Starting Pitching is Overvalued

MJ: “Bum

I remember you mentioning Scherzer.

And I remember you talking about the opt out, and back loading his contract.

Dodger patch had the same type of idea that you had, about signing Cueto too.

And actually, both you and Dodger patch, seem to have had a smarter way, to fill our rotation with another quality pitcher, without having to make a long contract agreement, so our young pitchers, wouldn’t be blocked.

And neither one of you, have the info the front office has, or the experience they have either.”

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Well before you give the job to Bum or Dodgerpatch, consider this:

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Scherzer is signed through his age 36 season with his current $210M/7yr contract, it runs for another 4 years after this year. While Scherzer has looked good the first two years of the contract, WILL IT CONTINUE???

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Cueto is signed through his age 35 season and owed another $84M after this season and an additional $5M to buyout his age 36 season. His current ERA is 5.25!!

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Backloading Scherzer’s contract makes it HARDER to move him if he starts sucking. Opt-outs benefit the player ONLY, what is the current betting line on Cueto opting out?

From Houston Mitchell of The LA Times

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The e-mails have been coming in really fast, and very furious. “This team will never win.” “Management obviously doesn’t have winning as a priority.” “The season is basically over at this point.”

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Those are actual quotes from actual e-mails I received Friday and Saturday after the Dodgers got blown out by Arizona twice.

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Now, most of you are still on board with the Dodgers, and realize that you can’t really judge anything by an 18-game stretch. So, this next part is not for you. You can go ahead and skip to the next section of this newsletter. I will meet you there after I talk to the 20% or so of Dodgers Dugout subscribers who seem to think that 2017 is a disaster,

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Now, most of you are still on board with the Dodgers, and realize that you can’t really judge anything by an 18-game stretch. So, this next part is not for you. You can go ahead and skip to the next section of this newsletter. I will meet you there after I talk to the 20% or so of Dodgers Dugout subscribers who seem to think that 2017 is a disaster,

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OK, you 20%: Calm down. Relax. You can’t judge a team by 18 games. I can pull an 18-game stretch from almost any team in history and make them look bad. But here’s the real problem: If you are giving up already, then you might want to find a new hobby, because following baseball is not for you. You are the type of person who complains about the taxes after winning the lottery. And I’d hate to be one of your children. “Son, I was really proud of you the last three or four years. Really proud. Told everyone what a big fan of yours I am. But, that last report card had a ‘C’ on it, so your mom and I are going to have to let you go. You are obviously a total loser, and we want you to find someplace else to live. Don’t worry though, we’ll be back as soon as you get an ‘A’ and say we were behind you all the time.”

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Don’t get me wrong, because there are flaws on this team (Scott Van Slyke? Chris Hatcher?) and it is entirely possible that this team will be a disappointment. It is also entirely possible that they will right the ship and be in first place at the end of the season. It is far too early to tell. If you want to throw in the towel now, then the exit is over there. And there are no re-admit privileges.

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Amen Brother!

There are two ways of looking at value; in terms of pricing, and in terms of ability/success. It is clear to me that Friedman was referring to value in terms of pricing. It is somewhat incredulous that some would think that Friedman was actually referring to starting pitching and its influence on winning as to being overvalued. IMO, Friedman was saying that the price for that starting pitching is over-valued. Is he wrong? There are 11 players currently with an annual salary at $25M or more, and 8 are pitchers; Greinke, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Lester, Hernandez, and Strasburg. Of those pitchers, only four have WS appearances; Price (1 with Tampa Bay in 2008 as a rookie reliever), Scherzer (1 with Detroit in 2012), Verlander (2 with Detroit in 2006 and 2012), and the only pitcher in that group with a WS ring, Jon Lester (3…2 with Boston in 2007 & 2013, and 1 with the Cubs in 2016). There are six more pitchers making $20M or moreannually; Hamels, Sabathia, Cain, Tanaka, Zimmerman, and Cueto. Four of these pitchers have WS appearances, Hamels (2 with Phillies in 2008-2009), Sabathia (1 with Yankees in 2009), Cain (2 with SF in 2010 and 2012), and Cueto (1 with Royals in 2015).

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Of the eight with WS appearances, Lester is the only pitcher to win with two teams, the one he was drafted by (Red Sox) and the one he signed as a FA (Cubs). Price, Verlander, Hamels, and Cain also made the WS with the team that drafted them. One was a FA (Sabathia), and two were with teams they were traded to (Scherzer and Cueto). Cueto was the only deadline trade pitcher to make it to the WS in this group. Of that group, 4 appeared in multiple WS (Verlander/Lester/Hamels/Cain), and all four appeared in multiple WS with the team that drafted and originally signed them. Only Lester went on to win with another team.

