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The Game Has Changed and Not For the Better

Earlier in the week I had a dialogue with MT and Bluto regarding the lack of confidence I have in RVS as a competent MLB Team Batting Coach. I have no doubts that his methodology can and does work for some, but each batter is different and needs a different approach. At least…

By Jeff Dominique8 min readJump to 103 comments

Earlier in the week I had a dialogue with MT and Bluto regarding the lack of confidence I have in RVS as a competent MLB Team Batting Coach.  I have no doubts that his methodology can and does work for some, but each batter is different and needs a different approach.  At least that is the way it used to be.  I concede that the LAD method of hitting is to teach plate discipline (another way of saying to work the count), swing as hard as you can with as much launch angle.  Strikeouts are unimportant.  OPS is what drives the offense, and OPS is driven by slugging percentage.  Plenty of hitters have a good OBP, but a lousy SLG and their OPS suffers, and they are considered marginal hitters.

I will never be convinced that RVS can adequately coach a TEAM on hitting, but I also concede that he will not be terminated as he does “coach” what the LAD Front Office espouses.  MT listed a slew of metrics showcasing his position that RVS is the right choice.  My response was that those metrics measured the talent far more than the coaching.  In my estimation the numbers are driven by outstanding talent against lesser pitchers, but when the playoffs come, those same batters are baffled by good pitching.  During the playoffs, MT was defending the pitchers highlighting that it was the lack of hitting that hurt the team.  I absolutely concurred.  The playoffs called for situational hitting that the TEAM was not able to perform, with the exclamation mark coming in the 7th inning in Game 6 with the nobody out and runners on 2nd and 3rd.  Putting the bat on the ball and hitting to the right side probably gets the runner home and the second runner to 3rd with one out.  Then the team would have been in a position to tie the score with another out.  Or a simple single score both.  What does happen?  Tyler Matzek strikes out Pujols, Souza, and Betts.  Inning over and for all practical purposes, series and season over. 

The metrics MT highlighted were certainly impressive, but as I opined they were more attuned to the talent.  If the coaching was helping, one might expect the metrics would be getting better.  However that is not the case. Last year the metrics were as follows:

Strikeouts – 13th most

Batting Average – 11th

OBP – 5th

SLG – 7th

OPS – 6th

HR – 4th

The team appears to be regressing. Where they were really good at was walks, where they were 2nd.  A team with this much offensive power has the OBP up because they walk.  Showing excellent plate discipline.  No MT,  I am not advocating that the hitters should swing at bad pitches. But how many times did we complain about the number of pitches that were right down Broadway and the batter did not lift his bat off his shoulder.  The Atlanta hitters got a few excuse me hits with runners on base, and we call them lucky.  Or maybe they were not just as plate disciplined and chose to swing and try to do something offensively rather than walk.

Okay, time to get off my soapbox.  The dialogue got me to thinking.  With all of this golden information, one would assume that the hitting today is superior to those in prior decades.  I only go back to the 1958, so I got to thinking.  Where are todays Pete Rose, George Brett, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, Roberto Clemente, Stan Musial, Rod Carew, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Todd Helton, Vlad Guerrero Sr.  There would be no place for a hitter like Brett Butler today. Overall hitting has regressed over the last 21 years, fairly dramatically. 

BA – 2000 (.270) and 2021 (.244)

OBP – 2000 (.345) and 2021 (.317)                                                                                                            

SLG – 2000 (.437) and 2021 (.411)

OPS – 2000 (.782) and 2021 (.728)

It is not just one year deviation, but this has been a steady regression consistently over the years.  If this new way of looking at hitting is sooooooo much better, why are not the numbers supporting that claim?

Then I read Bear’s excellent post on why we became baseball fans.  I did not have a television set until 1965, so my only exposure was through my transistor radio and golden voice of Vin Scully.  It was a treat for me to ride my bike to department stores in Panorama City so I could watch All Star games and World Series. I got to see all of my baseball idols sometimes twice during the summer.  I was hooked, and I never left.

