Well, he did not actually do that, and it is not my intent to disparage Justin Turner. He will always be a Dodger in my mind, but I think he should have just retired rather than go to Boston. Essentially by not signing JT and signing JDM instead, he made that trade. But like lots of athletes, Justin Turner did not know when to quit as he thinks he can still play.
JT is 38 and has lost a stop (or two). His once superb glove is not all that anymore. He is not the baserunner he once was, and over the past three seasons, he has demonstrated an inability to catch up to upper-90s fastballs. The Dodgers probably would have had him back at something around $8 million, but he got a lot more than that, and you can’t blame him. That is real money!
In the postseason, Justin Turner has been hitting .198 since the start of the 2020 postseason. He has not been the same clutch player in the post-season since 2019. He was certainly not the only problem for the Dodgers, but he was definitely a concern. Cody Bellinger was not good against lefties, and neither was Joey Gallo. By contrast, Max Muncy (who has reverse splits) has OPS’ed .849 against LHP for his career. Andrew Friedman knew that JT was one of the team leaders and yet, was part of the problem in the playoffs. This is the result of that. Also, 2017 was arguably JT’s best season. Let’s look at his OPS since then:
- 2017 – .945
- 2018 – .924
- 2019 – .881
- 2020 – .860
- 2021 – .832
- 2020 – .788
There is no doubt that Turner was (is) is severe decline. Freefall, some may say!
JD Martinez had an off-year in 2022, but he is three years younger than Justin Turner and was not acquired to play the field. He was hired to hit. Reunited with Robert Von Socyoc and back with a winning team, I think JDM might be primed for another great season. JDM is not a good fielder. He never has been, but he takes very good care of himself. It is not like Andrew Friedman to acquire players who can’t pay the field (usually more than one position), so that may tell you what he thinks about getting his offensive game back.
Reverse Splits
In his career, Justin Turner has hit .276 against LHP with a .358 OB%, while JD Martinez has hit .306 with a .377 OB%, but in 2022, Justin Turner hit .275 with a .345 OB% against LHP, but only OPS’ed .734, while JDM hit .319 against lefties and had a .402 OB% against them, while OP’sing .998 against LHP. The Dodgers will be more adept at hitting LHP this season with JDM and Miguel Vargas in the lineup.
Back in October of 2020, Dustin Nosler of Dodger Digest was worried about JT’s inability to hit fastballs over 94 MPH. He was worried it wold get worse. It has! Justin is a cagy hitter and he was able to bounce back from a disastrous first half of 2022, but I think it is going to get worse. The Red Sox are a mess and they are about to get messier! Sorry to see you go JT. I hope you do well… except when the Dodgers play you! Chaim Bloom is presiding over a trainwreck in Boston.
Shortstop
I know what Friedman has said about Lux at SS. Here is exactly what I believe: Andrew is trying to make everyone believe he is ready to roll with Lux at SS so that he will not be at a trade disadvantage. A player the Dodgers are “in on” right now is allegedly Seth Lugo, who is a pitcher not unlike Tyler Anderson. He is a reclamation project to some extent and while people think Friedman is “in” on Lugo, I think he is just making sure the Padres pay as much as possible for him. He doesn’t need Lugo… unless he is going to trade a starter for a SS. That’s what you have to watch for.
I do not think there is a talent evaluator who believes Lux can play SS at a high level. There are a number of people who believe Lux has a fragile psyche and just needs to stay at 2B. When Friedman and Roberts say that Lux will be the SS, I believe they are deliberately putting out a smokescreen. Either way, the truth will come out. Here are the possibilities:
- The Dodgers put Lux at SS and he proves me wrong;
- The Dodgers put Lux at SS and he proves me right; or
- Lux does not play SS and Friedman acquires someone else to do it.
I think #3 is what happens. I also think Friedman is still trying to pry away Amed Rosario from the Indians… I mean Guardians! Would AF have the balls to trade away Julio Urias in a 3-way deal for Rosario? Julio will be a Free Agent after 2024 and will likely command a $300 Million dollar deal. Borasss is his agent and maybe AF doesn’t see value in a 10 year $300 Million dollar deal. I guarantee you he is up to something and if Lux plays SS, then pigs fly and I will admit I am wrong (unless he is a bad as I think).
Maybe the Dodgers new Centerfielder is their old Secondbaseman… Gavin Lux! Give him all of Spring Training and his speed would play well in CF.
Try this on for size:
- Lux CF
- Betts RF
- Freeman 1B
- JDM DH
- Muncy 2B
- Smith C
- Vargas 3B
- Rosario SS
- Busch LF
With Rosario at SS, Muncy would be somewhat mitigated at 2B and Mike Busch could learn on-the-job in LF. He might just hit 30 HR (albeit with a .230 BA). I am just trying to get you guys to think outside the box… actually there is no box!
Another Reason They Signed JDM
The Athletic has a good read that also might give some insight into Andrew Friedman’s thought process in signing JDM:
“Years after a mid-career shift that would make him a poster child for modern hitting development, J.D. Martinez cashed in. His previous time hitting the free-agent market paid him handsomely, as the Boston Red Sox were hopeful he could be the piece that pushed their group of gifted homegrown position players over the top.
