Never Question Me Again!

Lisa Marie Pressley has left the house.

R.I.P. Lisa Marie!

An age has ended!

I am not in the habit of predicting. I rarely get it right. I try to understand how Freidman has worked since he came here and figure out his trends. Problem there, he has none. He has made moves that make me scratch my head, then he makes on that makes perfect sense. I think to him the deal for Rojas makes perfect sense since he probably feels uncomfortable playing Lux full time at SS. I would have loved to be a fly on the wall during the discussions that took place prior to the Dodgers trading Amaya.

It’s the off-season. You wish for trades like that a six player swap kind. The ones to change a whole lineup from a pretender to a contender. Shoot two years ago we should have gotten Arenaldo to play third base. That would have been good. We could have him Freeman and Betts now. But know they signed Turner. And old Red got old fast.

I’d rather have Mike Trout if your talking about getting anybody. That would shock the league. He doesn’t have to pay center field put he could he could also play Leftfield or DH. That would be a trade like hell ya. The middle of the Dodgers batting order with Trout in it. And play Outman in center field and Vargas everyday. That’s when you play rookies and surrounded them by veterans. Oh well, that’s what the off season is for. Us hoping to get that player. Which then other teams go oh no way they got him!

The Dodgers will be under the Luxury Tax. Write that down. It will cost them some prospects, but it will be worth it in the future. I don’t know why everyone doesn’t understand that you don’t BUY championships. No Way, No How!

Wow this is fun, Bradley mentions trading for Buxton, a very good player with an injury history worse than Kemp’s. When he chooses his outfield, he makes no mention of the best player on the team, Mookie Betts. Haters dislike the trade of an unproven prospect for a sure-fire gold glove SS. I think some of y’all forgot to eat your brain food. Bauer is gone, there should be no further mention of him whatsoever on a Dodger blog. I have serious doubts that any MLB team would sign him and like Mark, I think MLB is going to get slapped with a huge lawsuit. But Bauer still deserves the right to pursue a career in baseball. Might he pitch in Japan or Korea? Would they consider that?? Probably not. I have no idea what the 26 man is going to look like when they break camp and come back to LA. No one here does either. The only people who know what their overall plan is are not talking about it. SO gang, sit back and enjoy the ride. About the CBT, this would be the third year they have exceeded the limit, so they would get the highest penalty. But they have time before that to cut salary if they can. And maybe they are not really worried about it at all, maybe it is just the fans. They get a huge reset next season with a lot of salary coming off of the books.

I couldn’t care less about Amaya and I couldn’t care less about Rojas. But I hope Rojas is going to be on the bench and not starting. If he’s platooned with Lux there’s not much gain offensively than Lux starting everyday and Lux is growing unlike Rojas. I don’t know, that’s my take on the trade. I hope he doesn’t turn out to be another Hanser Alberto who I was right about from day 1 he signed and took alot of crap here from some people, the usual suspects, during the season about Hanser Alberto.

Hey all I was saying was. What you said dodgers could trade Bauer and Taylor with twins so. I said get Buxton at least he is a center field and maybe we do trade Lux sounds like the Dodgers don’t have a position for him. And wouldn’t you get good players if your trading with a team.

In this MLB Survey of executives:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-front-office-selections-best-farm-systems?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

The Dodgers ranks:

Farm: 2nd

Draft: 1st

IFA: 1st (tied)

Pitcher Dev: 2nd

Hitter Dev: 1st

Sleeper Dev: 1st

I guess it tells us what they thought of Amaya. Not much

With this move I certainly don’t want to hear that the Dodgers are playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Absolutely stupid trade.

If the dodgees are going to deal with the twins. Why not go after Byron Buxton and max Kepler. And say trade them for a Chris Taylor and trace Thompson and Lux and maybe a pitcher. They probable have an infielder that we could use too. So, you get yourself a legit center fielder and you put max Kepler and James Outman in Leftfield. And you still have Hayward as the Dodgers fourth outfielder. You have Muncy at second or third base. Vargas at third base. And Rojas at short stop. This could happen if the Twins want Bauer And there’s know where for Lux to play.

Trevor Bauer is now a free agent as AF could not trade him. When asked who might take him, one executive said Al Davis is the only one I could think of

Does this mean that we can now sign Bauer for the major league minimum!

Bauer officially released and DiGiovanna has this sourced quote:

“The only guy who I know for sure would sign him is Al Davis,” one high-ranking major league executive said, referring to the renegade Oakland Raiders owner who relished his organization’s bad-boy image right up until his death in 2011.

Emphasis and wiggle room created by “for sure”.

Alex Eisert @FanGraphs wonders about the Rojas deal and what it may portend.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-seemingly-scrap-spending-plans-acquire-miguel-rojas/

The idea of moving Trienen rather than Taylor or Muncy seems to be gaining traction in the public space. Whatever that means or doesn’t mean.

