The Dominos are Ready to Fall
Speculation is rampant. The rumors are swirling. For baseball writers, “breaking a story” is a badge of honor and akin to winning the Writers’ World Series, so sometimes they see a story… even when there is none. So far, no significant deals or signings have occurred unless the…
Speculation is rampant. The rumors are swirling. For baseball writers, “breaking a story” is a badge of honor and akin to winning the Writers’ World Series, so sometimes they see a story… even when there is none. So far, no significant deals or signings have occurred unless the Braves trade for Kelnick, Gonzalez, and White seems like it is a blockbuster (it isn’t) or Wade Miley signing is a revelation. All is quiet, but the teams in on Ohtani also have a Plan B… so we wait!
It would seem that Ohtani is that first domino and we are all waiting for it to fall. The Dodgers have the deepest pockets and are expected by many to sign Shohei Ohtani, but we also need to remember that the Dodgers’ principal ownership group is Guggenheim, and they represent hundreds of thousands… maybe even millions (I have no clue) of investors. Investors demand a return as well as dividends. It would appear that the Dodgers are poised to go over the Luxury Tax Threshold again in 2024 for the fourth time in a row. The penalty will be steep next year, but in the fifth year, it will go up even more.
If the Dodgers do sign Ohtani and go in big on a couple of starters and all the trimmings, it is a signal to me that they are likely to sell the team in the next two to three years! Guggenheim, led by Mark Walter, bought the Dodgers for an insane $2.1 Billion Dollars. I could see them selling the team for $8 Billion! That’s right – EIGHT BILLION! They may love baseball, but this is a business, and businesses are made to be sold, and every business person knows that. So… we wait…. and wait…
We did learn that Mookie Betts is allegedly going to be the Dodgers’ starting second baseman in 2024. I think that is a good move, as it takes miles a game off of his legs. Playing 100% of the time in the infield will energize and engage Mookie to make him even better! I think it is a great move. I will have to be sold on Gavin Lux… and I am open to it, but I am from Missouri, and he is going to have to “show me” that he is a short stop! I remain skeptical…
JDM wants to be a Dodger for a year or two more, and so he is waiting in the wings in case the Dodgers do not sign Ohtani. There are so many options… Why is everyone convinced that Ohtani will pitch again in 2025, and then the same people say, “We can’t be certain that Walker Buehler will come back?” They both had torn UCLs. It was the second time for both. Why do many “assume” that Ohtani will be back on the mound and yet unsure of Buehler? It’s wishful thinking! A second torn UCL recovery is a crapshoot! There are no guarantees. We have to wait and see!
At worst, Ohtani and Buehler will never pitch again. At best, they may pitch for another three to five years! This is just the beginning. When will that BIG Domino fall? I am headed to Lost Wages… I mean Las Vegas this afternoon. I will be in the air for four hours, but otherwise, I will be available. Breaking news is likely! The LA Times said it best:
The stove should be turned all the way up this week. Ohtani is a transcendent, unparalleled two-way, two-time MVP on the cusp of signing the richest contract in North American sports history. He is the most marketable talent in the sport. His decision could shift the league’s landscape.
— Jorge Castillo, The LA Times
But nobody on the outside — not even the teams trying to lure him — has a clue where Ohtani is signing. Nobody knows, for sure, what Ohtani’s demands or priorities are. Nobody knows, for sure, which teams interest Ohtani. Nobody knows which clubs, if any, have met with Ohtani yet.
The Dodgers, Angels, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants are among the potential landing spots. His price could be anywhere between $500 million and $600 million. But if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen, they’re probably lying. Speculation is thick on thin information. The stove is light on gas.
That’s by design. Ohtani, 29, has always been shrouded in secrecy as a public figure. But the secrecy has risen to another, strange level in recent months.
Ohtani, who only speaks to reporters during the season on days he pitches, hasn’t spoken to the media since Aug. 9.
Two weeks later, he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, ending his season as a pitcher. He chose to continue hitting through Sept. 3 until sustaining an oblique strain. The next day, Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, held an unusual news conference with reporters and declined to specify what was wrong with Ohtani’s elbow.
Ohtani then underwent surgery on his elbow Sept. 19. In a peculiar twist, the Angels released a statement through his agency CAA announcing the development, but the type of procedure was missing. It was later reported by The Times’ Dylan Hernández that Ohtani had undergone what everyone assumed: Tommy John surgery.
Last month, Ohtani’s scheduled conference call with reporters after being named American League MVP was mysteriously canceled. National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., meanwhile, hopped on a call with the media while in uniform before a game in the Venezuelan winter league.