Upon his arrival at Fenway Park, he was entrusted with a more specific task.
“They pretty much assigned me Mookie Betts,” Martinez told The Athletic’s Chad Jennings this past August. “They called me into the office and said, ‘This is your project.’ I said, ‘Damn, alright.’”
Betts was the most promising of them all, and Martinez’s soothsaying brought out the best in the All-Star outfielder. Betts’ OPS jumped nearly 200 points, resulting in the AL MVP award. The Red Sox won the World Series, with Martinez’s forceful right-handed bat helping lead the way.
His voice and guidance resonated among a core of All-Stars, a skill set that drew notice from outside the organization as well.”
It’s a good read…
Maybe JDM can carry the Dodgers to a place they want to go!
Discussion (25)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Matt Carpenter signs with the Padres.
Someone asked me when I stated Swanson would end up signing a bargain deal compared to Turner, Bogaerts and Correa deals.
Although, at the time it was unknown what the Correa and Swanson deals would look like, here is what each respective contract looks like:
Carlos Correa: 13-year $350M contract ($26.92M AAV) through age of 41
Trea Turner: 11-year $300M contract ($27.27M AAV) through age of 40
Xander Bogaerts: 11-year $280M contract ($25.45M AAV) through age of 41
Dansby Swanson : pending 7-year $177M contract ($25.28M AAV) though age of 35
While the AAV is somewhat comparable between the four players, Dansby’s contract is clearly less of a liability when compared to the other three, as it can be reasonably expected for Swanson to remain productive through the age of 35.
While not a bargain when comparing AAV, Swanson’s deal is much more palatable when considering the superior defense he brings to the table.
I hope the Dodgers are right about Lux’s ability to play SS, because Swanson ended up signing a deal that fits Friedman’s mortis operandi. Shorter term deal with a higher AAV.
I’m in Vegas right now, and as of last night, the Dodgers over/under on wins in 2023 is 101.5.
I did not expect it to be that high!
Chris Taylor got hitched in Hawaii. Some of his former and current teammates were in attendance. Congrats and best wishes for a long life together. And to all of you who are happily married, I wish you nothing but happiness and a full life.
Even considering our off season up till now we’re still 2nd or 3rd in odds to win WS 2023 just released. So the betting experts still think this is a pretty good team. We return 3 starters with sub 3?era’s plus a healthy Dustin May and possible big rebound season from Thor if Pryor can work his magic. In addition some very good young starting talent and another strong bullpen. So I still like our chances even if the offense doesn’t produce like last year.
Rosenthal from The Athletic:
How is it possible Turner signed a contract for more than twice as much as Martinez, considering both offer minimal defensive value at this stage of their respective careers?
Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, pointed to the slugger’s relationship with his former Red Sox teammate, Mookie Betts, and Dodgers hitting instructor Robert Van Scoyoc, who helped Martinez revamp his swing after the 2013 season.
Tom Browning passed away at age 62. Threw a perfect game against the Dodgers in 1988. RIP
Will Vargas play third or will they make him a second baseman with Muncy playing third?
Rafael Devers and Red Sox lightyears apart on contract extension talks. If the Vargas experiment at third doesn’t work out Devers at the trade deadline would be awesome.
The best manager in baseball: (a) is good for a win or two in the playoffs; and (b) would have sniffed out that the Astros were cheating.
A minor league manager could match Robert’s wins given the Dodger roster.
Seth Lugo signs with San Diego.
If the Vargas at 3rd base doesn’t pan out there might be an alternative road to take at tread line. According to certain mlb insiders the Red Sox and the Devers camp are light years apart on working out an extension. Devers will be a free agent after the 2023 season. Devers and Ohtani at the deadline would be surreal.
When the players perform the credit goes to them and when they don’t the blame goes to Roberts.
Dodger target Lugo signs with the Pads, two years 15 mil with an opt out after year one. He will be stretched out to join the Pads rotation. Doc has a new three-year deal, he is going nowhere. nor should he.
After losing Corey, none of this hurts so much. Breaking up the “Almost Dynasty” one player at a time. Can we please say goodbye to Doc next?
Joc, Kike’, Justin, Cory, Cody, AJ Ellis, Pollock, Kenley…
Muncy will soon become a member of this club.
Someday I expect JT will return in the role of coach or, at least, a community relations guy.
I’m guessing he really wanted more than a one-year commitment and AF wouldn’t give it to him. Same with Tyler Anderson.
Perhaps Thor and JDM were willing to take one-year deals expressly because they believe that Dodger coaches will help get their careers back on track. Maybe it works out.
At any rate, we’ll be able to compare JDM and JT during the coming season and judge whether AF made the right choice.
Seems like a lot of folks here are expecting AF to swing some sort of big deal to get Adames or some other proven player–a deal that really defines the offseason for the Dodgers.
I have my doubts. AF seems content to play small ball and bring the payroll down….and maybe hold off on an impact until mid-season.
