A lot of Dodger fans have postulated that the Dodgers should “just extend Trea Turner” right about now, like “just push a button,” and he will be extended. If it were only that simple. I think that right about now, Trea Turner is the best SS in baseball. The Rangers signed Corey Seager for ten years at $325 Million, and the Mets signed Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341 Million. Trea Turner is better than either of those players. Trea Turner is going to get paid a lot more than either Seager or Lindor!
California has a higher tax rate than Texas (by far). I am not an accountant, but I heard that Seager would have had to make about $375 Million from the Dodgers to equal what he makes from the Rangers. Maybe Jeff Dominique can figure that out… oh wait, he’s not here anymore! You can call it greedy, but that is real money. If someone is offering it, someone should take it.
Based upon what Lindor and Seager made, if Trea Turner signs with the Dodgers, it will have to be for ten years and close to $400 million to be equal to (actually slightly better) than Seager or Lindor. Now, for all we know, Turner wants to go back to the East Coast. Actually, that is heavily rumored. The Phillies, Nats, Marlins, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, et al., could be involved. The Dodgers, however, could “front load” a deal with an “opt-out” after three years.
What I mean by that is to sign him to a 10-year $400 Million Dollar Deal, but pay him $150 million in the first three years and let him opt out after three years. Maybe he takes that and moves back to Florida. The Rays and Marlins would both benefit from him… but would they really do it? However, there are other options. I am not convinced that Gavin Lux can play SS – I am also not saying that he can’t, but would the Dodgers really let Trea walk and not 100% believe that they have the solution “in-house?”
Gavin Lux maybe that guy, but I am not convinced. Jacob Amaya could be the defensive replacement, but I am not convinced that he will hit. Gavin Lux is really developing into his role as a second baseman. He is hitting, and his power is starting to develop! He is playing with purpose and confidence! This is the Gavin Lux many fans envisioned.
Plan B could be Gavin Lux at SS with Jacob Amaya as a “Great Field-No Hit Option” (I don’t really mean “no hit.” Part of that plan could be to sign Xander Bogaerts to play 2B or 3B. His bat will play, but his glove is not primetime. I think he could command an 8 Year/ $200 million Contract. He would hit about the same as Trea Turner. Look at this lineup:
- Betts RF
- Lux SS
- Freeman 1B
- Smith C
- Bogaerts 2B
- Muncy 3B
- Lamb/Alberto DH
- Vargas LF
- Bellinger CF
To me, it does not make sense to pay Trea Turner $400 Million… or anything close to that! In another year, Digo Cartaya and Andy Pages will be close to ready. Let the Farm System produce! RELOAD! Bogarts or Muncy can play 3B or 2B, but if Lux cannot handle SS, then it all flies out the window. Frankly, I think Trea Turner is as good as gone… unless his desire is to play in LA and have a chance at winning every year.
Rants & Raves
- Tyler Anderson – He wanted to be a Dodger. He thought the Dodgers could “fix him.” They did! What we are seeing is guy who suddenly has been taught how to pitch within himself. I do not think Tyler Anderson is a “flash in the pan.” I also believe he wants to play for LA – in other words, he might be easy to extend. He would be a #2 or #3 on many teams.
- Mookie Betts – He looks great for a month and then disappears. He is hitting .269. In April, he hit .230. In May, he hit .342. In June, it was .193, and so far in July, it is .244. Go back and look at his stats. That’s his pattern. He will have a great month or six weeks and be “below league average” the rest of the time. I am a fan of Superstar Mookie, but the other Mookie – the one we see every day is not so cool. That’s why the Dodgers have such wild swings at times: their Superstar is not a superstar every game. Go Ahead: Hate me for speaking the truth!
- Will Smith – He is an All-Star!
Future Dodgers Down on the Farm
- OKC lost 8-5
- Miguel Vargas was 1-3 (a 3-run double). He was back at 3B last night.
- Jason Martin hit his 18th HR
- Michael Grove was ineffective in his 2.1 IP (6.08 ERA). I don’t know why they see him as a starter.
- Mark Washington got bombed again (6.75 ERA). There’s something about him I don’t like…
- Dellin Betances (6.14 ERA) Nuff Said!
- Tulsa lost 13-5
- Jonny DeLuca hit 2 HRs and was 2-5 with 3 RBI (.297/.955 at AA)
- Great Lakes won 2-1
- Emmet Sheehan can in in the 4th inning and closed out the game: 5 IP, 2 H, o R, 0 BB, 10 K’s. He is flying high.
