Payroll and Roster Planning – Still Early Edition

The first cuts are in and The Dodgers are letting go around the fringes of the payroll by not exercising club options on some lackluster players, insurance policies and one fan favorite.  They’ve seemingly cut ties with total bust, Danny Duffy, mostly bust Jimmy Nelson, an underperforming clubhouse pet Hanser Alberto and roster stalwart Justin Turner.  All of this adds up to about a $26 million dollars in savings and 5 more open roster spots.  As of now, the roster stands at 32 players.

Active Payroll: $98,500,000 – Players Under Contract – 7 Players

Est. Arbitration Salaries:  $56,000,000 – 12 Players

Pre-Arbitration Players $4,000,000 – 13 Players

Suspended Salaries:  $32,000,000 – 1 Player

Trevor Bauer

Active Payroll (Players under Contract): $98,500,000 –7 Players

Est. Arbitration Salaries:  $56,000,000 – 12 Players

Est. Pre-Arbitration Salaries: $3,975,000 – 13 Players

Suspended Salaries:  $32,000,000 – 1 Player

Projected Total Payroll:  $190,475,000

2023 Tax Threshold  $233,000,000

CBT Payroll room 42,525,000

2022 Total Payroll $274,343.119

As of now the Dodgers have roughly $40 Million to spend and the current news is that Clayton Kershaw’s contract is nearing completion. With Clayton coming back, the roster stands at 33 players, not counting Trevor Bauer. Of course, the number or players will increase once the Dodgers decide who to protect from the Rule 5 draft.

Rule 5 Eligible Players

The Dodgers have 15 minor league players who will be eligible for the Rule – 5 draft. They will need to add them to the 40 man roster or risk losing them to an acquiring team. The caveat is that any player that’s lost to the draft must remain on the 40 man roster or Injured list for the entire season, or the player must be offered back to the original team.

There’s 4 big names on the list of Rule 5 eligible players this year.  When looking at the pitchers, it’s obvious to see they’re lacking in top level talent, or anyone realistically close to contributing at the major league level.  It also seems that the Dodgers tend to protect fewer players than most fans would want them to protect for varying reasons and I can’t recall any that got away and made an immediate impact for the claiming team.

They will obviously add Diego Cartaya, Michael Bush and Andy Pages to the 40 man ahead of the rule 5 draft and I would say they should also add Jose Ramos, but he only played as high as A+ last season.  There’s also a case for Ryan Ward, but it’s doubtful they’ll protect 5 guys.  The smart bet is that they protect Pages, Cartaya and Busch only.

Michael Busch 2B

Diego Cartaya C

Andy Pages OF

This brings our roster to 36, Kershaw makes 37 and Bauer would make 38.

Current Depth Chart on the 40-man roster

Starting Pitching

Julio Urias – L

Clayton Kershaw – L

Anthony Gonsolin – R

Dustin May – R

Michael Grove – R 

Andre Jackson – R

Ryan Pepiot – R

Walker Buehler – R – Disabled list, possibly out for the season

Trevor Bauer  – R- Suspended

Relief Pitching

Daniel Hudson – R

Caleb Ferguson – L

Yency Almonte – R

Brusdar Graterol – R

Evan Phillips  – R

Phil Bickford – R

Justin Bruihl – L

Victor Gonzalez – L 

Evan Phillips – R

Alex Vesia – L

Blake Treinen – R – Disabled list, possibly out for the season – Apparently went under the knife on Friday to repair his shoulder (Labrum/Rotary Cuff). Recovery time is 10 months, so it’s likely he won’t be pitching for us all season next year.

Catchers

Will Smith – R

Austin Barnes – R

Diego Cartaya – R

Infielders

Freddie Freeman – L

Max Muncy – L

Gavin Lux – L

Edwin Rios – L

Eddys Leonard – R 

Jorbit Vivas – L

Michael Busch – L

Miguel Vargas – R

Outfielders

Mookie Betts – R

Cody Bellinger – L

Trayce Thompson – R

James Outman – L

Lucas Williams – R

Chris Taylor – R

Andy Pages – R

Now we’ll go back to the cap space and look at needs. 

CBT Payroll room 42,525,000 – Minus Clayton’s contract

Suspended Salaries:  $32,000,000

If we don’t pay Bauer’s salary because he’s suspended or traded, we’ll have about 70M to spend on improving the team if we want to dip a toe under the cap to reset penalties.  We can kick that can down the road for another year and go ahead and sign a free agent while keeping in mind that Trevor’s contract will come off the books next year.

The Dodgers also offered qualifying offers to Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson.  Trea will be certain to decline and Anderson might just accept.  That will be $19.65 M leaving just over $22M for the remaining payroll spend to stay under the cap.  Just about enough to sign JT and CK?  Can they spend Trevor’s money on a big bat, or two marginal ones?  If Trevor comes back, they’ll have a very full staff, if he doesn’t, they’ll have the same 5 they had at the end of the season and a ton of depth in the upper minors.

Now that we know where we stand, what are your ideas on how to spend the $42M to $74M and what is the 25 man roster that you’d come up with?

It sure looks like to me that Justin’s a goner.  Their best prospect plays the same position and they have two others (Both Left Handed Bats) that can play 3rd base with Rios and Muncy.  Perhaps Vargas will be working on his 2B skills or LF skills in the offseason. 

Right now there’s a lot of bad infielders and outfielders taking up roster space.  They also have some sunken money with Blake Treinen with an ill-advised extension during a season where he barely pitched, and will possibly not pitch again for this club.

During the Hot Stove, we’ll hear that the Dodgers are in on everyone including all the shortstops and Japanese import Kodai Senga. However, the roster payroll says and open roster spots say otherwise. There is some wiggle room, especially if you consider they’re a long ways from last year’s payroll total, but the roster doesn’t have a lot of open spots especially considering that Stone or Miller might be a likely add to the rotation at some point.

My guess is the Dodgers will go over the cap this coming season, mostly due to the fact that Trevor’s contact keeps them in limbo and there’s a large need for a right handed bat. Mookie, Smith, Taylor, Vargas, Thompson and newly acquired Lucas Williams are the only right handed hitter currently on the 40 man that have any shot at being on the 26 man roster. This amounts to 1 full time player and a rookie, ouch! The lack of right handed hitting has been a signature for this team for years now. I’m amazed that AF still hasn’t addressed this.

Bill Plunkett reported on Friday that…

Beyond the quartet of free agents, Friedman and Gomes indicated the team does “feel good” about Gavin Lux as an internal option to replace Turner at shortstop. Lux was a shortstop throughout his amateur career and for the first few years in the minors before the Dodgers moved him to second base with Seager at the major-league level. …

Additionally, the Dodgers could use Chris Taylor at shortstop and prospect Jacob Amaya “can certainly handle it defensively and his offense is developing.”

“There are a lot of options externally and we have good options internally,” Friedman said. “So we get to wade through that market and figure out what ultimately makes the most sense.”