Earlier in the week I had a dialogue with MT and Bluto regarding the lack of confidence I have in RVS as a competent MLB Team Batting Coach. I have no doubts that his methodology can and does work for some, but each batter is different and needs a different approach. At least that is the way it used to be. I concede that the LAD method of hitting is to teach plate discipline (another way of saying to work the count), swing as hard as you can with as much launch angle. Strikeouts are unimportant. OPS is what drives the offense, and OPS is driven by slugging percentage. Plenty of hitters have a good OBP, but a lousy SLG and their OPS suffers, and they are considered marginal hitters.
I will never be convinced that RVS can adequately coach a TEAM on hitting, but I also concede that he will not be terminated as he does “coach” what the LAD Front Office espouses. MT listed a slew of metrics showcasing his position that RVS is the right choice. My response was that those metrics measured the talent far more than the coaching. In my estimation the numbers are driven by outstanding talent against lesser pitchers, but when the playoffs come, those same batters are baffled by good pitching. During the playoffs, MT was defending the pitchers highlighting that it was the lack of hitting that hurt the team. I absolutely concurred. The playoffs called for situational hitting that the TEAM was not able to perform, with the exclamation mark coming in the 7th inning in Game 6 with the nobody out and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Putting the bat on the ball and hitting to the right side probably gets the runner home and the second runner to 3rd with one out. Then the team would have been in a position to tie the score with another out. Or a simple single score both. What does happen? Tyler Matzek strikes out Pujols, Souza, and Betts. Inning over and for all practical purposes, series and season over.
The metrics MT highlighted were certainly impressive, but as I opined they were more attuned to the talent. If the coaching was helping, one might expect the metrics would be getting better. However that is not the case. Last year the metrics were as follows:
Strikeouts – 13th most
Batting Average – 11th
OBP – 5th
SLG – 7th
OPS – 6th
HR – 4th
The team appears to be regressing. Where they were really good at was walks, where they were 2nd. A team with this much offensive power has the OBP up because they walk. Showing excellent plate discipline. No MT, I am not advocating that the hitters should swing at bad pitches. But how many times did we complain about the number of pitches that were right down Broadway and the batter did not lift his bat off his shoulder. The Atlanta hitters got a few excuse me hits with runners on base, and we call them lucky. Or maybe they were not just as plate disciplined and chose to swing and try to do something offensively rather than walk.
Okay, time to get off my soapbox. The dialogue got me to thinking. With all of this golden information, one would assume that the hitting today is superior to those in prior decades. I only go back to the 1958, so I got to thinking. Where are todays Pete Rose, George Brett, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Kirby Puckett, Roberto Clemente, Stan Musial, Rod Carew, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, Todd Helton, Vlad Guerrero Sr. There would be no place for a hitter like Brett Butler today. Overall hitting has regressed over the last 21 years, fairly dramatically.
BA – 2000 (.270) and 2021 (.244)
OBP – 2000 (.345) and 2021 (.317)
SLG – 2000 (.437) and 2021 (.411)
OPS – 2000 (.782) and 2021 (.728)
It is not just one year deviation, but this has been a steady regression consistently over the years. If this new way of looking at hitting is sooooooo much better, why are not the numbers supporting that claim?
Then I read Bear’s excellent post on why we became baseball fans. I did not have a television set until 1965, so my only exposure was through my transistor radio and golden voice of Vin Scully. It was a treat for me to ride my bike to department stores in Panorama City so I could watch All Star games and World Series. I got to see all of my baseball idols sometimes twice during the summer. I was hooked, and I never left.
When I was “debating’ the plaudits of RVS with MT and Bluto, it got me to thinking that it isn’t RVS that I am upset about, it is the direction of the game. It is no longer see ball hit ball (hit it where they aint), decisions made by smart baseball managers, pitchers used to pitching every 5th day and pitching 300+ innings, batters not wearing armor and digging in on top of the plate, and yet not striking out 200 times a season (like Matt Chapman), pitchers not afraid to dust back hitters, pitchers knowing when to retaliate and how to properly retaliate, runners forcing the game by routinely stealing and taking the extra base, runners breaking up double plays, the number 2 in the lineup taking pitches to let the leadoff hitter steal second and then hitting behind the runner to get the runner to 3rd with less than two outs (Junior Gilliam was an expert here)…I grew up loving the game from the 60’s and I very much miss that game.
