. That’s his pattern. He will have a great month or six weeks and be “below league average” the rest of the time. I am a fan of Superstar Mookie, but the other Mookie – the one we see every day is not so cool. That’s why the Dodgers have such wild swings at times: their Superstar is not a superstar every game. Go Ahead: Hate me for speaking the truth!
- Will Smith – He is an All-Star!
Future Dodgers Down on the Farm
- OKC lost 8-5
- Miguel Vargas was 1-3 (a 3-run double). He was back at 3B last night.
- Jason Martin hit his 18th HR
- Michael Grove was ineffective in his 2.1 IP (6.08 ERA). I don’t know why they see him as a starter.
- Mark Washington got bombed again (6.75 ERA). There’s something about him I don’t like…
- Dellin Betances (6.14 ERA) Nuff Said!
- Tulsa lost 13-5
- Jonny DeLuca hit 2 HRs and was 2-5 with 3 RBI (.297/.955 at AA)
- Great Lakes won 2-1
- Emmet Sheehan can in in the 4th inning and closed out the game: 5 IP, 2 H, o R, 0 BB, 10 K’s. He is flying high.
- Diego Cartaya was 2-4
- Rancho Cucamonga won 8-2
- Damon Keith was 3-5 with his 11th HR and 3 RBI
- Luis Rodriguez was 2-4 with a double.
Tomorrow: Diego Cartaya Interview
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Discussion (67)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I think you’re way high on the $400 million, probably too long on years. We’re headed for an economic downturn, all the signs are out there. That may put a damper on outlandish contracts.
Likely closer to $300 million, probably seven or eight years max. How many teams can play in the $300 to $400 million range? How many teams want to do that? Tampa Bay? Miami? Not likely. The Yankees need to ink Judge and they’re saddled with large contracts already. The Red Sox are a possibility, I suppose, but they traded away Mookie, so maybe not. They seem to sign players, then try to unload the contracts. Apparently they had no interest in committing that kind of money to Betts.
As far as taxes, I believe players are taxed on where they play actual games. If you play in Arizona for three games, you pay state tax for those games. Complicated formula, based on your contract. So when Seager plays in Anaheim or Oakland, he pays California state taxes. That’s my understanding. Same holds for all sports.
I get it, it only takes one foolish GM or owner to make some ridiculous deal. How is that working out for Texas with Corey Seager? Who was the last baseball player who actually made a difference between a team winning and losing? Takes too many parts. Not like basketball where a couple of players can take you on a championship run. The Angels have two of the best players in the world, but they’re 20 games out of the division race.
All that being said, the Dodgers need to re-sign Trea Turner. He’s a difference maker. He’s also one of the most exciting players in the game. Gavin Lux needs to stay at second. There is really no one in the system who can step up.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dodgers try to patch up shortstop and find a more reasonably priced player to make up the difference. Somewhat like they did with Freddie Freeman. Do they miss Seager? Not really. They managed to improve production without getting stuck with another massive contract that won’t end well.
But the Dodgers are an interesting bunch. Andrew Friedman hints that the payroll is unsustainable, yet they keep driving it higher. Revenues are apparently nearing $600 million. So we’ll see.
Great win yesterday. It looks like we are near a BTreinen after ASG return.
Maybe AF try, like has been rumored, a 5yr/200mil extension for TreaT?
Hey Mark, I know you have some inside information, so I ask why Lux can’t play shortstop according to your sources? Any specifics?
Baseball players are basically taxed at the state rate for each game they play in said state. To do an easy math estimate, half of a player’s games are played in their home state and all other games are treated neutrally since all players play half their games against teams in other states with different tax laws. California has a 12% tax rate, New York (Lindor) has a 9% and Texas has 0 state tax. With that said, if a player was choosing between Texas and California, they would need 6% (Half of the difference of tax rate to account for home games only) more money to be equal. That’s an additional $19.5 M over the life of the contract. (344,500,00 in Seager’s case). If choosing between CA 12% and NY 9% the difference is just 1.5% or 4.875M over the life of the contract.