All good things eventually come to an end. That includes Justin Turner’s incredible stint with the Dodgers. One of the more fun players to watch. The red beard and the red hair flowing out from under his cap or helmet — looking more like a Viking raider than a baseball player. I will miss him, his charisma, his flair for the dramatic and how much he did for people in the Los Angeles area. When the Dodgers honored a vet or military person at the stadium, there was Turner at the end of the dugout to shake hands and hand out a signed ball.
Whether it was helping with feeding the homeless, children in hospitals or veterans programs, there was JT out front.
I have no idea who the Dodgers will get to do the same, filling in for the receipient of the Roberto Clemente award for community service. The fact he lived in the LA area helped him make a connection with the fans that few players can achieve.
Stats and data tell a very limited story about a player’s true value. This is a huge loss for the Dodgers, the community and fans.
I will miss JT. He was like a Dodger Captain. An experienced professional who conducted himself with class. He and his wife were great for the Dodgers and community. He certainly had his moments in the sun for the Dodgers. He will always be a Dodger to me and I hope we see him after he retires again in Dodger Blue in a coaching role. I think he is a manager in the making. It’s tough watching his skill to hit a fastball or throw the ball across the diamond decline. But it was time to move on and AF made a hard but wise choice. Best of luck JT and I hope to see you again in the organization.
Interesting call Mark on JDM perhaps helping the Mookster find himself. Also trading Urias before he becomes a free agent and not dealing with Boros. I hadn’t thought of either.
Urias for Rosario? Bahahahahahahahahahaha.
Mark, Kiss! Keep it simple stupid! Or, Occam’s razor. Don’t try to overcomplicate things. Let me break it down for you.
1) Rosario is not an upgrade over Lux, so you aren’t going to trade a borderline Cy Young candidate and best pitcher for him especially when Rosario will be a free agent after this season and doesn’t provide you with anything that Lux can’t provide.
2) Lux will be 25 this season, two years younger than Rosario. He’s ready to take over at Shortstop and the only reason he wasn’t already the Shortstop is because they got the Nats to stupidly throw Trea into a trade to land K-Bear and Gray.
3) The Dodgers top three position player prospects are a 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman and a Center Fielder. Max can play 3B and 2B and will no longer DH with JDM on the team and Smith also getting ABs at DH. They have a shortstop, they don’t need to trade for one and they showed little interest for one on the free agent market. Like Lux, Vargas might have to learn a temporary new position, but that doesn’t mean he’ll stay at the position forever with bloggers inventing stories why he can’t return to his original position.
4) I thought you were done talking about this.
Speaking of precipitous declines, let’s compare JT and JDM.
JT’s wRC+, HR values since 2016
2016 – 123 27
2017 – 151 21
2018 – 154 14
2019 – 131 27
2020 – 138 4
2021 – 136 27
2022 – 123 13
JDM –
2016 – 143/22
2017 – 167/45
2018 – 170/43
2019 – 139/36
2020 – 76/7
2021 – 127/28
2022 – 119/16
We’ll toss out 2020 for both players. Looking at their numbers side by side, it seems as if anyone is in a freefall, it’s JDM. JT was fairly close to his historical values last year. His HR numbers were down by a lot, and his defensive numbers dropped off a cliff – and there was his futility against playoff pitching.
JDM’s numbers dropped off by an even wider margin last year and in the two years prior, especially if you compare him to his peak years in 2017 and 2018. If you’re looking at JT’s freefall, I wouldn’t bank my hopes on JDM being in any less of one. He’s old, too, and his stats are definitely trending in the wrong direction.
You could make the argument that, if the Dodgers really wanted to give Vargas 3rd base, why not keep JT and use him as the DH? He’s at least an insurance policy in case Vargas falls on his face. JDM cannot touch the field at any position. He’s a terrible fielder.
Was it years? Maybe the Dodgers didn’t want to give him a two year deal. Maybe, as the Athletic article suggests, the Dodgers liked JDM’s makeup. Maybe that will translate to a little more clutchiness in the playoffs and grittiness in the clubhouse? JDM’s offensive ceiling was definitely higher in his peak years – and he’s three years younger. He’s potentially a better middle of the order batter.
I see the “trade” as a bit of a wash, actually. Maybe the offensive potential is marginally better with JDM, and I generally like the move, I think it was more of just a way to fill the loss of a couple of right handed bats.
Now, if Vargas can actually hit, then I think it might be a net gain – even with the loss of TT’s bat.
No way I trade Urias….NO WAY.
What would it take to get Rosario or Adames? And I’d love to know who AF would be willing to give up? He hasn’t come up on the short end of many trades. And I’m not including Alvarez since he never even played for a Dodger affiliate.
I love JT but I think JDM has a much better offensive year in 23 and it’s time to see what Vargas can do at third. We can also occasionally put JDM in left if Smith needs a day off at dh. Not many giving Outman much love but he could be the big surprise of 23.
anyone signing JT is hoping that he can still play like he did the second half of 2022 where he was one of best hitters for 3 months or so. So he must have been able to hit the fastball then. But how much uninjured time has he have left?