What has changed? Two things in my opinion. Money and technology. Pitchers like Gerrit Cole are asking for and getting $324MM for 9 years. And so that the team hurt their “investment”, Cole threw all of 181.1 IP or $198,533 per IP. Koufax and Drysdale held out one Spring for $100K annually. Looking at Gerrit Cole, what would pitchers like Bob Gibson, Mickey Lolich, Juan Marichal, Whitey Ford, Steve Carlton demand today? Who knows, because with that kind of investment, owners are going to be overly cautious with their pitchers’ arms. How about our $300MM hitters like Mookie and Francisco Lindor? Mookie is getting $30.4MM per season for 12 years, and Lindor is earning $34.1MM for 10 years. Mookie had 123 hits or $247,154 per hit while Lindor had 104 hits or $327,885 per hit. Even taking into consideration the one $300MM player who had a MVP type season, Bryce Harper, who earned $25.4MM per season with 151 hits or $168,110 per hit.
I understand the changing finances that justify today’s salaries when fWAR is calculated (approximately $8MM per 1 WAR). I understand the changing economics overall. MLB is an entertainment industry, and their salaries pale in comparison to the top movie makers, recording artists, and NBA players. BUT I DO NOT HAVE TO LIKE IT. The game has changed from the game I grew up with to the game that is played today, and the player investment is very much taken into consideration.
Technology has also changed the game. It used to be Casey Stengel, Walter Alston, Tommy Lasorda, Billy Martin, Red Schoendienst, Sparky Anderson, Earl Weaver, Alvin Dark, Johnny Keane, Bill Rigney, Danny Murtaugh, Gene Mauch, Bobby Cox making decisions ON THE FIELD. Now it is MIT Economics Phds running countless pages of data through computer algorithms that drive strategy and decisions. It used to be one man was responsible for making the decision, now it is decision by committee, and countless numbers of non-baseball people. Pretty soon we are going to have a wing at Cooperstown for the top nerds.
The stolen base is now considered a risk not worth taking, even though catchers are dropping to one knee to get the low strike. Trea Turner led the NL in stolen bases with 32. 32. I want to see Maury Wills, Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson, Davey Lopes, Tim Raines, Vince Coleman. The game was much more exciting with the threat of a stolen base by the base-stealing artists. The game has become much more sterile.
Shifts? How many times can a pitcher go through the lineup? Right hand hitter vs left hand hitter? Change the lineup every game? Have to rest a player every 10 games so they can play in October? But pay them $30MM per year? Game clocks? Complain about the length of the game, but add more commercials between innings just to get more dollars. Strikeouts are no longer a negative. I know many fans like instant replay. I do not. Let the humans make the calls on the field. Of course bad calls are going to be made. Are the plate umpires worse today than before or are we just seeing the mistakes on the television screen? Might as well just play “The Show” video game.
So in retrospect, I understand that the game has changed, and that the likes of RVS are now part of the new dynamic of MLB. We are now having theoreticians in charge and not baseball people. MLB is first and foremost a business (an oligopoly). And business is driven by profit, and profit is driven by winning (usually). So the nerds come up with these strategies to give the team the best shot at winning. The Dodgers hire the most and best nerds and generally own the regular season. However, they have not been as successful in playoffs. Are those results due to poor nerd information or poor baseball execution. Let the baseball players play. Don’t stifle them with scenario driven strategy. See ball/hit ball. Field ball/throw ball.
I will always love the Dodgers, but I acknowledge that my love for the game of baseball has waned. I am more than a bit nostalgic for the great game of the 60’s and 70’s. Yes, I am the proverbial old man yelling at the screen for today’s players to get off my grass.
Discussion (37)
Disagree, not disagreeable
DODGERS ADD JAMES OUTMAN, JACOB AMAYA, EDDYS LEONARD, JORBIT VIVAS AND MICHAEL GROVE TO 40-MAN ROSTER
LOS ANGELES – Los Angeles Dodgers added outfielder James Outman, infielders Jacob Amaya, Eddys Leonard, Jorbit Vivas and pitcher Michael Grove to the 40-Man Roster.
