This Feels Like Rock Bottom
Just a few days ago, the Dodgers were 5-2, and now three games and 29 runs given up later, they sit at 5-5 – all of the losses coming at the hands of the Diamondbacks, who may or may not be a .500 club. Regardless of what their ultimate record may be, they’re young and exciting……
Just a few days ago, the Dodgers were 5-2, and now three games and 29 runs given up later, they sit at 5-5 – all of the losses coming at the hands of the Diamondbacks, who may or may not be a .500 club. Regardless of what their ultimate record may be, they’re young and exciting… and dangerous. Predictably and right upon cue, Dodger fans are moaning and groaning and lamenting how bad this team is. Personally, I cannot remember a Dodger pitching staff giving up 29 runs in a weekend. I’m sure it has happened – I just can’t remember it. If this is Rock Bottom, then I’m happy. Things could be so much worse.
The World Champion Astros are 4-6, while the runners-up are 3-6. The TB Rays are 9-0, and the Milwaukee Brewers are 7-2. No one is printing the tickets. The Dodgers are ten games into the season, and some fans are throwing in the towel. Unless the team is 0-10, then the only fans who are giving up on the season are the ones who (a) want to drive themselves crazy; or (b) are already crazy! Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail, and you will be neither.
There is reason to believe that things will turn around. You can be a glass-half-full person and talk about how bad David Peralta, Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas, Max Muncy, and Austin Barnes are, or you could be a glass-half-full person and talk about how the two rookies are doing well after ten games, both offensively and defensively, how JDM is starting to hit like he is supposed to, or how Jason Heyward is raising some eyebrows. A glass-half-empty person will talk about how suddenly Ferguson, Jackson, Thor, Bazooka, Almonte, Vesia, and Grove all have ERA’s of 4.5 to 14.73, while a glass-half-full person will talk about how Shelby Miller has pitched five scoreless innings or how Evan Phillips has been nails, and that May, Urias, and Bickford have all looked very good.
The truth is, the glass is not half full or half empty. The glass is refillable, and the Dodgers can refill it at any time, whether that be from the Minors, such as replacing Mike Grove with Gavin Stone or Ryan Pepiot (not sure where he is in recovering from his injury) or trading for another player or two with their prospect collateral in a month or two. The only thing imminent is that Grove might not get another start (or he may). It’s still very early, and if this is “rock bottom,” we are indeed fortunate. For the record, I am not saying it is.
The minor league shuttle for pitchers could start up as early as today. At the end of Spring Training, I wondered aloud if Yency Almonte had an injury, and I still am not convinced. Yency is out of options, but Vesia isn’t. Yency could be an IL candidate. There is not a shortage of other candidatesBryan Hudson has struck out 10 in 5 IP. Wander Suero has a 1.80 ERA, while Nick Robertson has a 1.50 and V-Gon sits at 2.45. Jake Reed, Jimmy Nelson, and Daniel Hudson could be ready soon. Of course, Tony Gonsolin is due back at any time. These are all MLB arms, and they will likely get untracked.
Thor worries me the most, but the fact is: they could replace him with Gavin Stone and not miss a beat. A few days ago, many were saying that Jason Heyward was done. Hitting .300 with 3 HR, they are no longer saying that. Yes, it is a small sampling – which is exactly the point! Now, we are hearing that Max Muncy is a boat anchor and that he has never been able to play 3B. Over eight seasons, Max has started 173 games at 3B. How would you know? 3B has always been an afterthought for him. Let him focus on it for a couple of months, and you might feel differently. The Dodgers re-did their infield and the weather prevented it from really “setting.” Of course, if you don’t have your feet, you don’t have much, but only Phil Jones has picked up on that.
I am going to submit that if you were good enough to look at a player and say they are finished or just ready to get going, it would be something that you pull out of where the sun doesn’t shine. You aren’t that good – oh, you may think you are, but I’ll bet no one is paying you for your analysis. So, you make a guess based on what you are seeing or even think you are seeing. Sometimes we can see the same thing and have a different opinion. It’s all a matter of perspective and bias!
Muncy, Peralta, Taylor, Thompson, and others will not have the latitude that Cody Bellinger did last year. This runway is shorter…much shorter. The next 30 to 40 games will write the story, but no one knows what the story is, after just ten games. This may be rock bottom, but then again, maybe it’s not!
Who thinks Milwaukee is trading any pitchers or their SS right about now? Bryan Reynolds would be an idiot to sign for what Pittsburgh is offering. Freddie Freeman has only driven in two runs – do you think that is going to continue? There is so much left to figure out. We just have to watch and learn.
