I cannot believe the level of disrespect that is being rained down upon Miguel Rojas. Well, the disrespect is not coming from people inside of baseball. It is coming from the common fan. Before I go any further, let me explain who the “common fan” is. The common fans comprise 68% of people today. Most people (about 68 percent) have an IQ between 85 and 115. Only a small fraction of people have a very low IQ (below 70) or a very high IQ (above 130). So, the common fan is a person with an IQ of between 85 and 115.
At LADT, we are blessed to have way more people above the 115 IQ threshold than below the 85 IQ threshold, but occasionally some fall through the cracks. I apologize for that. Occasionally, some totally go off the rails every now and then. Notice, I did not divulge which side I am on… that may explain why I go off the rails now and again.
Conventional Wisdom is what the people on the Left Side of the Curve cling to, which is why conventional wisdom is usually wrong. People with conventional wisdom have no vision. They just have sight. They see what was or what is, not what can be. They see that Miguel Rojas had the worst year of his Marlins career in 2022 (injury related) and cannot see beyond that.
Let’s look at the Offensive Players that left and one statistic that everyone ignores:
- Cody Bellinger – 504 AB/150 Strikeouts
- Trea Turner – 652 AB/131 Strikeouts
- Joey Gallo – 117 AB/57 Strikeouts
- Edwin Rios – 86 AB/36 Strikeouts
That’s a lot of Certain Outs last season with their strikeouts. Of course, the Dodgers still have a few players who strike out a lot, led by Max Muncy and Chris Taylor, but all of them have elite OB percentages (except CT3). Miguel Vargas and Miguel Rojas combined, both struck out less than Cody Bellinger. I am not convinced that James Outman will make the team next year. He strikes out too much.
The Top Six (my top 6) of the Dodgers lineup may strike out a lot, but they get on base a lot too. Their OB%, SLB%, and OPS% are elite. The Dodgers’ 7 & 8 Hitters were what cost them their season. The bottom part of the lineup struck out way too much.
- With a strikeout, nothing happens.
- With a strikeout, runners do not generally move up.
- A strikeout is a dead end.
The Miguels do not strike out a lot. They keep the rally moving. They make contact.. and with the new shift rules that may be a really important thing. Strikeouts kill a rally. That is part of the reason why the Dodgers would either have a ton of hits and runs… or very few. It was feast or famine. Chris Tylor also struck out way too much. He hit 10 HR and struck out 160 times. If he had hit 30 or 40 HR, that might have been acceptable, but he didn’t – which is why he may be traded.
Andrew Friedman knows that the Dodgers need to cut down on the strikeouts. There may be more trades or signings, but with the new rules, strikeouts are not as much appreciated. AF is not done, but the deadline is the Trade Deadline, not Spring Training… which, BTW starts in 34 days. Let’s Ride!
Patience Grasshoppers and Low IQ Types… like me!
Discussion (27)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Andrew McCutchen re-signed with the Pirates for $5 Million. The Dodgers were talking to him , but they were trying to steal him for $2 Million. They will be under the salary cap (Luxury Tax)! I guarantee it!
Some are suggesting that Outman and Thompson are going to platoon. I don’t see how that can happen because Outman is no doubt going to hit RHP and Thompson had reverse splits last year and has reverse splits for his career. So that doesn’t make any sense. It would make more sense for Thompson to platoon with Taylor but I don’t see that happening either. Thompson will be the 4th outfielder. To me it seems like the powers that be are going to have Outman start without a platoon and see how it goes and apparently Vargas too. Also why Outman in LF? He’s more athletic than the rest of the outfielders besides maybe Betts. He’s got CF written all over him. But I’m not picky about defense so whatever.
I say apparently about Vargas starting because I think Vargas needs more time in AAA and I don’t mean a full year, it just depends. But it’s a moot point beccause he’s going to be a starter and what better option do the Dodgers currently have, none. I think he will struggle for at least 2.5 months right away and then who knows.
To me it seems like things are set unless there is a trade:
C Smith
1B Freeman
2B Muncy
SS Lux
3B Vargas
RF Betts
CF Outman
LF Taylor
DH Martinez
Without any platoons and unless injuries happen in spring training.