Outman, 24, split the season between High-A Great Lakes and Double-A Tulsa, batting a combined .266 (110-for-414) with 21 doubles, 18 homers and 54 RBI last season. He finished the season with the Drillers, batting .289 with nine homers and 24 RBI in 39 Double-A contests. He was originally drafted in the seventh round of the 2018 First-Year Player Draft out of Sacramento State University and has played in 278 games in his minor league career with the Dodgers, batting .249 (265-for-1064) with 48 homers and 143 RBI. He was named to the Arizona Fall League All-Star Game last Saturday and has hit .292 (19-for-65) with seven doubles, three homers, 10 RBI with a .994 OPS in 20 games for the Glendale Desert Dogs.
Amaya, 23, played in 113 games for Double-A Tulsa in 2021, batting .216 (90-for-417) with 12 homers and 47 RBI. He has appeared in 18 Arizona Fall League games, batting .320 (16-for-50) with three doubles, three homers and six RBI. In four minor league seasons with the Dodgers, he is batting .254 (311-for-1449) with 25 homers and 161 RBI. The local product was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 11th round of the 2017 First Year Player Draft out of South Hills High School.
Leonard, 21, split the season between Low-A Rancho Cucamonga and High-A Great Lakes, batting a combined .296 (126-for-425) with 29 doubles, 22 homers and 81 RBI. He has played in seven games for his native Escogido team in the Dominican Republic, recording two hits and two RBI. He has been with the Dodgers organization three seasons, across four different levels, amassing 30 homers and 118 RBI in 207 minor league games. The Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic product was originally signed by the Dodgers as an international free agent on July 3, 2017.
Vivas, 20, batted .312 (129-for-477) with 26 doubles, 14 homers and 87 RBI between Rancho Cucamonga and Great Lakes. He has been with the Dodgers three seasons, batting a combined .389 (233-for-928) with 16 homers and 130 RBI. He was originally signed by the Dodgers as an international free agent on July 4, 2017.
Grove, 24, pitched in 21 games (19 starts) for the Tulsa Drillers in 2021, going 1-4 with a 7.86 ERA (62 ER/71.0 IP) and 88 strikeouts. In two seasons with the Dodgers organization, he has posted a 1-9 record with a combined 7.12 ERA (97 ER/122.2 IP) and 61 strikeouts. He was drafted by the Dodgers in the second round of the 2018 First Year Player Draft out of West Virginia University.
Here’s the rest:
Added: Amaya, Outman, Leonard, Grove, Vivas
DFA’d: McKinney, Reks
Maybe I missed it above, but I don’t see that anyone mentioned that Amaya has been added to the 40 man. No word of anyone else yet.
NYY just DFA’d Clint Frazier. He had a horrendous 2021, but did have a respectable three previous seasons. He is a RH hitting OF who has never been able to crack the NYY OF, and he certainly will not crack the starting lineup for LAD. But he is better than Billy McKinney, Zach Reks, and Luke Raley. He is younger than Reks, and McKinney/Raley/Frazier are just about the same age. 27 days separate the three with McKinney the oldest and Raley the youngest. He is not my first, second, third…choice, but I would DFA any of the three to add Frazier. I would much rather had Frazier batting over Souza.
NYY also DFA’s Rougned Odor and Tyler Wade. Both are LH hitters. I would take McKinstry over both Odor and Wade.
This is where AF gets creative.
Former LAD prospect Donovan Casey was added to the 40 man today. Casey was the third part of the Scherzer/Turner trade. I am happy for Casey. Born in NJ and went to Boston College, so Washington DC is closer to his family. Good for him.
i bet dodgers are either trying to trade someone to open up a spot negotiating a signing to replace a guy they are dropping
I would love to Seager get an 8 year contract that pays annually a $15MM base plus $4MM that kicks in at 300 PA, 400 PA, 500 PA, and 600 PA.
Trade for Buxton and extend him with the same contract.
Nobody should be paid huge salaries that don’t earn them on the field.
I checked something a little while ago. I wanted to see how many hitting coaches I knew as players. Out of 30 teams, I knew 10. And only 3 assistant hitting coaches. I know Hyers because he worked for the Dodgers. Seems to me someone who actually played the game professionally would be a better fit for a team like the Dodgers. The personal touch is missing anymore. I seem to remember the players swore by Reggie Smith when he was there.
How about a 3-year $100 Million Dollar Deal?
Then when he is 31, and maybe moves positions, he can sign another deal.