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Discussion (64)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Urias CY YOUNG put that in the bank.
And yes he will be a Dodger for life…….
Fun fact: Mookie’s incredible 1.078 OPS in 2018 followed his worst season, when his OPS was .803–acceptable for most players, but way below Mookie’s career OPS of .889. (The career 162-game average also computes to 127 runs scored, including 31 HRs.)
As Cassidy points out, Mookie finished #2 for MVP after he joined LA–and LED THE DODGERS TO THE 2020 WS CHAMPIONSHIP. Let’s also recall his dazzling postseason defense.
But what happened in ’21?
Well, Mookie missed 40 games due to injury–but still scored 93 runs and had an OPS of .854. Still made the all-star team, of course, His .854 OPS was his second worst since 2015.
Today’s game showed what a good game can do in a good sample size. Mookie lifted his BA to .300 and his OPS to .945. (Some say Mookie was robbed of another HR early this season by the interference of overzealous fan. Umps gave him a double instead.)
Anyway, if you review the body of Mookie’s work, I don’t think he’s a guy we need to worry about.
While Max was the big offensive star, how about that James Outman?
He picked up his third, another stolen base and another walk–his 8th, tying him with Max for second on the team. Outman ended the game with NL’s highest OPS among “qualified players” at 1.262, just ahead of possible future Dodger Bryan Reynolds. Ranked third is Will Smith at 1.155, and Freddie isn’t far back at 1.081. Mookie comes next on the Dodgers, followed by JDM and Max. Max’s BA is still below the Mendoza line, but the HRs lifted his OPS to an even .800.
And how about that Julio Urias?
The ace is now 3-0 (tied for ML lead in wins) with a 1.50 ERA and 20 Ks in 18 innings pitched.
Fun fact: Mookie’s incredible 1.078 OPS in 2018 followed his worst season, when his OPS was .803–acceptable for most players, but way below Mookie’s career OPS of .889. (The career 162-game average also computes to 127 runs scored, including 31 HRs.)
As Cassidy points out, Mookie finished #2 for MVP after he joined LA–and LED THE DODGERS TO THE 2020 WS CHAMPIONSHIP. Let’s also recall his dazzling postseason defense.
But what happened in ’21?
Well, Mookie missed 40 games due to injury–but still scored 93 runs and had an OPS of .854. Still made the all-star team, of course, His .854 OPS was his second worst since 2015.
Today’s game showed what a good game can do in a good sample size. Mookie lifted his BA to .300 and his OPS to .945. (Some say Mookie was robbed of another HR early this season by the interference of overzealous fan. Umps gave him a double instead.)
Anyway, if you review the body of Mookie’s work, I don’t think he’s a guy we need to worry about.
While Max was the big offensive star, how about that James Outman?
He picked up his third, another stolen base and another walk–his 8th, tying him with Max for second on the team. Outman ended the game with NL’s highest OPS among “qualified players” at 1.262, just ahead of possible future Dodger Bryan Reynolds. Ranked third is Will Smith at 1.155, and Freddie isn’t far back at 1.081. Mookie comes next on the Dodgers, followed by JDM and Max. Max’s BA is still below the Mendoza line, but the HRs lifted his OPS to an even .800.
And how about that Julio Urias?
The ace is now 3-0 (tied for ML lead in wins) with a 1.50 ERA and 20 Ks in 18 innings pitched.
Some said it was painful to watch Max at the plate and tonight with 2 outs and bases loaded a whole lot more found it painful watching Max at the plate. All were Giants fans though. Good seeing Max smile. Keep smiling Max.
It’s good to see Muncy have a great game.
Some people think it is September and this is what the Dodger roster will look like. I guarantee it will not. Pepiot and Gonsolin most likely out until at least June.
Ok the Bullpen limo ride !
Good to see Muncy have a great game. Maybe this is a sign of good times.
Has anyone heard anything about Rojas if he’s injured or if Doc has decided to go with Taylor for now just because?
And things got back to normal.
Sleeping well.
Fuck the Giants.
Big props to Vesia there. Hopefully he figured something out there
And now the bullpen rollercoaster.
Max who ! Couldn’t be happier for Mr. Muncy.
Every stat cited for 2023 is based on a small sample size.
It’s still very early and every projection is somewhat silly. As I’m writing, HRs by Mookie and Max have given the Dodgers a 4-0 lead–but it’s still early. Oh, now the Giants just scored. It’s only the 4th inning in this game,.