When I was “debating’ the plaudits of RVS with MT and Bluto, it got me to thinking that it isn’t RVS that I am upset about, it is the direction of the game.  It is no longer see ball hit ball (hit it where they aint), decisions made by smart baseball managers, pitchers used to pitching every 5th day and pitching 300+ innings, batters not wearing armor and digging in on top of the plate, and yet not striking out 200 times a season (like Matt Chapman), pitchers not afraid to dust back hitters, pitchers knowing when to retaliate and how to properly retaliate, runners forcing the game by routinely stealing and taking the extra base, runners breaking up double plays, the number 2 in the lineup taking pitches to let the leadoff hitter steal second and then hitting behind the runner to get the runner to 3rd with less than two outs (Junior Gilliam was an expert here)…I grew up loving the game from the 60’s and I very much miss that game. 

What has changed?  Two things in my opinion.  Money and technology.  Pitchers like Gerrit Cole are asking for and getting $324MM for 9 years.  And so that the team hurt their “investment”, Cole threw  all of 181.1 IP or $198,533 per IP.  Koufax and Drysdale held out one Spring for $100K annually.  Looking at Gerrit Cole, what would pitchers like Bob Gibson, Mickey Lolich, Juan Marichal, Whitey Ford, Steve Carlton demand today?  Who knows, because with that kind of investment, owners are going to be overly cautious with their pitchers’ arms.  How about our $300MM hitters like Mookie and Francisco Lindor?  Mookie is getting $30.4MM per season for 12 years, and Lindor is earning $34.1MM for 10 years.  Mookie had 123 hits or $247,154 per hit while Lindor had 104 hits or $327,885 per hit.  Even taking into consideration the one $300MM player who had a MVP type season, Bryce Harper, who earned $25.4MM per season with 151 hits or $168,110 per hit. 

I understand the changing finances that justify today’s salaries when fWAR is calculated (approximately $8MM per 1 WAR).  I understand the changing economics overall.  MLB is an entertainment industry, and their salaries pale in comparison to the top movie makers, recording artists, and NBA players. BUT I DO NOT HAVE TO LIKE IT.  The game has changed from the game I grew up with to the game that is played today, and the player investment is very much taken into consideration.

Technology has also changed the game.  It used to be Casey Stengel, Walter Alston, Tommy Lasorda, Billy Martin, Red Schoendienst, Sparky Anderson, Earl Weaver, Alvin Dark, Johnny Keane, Bill Rigney, Danny Murtaugh, Gene Mauch, Bobby Cox making decisions ON THE FIELD.  Now it is MIT Economics Phds running countless pages of data through computer algorithms that drive strategy and decisions.  It used to be one man was responsible for making the decision, now it is decision by committee, and countless numbers of non-baseball people.  Pretty soon we are going to have a wing at Cooperstown for the top nerds.

The stolen base is now considered a risk not worth taking, even though catchers are dropping to one knee to get the low strike. Trea Turner led the NL in stolen bases with 32. 32. I want to see Maury Wills, Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson, Davey Lopes, Tim Raines, Vince Coleman. The game was much more exciting with the threat of a stolen base by the base-stealing artists. The game has become much more sterile.

Shifts?  How many times can a pitcher go through the lineup?  Right hand hitter vs left hand hitter?  Change the lineup every game? Have to rest a player every 10 games so they can play in October?  But pay them $30MM per year?  Game clocks? Complain about the length of the game, but add more commercials between innings just to get more dollars. Strikeouts are no longer a negative.  I know many fans like instant replay.  I do not. Let the humans make the calls on the field.  Of course bad calls are going to be made. Are the plate umpires worse today than before or are we just seeing the mistakes on the television screen?  Might as well just play “The Show” video game. 

So in retrospect, I understand that the game has changed, and that the likes of RVS are now part of the new dynamic of MLB.  We are now having theoreticians in charge and not baseball people.  MLB is first and foremost a business (an oligopoly).  And business is driven by profit, and profit is driven by winning (usually).  So the nerds come up with these strategies to give the team the best shot at winning.  The Dodgers hire the most and best nerds and generally own the regular season.  However, they have not been as successful in playoffs.  Are those results due to poor nerd information or poor baseball execution.  Let the baseball players play.  Don’t stifle them with scenario driven strategy.  See ball/hit ball. Field ball/throw ball.

I will always love the Dodgers, but I acknowledge that my love for the game of baseball has waned. I am more than a bit nostalgic for the great game of the 60’s and 70’s.  Yes, I am the proverbial old man yelling at the screen for today’s players to get off my grass.