FWIW, pursuant to a recent report form Matthew Roberson of the NY Daily News, NYY is no longer interested in either Corey Seager or Carlos Correa. They want a stopgap defensive minded SS until Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza are ready to assume the position.
Is it possible for me to get out of comment jail? My comments are certainly not profound, but I try not to be offensive either.
Rangers meet with Story.
Tommy Davis used to say he always looked to hit a line drive up the middle and if the pitch came inside he would only have to make a smaller adjustment to pull it or it if were outside to go the other way.
I think hitters more often think of the first pitch as an opportunity to pull and elevate and wind up taking the strike if it is not located where they want it for such a swing. I think the best way to beat the shift is to look for a pitch that they can punch into the hole of the shift beginning with the first pitch and keep looking for such a pitch until they have two strikes. Then, they would then be best served going to Tommy Davis’ thought pattern.
It all comes down to what a hitter wants to do with an at bat. That should fluctuate depending on the score, the inning, and the number of runners on base.
I have seen, small sample size, a lot of ground balls that the first baseman can’t reach but the second baseman can only because he can position himself closer to first because the shortstop is on the first base side of second. A lot of ground balls to the right side are outs with the shift that were hits before the shift. How do historical batting averages adjust to that for comparison sakes? The shift has encouraged hitters to get the ball in the air.
I wonder if pitchers would have the outside pitch taken away from them if hitters were always looking to punch the ball to the opposite side. If that pitch is taken away, pitchers will argue against the shift. Congress couldn’t agree on a $15 minimum wage but when enough workers wouldn’t take jobs at lower wages, we now see hiring ads saying starting wages from $15 to $20 an hour. If the shift can’t attract outs, it too will offer changes–a market based approach.
The MLB should charge more per minute for an ad instead of increasing the number of ads between innings and run banner ads at the bottom on the screen during the game.
Yes to ABS. Yes to larger bags. No to keeping a tag on runners and calling them out if they come off the bag for less than a half second, maybe even 3/4 of a second with no replay review when it is obvious it is a fraction of a second at best that the runner came off the bag.
Lots of fun reading today, thanks guys.
I saw a TV interview about 20 years ago, of a French woman who was 112, I think. They were saying that she was the oldest living human at the time. I didn’t take notes, so I’m sure this isn’t completely accurate, but it’s what I recall, and you will get the gist.
She appeared to be knowledgeable about current events, was mentally sharp, had a sense of humor, and seemed very positive about life. She laughed often during the interview, mostly at herself.
I can’t recall who was interviewing her (possibly Tom Snyder), but she was asked if she had any regrets. I can’t quote her, but she said she still enjoyed life, appreciated all the kind people and beauty around her.
Still, she said she probably lived 20 to 30 years too long. She observed that she had living family, but none that remembered the family with whom she grew up and got old. I think she said her great great great grandchildren were having babies. All her close family, friends, ways of living and talking and socializing were changed or gone, and she would prefer to have not outlived them.
Many of the comments today reminded me of that interview. Not angry or terribly unhappy, just missing some of how it used to be.
I relate to much of it, but having spent most of my 50 working years doing something with computers and the genius kids who are now growing up with them, I think the changes in the game that we resist and resent are likely inevitable, and ultimately good.
If we want the game to live on, we will have to allow it to become a game the new generations will enjoy. They don’t love board games, they love computer games. They trust computers to be accurate sources of information, and they know how to use them for analysis, and that knowledge and capability is expanding daily.
Change or die. Change is the better alternative.
And for the record, there are two changes I detest,.and I can’t see either going away, which makes me dislike them even more.
1. TV timeouts, the real cause of the slow pace of today’s game, and 2. MLB’s relationship s with gambling, the major reason the cheaters were allowed to get off scott free.
Okay. Shutting up… finally.
