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Starting Pitching is Overvalued

Which doesn t mean it is not valuable. It s just not worth the price. I can relate. I drive a 2013 Ford F-150 XLT Supercab. I could have bought the Platinum Series but it was $22,000 more and I thought that was overvalued, so I just drive the standard model. Well it does have the twin-turbo 375 HP engine, so there is that. But, it doesn t have butt warmers and leather

By Mark Timmons3 min readJump to 107 comments

Which doesn’t mean it is not valuable.  It’s just not worth the price. I can relate.  I drive a 2013 Ford F-150 XLT Supercab.  I could have bought the Platinum Series but it was $22,000 more and I thought that was overvalued, so I just drive the standard model.  Well it does have the twin-turbo 375 HP engine, so there is that.  But, it doesn’t have butt warmers and leather seats. I think about a new Denali XL, but at $80K, I think it is overvalued.  My truck has 78,000 miles and is paid for.  I love having no payments.  However, I digress – I am prone to that.

Andrew Friedman has steadfastly refused to sign long-term deals with starting pitchers for more than $48 million dollars (because it’s really dumb, that’s why), so that he can grow the pitching from within.  A lot of people have bitched about it, but NO ONE HAS PRESENTED A BETTER WAY.  All they do is bitch.  It’s time to stop.  I am tired of the bitching.  Present me a better way and I am all in, but insofar as I can tell, this is the best way to build the farm while building for a World Series… THIS YEAR!

And quit talking about Cotton, Montas and Holmes being traded to the A’s.  They would not have helped this year.  Montas has a 4.22 ERA and Cotton is at 4.76, while Holmes has a 8.10 ERA at AA.  Rich Hill will get over his blister – then you will have a different perspective!

The Dodgers starting rotation is in flux.  Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball – that’s all you need to know. Julio Urias is coming this week and he will be pretty damn good.  Kenta Maeda has some big issues. Ryu looks like he could go either way and Rich Hill has a blister – a Freakin Blister… not Tommy John!  It’s a freaking blister – it will get figured out. Who is the other pitcher? Oh, it’s that old worn out, no good, what-a-bad-signing Brandon McCarthy.   You know, the guys some wanted to DFA before the season.

Look at these six starters and their stats as well as their salaries:

Pitcher

Innings Hits BB K W/L ERA WHIP

 Salary

A

28.1 19 2 32 3-1 2.54 0.74

$34 Mil

B

23.2 23 7 21 0-0 2.66 1.23

$25 Mil

C

24.2 24 6 20 1-2 3.28 1.22

$34 Mil

D

28.0 28 7 29 2-0 2.89 1.04

$18.3 Mil

E

26.0 18 9 14 1-0 2.77 1.04

$23.5 Mil

F

24.0 18 8 22 3-0 2.25 1.08

$11.5 Mil

All of the pitchers on the above board are pretty dang good.  In fact, all except one are aces.  That one who only makes $11.5 million is Brandon McCarthy (Pitcher F).  Here are the rest:

  • Pitcher A = Clayton Kershaw
  • Pitcher B = Jon Lester
  • Pitcher C = Zack Greinke
  • Pitcher D = Stephen Strasburg
  • Pitcher E = Cole Hamels

McCarthy is pitching like a #2… or better.  Can he keep it up.  Yes!  He has the stuff. Will he?  I have no clue, but I like what I am seeing. Then there is that “depth” which some see and some don’t.  I have no expectations from Kazmir.  I do not expect him back, but then we have Brock Stewart who is getting healthy after a bout with tendonitis, as well as Stripling and Wood, whom I would rather have in the bullpen.  On top of that there is Jair Jurrjens, Justin Masterson and Trevor Oaks at OKC.  You could see one of them THIS week as well.  Masterson is scheduled to start tonight for OKC – if he doesn’t you know what’s up.

The Dodgers will likely ride with Maeda for one more start – he is either hurt or has developed some bad mechanical problem… or both. His ERA is over 8.00 and they can’t let this keep happening.   Ryu is set to go today.  We should get a better handle on how he is doing as he gains against the Giants in SF.  Kershaw pitches Tuesday and Alex Wood is scheduled for Wednesday.  If it were me, I would start Urias on Thursday.  He last pitched on Friday, so Thursday would be his normal day, but I would leave Wood in the pen where he seems much more effective.  That means that someone has to pitch Wednesday.  Who will that be.

Bellinger and Verdugo continue to rake.  Look for one or both at a Ravine near you soon.

Discussion (107)

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  1. Watford DodgerApril 25, 2017

    Ps

    Romo ain’t all that anymore.

  2. Watford DodgerApril 25, 2017

    Disappointing loss there.

    1 run against Cain won’t cut it.

    Home plate umpire not helping in the 9th.

  3. dodgerrickApril 25, 2017

    Giants’ pen still a problem for them

  4. Mark TimmonsApril 25, 2017

    OK, we’ve got them right where we want them!

  5. Mark TimmonsApril 25, 2017

    I think Ryu pitched very well tonight – 6 IP, 1 Run.

    McCarthy pitched 7 yesterday.

    Kershaw almost always goes 7.

    3 out of 5 starters are pitching meaningful innings.

    Things are improving.