My 2 cents.
Fine go with Taylor and Thompson. You guys seem fine with those two and Betts in the outfield. Yeah! Dodgers win World Series and don’t do anything this year. Just wait I bet they do make a trade.
Now my ideas are dumb.
Why would you expect the Pirates to ask for nothing less than the moon? The focus should not be to offer them the moon, but try to figure out their version of Mount Everest in terms of cost. Pun intended!
I still think some how the Dodgers think they need more. In order to compete for a world series. If there thinking?
Let’s play two or three rookies in a lineup this year. I just don’t see the Dodgers doing that.
They have always liked having a lineup that can hit. Now, I might be wrong and Outman and Vargas and they are amazing. But I think they need a everyday outfielder with Betts. I just don’t think Taylor, Thompson, or Duggar are the stars that people would want to go see. I see these guys as defensive guys. Who are there to give guys a day off. So, that’s why I suggest a Bryan Reynolds, or a Alek Thomas, or a Tyler O’Neil. Anyone of these guys would be an every day starter in the lineup. With of course Betts Freeman Muncy and Smith and oh JD Martinez.
That’s my opinion on what the Dodgers should do. And in years passed the Dodgers have done that. They traded a bunch of guys to then become legit world series contenders. So, we will see if they do that this year.
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, L.A.’s current plan is for Rojas to serve as a utility infielder, bouncing between short, second, and third. The mostly unspoken part of that plan is that Rojas would provide insurance in case Gavin Lux struggles defensively at shortstop.
Rojas says “My main focus is play shortstop, to play second base, and to play third base, to play first base … wherever they need me, I’ll be ready to help. You guys know that I came up in ’14 and I played different positions and nothing has changed on that side.”
Wow did they delete my messages to Old Bear. Man he needs to be told he isn’t always right. So, I told him off and they deleted it. Wow. Hey, I go on here to spread the news about the Dodgers. And say what they should do. Old Bear is worried about money. When do the Dodgers worry about money or the Yankees or the Mets. If they want a guy on there team. They go and get that player. It isn’t like we are fans of the Pirates or Marlins or As. Who don’t have money. Watch Money Ball the movie. The good teams spend money to get the good players from teams that can’t keep their players. Now watch guys Old Bear will argue how I am wrong. Just because he hates every post I put up. And you know what. Dam right I will keep posting.
The Dodgers are in agreement with starter Julio Urías on a $14.25MM salary for the 2023 season, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The sides avoid a hearing for the left-hander’s final season of arbitration eligibility.
I had a recent post deleted. Why?
Have some medical appointments coming up. So I won’t be on here part of next week. Spring training a little over a month away.
Bear, I am going to defend those that are attacked. When you say “what eats at me is your bad grammar” you are disregarding your total lack of ability to understand how to write a paragraph.
The purpose of a paragraph is to express a speaker’s thoughts on a particular point in a clear way that is unique and specific to that paragraph. In other words, paragraphs shouldn’t be mixing thoughts or ideas. When a new idea is introduced, generally, a writer will introduce a new paragraph.
Putting white space between paragraphs helps readers. Mixing many unrelated subjects into a long paragraph is for one thing poor grammar not to mention hard to read.
Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
Information concerning player salary arbitration figures are posted online on MLB Rumors and other sites as well.
Dodgers, Julio Urias Avoid Arbitration
By Anthony Franco | January 13, 2023 at 2:32pm CDT
The Dodgers are in agreement with starter Julio Urías on a $14.25MM salary for the 2023 season, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The sides avoid a hearing for the left-hander’s final season of arbitration eligibility.
Dodgers avoided arbitration with Trayce Thompson, 1.45 mil, Caleb Ferguson, 1.1 mil, Will Smith, 5.25, and Walker Buehler, 8.1 mil. They still are negotiating with Almonte, Graterol, Phillips, Urias and Gonsolin. Dustin May settled for a little over a million. Soto got 23 mil from the Padres. In case anyone wonders where I got this information, it is posted on MLBTR. They have an arbitration tracker that lists the arbitration eligible players on each team. Dodgers also agreed to a 14.25 million dollar deal with Julio Urias. Padres avoided arbitration with Josh Hader, and the Phillies and Rhys Hoskins agreed on a deal.