I’m wondering if the Dodgers don’t care to dip below the CBT threshold. Here is the latest on the CBT under the new CBA…

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

Key Points…

You only get penalized in the draft if you are $40M over the CBT and there is no mention of International Bonus Pool penalties…

A club that exceeds the Competitive Balance Tax threshold is subject to an increasing tax rate depending on how many consecutive years it has done so.

First year: 20 percent tax on all overages

Second consecutive year: 30 percent

Third consecutive year or more: 50 percent

If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.

$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge

$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that

$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge

Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

So we have till the trade deadline

The team would be over the threshold without this trade via the arbitration cases.

I read yesterday, but haven’t confirmed, that the date when teams are deemed “under” or “over” the threshold is at the END of the MLB season.

If this is true, it changes the dynamic entirely for me, in that there’s a lot more time to move Treinen, CT3 or other high-salary to create space.

Good morning Mark. Wow. I’m actually questioning your partially serious declaration to never question you again. You provide to us with your serious, somewhat serious, and often outlandish statements on a weekly basis for us to comment on. And we appreciate and need your opinions on topics for us to comment on. For example:

” Well, I am going to say this once: “I have been telling you for years that Lux was no SS, and some of you wanted to argue about it, but it turns out I was right, and you were wrong! End of story!”

Well, I don’t think it’s the end of the story with the Lux at SS dilemma. He’s only started 50 games at SS for the Dodgers in the past two years. Was he Ozzie Smith? No he wasn’t. But scouts, analysts, and you have come to the conclusion that Lux can’t play the position for the Dodgers. You all may be right. But, for you to declare “I was right and you were wrong” before Lux has had even an reasonable chance to play there everyday is an opinion to be questioned. And I don’t remember anyone arguing about Lux being the only candidate to play everyday SS. Many expressed an opinion that he should at least be given a fair opportunity to claim the spot. Maybe Lux has been working hard to improve his footwork and throwing in the offseason. Or, maybe the Dodgers’ FO has told Lux to work on playing LF or CF for the 2023 season. We don’t know for sure. Oh sorry, other than you, we don’t know for sure. It would be nice for Lux to be able to play SS. It would allow Vargas to play 3B and Muncy to 2B regularly. That’s kind of scary defensively, but we don’t know that for a fact because it’s just a projection at this point. That’s one reason I’m looking forward to this season. That is, how is all this going to come together? It may take half the season to find out.

I don’t see the Dodgers expecting the 34 year old Rojas manning the SS spot fulltime this season. I always liked him and his versatility and was sorry when he was traded to Miami. I think the reason AF may have traded for Rojas is to increase the possibility of trading CT3 (+ a prospect) for get under the Luxury tax threshold. Or possibly including CT3 in a Bauer trade. Why else would they go over the $233M for a player like Rojas? Something must be in the works.

I think it was Bear who wanted Lux to play everyday at one position (2B or SS) so that he could keep his mind clear and reduce stress. This was something that concerned me about Lux when he arrived with the Dodgers was that he appeared not to be mentally prepared for MLB. I agree with Bear in that Lux shouldn’t be moved around to different positions whether it be SS, 2B, LF, CF. I hope they do the same with Vargas. Either 3B or LF. Pick a spot an leave him there. Apparently, he’s working hard at 3B in the offseason. I don’t think it would helpful to say to him at the start of spring training “never mind 3B, it’s now LF”. The game is hard enough for these young guys. We need their offensive talents to shine in 2023 and adding defensive question marks to their agenda might not be helpful.

Carry on.

I have no knowledge or any inside information. It’s just that using the “eye-test”(not stats), Gavin Lux is not a Shortstop and while Jeff Dominique and I don’t agree on everything, this is something we have both agreed upon. I also think that it will take a couple of months for Lux to be completely comfortable in the outfield. Throughout high school and into my early 30s, I played SS exclusively before switching to 3B. Then, I started to have arm problems (I also pitched when I wasn’t playing the field and my rotator cuff was getting frayed pretty badly so I switched to 2B. Those of you who knew me years ago may find that funny because I am a guy about the size of Joey Gallo (well, I was until I lost 3” due to degenerative disc disease). I played at 2B for a year before moving to 1B exclusively. My point is that I played infield almost exclusively… except for one game when our centerfielder was injured and our manager said, “Timmons, you are my next fastest guy, you are playing CF.”

You talk about a deer in the headlights – I froze on so many balls right off the bat that the manager benched me after three innings. If a player has not played CF, under game conditions, boy it must take a long time to learn. I know how Gavin Lux felt when he played the outfield… briefly. Gavin Lux has only played 339 innings in the outfield and I am going to say two things about that:

1. He has an idea of what it is like and so his learning curve will be shorter than someone who has never played there; and

2. I do not think you can make a judgement as to his ability tp play OF after 339 innings!

I think he can play there (at a high level) if he is committed to it, but time will tell.