- Diego Cartaya was 2-4
- Rancho Cucamonga won 8-2
- Damon Keith was 3-5 with his 11th HR and 3 RBI
- Luis Rodriguez was 2-4 with a double.
Discussion (33)
Disagree, not disagreeable
And we coulda seen one of the last complete game shutouts!
Six more! Or unless Doc pulls him!
So, what is Clayton Kershaw made of?
Alberto is making me look bad so far today. LOL. But his overall stats are not.
I think this guy should start the All Star game!
Justin Benjamin Button Turner
Hey Phil
Like Mark said when he’s good…
The more recent history:
2020
sighed 1year contract with Dodgers
3-1 with 2.66 era
1 scoreless inning in World Series
2021
Signed with Giants 31 saves in
36 chances
3-2 2.72 era
2022
Giants Pitched in 24 games
1-2 3 saves 7.17 era
I like the 2021 version
Maybe he is fixable.
9:38 PM ET
Dodgers (58-30)
Angels (39-51)
SP Clayton Kershaw L
6-2 2.40 ERA 63.2IP 69K
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
SS Trea Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
DH Will Smith R
3B J. Turner R
2B H. Alberto R
CF T. Thompson R
C A. Barnes R
LF Gavin Lux L
Clear-day
0% Rain
74° Wind 8 mph Out
I’m thinking TT finds playing for this organization is a good fit for him. Surely better than where he’s played before. Dodger Stadium is the 3rd oldest park but is still very modern and his stardom has grown since he arrived in LA. I sure he’ll be taking these things into consideration as the grind of a season is heavy regardless of where home is. He’s not playing like he’s disgruntled.
Well the parts place sent the wrong parts to Big O. So my truck won’t be finished until tomorrow. But that is ok, I did not have anywhere pressing to go today anyway. Found out a couple of interesting things I did not know today though. Preston Mattingly, who the Dodgers drafted years ago, is now the director of minor league operations for the Phillies. He has had the job for about 8 weeks. He also went back to college after his minor league stints were over and played college basketball before returning to baseball. Druw Jones, is the top prospect in the draft coming up. His dad is, you guessed it, Andruw Jones. Quite the ballplayer when he was a Brave but the worst free agent signing in Dodger history in my book, with Schmidt a close second. Carl Crawford and Dave Roberts son’s are also expected to be drafted.
Thanks Eric. Maybe a retool in the minors with different pitches. How guys have we fixed in the last few years!
Hansel Robles’s career stats to me are average. He is similar against both sides of the plate, so he has that going for him. Let’s see what he can do in AAA.
It would be nice if Kimbrel has turned a corner and gotten back on track.
I looked at Almonte’s away from home stats, when he was with the Rockies (taking out the time he pitched in the thin air in Denver). He had a solid/good first year, then a bad year, then 2 excellent years in a row. He’s been excellent this year too. So he may be the real deal.
Phillips has a .458 OPS against him this year. Wow, out of this world excellent. As Mark says, nuff said.
There’s enough good relievers that Friedman put together this year to make a very good bullpen (that’s not complaining about the current bullpen by the way). The problem is getting them all healthy at the same time (Treinen, Kahnle Gonzalez), getting a couple of them that have great career stats, back on track (Kimbrel and Moronta), getting a few of them to be better against one side of the plate (Graterol, Vesia, Gonzalez), add Phillips, who’s out of this world excellent this year and Almonte, who’s excellent this year, and you have a very good/top of the line bullpen. Even Daniel Hudson was in that mix too, but unfortunately he’s gone for the year, I think.
Freddie Freeman keeps on doing what he does. Great to have him on the team.
I’d love to see Trea Turner stay with the Dodgers, all he does is put up a 300ish+ average and a 800+ OPS. Great player. It all depends on the money/contract size.
Will Smith, my favorite position player (I favor guys that come up through the Dodgers organization) has a .824 OPS now. Good to see that.
Gavin Lux has a .798 OPS now, good enough for me. Just wish there was more power there in case the batting average and OBP slides.
Hansel and Graterol
Hansel Robles is interesting. Throws 96-97. Has had some success. Could be nothing… Yency Almonte!
In 2018 and 2019 he had back-to-back sub 3.00 ERA and 23 saves one year.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robleha01.shtml
Here’s some video of him:
Maybe the Dodgers can do some Voo Doo that they Doo on him.
* I mentioned the other day, I would explore ALMOST anything to keep Trea Turner for 5 years. He is that special of a player. Maybe it’s ill fated and he wants to leave. But I never expected to get Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman either. He’s going to break the bank. And he should. He’s the best shortstop in a great class of shortstops coming into free agency.