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It would appear to me that the best results come from the combination of pitchers and the teams that drafted them, rather than via deadline trade or FA. IMO, Friedman is doing it correctly by stockpiling the farm with potentially outstanding starting pitching, and waiting for it to develop, rather than signing FA pitchers or trading those prospects. I know a lot of FAZ critics wanted the Dodgers to go after Sonny Gray in 2015. That would not have worked out too well back then. So which #2 is available? It is easy to complain, but determining a solution is not as easy. Chris Archer and Jose Quintana seem to be the two closest to the #2 level that may be available. And no, you are not going to get either one with a package of Grandal/SVS/Kike’/Hatcher/AGon/ Thompson/Toles. Not only is it not comparable value in terms of baseball talent or financial cost; there are not enough 40 man slots open to fill 5 or 6 or 7 players. So the idea of quantity for quality trade is not going to come unless you include players not on the 40 man; in other words high level prospects. Think Cole Hamels and Chris Sale. Trades for Archer and Quintana are going to start with some combination of Urias/Bellinger/Verdugo/Buehler/White/Alveraz. How many of those are you willing to move for a chance. You might be willing to trade high level prospects for either because of their current contracts, but how high and how many?

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FAZ traded Cotton/Montas/Holmes for a chance with Hill. They almost got to the finish line. I know close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but they did not leverage their future for that chance. I am okay with the decision. Regardless as to how well any of the three do with the A’s, none of the three would have given the Dodgers a chance last year or this year, and probably not next year or the year after that. That is the cost for a pitcher that was leading the league in ERA, regardless as to how fragile.

Wow – what a straw man argument. Are you trying to say that during the life of his contract, Brandon McCarthy has provided more value per dollar than the others on your list?

Kershaw

2016 – 149 IP, 97 H, 11 BB, 172 K, 12 – 4, 1.69, .72, $34.6MM

2015 – 233 IP, 163 H, 42 BB, 301 K, 16 – 7 , 2.13, .88, $32.6MM

Lester

2016 – 203 IP, 154 H, 52 BB, 197 K, 19 – 5 , 2.44, 1.02, $25MM

2015 – 205 IP, 183 H, 47 BB, 207 K, 11 – 12, 3.34, 1.12, $25MM

Greinke

2016 – 159 IP, 161 H, 41 BB, 134 K, 13 – 7, 4.37, 1.27, $34MM

2015 – 222 IP, 148 H, 40 BB, 200 K, 19 – 3, 1.66, .84, $25MM

Strasburg

2016 – 148 IP, 119 H, 44 BB, 183 K, 15 – 4, 3.60, 1.10, $10.4MM

2015 – 127 IP, 115 H, 26 BB, 155 K, 11 – 7, 3.46, 1.11, $7.4MM

Hamels

2016 – 201 IP, 185 H, 77 BB, 200 K, 15 – 5, 3.32, 1.31, $23.5MM

2015 – 212 IP, 190 H, 65 BB, 212 K, 13 – 8, 3.65, 1.23, $23.5MM

McCarthy

2016 – 40 IP, 29 H, 26 BB, 44 K, 2 -3, 4.95, 1.38, $12.5MM

2015 – 23 IP, 24 H, 4 BB, 29 K, 3 – 0, 5.87, 1.22, $12.5MM

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And if it’s so dumb not to sign pitchers for more than $48MM, what about Kershaw? Didn’t Lester help get the Cubs to and through the Series? Do they get there without him? Do the Rangers make the post-season without Hamels? The Dodgers got 6 innings from their starters 66 times in 2016 and 102 in 2015 – do you think that Zach Greinke’s absence has anything to do with that?

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Max Scherzer is signed for about $200MM – is that a bad deal? Is it possible to sign a pitcher for big money and have it work out for the team?

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On the other hand, have the Dodgers really gotten value for the bulk of their “old and infirm” pitchers? I think not.

White was so-so yesterday. Lots of balls. Sborz got lit up at AA.

A bitcher’s reply: Stop being fixated on 100 pitches or 150 innings and start developing starting pitchers to pitch 9 innings. I would start with college kids only, and only those who are front line, Friday pitchers. Forget high school kids. It takes too long for them mature. No pitcher younger than 21 will be drafted. Friday college pitchers, I think, are supposed to complete games. Once drafted, they continue to pitch once a week and are only taken out when they suck. At the second year, they go every 5 days, with 7 innings the goal. The third year, the same with 9 innings the goal. This would be an organizational thing starting with rookie ball. Don’t even think about pitch counts. Pitch counts don’t matter; getting hitters out into the 8th inning matters. If arms blow, so be it. After one TJ, you are on probation, and there is no 2d TJ for the organization. Let someone else deal with it. The pitch count is the worst thing that has happened to starting pitchers since lowering the mound. All teams, including ours , have starters whose goal it is to pitch to 100, not to win and complete games. It stinks.

Mark

I think what upset me about Hill, is that I showed faith in the front office with his signing, because I thought he had more upside, then the other pitchers they signed.

And when he couldn’t pitch that far in his last start, the Dodgers went straight to saying, Hill can be used in the bullpen very quickly, after that game.

So I thought there has to be more with Hill, that we don’t know.

And he never pitched well in spring training before his first start, either.