.In the 2023 season, we’re still in the first inning.
That said, it seems clear that this roster is a work in progress. Injuries could change everything, but it’s fun to make predictions, so here goes:
–The early success of Outman, a rookie, and Heyward, a veteran getting (mostly) paid by the Cubs, should make the lackluster Peralta expendable. The Dodgers will deal him for a prospect we’ve never heard of and eat half of Peralta’s salary. They’ll promote Luke William or Busch or Yonny from OKC.
–JDM will NOT play LF because there must be a reason the Dodgers haven’t pursued this obvious option. But he will get some rest to allow Will Smith to DH when Barnes catches. Heyward could get some turns at DH too when Trayce gets a start.
–Trayce will remain a mercurial feast-or-famine kind of hitter. He’ll still strike out a lot, but his power, defense and speed make him a fine 4th outfielder.
–Outman’s improvement will keep him on that runway. The knock on him was that he strikes out too much, but his plate discipline has improved.
–Mookie will continue to be damned with faint praise in LADT by people who quibble about what constitutes a
“superstar.” But at the end of the year, he will lead the league in runs scored, hit more than 30 HRs, win his seventh Gold Glove–possibly at 2B, if Vargas goes down with an injury. Or if Max does, and Vargas shifts to 3B. He’ll be in the Top Ten in MVP votes, perhaps the Top Five. And he’ll roll another 300 game, too.
Mookie Betts MVP voting.
16 AL MVP #2
17 AL MVP #6
18 AL MVP #1
19 AL MVP #8
20 NL MVP #2
21 NL MVP –
22 NL MVP #5
That says superstar to me. Bat and glove and teammate!
Take that, you Fruitcake Muncy Haters!
The Dodgers are currently #3 in MLB Power Ratings…
Tony Gonsolin, Ryan Pepiot and Daniel Hudson are not close to ready.
Jimmy Nelson may start a rehab assignment soon.
We’re favored tonight. -145. -1.5 runs. 8 runs O/U.
9:45 PM ET
Dodgers (5-5)
Giants (4-5)
SP Julio Urias L
2-0 1.50 ERA 12IP 12K
SP Logan Webb R
0-2 6.55 ERA 11IP 16K
Confirmed Lineup
2B Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Martinez R
RF J. Heyward L
CF James Outman L
LF D. Peralta L
SS Chris Taylor R
Partly-cloudy-day
1% Precipitation
55° Wind 11 mph Out
NO Dodger minor league games tonight
Horrific games to watch. As Dodger fans we haven’t been subjected to this kind of thing much, at least in recent memory.
Pitching depth is still our strength. I have no doubt that AF will be shuffling some players around in the next week or two. Hopefully Tony G will come back in decent form soon.
Stats really don’t matter much at this stage. I trust my eyes more, at least until we are at a point where we have a decent sample size. My eyes tell me that Freddie, JD, Vargas and Outman are having consistently good ABs. JD is striking out more than usual but he’s making solid contact. Vargas might be the toughest out on the team behind Freddie. We almost take Will Smith for granted. He plays baseball. And he’s really good at it. A lot of other pieces need to fall into place. Mookie will be Mookie. Look pretty bad for a couple weeks and then go on a massive tear. He’s due for few games of mashing.
Muncy is the one that is making me cringe. Much as he did last season. It’s too early to draw conclusions but his willingness to take strikes only plays when he’s drawing a lot of walks and limited his strikeouts. Right now he’s a strikeout machine. He needs to have better ABs. And be more aggressive. I think his defense will come around. But I can’t help but get flashbacks to 2022 with how he’s swinging the bat. Tough to watch.
All said, I’m not worried but I’ve had enough of watching our pitching implode. We need to get back to losing 3 to 2, when we do lose. Those games are boring and frustrating, but at least they aren’t gut wrenching and embarrassing. Watched the game at the local sports bar with a group of buddies before everybody went off to do their Easter things. One of them is a Padre fan. Always lovely to give him endless ammunition to talk crap. And I just had to take it. We sucked this weekend.
It happens.
As Badger points out, we lost 3 of 4 games while scoring 22 runs. Pitching is an issue. In 3 games we gave up 43 hits and 29 runs. The D-Backs also exposed our lack of holding runners and getting the baseball to the catchers before the bag is stolen. That is a common problem that we don’t stress and teach well. Arizona seems to be embracing putting the game in motion. They have 17 stolen bases. The Dodgers have 1 on the year. It’s an organizational philosophy. But it’s tough to steal bases when you’re down by 5 or 6 runs. Still, I’d like to see the organization use the speed we have more, when the situation calls for it.