Discussion (103)

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  1. dreamweaverNovember 18, 2021

    ok here’s my luis castillo trade offer:

    pepiot

    grove

    carson taylor

    probably needs a better secondary prospect but i made up for it by including a wild card as the third

  2. DodgerLoverNovember 18, 2021

    Probably the single biggest thing I miss about baseball as it used to be during my youth [basically, 1980s] is the starting pitchers going deep into games, complete games, and concept of a game being based around the match-up between the starting pitchers. I remember looking forward to a three-game series and trying to figure out what the rotation battles would be. Now, as we have seen, this really accounts for very little (I realize this opinion will be jumped on but oh well). Yes, it’s nice to have a good arm on the mound but what does it matter if you’re just going to bring in a reliever in the 6th when your guy either gasses out, hits a high pitch count number (100 is basically the reddest of red flags these days) or gets into a jam that the manager decides a different arm would be better to help get out of?

    Baseball is almost certainly worse as a product than it used to be. As a Dodger fan, I have become spoiled by these All-Star lineups we put out; but the results haven’t quite matched the hype. Too many disappointments and too many micro-managerial decisions. Let ’em play.

  3. sbuffaloNovember 18, 2021

    Excellent rant, Jeff. Totally agree.

    Since players can’t seem to adjust or simply won’t bunt during the extreme shifts, it’s time for the shifts to go. Shifts are changing the game in a very unfortunate way. Someone drills a line drive into right or right center, caught by the rover. Ridiculous. Baseball needs more action, not less.

    Yes, the game has definitely changed. Money is one problem. Cost to go to a game another. Lack of action definitely a problem. . Not just stolen bases, but being able to go first to third. Too much focus on power, not enough on putting the ball in play. Look how much excitement Maury Wills created back in the day.

    It’s easy to see analytics has messed up the game and the fact that most starters leave the game after five or maybe six innings is a problem. Maybe they fear the pitcher with the massive contract getting hurt, but isn’t that why you gave him the big contract in the first place? Go deep into games, save the bullpen.

    Walks are fine, but the problem with that is converting them into runs. Remember when Max Muncy was walking all the time early in the season, letting good pitches to hit go past? The Dodgers needed Muncy to swing the bat, which he finally did and run production went up.

    One of the things you appreciate about Trea Turner, not only does he hit for power, but he steals bases, even scores from first on a hit into the gap. A slow grounder can become a hit. That’s exciting. Even “the slide” was one of the highlights of the season.

    That’s why the Dodgers need to keep Turner. Batting champ, stolen base leader, all the speed and some power too.

    Mookie Betts is certainly an exciting player for many of the same reasons. Add Chris Taylor into that mix, the only drawback the high number of swing and miss at bats.

    No question the game needs to change. Probably one of the most exciting games I’ve been too had a home run, a couple of triples, a few doubles, a sac fly and a close play at the plate, a double steal and a squeeze play, all packed into one game.

    If I were running baseball, the DH would be added into the NL, the shift would be over with two players on each side of second, every team would get one day off a week, Monday or Thursday, to help with the grind of a long season. If you want a team to play a Sunday night game, they get Monday off.

    I’m really tired of the massive contracts. They seldom work out. I’ve heard that the increasing size of contracts has no impact of fans, listened to numerous people make that argument on MLB radio. Nonsense. If payrolls and high player costs don’t impact the pocketbooks of fans, then why raise ticket prices every year? Not to mention parking, food, drink and merchandise.

    I get it. The union wants to push contracts higher. So do agents. But honestly how much money do you need? The NFL and NBA already price out families. Will baseball soon follow. Kids and families are what makes baseball better. You can actually afford to take your family to a game. How much longer will that be true? That will be a loss that baseball might not recover from. Anybody think that comes up in CBA negotiations?

    Just the other day we talked about the old days versus current times, access to players and all. How it was better back in the day. No question MLB understood that and teams made more of an effort to create better access. Will they understand the cost issue?

    Yes, AJ Pollock is a fun player. Always liked or should I say hated seeing him play for the DBacks back in the day. I loved the signing, hated by many. Hey, I also thought signing Trevor Bauer was a good idea too. So I’m one for two.

