This Feels Like Rock Bottom
Just a few days ago, the Dodgers were 5-2, and now three games and 29 runs given up later, they sit at 5-5 – all of the losses coming at the hands of the Diamondbacks, who may or may not be a .500 club. Regardless of what their ultimate record may be, they’re young and exciting……
Just a few days ago, the Dodgers were 5-2, and now three games and 29 runs given up later, they sit at 5-5 – all of the losses coming at the hands of the Diamondbacks, who may or may not be a .500 club. Regardless of what their ultimate record may be, they’re young and exciting… and dangerous. Predictably and right upon cue, Dodger fans are moaning and groaning and lamenting how bad this team is. Personally, I cannot remember a Dodger pitching staff giving up 29 runs in a weekend. I’m sure it has happened – I just can’t remember it. If this is Rock Bottom, then I’m happy. Things could be so much worse.
The World Champion Astros are 4-6, while the runners-up are 3-6. The TB Rays are 9-0, and the Milwaukee Brewers are 7-2. No one is printing the tickets. The Dodgers are ten games into the season, and some fans are throwing in the towel. Unless the team is 0-10, then the only fans who are giving up on the season are the ones who (a) want to drive themselves crazy; or (b) are already crazy! Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail, and you will be neither.
There is reason to believe that things will turn around. You can be a glass-half-full person and talk about how bad David Peralta, Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas, Max Muncy, and Austin Barnes are, or you could be a glass-half-full person and talk about how the two rookies are doing well after ten games, both offensively and defensively, how JDM is starting to hit like he is supposed to, or how Jason Heyward is raising some eyebrows. A glass-half-empty person will talk about how suddenly Ferguson, Jackson, Thor, Bazooka, Almonte, Vesia, and Grove all have ERA’s of 4.5 to 14.73, while a glass-half-full person will talk about how Shelby Miller has pitched five scoreless innings or how Evan Phillips has been nails, and that May, Urias, and Bickford have all looked very good.
The truth is, the glass is not half full or half empty. The glass is refillable, and the Dodgers can refill it at any time, whether that be from the Minors, such as replacing Mike Grove with Gavin Stone or Ryan Pepiot (not sure where he is in recovering from his injury) or trading for another player or two with their prospect collateral in a month or two. The only thing imminent is that Grove might not get another start (or he may). It’s still very early, and if this is “rock bottom,” we are indeed fortunate. For the record, I am not saying it is.
The minor league shuttle for pitchers could start up as early as today. At the end of Spring Training, I wondered aloud if Yency Almonte had an injury, and I still am not convinced. Yency is out of options, but Vesia isn’t. Yency could be an IL candidate. There is not a shortage of other candidatesBryan Hudson has struck out 10 in 5 IP. Wander Suero has a 1.80 ERA, while Nick Robertson has a 1.50 and V-Gon sits at 2.45. Jake Reed, Jimmy Nelson, and Daniel Hudson could be ready soon. Of course, Tony Gonsolin is due back at any time. These are all MLB arms, and they will likely get untracked.
Thor worries me the most, but the fact is: they could replace him with Gavin Stone and not miss a beat. A few days ago, many were saying that Jason Heyward was done. Hitting .300 with 3 HR, they are no longer saying that. Yes, it is a small sampling – which is exactly the point! Now, we are hearing that Max Muncy is a boat anchor and that he has never been able to play 3B. Over eight seasons, Max has started 173 games at 3B. How would you know? 3B has always been an afterthought for him. Let him focus on it for a couple of months, and you might feel differently. The Dodgers re-did their infield and the weather prevented it from really “setting.” Of course, if you don’t have your feet, you don’t have much, but only Phil Jones has picked up on that.
I am going to submit that if you were good enough to look at a player and say they are finished or just ready to get going, it would be something that you pull out of where the sun doesn’t shine. You aren’t that good – oh, you may think you are, but I’ll bet no one is paying you for your analysis. So, you make a guess based on what you are seeing or even think you are seeing. Sometimes we can see the same thing and have a different opinion. It’s all a matter of perspective and bias!
Muncy, Peralta, Taylor, Thompson, and others will not have the latitude that Cody Bellinger did last year. This runway is shorter…much shorter. The next 30 to 40 games will write the story, but no one knows what the story is, after just ten games. This may be rock bottom, but then again, maybe it’s not!
Who thinks Milwaukee is trading any pitchers or their SS right about now? Bryan Reynolds would be an idiot to sign for what Pittsburgh is offering. Freddie Freeman has only driven in two runs – do you think that is going to continue? There is so much left to figure out. We just have to watch and learn.
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Discussion (64)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The best Dodgers news in recent days has come from the farm system, especially from pitchers like Frasso, Sheehan, River Ryan and Jordan Leasure. Victor Gonzales also had a good outing.
Groves got hit, but Gonsolin and Pepiot should be back soon–and perhaps we’ll see Gavin Stone by midseason.
The depth can help on the field and in trades as well. Bryan Reynolds is still an obvious target. But who else?
This doesn’t feel like rock bottom to me, especially since Outman and Vargas are playing well. But it doesn’t feel great either. Credit to the Serpientes for emphasizing speed precisely when the rules are changed to emphasize speed as well.
I agree that the Dodgers haven’t played nearly enough games to know anything yet, but there are some long-term trends that may give hints about the future:
1 – David Peralta had one season where he hit more than 17 HR. In a 10 year career, he averages 12 HR. Last year he had an OPS of .731. He’s been a pretty good LF against RHP, but he’s now 35. There’s a reason that he wasn’t signed until 2/16. I don’t have high hopes for him.