* My thoughts:
Trea Turner – make him an offer that’s hard to turn down. For 5 years. Longer term, no thanks. I love Mark’s idea of front-loading a deal. We have the money coming up and who else would be a higher priority as a position player? If that means we don’t re-sign Muncy and Bellinger later, I’m good with that. You have to pay your best players.
Correa – No thanks. I still have the red-ass with any Asstro. Ex or otherwise.
Boggaerts – Boston may trade him before the season’s over. If not, He’s 30.
Tim Anderson – I think a comparable talent. Hits and D’s improving, speed, athlete. I think the Sox will exercise their 2023 option.
Dansby Swanson – nice player and having a career year. Still a career .254 hitter
* Or it’s Plan B if Trea decides to walk and / or we decide not to give him “dope fiend” money. That option. We fill the spot internally:
* Lux at short. I’m with MT and question his skills there as an everyday guy. I know his minor league experience at Short, where he was a .937 fielder. Maybe he’d be great. But he’s NOT Trea Turner.
* Jacob Amaya – I love his actions on D but can he hit? I’ve seen flashes. But he will never hit .300 in the Big Leagues. So do we save lots of money, that we’ll spend elsewhere, and put up with his lack or O for his D?
I want to pursue Trea Turner until he says NO and signs elsewhere.
* Tyler Anderson is so fun to watch. He is a “crafty” leftie. With so many guys now at a 100mph, it’s refreshing to watch a guy do it an old fashioned, Jaimie Moyer, way. He’s a really comfortable 0 for 3.
* Freddie. What can you say. I can’t remember anyone hotter.
* Dakota Hudson is a rain delay. He really needs to pick it up. He puts everyone to sleep including his infield. I hated playing behind slow pitchers.
* That’s why I want Lux in the 9 hole. He is effective there and broke up the 1 for 11 in the 3 spots ahead of him last night. Plus I really like having basically 3 lead off type hitters with he, Betts and Turner in front of Freddie the 2nd time thru. He seems comfortable there so leave him be. He’s hitting .300.
* Phillips continues to be Mr Reliable while Kimberly drives me crazy. Almost 30 pitches every time. At least he got his job done, finally.
* What is it with fussy closers? Doc had to tip-toe around KJ’s ego and now Kimbrel’s. The “excuse” surfaced that Kimbrel is promised he’ll pitch every 3rd day at least. So that’s why he was in the 8th inning last time. I would promise him shit. He’d be a teammate and pitch when I wanted him to. Right now, Phillips is better. Way better.
* That’s probably why Doc is doing what he’s doing and I’m here talking about it.
How did Treinens bullpen session went yesterday ?
Have not heard about it.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!
Hansel Robles come on down, you’re the next contestant in the Dodger acquisition of veteran arms in hope of catching some lightning in a bottle.
Robles has been signed to a minor league contract and will report to OKC most likely to see if he is someone that might be an addition to a BP that is experiencing some injury woes.
Can’t hurt to try so why not. Where’s Kahnle (I know he has a bone bruise) but goodness gracious the Dodgers have seen no return on that investment.
Almonte looks good, but we do indeed need Trienen back and pitching like before the IL stint
I was pushing for Castillo because I figured Anderson would revert to middling form. But as Anderson continues to excel, I’m having my doubts.
I wouldn’t break the bank for Trea. If the Dodgers win the WS, if his family decides they like living in SoCal after all, he might accept a bit less to stay with a winner. He’ll get big money no matter what, but there is little reason for Dodgers to be lured into a bidding war when there ample alternatives.
If Lux is better off at 2B, Amaya could be the answer. By most accounts he has the best infield glove in the organization. Some of the highlights are dazzling. The Yankees now have the best record in baseball with a glove-first SS–and Kiner-Falefa isn’t close to Andrelton Simmons or Ozzie Smith in their primes. (Hell, don’t we have a glove-first centerfielder now?)
To my mind, there is only one player the Dodgers should break the bank for, because he’s really two players in one,.
My eyes aren’t working so good this morning. I’ll try later.
What would the Reds want for Solano?
He’d be a good addition
I’d like the Dodgers to resign TT, but I don’t think AF can afford another long term, top of the market contract. They already have Mookie’s contract. I was all for Mookie’s signing even though not so much with the terms. I thought it would be a decent deal for at least the first 5-6 years and then kind of iffy thereafter. Well, in my opinion, it’s already gone bad. With Mookie’s athleticism and wiry frame injuries would not be much of an issue. Especially since he was playing in the outfield. I was wrong on that assessment. Mookie is a very good player, but is not a superstar. As Mark mentioned above he is too inconsistent with little middle ground. He’s either on fire or frustratingly non productive. To me that isn’t what I consider a superstar. Am I happy he is on the Dodgers? Absolutely! My comments are about the value Mookie is providing relative to how much he will be paid in the future. Add in Freddie’s contract and I don’t think AF will want to make a ten year/$400M commitment to TT. With the highly rated Dodger minor league system and development let’s see what these prospects can do in the next 2-3 years. Isn’t why the front office stresses prospect development in order to reduce the need to go out and spend “dope fiend” amounts of money on free agents? Gavin Lux is the only position prospect to advance since Bellinger came up.