It’s only morning and there are already two posts which epitomize why this blog is so much fun.
1. None of this is thought provoking. It’s pure fantasy…..This is reality…
2. Says right on Yard Bark this morning. …. Take that and ponder it…. because it’s eating at you I was right.
Says right on Yard Bark this morning. Dodgers looking to trade for a corner outfielder. They mention these names; Brian Reynolds, Alan Kelenci from Seattle, Dylan Carlson St Louis, and Alek Thomas Arizona. So Old Bear? Guess Bradley was pretty close in saying. The Dodgers don’t want to go into the season with Taylor and Thompson as there starters. They want a hitter. Didn’t I say that.
The Rojas trade clarifies a lot of things for me. While we no doubt will see a lot of moving around with players and positions, I believe the team’s goal is to field a lineup similar to this:
C–Smith [Barnes as back-up]
1B–Freeman [He will play every day]
2B–Muncy [This and 3B are the most unsettled positions but I think we want Vargas full-time somewhere]
SS–Lux [Rojas is a good back-up option, especially in the long-term if Lux can’t hack it]
3B–Vargas [The next core position stud–let’s give him a home]
LF–Taylor [$15m reasons for him to start every day]
CF–Outman/Trayce [Make it a competition this ST]
RF–Betts [Could bail out CF or 2B in a pinch]
DH–Martinez [Position: batter’s box–didn’t see the field in 2021]
Okay, I’m game.
Why is the 800 pound gorilla in the room the luxury tax? Why is this such a big deal?
Did I miss the press release? Did Friedman or Kasten make a big announcement that the Dodgers must get under the tax threshold? Not that I recall. Everybody seems to embrace this as some kind of crisis. But is it?
A few writers have suggested this is all about Trevor Bauer and his $22.5 million chunk of dead money. Don’t like that one. How about the pursuit of Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto in 2024. What exactly is this based on — the need to get under the tax line. As far as I’m aware, the only two comments that may have led to this is Friedman’s comment that carrying a payroll this high is not sustainable. But he says that or something similar every year. Or maybe it’s Kasten’s comment about a youth movement because the Dodgers have a lot of players on the brink of major leagues.
What we have here is a whole lot of assumptions pretty much based on interpretation of a few words here and there.
Not to toss a wrench into all this, but the Dodgers tried to sign Justin Verlander to a two year deal at $40 million per season. Wait. If they had done that deal, LA would blown through the tax threshold, right.
Now Mark mostly offers sound trade thoughts. Okay, some of you may disagree, but they are within the ball park of logic and common sense.
But Mark’s trade proposal to get under a cap that I seriously doubt the Dodgers are truly concerned about is way outside the box of reason. It makes absolutely no sense and that’s not Mark. Maybe he’s just stirring the pot.
As to the Pirates and Reynolds, move on, nothing to see here. Package similar to Soto? Nonsense. While the guy is a good player, that’s all he is. Deep breath everyone. Stop looking desperate. It will all work out. Reynolds isn’t going to make or break the Dodgers season.
Hey, Chris Taylor can play center. No, he’s not Bellinger. But he hustles and if he can produce more contact, that would work. If not, let Outman play. Forget trying to be perfect, not going to happen.
So, stop worrying about the tax threshold. The Dodgers have the highest revenues in MLB. Heading into 2024, they have only $64 million or around that committed in payroll. Sounds like a lot of flexibility. Don’t the Mets have a payroll commitment so $235 million.
Very though provoking and BP is yet to be heard from. I know Bum will come up with some wild trade ideas. He is still jonesing to get Buxton I bet. The Padres signed Nelson Cruz to probably get most of the games at DH. He is getting 1 million.
