The criticism of Andrew Friedmans lack of off-season moves is being read in social media circles and blogs like there’s no tomorrow. Many fans are expressing their opinions without a clear understanding of the ramifications and penalties levied to teams that sign free agents. I entered in a mini heated debate with a respected writer the other day who is insistent that the Dodgers sign a top tier free agent. I was shocked to read in his response that he was unaware of the penalties the Dodgers would face for signing said player. Below is a reminder to LADodgertalk readers who I am convinced are the most cerebral Dodger fans around.
According to the latest collective bargaining agreement, if a player signed via free agency received a qualifying offer from their team of departure, (Dansby Swanson falls under this situation). The team that signs him will lose draft picks. Where they lose the picks depends on the team’s previous year payroll. If the team exceeded the luxury tax the previous season, which the Dodger did, they lose their second and fifth selections in the draft as well as $1 million from their international bonus pool for the coming year. This is a huge price to pay for a top tier free agent. In some cases, it is worth it. I don’t believe that to be the case with Swanson, Carlos Rodon or any other remaining free agents available.
On Swanson
So many discussions are being bandied about regarding the possible signing of Dansby Swanson. MLB network just had a segment on the remaining free agents and two of the three commentators predicted that he signs L.A. This is short-sided analysis. If with the Dodgers are really seriously considering Swanson, it’ll be a big mistake.
A reset on the competitive balance tax is necessary for this organization. Financially they still sit in in an unsafe situation as a Trevor Bauer ruling that reinstates him with back pay could place the Dodgers at a payroll level above the established threshold. The 2022-23 off-season is the time for that reset.
The loss of two early picks and international signing bonus money would be a huge setback. If a move must be made for a shortstop outside the organization, let it be via trade. I know Swanson and Freeman are friends, but that needs to be pushed aside and a decision for the good of the franchise needs to be made.
Will we see a spring training invite to a player like Andrelton Simmons on a minor league contract? Something similar to the Jason Heyward invitation might be the move they make. Simmons is still solid defensively. I still prefer in house solutions that include, Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor or a minor league option such as Jacob Amaya.
The Syndergaard Signing
Noah Syndergaard did not receive a qualifying offer to stay with the Phillies, so his signing does not penalize the Dodgers.
Year two after Tommy John surgery is usually the “fully recovered” season. There is no holding back. The confidence to let it air out returns. I get the sense that Syndergaard will have something to prove in 2023. It looks as though the right hander has accepted a below market offer to bet on himself that this will be a breakout year that could result in a big contract for him next year. He is only 30 years old. Add the fact that he will be pitching in a pitcher’s park and with a top tier team, this is a good fit for Syndergaard.
The Dodgers will have Thor slated as their number 5 guy. This is a testament to how strong their pitching staff is. A year ago, we hardly questioned who Tyler Anderson was and didn’t even noticed his signing. Today, fans are complaining that Anderson has left and meanwhile the Dodgers have replaced him with a solid starter with a proven history of success. Syndergaard’s velocity is down a tick, but that shouldn’t be a concern. His heater is still in the 94 MPH range instead of his high a few years back of 97. Perhaps another year post surgery will result in the old velo he used to have, (as well as a rise in his K-rate, that also went down). A year under the guidance of Mark Prior should also help.
Some call this another dumpster dive move, but it is hardly that. $13 million plus incentives for one year is a fairly reasonable contract in today’s free agency environment. The deal is a wise short-term move, though I wouldn’t mind seeing some of the kids getting a shot.
Feyereisen
Another Friedman acquisition on Tuesday of interest was with Tampa as the Dodgers dealt minor league lefty Jeff Belge for JP Feyereisen. This is similar to the Tommy Kahnle signing the Dodgers had a few years ago. Feyereisen has a shoulder injury that should keep him out most of the season and is recovering from surgery. Look for him to sit out 2023 and comeback in 2024. He is under team control until the 2026 season. Belge pitched in the Dodger organization at high A Great Lakes in 2022 and is slated to move up to AA ball. He was not ranked amongst the top 50 Dodger minor league prospects, but Tampa saw something of promise in him.
Left Field
A few free agent options remain but it is doubtful that a move of significance will be made if it is for high dollars. I’ll throw these names out there though: AJ Pollock and Jurickson Profar. Doubtful that they are considered, but they remain available. There are valid reasons why Jason Heyward is being given a shot. First, because he’s dirt cheap, and second, because he may have the motivation to show the world that he isn’t washed up. Also, it has low risk/high reward potential. There are numerous in-house options available as well, so if Heyward fails to impress in Spring Training, the minor league prospects remain in place.
It is still early
It is important to remember that there are still two months until pitchers and catchers report, so Andrew Friedman is likely not done dealing. As he watched the dust settle on massive free agent contract signings around winter meetings time, an assessment of organizational needs and the dozens of remaining options was undoubtedly made. We speculate on potential deals for guys like Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and Friedman probably has something in mind that none of us have even thought of. Sometimes the best moves are the ones not made.