Multiple teams seem to be interested in Taylor, including the Red Sox who would like to install him at 2nd and keep Kike in CF. Cardinals and Giants also in the hunt. Rockies extended C Elias Diaz for 3 years, buying out his 2 arbitration years and a year of free agency. Manfred believes there will be a lockout. Got my Covid booster today. Feel alright, arm is not even sore…yet.
random thought:
i want to sign seager and move him immediately to 3b
move justin turner to dh
if no dh, move jt to 1b and shift muncy to 2b
either way trea is our ss
let lux play some left field and be a super sub
I agree with Mark when he lists all the positive statistics of the offense, the RVS method works, that is undeniable, there are the results but I also agree with you when you say that it is not for all players, I think players like Justin Turner, Muncy, Smith works very well, I also think that there are players like Bellinger, Lux affects them, if they only looked for contact and took advantage of their legs they would be better hitters, in the case of Belli the HR would arrive alone, I think Lux has More than anyone else, it has affected him but I liked what he said in an interview in September, when he was hitting very well, something like: “I just want to be a nightmare, I want to be a stone in his shoe in every AB” , that’s the correct approach Lux should have according to her tools, Belli could hit more AVG and be a 30-30.
The question I ask myself is: the Dodgers won 106 games, if the RVS method were complemented with more SB and situational hitting would they have won more games?
My answer is: I don’t know, what I do know is that the team’s game was more entertaining and more fun.
I saw in October that the Dodgers stole a lot of bases and I am hopeful that that will lead to next season, just take advantage of the tools that various players have on the team.
Great stuff as always Jeff. You nailed the hit on the head…..or hit the nail right on the head. Late last evening I watched Moneyball again. It is amazing that Beane is still running the team 20 years after that season, 2002 is depicted. He is still chasing the same dream, and unlike a couple of his students, he has not achieved that World Series ring. His teams have won the division 5 times, finished 2nd 5 times, lost one ALCS and 5 ALDS series and have been eliminated as the Wild Card twice. At least the Dodgers have gotten to 3 World Series. As for what Cobb said about Ruth, well the difference is Babe could actually rake. He was a career .342 hitter. No hitter in either league came within 13 points of that this season. Guerriel hit .311 in the AL. 5 of the top 10 hitters were under .300 in the AL. Turner led the NL with a .328 avg. The NL only had 2 of the top 10 under .300. When Yaz won his last batting title in 68, he did it with a .301 avg. Rose led the NL that year with a .335 avg. Were the pitchers in the AL that much better, or were the hitters that bad? I tend to think it was a little of both. 68 was the year of the pitcher. Gibson won the Cy Young and the NL MVP, then his Cardinals got beat by the Tigers and Mickey Lolich. Lolich won 3 games in the Series and the AL Cy Young, Denny McLain, who won 31 games, 1. I also think the approach taught by RVS is not player friendly. I doubt very much that Yasiel Puig would have flourished under RVS the way he did when Turner Ward was the hitting coach. I looked at the latest hires around the majors and I do not recognize any of those names. Hyers going to the Rangers was the one I did know. And all of the teams are now hiring multiple hitting coaches. Willie, Mickey and the Duke would be livid. I have railed against the way the game is played now for years. And it definitely is not better or more entertaining baseball. I went to Dodger Stadium in different years where the team was fighting for a pennant. And 62 was so memorable. Wills would get on base and the chants would start…go go go go. When he did go, the stadium would collectively hold their breath until the call was made. When it was safe, the ball park would erupt. The stadium is different now. Fans are different. They like the long ball. The diving catch. They cheer when a stolen base is successful, but nothing like they did with Wills. When Big D took the mound, you did not wonder if he was going to brush back a hitter. It was a matter of when. And if he or Sandy did not finish the game, you felt a little cheated. Yep, a different game entirely. Give me Willie making a basket catch, Roberto gunning down a runner trying to stretch a single to a double, and Mick, hitting one out from both sides of the plate anyday to this version.
Great comments and opinions today. Jeff stated “Every era has its own trends. MLB hitting leaders are almost all pre-WWII. But they never had to face the tough Negro League players. How might that have impacted the game?”
For sure the lack of talent pool was way watered down before African-American, Hispanic, Oriental, Aussies and all the international talent came to the game.
And great pitching talent has been kept in the game since the development of Tommy John and other advance medical procedures. I think it was the All-Star Game a few years ago when 1/2 the pitching roster consisted of guys who had at least one TJ surgery. Obviously that talent would have been out of the game before. How might have Koufax’s career been prolonged with today’s advances?
It’s never been harder to hit and I think the nerds work has helped the pitchers more than the hitters.