Now, Muncy could go to 3B and Lux could stay at 2B. I know that is a possibility. Vargas then moves to LF which makes Busch the odd man out and I think Mike Busch will surprise many of you. There’s a reason why Fangraphs has Busch at #3 and Outman at #26. So, I admit that this could be the lineup:

1. Lux 2B (who is a better leadoff hitter? – Lux over Betts IF Lux can hit like I think)

2. Betts RF

3. Freeman 1B

4. Martinez DH

5. Muncy 3B

6. Smith C

7. Vargas LF (maybe Busch in a Platoon)

8. Outman/Thompson CF

9. Rojas SS

I do not have high hopes for Trayce Thompson. Everyone makes a big deal of his reverse splits LAST YEAR, but for his career, he hits .228 against RHP and .210 for LHP. So, it’s not that big of a deal. What is the big deal is that he strikes out at an alarming clip, he’s 32 and has never hit as he did in 2022 (and that was just .256). We know he is a good guy, from Good Bloodlines, but he has never been a very good MLB player, and the odds are he reverts back to that. Jason Heyward is only a year older and I have hopes that the Dodgers can “Fix” him, but I do not think he is a CF’er.

So, it is going to be interesting to what happens this Spring. There are lots of opportunities and plenty of options. Now that SS is stabilized, let the game begin!

To me, this just solidifies the Dodgers commitment to Lux. There will be no competition with Jacob Amaya in Spring Training. They just brought in a veteran defensive wiz that can offer tutelage to Lux to make him even better on the defensive side of the ball and to give him a day off against left-handers to keep him fresh.

I still don’t like this deal if it takes them over the cap. But, maybe they have a trade in place to free up some of that sunk Bauer money? I pray.

If the Dodgers weren’t going to go ahead with Lux, they wouldn’t have let Seager and Trea walk. It’s a simple as that. Read the writing on the wall. Rojas is a depth piece and the Dodgers obviously concluded that Amaya won’t hit enough to be a big leaguer. It also shows they aren’t comfortable with CT3 at SS.

KISS. Keep It Simple Stupid. Stop moving everybody around to satisfy your fantasy. Outman and Trayce will platoon in CF and CT3 will be the primary Left Fielder and Heyward will most likely make the team. With Outman in CF and CT3 in LF, the bench would be Heyward, Rojas, Thompson and Barnes. Done! If Pages, Deluca or Busch pulls a Belli this Spring, they can stash Heyward in the minors for the time being like they did with Pillar last season.

AF architected this team to make a runway for guys like Outman, Vargas and Busch. You aren’t going to block them now by giving Rojas a starting spot and moving an infielder into a crowded outfield mix. That goes against everything they did this offseason.

The more I think about it, the more I like it…

Rojas really does solidify the infield. He, Freddie and Will are all top-shelf defenders who can help cover for the not-so-hot stuff we can expect from 2B and 3B. (I still pine for Matt Chapman.) Without Rojas, we’d have three question marks in the infield. (And doesn’t Lux represent a defensive upgrade at 2B over Max or Vargas? I assume so.)

When I look at my projected lineup, I see 25+ HR potential from every position but SS and 2B. And 30+ potential from RF, DH and 3B.

I don’t see Outman as a 4th outfielder at all. He’s a rookie who has earned that runway to prove himself. Trayce, a journeyman, seems more like a 4th OF type to me–but his breakout is real and Heyward is the 4th OF on this team.

I’m bullish on Outman, the Rodney Dangerfield of prospects. He’ll strike out a lot, but he has improved year after year. He’s excellent on defense, and his OPS in 2022–despite the strikeouts– was better than Vargas and Busch. If Outman delivers a league-average performance, that would be a big upgrade over what Belli, Gallo and Taylor produced last year.

If he flops, he flops. But he’s earned the chance.

Lux is a good, fast athlete…. but remember how ragged he looked when they tried him in CF and LF?

Bad jumps, bad reads and bad routes–including one into the wall. The veterans, you may recall, razzed the youngster by putting up a police-style body outline on the wall.

A learning experience!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qroE0Mne7XI

Has Lux been working out this off-season at CF? Did AF tell him, “Don’t tell anybody, but I’m joking about you playing SS. Go get some outfield reps.” I don’t think so.

Sure, a position shift is possible. But does anyone seriously think Lux could out-field Trayce, Outman and Taylor? They are all good defenders–and probably have better arms than Lux too. Why make a trade to strengthen infield defense only to have it weaken the OF defense?

I see a few possibilities here…

–Rojas owns the SS job and the fate of Lux will be sorted out, mostly likely with a move back to 2B but possibly–eventually–in a trade.