Oh I am sorry Old Bear but wasn’t you the person that said Ian Happ along time ago to replace Bellinger in center field. But now if I say trade Taylor or Thompson for him it’s a bad idea because you don’t say it first. The trade with the Guardians I mentioned because the Dodgers need a starting third baseman and shortstop and those two players the guardians have would be great steals for the Dodgers. Oh now we have to be fair to people in baseball it’s Cleveland. What player wouldn’t want to come to LA. I know Taylor and lux and a minor league pitcher would be like dam I have to go to Cleveland. But I am getting this trade thing.
Mark, for that package I will ask also for the Pirates closer.
Here are a few things that we need to understand:
1. Guys like Judge and Trout and Babe Ruth may strike out a lot but they also have high batting averages, so they are not just three options. When you have guys like Gallo and Bellinger and Muncy and Rios who are low Batting Average Guys in the same lineup, you tend to get the same results. They all hit certain pitchers or none of them hit. They become huge rally killers. Gavin Lux struck out almost 100 times, so the 7, 8, and 9 Positions were Black Holes for the Dodger Offense. I am counting on a bounce back with Max Muncy. I think he will OPS over .900 and have his highest BA ever because of the loss of the shift. He will still strike out a lot, but Rojas and Vargas put the ball in play a lot more. When you put the ball in play more good things can happen. Yes, you can hit into a double play, but you can also get a hit or force the other team into an error.
2. With the banning of the shift, there will be more open holes in the defense, and putting the ball in play will be even more productive.
3. I hope I am wrong, but I think Outman is a candidate to strike out 200 times and Trayce Thompson just got lucky last year. I don’t think either will be sustainable. Outman runs fast, but he is not a plus CF’er – he takes poor routes at times, but makes up for it with his speed. That said, the Dodgers could live with 200 strikeouts in CF, if (1) the Defense was good and (2) the strikeouts at other positions are cut down. Many baseball people see Outman as Left-Fielder… and there is no mistaking that he struck out over 50% of the time with the Dodgers. Outman got lucky. It happens, but to me, he is no better than a 4th or 5th outfielder. Others feel differently.
4. The Dodgers need to create a place for Miguel Vargas, be it 3B or LF. That’s why I suggested Lux go to CF. It opens up 2B for Muncy and 3B for Vargas. Next year, Andy Pages will likely be ready.
The Dodgers have one of the best farm systems in baseball and it is ready to produce. Miller, Vargas, Stone, Busch, Outman, Pages, Cartaya, Pepiot, Ramos, Knack, Nastrini, Frasso, Kopp, Sheehan, Grove, DeLucca, Ward, Leonard, and Vivas are all projected by MLB Pipeline to be ready in 2023 or 2024. Obviously, all will not make it and some will be traded and some of the “Can’t Miss Prospects” will be passed by the “No So Hot Prospects”
But the 800-pound Gorilla in the Room is the Luxury Tax. The Dodgers have to trade someone and unless they trade a couple of someones, it won’t be a blockbuster deal. Of course, we would all like Bryan Reynolds, even though he would be a defensive downgrade in CF, his bat would play up. The Pirates would have to be motivated to trade him however and just asking for a trade is not motivation. The Dodgers would have to motivate the Pirates with a deal that likely included a couple of top-pitching prospects and a couple of top-hitting prospects.
As painful as it sounds, how about Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Emmett Sheehan, James Outman, and Jorbit Vivas, along with Blake Treinen and Chris Taylor for Reynolds? You have to pay a lot in player collateral to get Reynolds and for the pirates to take on Treinen’s and Taylors’ salaries. If Taylor has a good year, the Pirates could move him for more prospects.
That is a lot to pay but the Dodgers HAVE to get under the Lux Tax or it could cost them $100 Milllion next year. They are going to get below that level – I guarantee it! The Farm would still be deep – just not as deep and we may give up a star and a superstar, but we get back a pretty darn good player in the prime of his career.
I also like Gavin Lux at leadoff. If he can take his offensive game a step forward, he could be a .300 hitter with a .370-.380 OB%. Hit him at leadoff, ahead of Mookie Betts and Betts will see more fastballs which will also help him elevate his game. With Reynolds, this is the lineup I would want to see:
1. Lux 2B
2. Betts RF
3. Freeman 1B
4. Martinez DH
5. Reynolds CF
6. Smith C
7. Vargas LF
8. Muncy 3B
9. Rojas SS
Reynolds will be traded (at some point), but it could be Mid-Season… so we wait!