IMHO, the Dodgers can make the argument that the difference between the salary earned in CA and TX could be made up through endorsements over the life of the contract with a much bigger market and national exposure.
What’s taking the Dodgers so long to promote Cartaya to AA? He hasn’t slowed down a bit after being promoted from low A to A+.
Bogaerts will be 30 years old next season. Would he take a 5-6 year deal? If you sign him, do you trade Busch? Part of me wants the Dodgers to let the kids play. The way JT’s been hitting recently, maybe they should bring him back one more year? Let him go a year too soon, or a year too long? Maybe keep the team intact and let Busch and Vargas earn their playing time against Muncy and JT. CT3 can also play some 2B if things aren’t going well after moving Lux to SS when Trea leaves. Maybe get a bat for LF instead or sign Bogearts and buy Busch an outfielder’s glove?
Mookie is coming off a broken rib, It’s probably affecting his swing. He looks like the tin man. Maybe we should keep second base open for Mookie so he doesn’t run into other outfielders and break more bones. Or maybe he just needs to drink more milk.
Good to see the Dodgers take care of business on the road against a scrappy Cardinals team. People love to complain about our pen. The Cardinals pen was really good last year, but lost two games this season and came close to blowing all three. I don’t think fans appreciate how good our bullpen is especially with so many good arms on the IL.
Well, Phillips closing games was short lived wasn’t it? Different order same result last night. I’m glad that Phillips got a shot, he’s probably save more games this season. Maybe it was good motivation for Kimbrel, who’s still finding himself. I still like using Phillips against the meat of the order. Let’s keep doing that.
“Jason” Martin, “Dellin” Betances.
Mark you have said before that Xander is not a good defensive SS but it’s just not true. Currently he has a higher fielding percentage, has committed less errors, has a better range factor and DWAR than Turner. Xander is currently 15th in MLB in DWAR and Trea is 20th. At the end of the day both Trea and Xander are average defensively which is fine given what they bring to the table offensively.
Players play with injuries and the effects their performance. So last year it was the hip for Mookie now the cracked rib.
A ten year contract for TT would be a mistake IMHO. At the end of such a contract he would be 39 years old. We then would have two albatross like contracts with him and Mookie to deal with.
With the DH you can sacrifice a some offense on a gold glove caliber defender at SS . Put Amaya there-who has started to hit a little better at AAA – and go with Lux at 2nd.
Sign Bogaerts instead of TT and let him play 3b.
Would not deal any of our top prospects for Castillo IF WB and May will come back for the stretch run.
Starting rotation is not a position to adress this deadline . The only guy who would provide an upgrade is Alcantara and he would cost the moon.
Better to bring in another big bat and/or lockdown reliever.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good morning. Always a good morning after a win. Some food for thought for sure Mark. Personally, as a fan I would love to see Trea do his thing in LA for the next several years. I too am in the Lux is not really an MLB SS camp. But I also believe Turner is going to sign a huge deal elsewhere. Since there are no real SS options down on the farm that we can see right now, Lux may become a short-term option until AF either trades for one, or one of their prospects suddenly blossoms. Miami might go after Trea, but personally, I do not think that fits with their plan, and frankly, the team does not draw all that well to afford a 400-million-dollar player, and Trea is 29 now. Lindor is the same age, and Seager is a year younger. Not sure many teams except maybe the Yankees and Dodgers could afford that kind of deal. Maybe the Phillies because they have spent some cash lately. Dansby Swanson is a free agent also. Not the speedster Trea is, but he has some definite skills. Corey Seager added to the All-Star roster and he will participate in the HR derby. It will be interesting to see what kind of reception he is given by the Dodger fans.
SNY is saying that the Reds are interested in Pages as part of any Castillo trade.