The Dodgers Zig while others Zag

A very weird offseason indeed.  This year’s free agent class featured some high-end talent and at the top of the list was Aaron Judge fresh off of a record-setting 62 home run season to go along with an astonishing 10.6 WAR.   A right-handed bat who plays Right Field and Center Field.  Potentially a nice fit for a Dodgers team that seems to have one everyday outfielder in Mookie Betts and a hole in the lineup that a right-handed power bat would fill nicely.

After top prize Judge, a quartet of shortstops were available.  The Dodgers’ own Trea Turner was the first of them to sign elsewhere.  Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson came off the board quickly once Trea Turner signed. You would think a SS would fill a hole after losing one of the top shortstops in baseball, two years in a row! That’s not how things worked out for us.

On the pitching side of the free agent market, very old and very good Justin Verlander signed a two-year deal to pitch into his age 40 and age 41 seasons to join the top of the Mets rotation with fellow old and good Max Scherzer for the same $43+ Million per year.  The other prize at the top of the pitching market, Jacob Degrom, who hasn’t pitched a full season since 2019 got a 5 year deal from the pitching starved Texas Rangers earning $37 million per year to pitch through his age 39 season with a club option for Age 40.

To round out the top 10 available free agents, New York was very busy as the Yankees snatched up Carlos Rodon and the Mets resigned Brandon Nimmo.  The Blue Jays signed Chris Bassitt.  All of the top 10 free agents were signed before Christmas. A Christmas miracle indeed… 

It was apparent the Dodgers were staying out of the deep end of the waters in such a strange offseason.  Instead, they turned to bringing back their own legend, Clayton Kershaw on a very reasonable $20M, 1 year deal.  Then, they signed Noah Syndergaard on a very reasonable $13M, “Fix Me” 1 year deal, following the likes of Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson while hoping for a big payday after a return to dominance.  For good measure, they filled the hole for a right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup with another 1 year deal, this time for JD Martinez for $10M. Another “Fix Me” deal in where JD is trusting his future by reuniting with Robert Van Scoyoc, the Dodgers hitting coach that is credited with turning JD Martinez into one of the most productive hitters in baseball early in his career. In addition to these big name signings, the Dodgers also took a flier on Jayson Heyward, signing him on a minor league deal. Another “Project” to work on, but on a worst case scenario, he’s still a very good outfield defender with a plus arm.

Beyond Clayton’s return, this was not the result that most Dodgers fans were expecting.  But, at the same time, it could turn out to be a very impressive haul.  In fact, if these names were acquired in a single offseason a few years ago, I think everyone would be ecstatic.  These names are just as big as any of the top 10.  Hell, even bigger when Nimmo and Bassitt are checking in at the end of the top 10 list.  And just to put a cherry on top, they got all three of them on risk-free, one-year deals totaling the same AAV and half the length of Justin Verlander’s contract. Our oldest signings, Kershaw and Martinez are both a full 5 years younger than Verlander.  Thor is a full decade younger than Verlander and believe it or not, Jayson Heyward is just 33 years old at the time of the signing even thought it seems like he’s been around forever.

Now, consider this.  The Dodgers current projected payroll is just a tick below $32M under the salary cap.  That number perfectly coincides with Trevor Bauer’s salary. 

Coincidence or an Optimal Approach to Maximizing Production while Minimizing Risk?

The biggest cheater in baseball, Rob Manfred, has successfully screwed the Dodgers once again with the Trevor Bauer saga.  The Trevor Bauer can has been kicked far enough down the road that all of the most useful free agents have signed.  It sure seems like he’s on a mission to derail the Dodgers’ run of success, but AF fighting back the best he can while coming dangerously close to the CBT threshold.

With the Dodgers almost exactly Trevor’s contract under the cap, it seems to me that AF expects Bauer to be in a Dodgers uniform to start the season.  All the details about Bauer’s case is under wraps and no one has reported any kind of information regarding his appeal, other than it was expected to be settled sometime this month.  Yet, here we are, less than a week until Christmas and the New Year just around the corner and nothing is settled and no new information or speculation has been revealed by anyone.  It’s seems that these hearings are more secure than the Ghislaine Maxwell trial!  As a result of the payroll uncertainty surrounding Bauer, and the record length contracts that were being handed out like happy pills at a Grateful Dead concert, AF pivoted to the “Sign and fix” strategy gathering formerly great players this offseason. AF is all about risk management and optimization.  His approach this offseason sure looks like he’s operating under a plan with the following goals.

1. As always, be deep with Starting Pitching.
2. Don’t just hand over a starting job to a rookie without having adequate insurance in place.
3. Reset the cap when the opportunity arises.