Coincidentally, Ohtani and Balelo have been very protective of the free-agent process — just as they were when Ohtani came over from Japan and chose a club in December 2017. ESPN recently reported that Ohtani’s camp warned clubs that any media leaks would be held against them. Developments, as a result, have been limited because teams are afraid of angering him.
Does that sound like a guy you want on your team? Not to me…
Parting Shots
- I look for defensive improvement from Max Muncy in his second year at 3B. With Mookie and Freddie entrenched at 2B and 1B respectively, he can hone his skills at 3B, knowing that is his only option. He will never be Brooks Robinson, but he might be above average. At least he was not horrible in 2023.
- Who will Jonny DeLuca be the platoon partner for? Jason Heyward or James Outman? It remains to be seen, but both players may need a partner. If I had to guess, I would say DeLuca platoons with Heyward and Kike Hernandez platoons with James Outman. Before you jump all over me about platooning Outman, consider this: Outman OPS’ed .835 against RHP, but just .665 against LHP. He hit a HR every 130 ABs against LHP and a HR every 16 ABs against RHP. Unless he can improve dramatically against LHP, he should be platooned! James crushes RHP while Kike crushes LHP (Career .801 OPS).
- Of course, either Vargas or Busch could be traded (or both), but LF could also be a platoon between them. I am not predicting that – just that it is a possibility.
- The Dodgers do not need both Miguel Rojas and CT3, even though Rojas is a superb SS. I am a big Austin Barnes and Miguel Rojas fan, but both could be gone by Spring.
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Discussion (201)
Disagree, not disagreeable
yes dodgerrick, a patrick corbin. a rich hill. a tim anderson ( i wanted him once i admit), and so on. beginning to believe nothing of significance happens in dodger town. i’m willing to be patient until someone signs ohtani, if it’s the dodgers so be it. glad i live in va. so i won’t have to pay 30 dollars for a beer at dodger stadium!
m
1 – Where’s Johnny DeLuca’s track record? At this point he’s a possible contributor but not the sure thing that many posters seem to assume.
2 – The Dodgers’ biggest weakness is still the rotation. They are unlikely to sign any SP to a long-term deal (pitchers break) so I remain convinced that they will trade for one of the guys people are talking about (Glasnow, Burnes, Cease, et al) and will sign a reclamation project or a mid-tier free agent to a short term deal.
3 – This means that it makes some economic sense for them to sign a superstar. Ohtani? Maybe. Although like Mark and others, I fear the “boat anchor” contract.
4 – The Dodgers under Friedman have pulled many surprise moves. There’s going to be something that happens that no one would expect.
nationals won 55 games in 2022. they won 71 games this season. so it would not be a surprise if they got close to .500. not a playoff team but they could be very competitive. Bear, would you trade Busch and a pitcher, (sheehan) for Thomas? love your insight and baseball knowledge!
If LAD sign Ohtani great. Maybe he doesn’t pitch again, but he won’t be stuck as a DH in that scenario. If Mookie on the dirt going forward Ohtani could slide into right field. If he can pitch, I’d keep a short leash in him so he’s ready for October when premium arms are most important. They’ll still make a move or two for rotation with Ohtani. Burnes, Cease, Imagana, etc.
If they don’t sign Ohtani, I’d guess they pivot hard to Yamamoto. Even if his career ERA in Japan doubled in MLB he’d be an ACE. Stuff plays, and he has STUFF. Then another ace pitcher somehow. And probably bring JDM back to bash.
Regardless, something needs to change in the team mentality. They’re all nice guys from ownership on down. That’s great off the field. But it doesn’t win championships.
Sound from the Dodgers this winter meetings…………….crickets.
The Dodgers may not need Ohtani to play in October but if they want to win in October then help is needed. His bat goes a long way to solving our lack of offense in the playoffs. And another big RH corner OF bat helps even more.
thomas would be a nice addition Bear. but washington is getting better and do you think washington would move him? an everyday left fielder would be a great christmas gift. i know , dodgers love versatility, they love platoons. they need a above average player in left. so if Thomas is available, go get him. if not, hoskins will do
A writer in the LA Times wrote the Dodgers want Ohtani, but don’t really need him. That rings true. The Dodgers won a hundred games last year. All the injuries to starting pitchers and they won the NL West and won a hundred or more games for the third year in a row.
So, do the Dodgers really need Ohtani? No, they don’t. Do they want him? Absolutely! Will they get him? Pretty much everybody in Nashville thinks so. But there is always the mystery team and Ohtani isn’t talking. For all we know, he wants to play in Las Vegas.
