Now that the smoke has cleared, we can see pretty clearly that things have changed. Let’s consider what has happened or likely will happen:
- Craig Kimbrel is gone (YAY);
- Justin Turner’s option was not picked up;
- Andrew Heaney is likely gone;
- David Price allegedly retired;
- Danny Duffy is likely gone;
- Jimmy Nelson is likely gone;
- Blake Treinen is not a factor in 2023;
- Chris Martin is on the market and could be re-signed or gone;
- Tommy Kahnle is on the market and could be re-signed or gone; and
- The great Clayton Kershaw will be back for one more year.
The Dodgers also have Yency Almonte, Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Alex Vesia, and Caleb Ferguson on the roster, giving them plenty of firepower in the bullpen. Daniel Hudson and Victor González are expected to make full recoveries after missing most of the 2022 season. Phil Bickford is still on the roster, as is Justin Bruihl (at least today). Mike Grove, Andre Jackson, and Ryan Pepiot all have MLB stuff. Then, there are Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Ronan Kopp, Nick Frasso, Carlos Duran, and Emmet Shehan… anyone of whom could make that “leap.” The bullpen will be fine…
I thought that Clayton Kershaw might want to finish his career at home in Dallas so he could be at home and experience pitching at home, but it has become pretty obvious that Clayton bleeds Dodger Blue and wants to end his career as the greatest Dodger Pitcher of all-time – as if he isn’t that already! 3,000 strikeouts are probably out of reach NEXT year, but 200 wins as a Dodger is extremely likely (he only needs three). Clayton Kershaw will go down in history as the greatest Dodger pitcher of all time.
The Dodgers did offer Tyler Anderson the Qualifying offer, and it is rumored that they’re trying to work out a multi-year deal (I would guess $45 Million/3-Years would be about right). He would return to the rotation along with Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin… providing rest is all Tony needs to recover (we simply have no idea at this point). However, Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot are all knocking on the door. You can make an argument for any of the three to make the rotation:
- Ryan Pepiot – He started seven games in 2022 and had a 3.47 ERA, striking out 42 batters in 36 innings. His problem is obvious – he also walked or hit 30 batters. He averaged 6.7 BB per 9 IP. The main thing keeping him out of the rotation is the walks. He possesses a great changeup to go with a good fastball, but for it to be effective, he has to throw strikes with the fastball. Easy to identify the “fix” – Not so easy to do. In Clayton Kershaw’s first 278 IP, he allowed 4.5 BB per 9 IP, and the next year, he dialed it back to 2.1. If Pepiot can do that (cut his walks in half), he will be a solid starter. Otherwise, he is destined for the bullpen.
- Bobby Miller – If you look at his ERA and look at him pitch, you will scratch your head because his 4.25 ERA in no way represents his pitching ability. His 1.198 WHIP is much better than his ERA. He averaged three walks per 9 IP. In 112 IP, he struck out 145. His 100 MPH fastball may be a little straight, but it is 100 MPH! He has five-plus pitches and a big starter-like body (6′ 5″/220 lbs). This is a guy (in my opinion) who will just suddenly turn into a monster overnight! It could be 2023… or later.
- Gavin Stone – He already is that monster! Gavin is a year older than Bobby Miller and, at 24, is “MLB Ready.” He does not possess a big “starters body” (neither did Pedro), but he is 6′ 1″ and 175. He started the year in 2022 at Great Lakes (25 IP), moved to Tulsa (73 IP), and finished at OKC (23 IP). Overall, he pitched 121 innings with a 1.48 ERA and 168 Strikeouts. He did walk 3.3 batters per 9 IP. I will not be surprised in the least if he is in the rotation very early in the season.
The Dodgers will likely be connected with Justin Verlander, but that ain’t happening… at least, I don’t see it. You can get Tyler Anderson for three years for what Justin Verlander wants for one year! If the Dodgers go into the season with Urias, Kershaw, May, Anderson, Gonsolin, Stone, Pepiot, and Miller all healthy, I cannot see Verlander (or any other free-agent pitcher) being on the team.
The Free Agents
If you watch (and believe) Trea Turner’s “Hype Video” narrated by Joe Hamm, you have to figure he will get at least a Billion Dollar Contract! This is where it all starts. The Dodger’s questions are what happens with Bellinger, Justin Turner, and Trea Turner? They have to be answered… and soon!
Arizona Fall League Championship Games
The Glendale Desert Dogs, led by Noelivi Marte and Andy Pages, won the “Play in” Game to the AFL Championship Game by beating the Peoria Javelinas 6-3. Pages was 2-3 with a double and 2 RBI to go with a walk. Pages hit #3, while Jose Ramos was the cleanup hitter (he went 0-4). Glendale will meet the Surprise Saguaros in the championship game Saturday at Scottsdale Stadium. The first pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET, live on the MLB Network and MLB.com. Marte was the best prospect of the four that the Reds received for Luis Castillo. Andy Pages hit .296 with 5 HR and 14 RBI (.904 OPS) in the AFL this fall.
As I write this, here is what is happening in Indianapolis:
Discussion (17)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I’m not too keen on the Starting Pitching market. You can get and old and / or often injured stud that hasn’t had great postseason success or a reclamation project. I prefer the latter considering the Prior’s track record. Clayton, Urias, May and Gonsolin are a very good start and they have a QO attached to Anderson. They could just go with Grove and Pepiot if they can’t bring in Anderson. No use worrying about starting pitching until Anderson rejects his QO.
I just want a really good right handed hitter between Freeman and Muncy.