–The SS depth chart is now Lux, Rojas, Taylor, because the Dodgers tend to emphasize offense over defense. Lux’s bat was excellent in early 2022… until it wasn’t. Rojas could be a late-inning defensive replacement.

–An SS platoon? Lux bats left, Rojas right. Neither have reverse splits. Unlikely, but possible.

–Lux moves back to 2B is the cleanest solution, but it triggers some dominoes, with Max shifting back to 3B, possibly sharing the job with Vargas, or Vargas shifting to left, perhaps in a platoon with Trayce. (I still like McCutchen’s, but I think Rojas has probably filled out the roster.)

Having Vargas in a platoon may not be ideal–less of that runway–but I think this might be the best option. His bat-to-ball skills would mitigate Trayce’s Ks, enhancing the production from LF.

So…..

Betts RF (name a better leadoff hitter. Rickey Henderson doesn’t count)

Freeman 1B (the Dodgers’ best hitter–an on-base and doubles machine)

JD Martinez DH (but will he outslug JT?)

Muncy 3B

Smith C

Lux 2B

Trayce/Vargas LF

Outman CF

Rojas SS (fa gold-glove candidate SS! …Finally!)

Bench: Barnes, Taylor, Heyward…. Yonny Hernandez?

Another potential outcome: Lux gets traded, perhaps in midseason.

I do not like this trade. For once it puts us over the luxury cap and second we did it for a marginable player.

Now if the plan really is to get under the cap the Dodgers will have to make another move to shed salary. Whose it gonna be ? CT3? Then you moved Amaya and CT3 for Rojas.

And the idea of putting Lux in CF ? Well, not very happy about that too. Lux is a great athlete, right, but he has about ZERO experience in the outfield. Overall the Dodgers defense beside Freeman, Smith and Betts looks suspect already.

A very strange offseason so far for the Dodgers and right now I do not see this team winning more than 85 games unless the pitching is absolutely lights out and at least one of the kids comes threw in a big way.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Interesting development but tempered by the fact that although he’s just had wrist surgery, he needs further work on it, which is a red flag for me.

Not sure Ive seen a player yet who returns to their best form in the season after surgery – always seems to take time, and we only have him for one year.

I’m reserving judgement on this one…

Mark may want to wait for the Dodgers to explain this move before ruling out Lux as a SS.

Rojas adds depth, but it makes zero sense to exceed the luxury tax just to swap Amaya for Rojas. He is a below average hitter and could barely start for the Marlins, much less a World Series contender. Rojas is a good insurance policy if Lux can’t handle SS, but I highly doubt Rojas is expected to be an everyday player. Maybe they platoon Rojas and Lux at SS, and Lux moves to 2B against lefties. Or maybe Rojas is used as a late inning defensive replacement.

But this is a baffling move as it stands now. If the Dodgers were fine exceeding $233 million in payroll, then they should have actively pursued a legitimate SS like Turner, Boegaerts or Swanson. Or a budget free agent option like Iglesias or Andrus.

Usually Friedman finds a solution and no way this is the last domino. Either dump salary to get under the CBT threshold or spend more to improve the team.

Is Rojas really going to be the Dodgers shortstop? You would think but then there’s this;

Rojas, 34 next month, adds a glove-first utility option to the mix in L.A. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes the club plans to bounce the nine-year MLB veteran around the infield in a multi-positional capacity.

I think Lux can be a very good player. Just put him in CF and let him play. I think you just might find that he is a Centerfielder.

I like it I was saying the same thing just don’t like Busch in LF. Maybe Heyward if he is like Kemp was in spring training that one year. Kemo made the all-star team.. Then they have Thompson or Outman out there some games. If they trade Taylor? And also some prospects. Could they get an established outfielder. Say like from the D- Backs. I hear they have like six outfielders. Just haven’t followed the Twins. And don’t know who they have as outfielders.

What happens when a blind squirrel runs into a broken clock?

“Don’t doubt what I am saying… right about now, my record is better than yours!”

We’re still waiting for Alex Verdugo to turn into the next Tony Gwynn.

“…as well as a respected clubhouse leader.”

I think this is a big part of it. The Dodgers are already risking a little bit by going with two rookies in the lineup. Amaya might turn into a decent MLB shortstop someday, but today the Dodgers need a proven commodity and a veteran presence in the clubhouse – especially with JT gone – instead of another unproven rookie.

Hard to justify Lux there at SS sandwiched in between a rookie Vargas at 3rd and a suspect Muncy at 2nd, especially now that the shift is gone and he can’t cheat. The Dodgers need some stability in that infield. The infield defense still is a major question mark, but it’s better.

Not sure where that puts Lux. If he’s not a SS, he’s not a CF. Doesn’t have the pop for LF.