Some comments yesterday on Phillips closing out the game and Kimbrel pitching the eighth inning. Why did Roberts make this unusual move? Joe Davis mentioned that Roberts and Kimbrel have an agreement that Kimbrel won’t more than three days without pitching in a game. So, not sure there would be a bottom of the ninth Roberts inserted Kimbrel in the eighth in order to meet that agreement. Fortunately, they had Phillips available to close out the game. If that’s true, then what the hell? How does Roberts feel the need to accommodate Kimbrel considering how inconsistent he has been this year? Again, is this the FO or Roberts making this decision? Very interesting.
Is the Max Muncy experience ever going to stop in the near term? I’ll say it again. I would think Max is in need of some mental shutdown for a few games. How he struck out three times against Hudson last night is unsettling. This has to be crushing Max’s confidence. How much can a guy take before he snaps? This has been one of Roberts (or FO) worst examples of sticking with a player in trying to get him back on track. Max can’t even leave the station. Sad Max indeed.
Carry on.
UPDATE ABOVE:
We’ll see how much the Dodgers like Busch and Vargas next year. Someone once said that Busch was the next Albert Pujols. So much of TT’s game revolves around his speed and how does that play out in his mid to late 30’s. I don’t think AF signs him. I’d rather have a depth of talent than top heavy talent.
My thoughts are the Dodgers will not pay what TT will get in free agency. Last year when Seager got hurt Lux had a long run at short. From the games I saw he looked more than comfortable there. His hitting was an issue but to me he has resolved that this year.
Max is not broken just recovering from a serious injury last season. Bring up Vargas and Jason Martin in September and see what happens. My line up 2023
1-Freddie
2-Max
3- Vargas
SS- Lux
C- Smith
RF- Mookie
CF- Bellie
LF-Thompson/Lamb/Martin
DH- JT/Rios
No player should or could cost $400 million, how far will this salary escalation go?
How much is left or who will be the first player to demand a HALF BILLION DOLLAR contract?
Hopefully the Dodgers don’t help baseball stop being a family sport to become a sport only for the rich, for the elite.
$150 million for 3 years? Wow, even so, I doubt he would accept it, so at 32 years old, what kind of contract could he get after?
Still, $50 is too much, not even to Trout or Ohtani, no one is worth that much!
I think you’re way high on the $400 million, probably too long on years. We’re headed for an economic downturn, all the signs are out there. That may put a damper on outlandish contracts.
Likely closer to $300 million, probably seven or eight years max. How many teams can play in the $300 to $400 million range? How many teams want to do that? Tampa Bay? Miami? Not likely. The Yankees need to ink Judge and they’re saddled with large contracts already. The Red Sox are a possibility, I suppose, but they traded away Mookie, so maybe not. They seem to sign players, then try to unload the contracts. Apparently they had no interest in committing that kind of money to Betts.
As far as taxes, I believe players are taxed on where they play actual games. If you play in Arizona for three games, you pay state tax for those games. Complicated formula, based on your contract. So when Seager plays in Anaheim or Oakland, he pays California state taxes. That’s my understanding. Same holds for all sports.
I get it, it only takes one foolish GM or owner to make some ridiculous deal. How is that working out for Texas with Corey Seager? Who was the last baseball player who actually made a difference between a team winning and losing? Takes too many parts. Not like basketball where a couple of players can take you on a championship run. The Angels have two of the best players in the world, but they’re 20 games out of the division race.
All that being said, the Dodgers need to re-sign Trea Turner. He’s a difference maker. He’s also one of the most exciting players in the game. Gavin Lux needs to stay at second. There is really no one in the system who can step up.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dodgers try to patch up shortstop and find a more reasonably priced player to make up the difference. Somewhat like they did with Freddie Freeman. Do they miss Seager? Not really. They managed to improve production without getting stuck with another massive contract that won’t end well.
But the Dodgers are an interesting bunch. Andrew Friedman hints that the payroll is unsustainable, yet they keep driving it higher. Revenues are apparently nearing $600 million. So we’ll see.