And that didn’t worry me, but to say he can be used in the pen, right after his first game, made me lose faith, with this signing, and made me wonder, if there was more to this.

Why did they jump to that, so quickly?

What kind of gas mileage are you getting? I think I have that same twin turbo Ecoboost engine in the Ford Flex I just bought used and I’m average 13.5….something seriously wrong.

I’m fond of asking the naysayers what their VAS, or Viable Alternative Strategy is. “So…you’d rather have Greinke right now?” “Do you still think signing Samardzija was a good idea?” “Ok….if not Hill or Maeda then who?”

That usually ends the conversation.

Only problem is Taylor is playing 2B with Forsythe out along with Utley. SVS can still split LF with Toles and Kike has more experience in CF. I agree there are better options than calling up Thompson until he starts hitting. I have heard nothing about when Gutierrez is returning from the DL. Sliding Puig over puts SVS in RF and weakens the defense in 2 spots. Puig was ok there and can cover a lot of ground but the routes are different. With more time there he would be a good center fielder but he is great as a RF.

Ok, I guess the math was too much for me this morning causing duplicate posts!

Looking at the 40 man roster a move would have to be made to bring up any of the 3 starters mentioned above. Joe Gunkel is the obvious candidate unless Ethier or Kazmir is moved to the 60 day DL. My gut is Wood gets another start and he is really just getting stretched out and Maeda gets another start as well then a decision is made. They are trying all sorts of things with Hill and if successful that would help a ton.

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What to do if Joc goes to the DL? Thompson can handle CF but has yet to have a hit this year. If Toles can handle CF maybe he slides over and Puig has done it in the past. Kike can play there for now or bring Eibner back but Bellinger would look good there, arbitration clock or not. AC posted a great link yesterday that bringing a first year player up before June 1st could make them ‘Super Two’s’ with 3 years of arbitration control instead of 4. I don’t think it makes sense to call up a guy early and start the clock if they won’t be everyday players and this is just a short term situation until Joc is healthy and he may just need a few days.

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Huge test for Ryu today and the Giants are reeling. He can keep them off balance with breaking stuff and spot the fastball low in the zone and gut out a win if the bats give him 4 or 5 runs to work with. Kershaw going tomorrow means the bullpen can be used early if needed and Roberts will go all out for the win and Jansen could come in for more than 3 outs.

Yeah, I would like to start hearing about the “better way” from the complainers.

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We all know 7 inning studs would be welcome and .300 BA, 30 hr, 100 RBI two-way players would also be nice. But where were those guys for FAZ to pick up at less than the cost of Denali XL? Can’t believe Mark doesn’t have butt warmers though.

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Even last season’s 20/20 hindsight FAZ blooper, J.A. Happ, is now at sickbay, with FOREARM inflamation, replaced by long-time favorite Matt Latos. Happ’s rotation mate 24 yr old Aaron Sanchez is also on the shelf with blisters. Seems like pitcher injuries can happen to ANYONE!

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Maybe there is something to the FAZ pitcher DEPTH plan. Make that the whole organization DEPTH plan.

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I still believe that Kasmir will bounce back. I haven’t read anything that says his hip tightness is arthritic or irreversible.

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McCarthy’s stuff is impressive. I love that he is earning his paycheck as too many have repeatedly commented that signing him was an example of FAZ wasting money that could have been better used elsewhere.

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I have liked Stewart for quite awhile now and look forward to see what he will do in May.

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Oaks could be a good #5 and be an innings eater. It would be great if he were more than that.

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Jurrjens briefly showed that he has the stuff to be a #2 but that was a few years ago. If he is pitching well now, why not give him the ball until he regresses if he does.

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Between Dixon, SVS, Segeden, and Thompson, it seems like Dixon needs to get a chance. If Joc goes on the 10 day DL, why not showcase Puig in CF. It might add to his trade value. While Joc is out, maybe Toles, Kike’, and Puig could be the outfield.

I am not sure about Hill. I saw an interview and he said rest is the only cure. That is fine, but he is a curve ball pitcher. That will put a lot of stress on the finger and more blisters.

One DL I forgot is Forsyhe. I would cut Utley. I know that is not popular, but he is batting under 100. He is a great guy and great player, but h has lost it. If no one picks him up, I would assign him as a roving infield instructor.

I agree with almost everything you say Mark. Ryu is a pitcher and not a thrower. He can survive with a slower fastball. Wood and Stripling need to be in the pen. Right now we need two starters. Urias will be one. Jurrjens or Oaks will be the other. My bet is it will be Jurrjens. They always go with the experience over youth.

The one that still makes me mad is Hill. We signed a 37 year old to a 3 year contract with blister problems. Dumb.

They have decisions to make when some come off the DL. Dayton for Hatcher. Segedin for SVS. Segedin can play first and left field. Taylor can play center. You have to keep those two as bench players. Now my two problem children. Joc and Puig. Those two are a disappointment to me. I think you have to keep running them out there, If they continue on the path they are on we will see Bellinger and Verdugo. Toles needs to play every day.