This offseason will be forever known as the offseason of stupid contracts.  Has there ever been so many players signed through age 40?  For the last couple of days, a lot of the talk on this site was about the decline of two very good, if not prolific hitters in JT and JD.  Both are risky moves and most people think one or the other are washed up.  Both are considered DH’s only at this point in their careers, even if JT can fill in at 3B and JD can play a little LF. Both have seen their production decline for several straight years.  Every GM knows this and sees this, but somehow it seems like every big name signed contracts well past the current age of these two questionable veterans.  Andrew didn’t budge and instead acquired talent at a reduced cost.  Of course, each of them have their warts, but each is also young enough to have some promise left in their talents.

These signings provide three things. 

1. Reduce risk by providing insurance in case the rookies aren’t ready.
2. Provide flexibility to cover for injuries or poor performance.
3. Acquire a lot of upside.

Kershaw, Martinez, Syndergaard and Heyward have all been stars. You can’t teach talent, but you can recapture it. They did so with worse tools last year while turning Heaney and Anderson into highly valued free agent targets that came off the board expeditiously. While JD Martinez doesn’t provide positional flexibility, he does provide an excellent chance of upside to replace Trea Turner’s or JT’s bat.  Maybe better, maybe somewhere in between.  It’s clear that the Dodgers front office thinks he has more to add than JT does.  Max Muncy looks to get the most time in the field as a result of this signing.  In a perfect world, Max would be a semi full-time DH. I love great fielding teams and with Max having a full time role at 2nd or 3rd, we aren’t going to see plus defense at those positions. Max says he’s most comfortable at second base and I believe that’s the plan for him.  So, if you’re one of those that’s scared of Lux playing SS, you’re gonna love Muncy at second. 

Miguel Vargas is a third baseman and the readiest of all of the rookies, even if he didn’t look like it last year.  He’s got the longest runway of all the rookies and that runway will be at 3^rd base, not left field unless Busch hits himself onto the team. A lot has been said about the defensive challenges of Vargas and Busch. But, both of these top rookies have made vast improvements on the field. That’s not to say there won’t be some growing pains. With a little luck and a lot of talent, their bats might just make up for any holes in their gloves.

Realistically speaking, Busch probably needs more time in the minors and Outman will be there with him unless he plays himself into the outfield in Spring Training.  There’s going to be a lot of competition in the Dodger’s outfield come Spring Training.  Jayson Heyward is attempting a comeback at age 33 and he’s best suited for LF.  But, he’ll also be a very good defensive option if RVS can fix his bat.  Chris Taylor and Trayce Thompson can both play all three outfield positions and Johnny DeLuca is a true Centerfielder as is James Outman. Last but not least, Andy Pages could pull a Belli and force the Dodgers hand by bashing his way into the lineup similar to what Belli did when he arrived ahead of schedule. Pages is better suited for Right Field, but has played plenty of Center Field in the minors. With Heyward, Taylor or Thompson flanking him on the left side, his range would be less of a factor.

On the infield, Muncy can play 2^nd and 3^rd allowing either Vargas or Busch to break in.  Management can settle that score during Spring Training. If both Vargas and Busch have a hot spring, they can move one of them to left field, which could work with a Thompson / Outman platoon in Center.

Now that the roster is set, there will be other minor league signings that typically never work out and some other prospects on the 40-man that aren’t too far away.   I can’t see another big signing or a trade considering where the payroll sits and the fact that the 40 man roster looks pretty complete just as soon as they officially add JD and cut Yonny (Cash Considerations) Hernandez.  Once that move is made, there’s not a single player on the 40-man that wouldn’t get picked up immediately if the Dodgers needed to clear another roster spot.  The team, as a whole, is very deep and talented when Justin Bruihl is your weak link. By the time the Bauer saga is settled, they won’t be any $32M players for the Dodgers to throw money at if the decision goes the wrong way. If Bauer is back in a Dodgers uniform, the rotation will likely be the best in baseball and could open up a trade for another bat at the deadline.

My “Way too early” Opening Day Lineup…

Betts RF R

Lux SS L

Freddie 1B L

JDM DH R

Muncy 2B L

Smith C R

Vargas 3B R

Outman CF L

Taylor LF R

RIP Justin Turner

Justin Turner was not only a productive member of this team for the last 9 seasons, he was a beloved member of the Dodgers family for good reason. A utility player turned star third-baseman, Justin became a fan favorite with clutch hitting and excellent defense at the position. He was an underdog, that became the unofficial captain of this “Almost Dynasty”. His postseason heroics are well documented by reaching beast-mode setting most of the Dodgers post season records as a hitter.

He finishes his time with the Dodgers as the “All-time Dodgers postseason leader in games, hits, doubles, Home Runs, walks, and RBI.”

Justin and his wife, Kourtney’s philanthropy off the field is as well documented as Justin’s heroics on the field. They are very active fundraisers for local charities and have given back to the community that supported him throughout his baseball career starting at Mayfair High School in Lakewood to Cal State Fullerton, then coming home to the Dodgers for most of his career.

Thank you Justin, for the time you spent in “My Blue Heaven on Earth” and for all you do on and off the field. You will be missed.