The Rule 5 Draft protection of MiLB prospects has begun. Seattle has protected 3 thus far, including uber prospect OF Julio Rodriguez. Also protected were OF Alberto Rodriguez and LHRP Ray Kerr. The Dodgers currently have 37 on the 40 man roster, and I do not think that is by accident. If the Dodgers wanted to protect 4, one of the AAAA players would already have been jettisoned. So I am projecting that the Dodgers will protect OF James Outman, SS Jacob Amaya, 2B/SS Eddys Leonard. The biggest exposure IMO will be SS/3B Jorbit Vivas. The same is true for SS Leonel Valera. I think because he did not reach AA, teams will be reluctant to hide them on their 26 man and really lose a year of development that he needs. Others that could conceivably be drafted could be RHP Michael Grove. He is a potential RP who could be hid and have his development continue with a bottom third team in the pen. LAD has more than sufficient replacement arms for Grove. Omar Estevez and Justin Yurchak with Yurchak seen as the better option.
With the addition of the three, that would put the roster right at 40, and that would preclude the Dodgers of selecting a Rule 5 draftee. I cannot remember the last MLB Rule 5 draft player they selected. They are far more likely to select in the MiLB phase.
Many of the veteran commenters on LADT and the predecessor will remember MJ. MJ was very passionate for her dislike of the new metrics. She could never be convinced that a strikeout was an acceptable outcome when a batted ball could move a runner or be subject to error. She was far more keen on BA than OBP. Do not get her started on OPS and WAR. I miss her more than I miss old time baseball.
There is room in baseball for both small ball and the HR. I don’t believe that either one necessarily excludes the other. This battle goes all of the way back to when Babe Ruth changed the game forever and Ty Cobb and others berated him as an unskillful player.
“According to Ty Cobb, baseball was a “game of hit-and-run, the steal and double steal, the bunt in all its wonderful varieties, the squeeze, the ball hit to the opposite field and the ball punched through openings in the defense for a single”.”
” “As a batter, Ruth is an accident,” an article in The Sporting News said. “He never plays inside baseball at the plate. He goes up trying to take a swing on every strike, a style that would cause any other player to be benched. He either knocks home runs or strikes out. Any man who strikes out as many times as Ruth did last year [1921] can never be classified as a great hitter”.”
Why can’t we have both?
Jeff, I am right there with you and don’t really care for this new-age baseball stuff. I continue to watch my Dodgers play but am frustrated every year at the lack of hitting for average. Home runs and the launch angle/swing as hard as you can mentality are exactly why they peter out come Sept. and cannot hit in Oct. I miss the stolen base and the small ball approach in general. Richy Henderson was a brash loudmouth arrogant SOB but man, he could steal a base! (just kidding, hear he is a decent guy)
I am hoping and praying to the baseball gods that they get rid of the shift. Not sure how I feel about the universal DH because that is another nail in the small ball coffin. And the money these guys get!? Damn, one game of Gerrit Cole money would set most of us up for years. Oh, well. As they say, time changes everything. Guess that includes baseball. ☺
I’d be truly shocked if ANYONE thought the current game is as enjoyable or fun to watch as it used to be. I don’t consider those two terms to by synonymous.
It’s a very tough watch. And, to make it more pessimistic, I don’t think we’re anywhere near diminishing returns from a performance standpoint. It’s all about efficiency and baseball is a very fun game to drill down in.
It’s still a great game on aggregate though, and it’s very fun to get into the data and see how decisions are made and why. But it’s a slog for the games.
PS: I think the pitch clock will be very helpful to the pace, which is yet another issue. I’m had it with the batters and their between pitch routines.
PPS: Please stop diminishing nerds. They are great and the lifeblood of economy, medicine and sport. Let’s celebrate them and find ways to make their contribution more palatable to the general public.
Fantastic stuff Jeff on the state of the game today. I share so many of your opinions. I still enjoy a Manager who will make decisions based on his gut but those guys are harder and harder to find. I often remind fans that the players aren’t robots. But the information from the nerds is making game decisions robotic. The freedom and instincts of the greatest players like a Willie Mays gets stifled and scripted by the nerds.
I wonder, how much information is needed. Where is point of diminishing returns? How many pencil-necks and computers do you need crunching data? 10? 50? How much of this information can actually be used? When does paralysis from analysis take the human element out of the game?
Mark mentioned the changes in fall ball this year. I will add that the ABS System was only used at Salt River. If you watched the All-Star Game, it was in use I think.