2 – Max Muncy had an OPS of .713 and K’d 141 times in 565 PA (25%). This year he has an OPS of .505 and a K rate of 39% (he’s leading the league in Ks – 16 in 41 AB). What’s really troubling is the number of center cut fastballs that he takes early in the count. Last year, he had a .955 FA, this year it’s .923 with the rest of his defensive metrics also far below average. Trends aren’t good.
3 – Chris Taylor – Last year’s OPS was .677 and 160 K in 454 PA (35% K rate). This year he has a .560 OPS with a K rate of 37.5%. At least he can catch the ball.
4 – Miguel Rojas has one season with an OPS over .736. It was .713 in 2021, .605 last year, and .387 this year. At least he can catch the ball. Trends aren’t good.
5 – Michael Grove – last year in 9 appearances, he had an ERA of 6.63 and a WHIP of 1.609. This year the numbers are 14.73 and 2.318. Isn’t it time to try someone else?
6 – Alex Vesia – Sports Illustrated reported that he had the longest time between pitches of any pitcher on the Dodgers’ staff in 2022 (25 seconds). He looks to me like he hasn’t made the pitch clock adjustment yet.
7 – Yency Almonte – He was not healthy during Spring Training. Has he pitched like he’s healthy so far this year?
The Dodgers will be better than they’ve played thus far in 2023, but I’m not convinced that they are a team that will win more than 90 games. They look slow – too many old guys. Last in MLB in SB with 1 in 10 games (D-backs leading the league with 17). They have struck out 90 times in 10 games (7th in MLB). They have walked 58 times (1st). Makes you wonder if they got the memo about the rule changes?
It the end of the world! But, my take on this weekend is a little different. I was thoroughly disappointed watching the d-backs go with pitches to the opposite fields, swinging aggressively on first pitches, just plummel our pitchers ! It’s only 3 games I know. But their approach at the plate was outstanding. We did score enough runs to win all 3 games, but when is the last time you saw a dodger team get demoralized like that? It was embarrassing. Hopefully it was one of those freaky weekend s. Two strikes, base hit time and time again. Freddie looked MVP ish, we’ll come back!
I doubt this is rock bottom, obviously repeating 111 wins wasn’t going to happen.
I also doubt the team ends up out of the playoffs.
In 2019, the Nationals were 12-17 on the first day of May. What was the result? World Championship!
In 2020, the Dodgers led wire-to-wire… and played an extra playoff series. What was the result? World Championship!
In 2021, the Barves were 4-8 after 12 games and spent over half the season under .500. What was the result? World Championship!
The 2022 Astros were 6-8 after 14 games. What was the result? World Championship!
You just never know. NO, YOU REALLY DON’T!
Every year, when the Dodgers hit a bad streak, everyone loses their minds, and I say “Patience!” This year is no different… except some of you should know better by now.
Losing Lux sucked.
He was the young dynamic bridge between the rookies and the veterans.
I don’t believe it’s a half empty glass to predict a player will likely produce numbers similar to how the back of his baseball card reads. In 14 years Jason Heyward has a career OPS+ of 101. He’s been an All Star once, and that was 14 years ago. David Peralta has decent numbers over his career, but most of his success has come against RHP. He OPS’s .664 against LHP. We have 2 rookies in the starting lineup this year, two more in the rotation, and 2 veterans who are clearly struggling. It’s probably going to take some time to get this offense to gel.
That said, we just lost 3 out of 4 while scoring 22 runs. That suggests to me we have pitching issues. And yes, the dbacks look like an exciting club, but they just gave up 22 runs in 4 games. How bad is that you may ask? Well, 5.5 RPG last year would have been dead last in MLB.
Small sample, yes. But make no mistake, this team has some potential long term issues. They look kinda like a team marking time while preparing for future moves. (for those who may not know what “mark time” is, it’s marching in place. You march without going anywhere). And to think help is coming from the minors is, in my opinion, naive. One at a time is typical. We’ve already seen 4
This is going to be an interesting 4 months.
was a bad last 3 games, we’ll play better….162 this thing is a grind….enjoy the ride.
Many fans are saying this or that, it’s a small sample, certain players just need more time, naysayers are morons, it’s just my opinion, etc. Sounds like a repetitive theme in these articles.
Winning the division is what we all want, but it’s clear by last year’s post season performance getting to the post season tournament is what must be accomplished. Last year the Phillies represented the NL from a wildcard spot and an 87-75 regular season record.
The Dodgers do indeed have an oddly constructed roster with Peralta and Heyward seemingly to be redundant players. Muncy has to start hunting fastballs to drive (especially ones that are center-cut) instead of BBs. The loss of Lux and his speed has impacted team play. Rojas seems to be a good team leader, great glove with a so-so bat. His relief role would have played well, but his starting gig on this team maybe not so much.
Is Betts a superstar? He is paid like one, but I would suggest like MT has said in previous posts, that he is not. Would like some more power from Vargas and Outman seems to be a real MLB player. Grove is not ready and should be replaced by someone before his next start. When will Gonsolin be ready? Can Syndergaard learn to put hitters away with some off speed stuff because his 92 mph straight FB looks very hittable.
Help is on the way for an under performing BP with the likes of Nelson, Reyes, Freyserian and Hudson. Patience Dodger fans…….. the Dodgers will be OK.