But as everybody has speculated, the Dodgers seem to fit what Ohtani is looking for and, even though that’s all speculation, logic indicates it’s probably true. His doctor, the one who did his surgery, is one of the team physicians. The Dodgers win and go to the playoffs every year. They have a really good team and a strong farm system. They have exceptional management and are always looking for an edge. They have money, a great stadium, iconic history and don’t forget the fan base and the weather. LA also has a significant Japanese population. The Dodgers lead MLB in attendance every year. He could lead them to a World Series title and Parade. All the boxes have apparently been checked. At least all within the speculation dome.
According to one story, he already knows where he wants to go. If that’s true, just sign the deal and announce it. Remember when the Dodgers did the dog and pony show for Ohtani years ago. afterward Clayton Kershaw called it a waste of time, Ohtani had already decided, then he signed with the Angels. The decision has probably been made this time around and they’re just playing it out.
What the Dodgers really need and Dave Roberts pointed that out yesterday is starting pitching. Gomes has said it, Friedman has said it, all the pundits and analysts have said it. Bear has said it repeatedly. Mark has written about it. Many others on this site have said it. Must be true.
As far as what Roberts said about Ohtani, he didn’t violate any sacred rules. He merely talked about what a great player he has become, just like every person at the resort has pointed out.
He didn’t talk about the Dodgers pursuit of the player or what kind of offer the organization was making, reportedly between $500 and $600 million.
He’s not allowed to talk about those details, apparently an MLB edict.
Seems like a trend the Dodgers making a competitive (losing) offer and the player signs with another team, Soto, Nola, Harper, Cole. Now Roberts opens his mouth when Ohtanis group said if anyone mentions anything they will be taken out of the bidding. Washington from the Angels refused to comment so as to not affect anything.
taylor is not an everyday player. he is a role player. at times a very good one! but his strikeout rate is not good.
I wouldn’t assume Deluca will be the roving RH platoon partner for Heyward, Outman etc. We could easily upgrade that spot and keep him in AAA as a full-time starter/understudy.
Similarly, Rojas is just fine for what he is. I dont understand why they dont just give CT3 the LF job.
Still waiting on an SP. Cease or Giolito seems realistic. I refuse to engage in Brewer trade speculation.
It’s interesting when baseball stars don’t embrace celebrity.
First there was Mike Trout, the best player in the game and he wanted no part in becoming the superstar celebrity the game needs, now Shohei Ohtani. Where has Babe Ruth gone? No one willing to step up. No Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays. No Reggie Jackson.
Basketball has had many stars — Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and LeBron James. Who is the face of baseball? No, not the best player, the actual face of the game today. Football had Tom Brady. Soccer has several megastars.
That face would, no doubt, be Ohtani, but he’s like a mime. The best player in the world and he’s hiding out. Soon to be the most highly paid player in MLB and he’s off the radar. Not so sure this is good for the game. Everybody is waiting for the Ohtani domino to fall and everything breaks loose. It’s the Winter Meetings, after all. Part of the reason for the winter meetings is to create excitement for the game and create buzz among the fans.
A Wednesday morning announcement would create that. Otherwise it’s Ho-hum and other sports and sport stars move past baseball. Wonder why baseball is slip sliding away when compared to other sports. Baseball needs a Taylor Swift moment.
saying for 2 weeks hoskins would be perfect fit ((if healthy). can always bring CT in as a defensive replacement late in games. but i really like his bat . if healthy he’s a better athlete than JD , and the dodgers considered using JD in left field last season. i would trade for Cease, sign the japanese lefty, sign seth lugo . try and trade barnes, rojas. i’m not opposed to bringing kiki back, but i wouldn’t take too many AB’s away from outman unless he has sophomore struggles. then i would consider making an in season trade. again, this all falls on ohtani! i’m starting to hope for him to resign with the angels. i’m starting to believe you’re right Mark, any team that signs ohtani will be handicapped for the next 8-10 years. he’ll sign JD for 1 years and go after Soto next year . i’m not a huge fan of him, but he’s not a good outfielder or base runner, but that stick would be nice for a few years. he’ll mookie and freddie might teach him some manners . he might help get fired up a little more!
The Giants are said to be the front-runner for Yamamoto and the asking price is rising. Some are speculating at least 300 million for the Japanese star. If that is his price, forget him and target Imanaga. Dodgers will never pay that much for just a pitcher. DeRosa on MLB-Tonight made the suggestion that because he has averaged only 81 innings a year in his MLB career, that Ohtani might consider becoming a closer. It is fairer to the team and the other pitchers since he pitches every six days. Unless teams are willing to go to a six-man rotation, which at this point with starting pitchers at a premium, seems very unlikely. They also pointed out that the Dodgers are lefty heavy in the outfield and on the roster and desperately need a RH thumper.