I predicted this club will win 85 to 90 games. We’re going to see lots of prospects get time in the Big Leagues. And that’s okay, by me. We need to give the youth movement a chance, get under the cap and not panic to acquire expensive replacements this season. Bite the bullet, see what we have and do the best we can to develop and evaluate the young guys. Player development is a lot better than trying to buy a team. But I believe it’s a time for transition, no matter how painful for the fan base.
I’m happy with Outman and Vargas. Yet some are now complaining about their lack of power. Let these kids settle in as major leaguers and appreciate that they look like the real deal. I’m confident they will gain power and skills as they mature.
We all may need to reevaluate our expectations as the season develops and be patient with a youth movement. It’s especially tough for a fan base that’s used to winning the division every year.
This is why I reject the 1900s theory (living in the 1900s) that a SS needs to be defense first without the bat. When you have question marks about LF, Muncy, Taylor, and I know I’m going to get blow back for this, Vargas. You don’t just give a guy like Rojas (no bat) SS. Yes Lux was suppose to be the SS and yes Taylor is barely doing better than Rojas with the bat. But I’m talking about the debate we had in the offseason, Lux or Rojas at SS. And also it’s why now, I hope Taylor gets back to being the Taylor before last season and grabs the starting SS job. Because I know what Rojas will do with the bat and that’s basically nothing.
Starting pitching:
If Sydergaard still is a problem, let’s say in a month or so or whenever, there is Gavin Stone and I hope the powers that be choose him at that time. But then what if another starting pitcher becomes a problem or gets injured and is expected to be out for awhile? There’s top prospect Miller but is he ready? I’m not high on Pepiot, I think he’s AT BEST (but I have my doubts) a 4th or 5th starter. Uh oh, I said 4th or 5th, just a little poke Mark, but I wish you would fully come around about Outman. I’ve always believed Grove was a trade chip and nothing else. It looks like that’s the case or maybe not.
The bullpen:
I didn’t want to talk about this during the offseason because it seems like I do every offseason. Yes the bullpen was great last season (until it wasn’t in the playoffs) with the help of Martin, who was acquired at the trade deadline. But it seems like Doc uses Graterol as the work horse of the bullpen and that’s dangerous in close games. Because his career stats suggest he’s a roogy. Maybe he’ll put that behind him or maybe not.
Some believe Ferguson is the be all end all, but he’s not (stats). He’s usefull though, but I wouldn’t want him in close games just like Graterol.
Bickford was good in 2021 and then in 2022 he wasn’t. Which Bickford is going to show up this year?
Then there’s the definite question mark guys. Miller and Jackson.
There’s a few guys in the bullpen that are nails that Doc can use in close games. Phillips, Almonte (not so far), Vesia (not so far) and Hudson when he returns. These guys right here will be the key to the success of the bullpen.
All of this sounds like I think the sky is falling, but I’m not. I’m just pointing out some things. AF has prospects that he can trade for help and I could be wrong about some things. So don’t take this as though I think the sky is falling, I’m not. AF has been a great GM and he’ll figure out some things and some things might fall into place.
Just my 2 cents.
I am just waiting for the trade deadline and man what would it take to get Addames, Yelich, and Burnes to improve this team. It gets you a starting shortstop that could lead off and you move Betts to hit third in the lineup behind Freeman. Then you get a leftfielder who can play everyday and help the rookie in centerfield who should be playing every day. And oh go get the number three starter in a playoffs game in Burnes so you have Urias Kershaw and Burnes and then May, Syndeguard rotation. Until that happens this team will sputter having different lineups each nite and a bad shortstop and thirdbaseman that’s what I am waiting for three player Brewers and who do you want?
I am not going to sweat a three game losing streak in April. This stuff happens in September, different story. Just take care of the frippen Giants. Them I hate losing to.
News From Internet:
Baseball America ($$$$$) looks at 50 prospects that MLB scouts cited.
Open on www.baseballamerica.comhttps://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/50-prospects-standing-out-to-scouts-in-2023-spring-training/“The biggest takeawy from the calls (with scouts) is that the Dodgers have a fountain of a farm system that spits out talented prospects with the regularity and ferocity of old Faithful”
Martinus, Sam Munoz, Chris Campos, Wrobleski, Jordan Leasure and Liranzo ALL make the list.