Here is a link to the early reviews form October:
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2021/10/20/22735222/arizona-fall-league-rule-changes-not-good-so-far
I enjoy the speed of play in fall ball. Fewer mid-inning pitching changes, fewer pinch hitters and the clocks speed up play. Many rules that are in MiLB are common with players coming up are rejected by MLBPA once these players make the bigs. So I don’t think it’s the players who are objecting to these rules, especially to speed up play.
When I’ve seen the ABS in use, it’s been seamless and not noticeable. That’s despite the 22 walk game that was blamed on the system. I believe the pitchers had a hand in that one.
Good stuff.
ok here’s my luis castillo trade offer:
pepiot
grove
carson taylor
probably needs a better secondary prospect but i made up for it by including a wild card as the third
Probably the single biggest thing I miss about baseball as it used to be during my youth [basically, 1980s] is the starting pitchers going deep into games, complete games, and concept of a game being based around the match-up between the starting pitchers. I remember looking forward to a three-game series and trying to figure out what the rotation battles would be. Now, as we have seen, this really accounts for very little (I realize this opinion will be jumped on but oh well). Yes, it’s nice to have a good arm on the mound but what does it matter if you’re just going to bring in a reliever in the 6th when your guy either gasses out, hits a high pitch count number (100 is basically the reddest of red flags these days) or gets into a jam that the manager decides a different arm would be better to help get out of?
Baseball is almost certainly worse as a product than it used to be. As a Dodger fan, I have become spoiled by these All-Star lineups we put out; but the results haven’t quite matched the hype. Too many disappointments and too many micro-managerial decisions. Let ’em play.
Excellent rant, Jeff. Totally agree.
Since players can’t seem to adjust or simply won’t bunt during the extreme shifts, it’s time for the shifts to go. Shifts are changing the game in a very unfortunate way. Someone drills a line drive into right or right center, caught by the rover. Ridiculous. Baseball needs more action, not less.
Yes, the game has definitely changed. Money is one problem. Cost to go to a game another. Lack of action definitely a problem. . Not just stolen bases, but being able to go first to third. Too much focus on power, not enough on putting the ball in play. Look how much excitement Maury Wills created back in the day.
It’s easy to see analytics has messed up the game and the fact that most starters leave the game after five or maybe six innings is a problem. Maybe they fear the pitcher with the massive contract getting hurt, but isn’t that why you gave him the big contract in the first place? Go deep into games, save the bullpen.
Walks are fine, but the problem with that is converting them into runs. Remember when Max Muncy was walking all the time early in the season, letting good pitches to hit go past? The Dodgers needed Muncy to swing the bat, which he finally did and run production went up.
One of the things you appreciate about Trea Turner, not only does he hit for power, but he steals bases, even scores from first on a hit into the gap. A slow grounder can become a hit. That’s exciting. Even “the slide” was one of the highlights of the season.
That’s why the Dodgers need to keep Turner. Batting champ, stolen base leader, all the speed and some power too.
Mookie Betts is certainly an exciting player for many of the same reasons. Add Chris Taylor into that mix, the only drawback the high number of swing and miss at bats.
No question the game needs to change. Probably one of the most exciting games I’ve been too had a home run, a couple of triples, a few doubles, a sac fly and a close play at the plate, a double steal and a squeeze play, all packed into one game.
If I were running baseball, the DH would be added into the NL, the shift would be over with two players on each side of second, every team would get one day off a week, Monday or Thursday, to help with the grind of a long season. If you want a team to play a Sunday night game, they get Monday off.
I’m really tired of the massive contracts. They seldom work out. I’ve heard that the increasing size of contracts has no impact of fans, listened to numerous people make that argument on MLB radio. Nonsense. If payrolls and high player costs don’t impact the pocketbooks of fans, then why raise ticket prices every year? Not to mention parking, food, drink and merchandise.
I get it. The union wants to push contracts higher. So do agents. But honestly how much money do you need? The NFL and NBA already price out families. Will baseball soon follow. Kids and families are what makes baseball better. You can actually afford to take your family to a game. How much longer will that be true? That will be a loss that baseball might not recover from. Anybody think that comes up in CBA negotiations?
Just the other day we talked about the old days versus current times, access to players and all. How it was better back in the day. No question MLB understood that and teams made more of an effort to create better access. Will they understand the cost issue?