Brian Kenny of the MLB Network ranked Reynolds as the 3rd best CF in the game. Al be it, Brian noted Reynolds’ defensive metrics had taken a dip. Likely because he has lost a step athletic wise.
While I would not put Reynolds in the same class as Juan Soto with the bat, unlike Soto, Bryan Reynolds does possess the ability to play CF. The perception is that he will eventually move to a corner spot, but he is certainly more than capable of manning the position over the relatively near future.
It has been rumored that AF has expressed interest in Reynolds. Rightfully so, he fills a couple of key holes for us. One thing we know about AF, if he wants a player bad enough, he will find a way.
Jon Heyman confirmed yesterday that the Pirates are shopping Bryan Reynolds, but they want a return similar to what the Padres gave up for Juan Soto. They wanted a package of at least 4 top prospects, especially from the Yankees which included two of the Yankees top three prospects. I read about this on MLB.com. Teams are obviously balking at the price,
Former USC running back Charles White passed away. He still holds the Trojan record for career yards. RIP Charles.
Okay if the Dodgees could trade Taylor and Thompson. And say a pitcher that we have. What every day outfielder could we get from another team. Someone who would start every day like a Betts and Freeman. Let me give you a team and player that I would like to see in Dodger blue. Ian Happ! That would be an outfielder I would get. That player can play center field and Leftfield. And hey look at that! Taylor and Thompson get a reunion with Bellinger in Chicago. Happ is that kind of player. A player with serious energy and emotion and a clubhouse leader. How about that? Okay, let me hear why that would be a bad idea. Here is another Taylor or Thompson or Lux trafw that should happen. Trade with the Guardians who have outfielders a third baseman and a shortstop. We need every day starters right? So you get guys that can start everyday. Here are the players we could get and look good in Dodger blue. I am talking about Naylor Ramriez and Rosario. Just maybe the Dodgers could do that. Go get players we need with teams that have stars. And we give them good quality players. That have been good for us. It’s called having new faces in the the clubhouse. Now that it’s Freeman and Betts team. They know good players. Which they have played against. And the players would be great teamates.
Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout….
They all struck out too much. In 2014, Trout struck out 184 times… and he won his first MVP. Last year, Aaron Judge struck out 175 times–but had an OPS of 1.111.
Strikeouts were a big problem for the Dodgers last year, especially from Belli, Taylor and Gallo. Ugh.
Trayce also struck out too much too–but he had a OPS over .900! And over 1,000 against righthanded pitching. Perhaps it was just a hot streak over 200 ABs–but I’m glad he’s on the Dodgers.
Yeah, Outman struck out a lot too –but his OPS for 2022 (in AA, AAA and ML) was up around 1.000, which was higher than his peers Vargas and Busch.
And has anyone mentioned that Outman excellent on defense too?
He flashed a bit of that in his too-brief stint in the majors. He was playing centerfield and sprinted up to make a diving catch on a line drive. A less able outfielder could have played it for a single and no one would have complained. If he had missed it, it would have been a triple. But he didn’t miss. (This highlight was linked to in a Juan Toribio story today on mlb.com.)
If Outman strikes out 33% of the time but produces an 800 OPS, will we be complaining about him?
Folks here may recall that I was pushing for the Dodgers to sign Yoshida to play left. Kind of like Ichiro with less speed. He walks twice as often as he strikes out. When the news reported that Boston signed for $90 million, well, it was a lot more than I expected. (And we now better understand why AF has been conservative with the pursestrings.)
If Vargas lives up to the hype, he’ll help mitigate the team’s K problem.
If AF really does a salary dump with Chris Taylor, that would help too. And Belli and Gallo and their Ks are already gone.
Better edit this Mark. You listed Trea, and Gallo twice. So the total is not 651, it is 463. You add the 25 from Alberto and the number is 488. Still way too many.