I thought Andre Jackson looked pretty damn good after he went on the developmental list. He has great stuff. He needs to focus on the pen and forget about starting.
Houston Astros were the best team in 22.
I’m sticking with my 0% chance of signing Trea. 99% for JT. 82% for Beli. 88% for Anderson. And PLEEEEASE my post about trying to win 90 games was a joke.!!!
I think Trea Turner will get close to $400 Million… You still in?
I agree with everything you said Mark about the pitching above this quote and I agree with some of this.
“Phil Bickford is still on the roster, as is Justin Bruihl (at least today). Mike Grove, Andre Jackson, and Ryan Pepiot all have MLB stuff. Then, there are Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Ronan Kopp, Nick Frasso, Carlos Duran, and Emmet Shehan… anyone of whom could make that “leap.” The bullpen will be fine…”
Bickford and Pepiot will be on the 40 man roster as you said. I see Bruihl, Grove, Jackson as trade chips and there is no room on the 40 man roster when factoring in others and the fact that the pitching should be stacked without those guys. Then the minor league pitchers, some of those guys are still in the lower levels of the minor leagues and will not be a factor in 2023 plus there won’t be any room for them. But I am high on Miller, Sheehan, and especially Stone. Those 3 could/probably will be a factor in 2023 especially Stone. And yes the bullpen will be fine and that is coming from someone that has bitched about the bullpen in the past for good reasons.
And I agree with what you said about Pepiot, Miller, Stone.
———————————————————————————–
I do think the Dodgers will go all in on Trea Turner and outbid everyone to keep him. How many players can hit for average and power and have the speed Turner has?
As I said I think yesterday, the free agent position player market kind of sucks, therefore the ones that stand out will get huge contracts. Therefore I think the Dodgers should keep Trea Turner obviously and also Bellinger and J. Turner. Leaving LF as the only hole to be filled and I’d like to see Outman get his opportunity in LF. But I also would like for Friedman to pursue Judge and if he lands Judge then either Bellinger or Outman to the bench, preferably Bellinger.
Betts
T Turner
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Outman
J Turner
Lux
Bellinger
Or
Betts
T Turner
Freeman
Judge
Smith
Muncy
Outman
J Turner
Lux
I almost forgot this. Thanks for the reminder, Phil Jones.
In 3 months of so, Spring Training will start for the pitchers and catchers. The pitchers will be starting to get stretched out and build arm strength over the next 7 months so they will be capable of going their required 5 innings and 85 pitches by the post season.
Bob Feller enlisted in the US Navy one day after Pearl Harbor in 1941. He didn’t pitch professionally for the next 1,428 days. When he took the mound for the first time back on August 24, 1945, in Cleveland, Rapid Robert threw a complete game, 4 hitter to beat Detriot 4 to 2. He reported he “felt strong at the end of the game”. He was well rested. That was well before pitch counts but my guess is that he threw more than 85 pitches.
God Bless all of our Veterans. Thank you for your service.
Expected Clayton Kershaw to return.
Don’t expect the Dodgers to land an Aaron Judge or Justin Verlander.
I think they would like to bring back Trea Turner. But I don’t expect him back. Gavin Lux will probably be at short. Not sure how they replace Trea’s production.
Justin Turner gets re-signed.
Tyler Anderson comes back on a multi-year deal.
The young pitchers will play a big role in 2023. The starting rotation will be very good and so and so will the bullpen.
Cody Bellinger is back in center. His bat will get better.
The best team doesn’t always win, but the Dodgers will again win a lot of games. I actually think the starting pitching will be better. I do expect them to add to the bullpen.
All reports say they are talking to JT about a one-year deal. But we will see. Cubs have Bellinger on their radar according to a blurb I read on Yahoo sports. They consider him a GG CF and the same at 1st.
I want this in 2023:
1 Julio
2 Burnes
3 Bauer
4 Kershaw
5 May
Stone
Miller
I may be in the minority, but my goal when playing was to win every game! Did it happen? No, but my high school football team (Jupiter FL), of which I was captain, was undefeated my senior year (1961). It is still the only undefeated football team in Jupiter History! Play to win. Don’t set a goal of winning 90 games, or even 112 games. Play to win every game. It won’t happen, but let that be your goal.
Yes 111 wins didn’t prove anything. So Our goal for next year should be to win about 90 games so we have better chance in October. OK so Kershaw back. Trea I say 0% chance to sign. That’s the odds I gave us for signing Freeman. Bellinger back. JT back at reduced rate. These are predictions based on what I think will happen, not what Many think SHOULD happen. Judge no, Verlander no.
Our issue is October. We don’t need April-September pitchers. All or nothing on starting pitching!
I see the Dodgers acquiring at least one more veteran SP via the FA market. Eflin, Grienke, Taillon, Stripling, a return of Danny Duffy, someone of that caliber to round out the rotation and to fill a gap while the likes of Stone, Pepiot, Miller etc. further develop.
I do not see Bellinger getting tendered, but if he does I wouldn’t be horribly disappointed, but he needs a bounce back that might be aided by the no shift rule. Joc got a QO so Farhan must think he will also improve with the no shift. $19.6 million for JP? Farhan has money to burn………….
I’m all in on Dodger youth movement. What did a 111 win season get us, NOTHING?
Global warming!
Who’s the guy who said Kersh was going to retire LAST year. If we sign Bellinger then no Judge. And I think TT ends up in Philly. Do you like our young pitching better or the young position plsyers? So I think the strategy is to go in as a wild card team. It hasnt been working going in as the best team!