Fans will gripe and fuss about what they perceive as an inactive front office but that is hardly the case. When you consider they are hamstrung by the Bauer appeal decision, the Dodgers have actually been quite active with prudent, low risk deals thus far. West Division rivals have made significant strides and improved, but this is no time to panic. The Dodger roster as currently constituted is still a 90+ win team.
Discussion (16)
Disagree, not disagreeable
What would it take to get B. Reynolds from Pittsburgh? Would a combo of Gonsolin and Pages be enough?
Can someone tell me why the Dodgers would owe Bauer backpay? Isn’t he set to make something like 32 million if he plays this year so why is the number 60 being bandied about? ☺
Has AF shown any evidence that he is interested in going outside the fold to get a SS this year ? With any seriousness?
Think there’s any chance Swanson hold up his decision to see how things shake out with Bauer ? If Bauer re-instated we’re close/over threshold anyway let’s be pigs and get Swanson . Think he will be solid and age well.
Also – ‘F’ them picks ! deep enough farm to weather losing few late rounders.
Still don’t think Swanson is worth long term, 25 mil a year contract that he’s gonna get! Even at his best much less down the road as he ages. I think AF passes
Cassidy, we’ve been spoiled by Seager and Turner the last few seasons, but prototypically defense is prioritized at the SS position. To keep things in perspective, Correa has a career K rate of over 20% according to fangraphs. I don’t see Swanson as an elite SS, but he’s definitely in play in that second tier along with Willy Adames whom the Dodgers were rumored to have interest in a potential trade with the Brewers. Keep in mind Adames has a career K rate of over 28%. Having said that, does K rate depict a player’s overall value? Not in my opinion. According to fangraphs, last season Swanson was second in WAR to Lindor at the SS position. I realize defense is heavily weighted in WAR, which in my opinion SS is one of the few positions where it is ok to prioritize defense.
Good article Evan, but I find it interesting that for the most part fans are more protective of draft picks than prospects. If given a choice, I would gladly punt picks than already established prospects that teams are likely to request in potential trades. Of course, unless there is a specific prospect that our scouting department is targeting. Then again, our first draft pick is not high enough to establish that type of projection.
A guy who strikes out 180 times and his best seasons have a mid .700 OPS is NOT a beast and not worth 25 mil a season in my book!
Personally, I would be ecstatic with Swanson and really don’t care about the money or draft picks. Swanson is a beast and look how this will encourage Freddie to have his best friend.
We don’t need all these draft picks…we have enough and besides, don’t we have plenty of guys in the minors waiting to get a chance?
Now is the time to make your move for the present is here for the taking.
Good article but your statement about Thor’s fastball sitting 97-98 is incorrect. His fastball averaged 94.1 in 2022 and he didn’t throw a single pitch over 96.4. His velocity did tick up in October so that is a positive sign.
Conforto, Brantley or Benitendi seem viable options for left field.
Middle infielder Jeter Downs got DFA’d by the Red Sox. Strikes out too much.
He was a guy the Dodgers got from Cincy (with Josiah Gray, I think) and became part of the Mookie deal.
I hope he is able to hook on somewhere, perhaps with the Dodgers.
Dodgers trade with the A’s for infielder Yonny Hernandez. Plays three positions in the infield. Not a power hitter, as a matter of fact, not much of a hitter period. But he walks a lot, and rarely strikes out. Also if they want to really think ahead, Japanese slugger, Munetaka Murakami will be posted after the 26 season when he will be turning 26. He has hit 160 homers in his four years in the JPL. He hit 56 last season, breaking Sadaharu Oh’s record for a Japanese born player.
Dodgers have signed Adan Kolarek to a minor league contract.
I could be wrong, but, I don’t think you’ll see the Dodgers ink Dansby Swanson. Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor can play short. The cost of acquiring Swanson would be too high and the return too small. They could use a center fielder though. I’m guessing that is the priority.
Right now, the pitching, both starters and bullpen look to be elite. The depth is better with Thor on board.
But the offense, without Trea and maybe JT, is not quite as good. A lot may rest with Miguel Vargas.
Still look for Friedman to work a trade to boost the outfield. You’re right, there is still plenty of time.
A lot of fans may be having anxiety. I’m sure Friedman is not immune to all that, he even admitted it during a recent interview. But those who wait for things to unfold often win the big prize.
Excellent article Evan, I congratulate you for the focused, realistic and objective analysis, thank you very much, I have a question for you, do AF or the property in general put any kind of pressure on the commissioner to resolve the TB situation? I believe that this uncertainty causes loss of opportunities and ultimately money for Dodgers, thanks in advance for your attention.
“Financially they still sit in in an unsafe situation as a Trevor Bauer ruling that reinstates him with back pay could place the Dodgers at a payroll level above the established threshold.”
Please expand: are you saying if he’s reinstated, we’d owe him for 2021 and 2022? Didn’t he still get paid for those years? And this pay would push us even higher on the salary charts for back years? So we’d owe back taxes?