Yes, AJ Pollock is a fun player. Always liked or should I say hated seeing him play for the DBacks back in the day. I loved the signing, hated by many. Hey, I also thought signing Trevor Bauer was a good idea too. So I’m one for two.
The Arizona Fall League implement the following rules this year:
1. 15 – second pitch clock
2. Automatic Ball Strike System (using the Hawkeye System)
3. Pitchcom Communications (between pitcher, catcher, and defenders)
4. Limit of 2 pickoffs per PA
5. Defense Positioning (infielders required to stay on dirt with two on each side of 2B)
6. Base size is increased from 15″ to 18″
I have no problems with any of that. It would add more scoring… I think!
Question forJeff;
Interesting comparison between 2000 and now. But to what extent has the movement to shorter outings by pitchers (and not seeing a lineup a third time) as well as increasing use of relievers within a given game lowered the numbers you cite? and along those lines to what extent has the trends in pitcher use necessitated the need for home runs ( as it’s hard to string hits together). Not disagreeing with you, hitting definitely is on a downswing but is the current trend a response ( and not necessarily a good one) to pitcher usage?
I agree with much of this as always AC. Very nice job breaking this down. The following really stood out to me…
I will never be convinced that RVS can adequately coach a TEAM on hitting, but I also concede that he will not be terminated as he does “coach” what the LAD Front Office espouses. MT listed a slew of metrics showcasing his position that RVS is the right choice. My response was that those metrics measured the talent far more than the coaching.
I feel this same statement can be applied to Doc. He’s not a good manager, but the talent on the team makes up for his shortcomings and he implements the script that’s provided by the front office, so he’ll keep his job.
The thing that frustrates me the most is that he’ll ignore the hot hand in favor of past performance which is basically the problem with statistic driven decision making. By the time you have a large enough sample size to adjust your strategy based on statistics, it’s often too late to react. You can look at the shift and stolen bases to back up this argument. Like AC said, with catchers concentrating on stealing calls from the umpire, they have gotten into some pretty bad habits like dropping that knee to get a low strike. Starling Marte, out of nowhere stole 47 bases and was only caught 5 times. He made an adjustment without waiting for statistics to tell him it would be beneficial. The shift is driving me absolutely crazy. It seems like the Dodgers give up shift hits constantly, but never seem to get them.
I’m often hard on three true outcome players. I haven’t been a huge Muncy fan because of this, although he did cut down on his strikeouts this past year and seemed better for it for a while. But, a prolonged slump put his numbers back on track with his 2019 season.
I felt that AJ Pollock was one of the more interesting hitters on the team this year. Both ended up with about the same OPS, but they got there in different ways. It just felt like AJ was more exciting because he put the bat on the ball more often. Sure, Max’s big blasts were fun to watch, but it seemed like AJ was keeping the inning going more often.
I don’t know if my love for the game has changed as a result of the changes in the game. I watch baseball more than any other sport. But, I prefer seeing more baserunners and more action on the field. I miss contact on plays at the plate and runners breaking up double plays and I hate how replay has changed swipe tags on stolen bases and neighborhood plays on double plays. I fear that the automated strike zone will ultimately change the game for the worse. I respect the law of unintended consequences and think a system like that really needs time to bake in the minors or Independent leagues before we screw up the major league game with hasty decisions. But, I would absolutely love to see them implement some kind of extreme shift rule. Three infielders on the dirt at all times and 2 on each side of second base would do it for me.
They need to fix the part where the best team doesn’t always win.
“ We are now having theoreticians in charge and not baseball people”. To echo your complaint about the game; theory like mist on eyeglasses obscure vision.
Outstanding column.
Another excellent post by Jeff. Very persuasive and thorough, but I still want RVS gone.
Excellent vent this morning Jeff. Those dollar figures per inning and per hit are just unimaginable. Appreciate your writing sir.
The problem with BA and OB% is not just with the Dodgers… all teams are experiencing it. I think the causes are:
1. Analytics provides better positioning of fielders and pitchers have more information on where to throw the ball to hitters (if they can hit that spot); and
2. Stacking 3 or 4 players on one side of the field also contributes.
I think MLB will ban the shift this winter.
Of course, some will say, “just hit it the other way.” Yeah, if you are LH, lets see you hit an inside slider to LF!