Ben Clemens on steals for this season, Dodgers get a couple of mentions:
Open on blogs.fangraphs.comhttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-early-returns-on-steals-are-overwhelming/Jay Jaffe chat:
Steve: Best for this year…Grove, Dodd, or Elder?
Jay Jaffe: I was impressed with what I saw of Michael Grove last night, but I’ll go with Dodd, entirely based on Eric Longenhagen’s prospect grade. he’s a 50 FV via what Eric ran last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-starters-pistol-update-to-the-top-100-pr…) whereas the other two are 40+ guys.
Marko from Tropoja: IMO, Kershaw and Trout were surefire Hall of Famers on opening day of their tenth seasons. Who, if anyone, could be the next person on that list? Mookie (2023 is his tenth season)? Ohtani? Soto?
Jay Jaffe: Mookie is 15th in JAWS (56.2/50.4/53.3), between Gwynn and Evans, ahead of Suzuki, Winfield, and Guerrero already, so I’d call him sure-fire. Once Ohtani gets to 10 years (2027), he’ll have my vote if he’s still able to do both roles competently. Soto is much further off, with only two seasons of 5.0 WAR or better. Pretty normal for a guy who’s in his age-24 season.
Mr. Burrito: Jay — Love your work. Dumb question: The Dodgers are swapping out vets for rookies/reclamation projects off of one of the better regular season teams of all time. Is there any historical precedence for this? Has there been a team that won anything close to 111 games and, in the next season, tossed out two SPs and three regular position players? If so, how’d that go?
Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s any recent precedent for this at all. Seems like an A’s level teardown but I’d have to look more closely to see how much turnover there was… Maybe the 1998 Marlins — but the Marlins were much more aggressive, they weren’t keeping the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Julio Urías around.
Farhandrew Zaidman: Michael Grove is just the new Ross Stripling/Mitch White? 4 average to plus pitches, swingman type guy?
Jay Jaffe: That seems about right. Not a high ceiling but useful, light workloads, trips to the bullpen and Triple-A while he still has options, would be more secure in another organization
Fangraphs has added a pair of hard-throwing prospects Dodgers to their list:
Open on www.fangraphs.comhttps://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board?org=ladJake Pilarski – 13th (a 70 on Pilarski’s FB and SL!!!)
Juan Morillo – 33rd
Jay Jaffe on the Dodgers outfield:
Open on blogs.fangraphs.comhttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-new-look-outfield-has-been-a-hit-so-far/“Van Scoyoc has worked with Heyward to lower his hands and move them further away from his body, reduce his movement once the pitcher starts his delivery, and find a more direct path to the ball. “We worked on his lower half, his legs, how he uses his back side, hand position, bat path, sequencing – all of it… getting [him] into a position where he’s more balanced, more athletic, holds the ground with his back leg,” Van Scoyoc told the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett recently.”
Ben Clemens Chat:
Guest: The dodgers drew 23 walks in their series vs the Diamondbacks and walked a single opponent. And they split the series. What a funny sport
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I watched a fair number of those games b/c the late windows over the weekend weren’t packed and I find both the Dodgers and DBacks really fun. I think that the Dodgers role players looked pretty dang good, which was the big worry around them this year. Those are the breaks of baseball, but I am not sure I expected Outman to look like ‘oh yeah this guy just seems like a good major league hitter’
Shane: Since 1950, 3 of the top 4 seasons by ERA- are the 2020-2022 Dodgers. Is this perhaps the greatest three season pitching stretch in baseball history (albeit with 2020 being abbreviated)? Do we appreciate how significant of an accomplishment this is and just how good this pitching staff has been?
Ben Clemens: It’s really remarkable. Their BABIP allowed was just insanity. They just turned batted balls into outs at an unprecedented rate. We’ll see if they can keep that going but it’s truly a dominant stretch
Baseball America ($$$$) looks at the most talented MILB teams:
Open on www.baseballamerica.comhttps://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-best-teams-in-the-minors-on-opening-day-2023/OKC makes the list
Don Szymborski Chat:
Farhandrew Zaidman: True or False: Dustin May is unhittable when he’s landing his breaking ball for strikes.
Dan Szymborski: True
JJ: Did you take any regular season wins over/under this year?
Dan Szymborski: Arizona over, Dodgers under
Additional numbers – Dodgers are 25th hitting RISP. They are 25th in “late and close” batting. They are 9th with 70 LOB in 10 games.
Their pitching has a team WHIP of 1.70 in “late and close” pitching and a BAA of .394 (third from the bottom).
Hard to win if you don’t knock runners in or hold tight leads.