  4. Mark TimmonsNovember 18, 2021

    The Arizona Fall League implement the following rules this year:

    1. 15 – second pitch clock

    2. Automatic Ball Strike System (using the Hawkeye System)

    3. Pitchcom Communications (between pitcher, catcher, and defenders)

    4. Limit of 2 pickoffs per PA

    5. Defense Positioning (infielders required to stay on dirt with two on each side of 2B)

    6. Base size is increased from 15″ to 18″

    I have no problems with any of that. It would add more scoring… I think!

  5. MushersPopNovember 18, 2021

    Question forJeff;

    Interesting comparison between 2000 and now. But to what extent has the movement to shorter outings by pitchers (and not seeing a lineup a third time) as well as increasing use of relievers within a given game lowered the numbers you cite? and along those lines to what extent has the trends in pitcher use necessitated the need for home runs ( as it’s hard to string hits together). Not disagreeing with you, hitting definitely is on a downswing but is the current trend a response ( and not necessarily a good one) to pitcher usage?

  6. BulldogsandPenguinsNovember 18, 2021

    I agree with much of this as always AC. Very nice job breaking this down. The following really stood out to me…

    I will never be convinced that RVS can adequately coach a TEAM on hitting, but I also concede that he will not be terminated as he does “coach” what the LAD Front Office espouses. MT listed a slew of metrics showcasing his position that RVS is the right choice. My response was that those metrics measured the talent far more than the coaching.

    I feel this same statement can be applied to Doc. He’s not a good manager, but the talent on the team makes up for his shortcomings and he implements the script that’s provided by the front office, so he’ll keep his job.

    The thing that frustrates me the most is that he’ll ignore the hot hand in favor of past performance which is basically the problem with statistic driven decision making. By the time you have a large enough sample size to adjust your strategy based on statistics, it’s often too late to react. You can look at the shift and stolen bases to back up this argument. Like AC said, with catchers concentrating on stealing calls from the umpire, they have gotten into some pretty bad habits like dropping that knee to get a low strike. Starling Marte, out of nowhere stole 47 bases and was only caught 5 times. He made an adjustment without waiting for statistics to tell him it would be beneficial. The shift is driving me absolutely crazy. It seems like the Dodgers give up shift hits constantly, but never seem to get them.

    I’m often hard on three true outcome players. I haven’t been a huge Muncy fan because of this, although he did cut down on his strikeouts this past year and seemed better for it for a while. But, a prolonged slump put his numbers back on track with his 2019 season.

    I felt that AJ Pollock was one of the more interesting hitters on the team this year. Both ended up with about the same OPS, but they got there in different ways. It just felt like AJ was more exciting because he put the bat on the ball more often. Sure, Max’s big blasts were fun to watch, but it seemed like AJ was keeping the inning going more often.

    I don’t know if my love for the game has changed as a result of the changes in the game. I watch baseball more than any other sport. But, I prefer seeing more baserunners and more action on the field. I miss contact on plays at the plate and runners breaking up double plays and I hate how replay has changed swipe tags on stolen bases and neighborhood plays on double plays. I fear that the automated strike zone will ultimately change the game for the worse. I respect the law of unintended consequences and think a system like that really needs time to bake in the minors or Independent leagues before we screw up the major league game with hasty decisions. But, I would absolutely love to see them implement some kind of extreme shift rule. Three infielders on the dirt at all times and 2 on each side of second base would do it for me.

  7. dreamweaverNovember 18, 2021

    They need to fix the part where the best team doesn’t always win.

  8. MushersPopNovember 18, 2021

    “ We are now having theoreticians in charge and not baseball people”. To echo your complaint about the game; theory like mist on eyeglasses obscure vision.

  9. CT Dodger FanNovember 18, 2021

    Outstanding column.

  10. norcaldodgerfanNovember 18, 2021

    Another excellent post by Jeff. Very persuasive and thorough, but I still want RVS gone.

  11. JRNovember 18, 2021

    Excellent vent this morning Jeff. Those dollar figures per inning and per hit are just unimaginable. Appreciate your writing sir.

  12. Mark TimmonsNovember 18, 2021

    The problem with BA and OB% is not just with the Dodgers… all teams are experiencing it. I think the causes are:

    1. Analytics provides better positioning of fielders and pitchers have more information on where to throw the ball to hitters (if they can hit that spot); and

    2. Stacking 3 or 4 players on one side of the field also contributes.

    I think MLB will ban the shift this winter.

    Of course, some will say, “just hit it the other way.” Yeah, if you are LH, lets see you hit an inside slider to LF!

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