Great win yesterday. It looks like we are near a BTreinen after ASG return.
Maybe AF try, like has been rumored, a 5yr/200mil extension for TreaT?
Hey Mark, I know you have some inside information, so I ask why Lux can’t play shortstop according to your sources? Any specifics?
Baseball players are basically taxed at the state rate for each game they play in said state. To do an easy math estimate, half of a player’s games are played in their home state and all other games are treated neutrally since all players play half their games against teams in other states with different tax laws. California has a 12% tax rate, New York (Lindor) has a 9% and Texas has 0 state tax. With that said, if a player was choosing between Texas and California, they would need 6% (Half of the difference of tax rate to account for home games only) more money to be equal. That’s an additional $19.5 M over the life of the contract. (344,500,00 in Seager’s case). If choosing between CA 12% and NY 9% the difference is just 1.5% or 4.875M over the life of the contract.
IMHO, the Dodgers can make the argument that the difference between the salary earned in CA and TX could be made up through endorsements over the life of the contract with a much bigger market and national exposure.
What’s taking the Dodgers so long to promote Cartaya to AA? He hasn’t slowed down a bit after being promoted from low A to A+.
Bogaerts will be 30 years old next season. Would he take a 5-6 year deal? If you sign him, do you trade Busch? Part of me wants the Dodgers to let the kids play. The way JT’s been hitting recently, maybe they should bring him back one more year? Let him go a year too soon, or a year too long? Maybe keep the team intact and let Busch and Vargas earn their playing time against Muncy and JT. CT3 can also play some 2B if things aren’t going well after moving Lux to SS when Trea leaves. Maybe get a bat for LF instead or sign Bogearts and buy Busch an outfielder’s glove?
Mookie is coming off a broken rib, It’s probably affecting his swing. He looks like the tin man. Maybe we should keep second base open for Mookie so he doesn’t run into other outfielders and break more bones. Or maybe he just needs to drink more milk.
Good to see the Dodgers take care of business on the road against a scrappy Cardinals team. People love to complain about our pen. The Cardinals pen was really good last year, but lost two games this season and came close to blowing all three. I don’t think fans appreciate how good our bullpen is especially with so many good arms on the IL.
Well, Phillips closing games was short lived wasn’t it? Different order same result last night. I’m glad that Phillips got a shot, he’s probably save more games this season. Maybe it was good motivation for Kimbrel, who’s still finding himself. I still like using Phillips against the meat of the order. Let’s keep doing that.
“Jason” Martin, “Dellin” Betances.
Mark you have said before that Xander is not a good defensive SS but it’s just not true. Currently he has a higher fielding percentage, has committed less errors, has a better range factor and DWAR than Turner. Xander is currently 15th in MLB in DWAR and Trea is 20th. At the end of the day both Trea and Xander are average defensively which is fine given what they bring to the table offensively.
Players play with injuries and the effects their performance. So last year it was the hip for Mookie now the cracked rib.
A ten year contract for TT would be a mistake IMHO. At the end of such a contract he would be 39 years old. We then would have two albatross like contracts with him and Mookie to deal with.
With the DH you can sacrifice a some offense on a gold glove caliber defender at SS . Put Amaya there-who has started to hit a little better at AAA – and go with Lux at 2nd.
Sign Bogaerts instead of TT and let him play 3b.
Would not deal any of our top prospects for Castillo IF WB and May will come back for the stretch run.
Starting rotation is not a position to adress this deadline . The only guy who would provide an upgrade is Alcantara and he would cost the moon.
Better to bring in another big bat and/or lockdown reliever.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good morning. Always a good morning after a win. Some food for thought for sure Mark. Personally, as a fan I would love to see Trea do his thing in LA for the next several years. I too am in the Lux is not really an MLB SS camp. But I also believe Turner is going to sign a huge deal elsewhere. Since there are no real SS options down on the farm that we can see right now, Lux may become a short-term option until AF either trades for one, or one of their prospects suddenly blossoms. Miami might go after Trea, but personally, I do not think that fits with their plan, and frankly, the team does not draw all that well to afford a 400-million-dollar player, and Trea is 29 now. Lindor is the same age, and Seager is a year younger. Not sure many teams except maybe the Yankees and Dodgers could afford that kind of deal. Maybe the Phillies because they have spent some cash lately. Dansby Swanson is a free agent also. Not the speedster Trea is, but he has some definite skills. Corey Seager added to the All-Star roster and he will participate in the HR derby. It will be interesting to see what kind of reception he is given by the Dodger fans.
SNY is saying that the Reds are interested in Pages as part of any Castillo trade.