  6. dodgerrickApril 25, 2017

    Ryu has stopped throwing his slider. Big curve, lots of changeups. Giant’s broadcasters said that their scouts say his fastball isn’t the same; they also estimated that he threw 65% changeups tonight.

    Cain hurt

  7. roger askewApril 25, 2017

    Can we puleeeezzzee get a few hits and score a damn run! It’s Matt friggin Cain, not a right handed Sandy Koufax! We should have pounded this guy by now.

  8. Mark TimmonsApril 25, 2017

    Justin Masterson just pitched 7 shutout innings as OKC won 3-0. He allowed just 1 hit.

    Move him to the head of the class!

    Rios went 5-5 and now is hitting .364 for Tulsa.

  9. Mark TimmonsApril 25, 2017

    Dang, the Giants have that great starting staff which has the worst ERA in all of baseball – 5.02! Ouch!

  10. dodgerrickApril 25, 2017

    A couple of early observations:

    Ryu’s pitches aren’t crisp. Fastball doesn’t move much unless he elevates it. Hasn’t shown the curve much. Hitting 90 on the gun, but not much there.

    Dodgers letting a lot of hittable pitches from Cain go by. Lolllypop curve, nothing fastball, some right down the middle. Plate discipline doesn’t mean letting everything go by – they should hit the hittable pitches.

    Giants have brought up one of their top prospects, Arroyo, to play 3b due to injury and struggling offense. maybe the Dodgers should do likewise?

  11. MountainbruceApril 25, 2017

    Does Puig have the best arm in baseball, and the most acurate

  12. MJApril 25, 2017

    Test

  13. Vegas DodgerApril 25, 2017

    Put Puig in the 2 hole and move everyone else down one spot. Agon clogs the bases in front of Puig, even though Yasiel has not been getting on base much lately. Eibner may be just keeping the seat warm for Gutierrez. I predict that Cain will get hit hard tonight and Ryu pitches a good game. Puig and Grandal are about to get hot.

  14. Mark TimmonsApril 25, 2017

    I checked in on some old friends today:

    Jose De Leon still has not pitched.

    Jose Peraza – .217 with a .256 OB%

    Scott Schebler – .175 with a .257 OB%

    Zach Lee – 5.63 ERA

    I envisioned better!

  15. Mark TimmonsApril 25, 2017

    I am a Doctor, well… a Water Doctor! 😉

    In retrospect, if Rich Hill indeed rested all winter to let his blister heal, that may have been a mistake. I can see him back at the end of the 10 days and pitching 2 or 3 innings a couple times a week to build a callous. Maybe a gradual stretching out. Hindsight? 20/20. Who knew?

  16. Roger AskewApril 25, 2017

    Even though I’m as frustrated with Rich Hill and his blister-plague as everybody else, still gonna go out on a limb and say someone is going to figure out how to keep it properly healed. Then look out, the damn guy is just nails and flat out filthy when he is on and healthy. Would YOU want to face him in the play-off? Hey, I know he’s old, but he is a young-old, not alot of miles on that arm. Let’s not bury the guy yet, or we might be asking for some ketchup with our crow come September.

    Also, gotta love Fox Sports, they just put out an article about the D-bags and Rock show taking over the NL West. Already kicking the Dodger Dog to the curb. I’m feeling kind of sparky because it seemed like we totally got our asses kicked in AZ over the weekend, yet we still only lost 2 of 3 and showed a pulse yesterday. Besides the butt load of problems everyone(including myself sometimes)keeps talking about that we have, figure this: The D-Bags and Rockies are playing lights out right now, we are still in transition, trying to figure some things out, and yet we are only 4 games out. 4 GAMES OUT! We can make that up in a week or less. And we will, The D-bag manager said the one thing he fears the most is injuries to his pitching or bullpen. Also, the Rockies now have 3 rookies in their starting rotation because of injuries this coming weekend if my info is correct. It’s already starting, the war of attrition, which we will win every time. Now, enough of this crap, on to Bagdad by the Bay tonight! (Still killin’ me Dodgerrick, that was classic)

  17. Mark TimmonsApril 25, 2017

    Lineup:

    1. Toles LF

    2. Seager SS

    3. Turner 3B

    4. Grandal C (you know I called that)

    5. Gonzo 1B

    6. Puig RF

    7. Utley 2B

    8. Hernandez CF

    9. Ryu

    Against RH Matt Cain who has a decent 3.31 ERA but has been lucky. IMHO

  18. Mark TimmonsApril 24, 2017

    DODGERS PLACE JOC PEDERSON ON DL,

    RECALL BRETT EIBNER

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today placed outfielder Joc Pederson on the 10-day disabled list with a right groin strain and recalled outfielder Brett Eibner from Triple-A Oklahoma City.

    Eibner, 28, appeared in three games for the Dodgers going 1-for-5 (.200) in his first stint with the big league club. Eibner, who was first recalled on April 19, posted a .344 (11-for-32)/.389/.656 slashline with eight runs, a double, three home runs and eight RBI in 12 games with Triple-A OKC.

    Pederson, 25, left yesterday’s game against the Diamondbacks in the sixth inning with right groin tightness and finished the game going 1-for-3 with a run scored, a double and a walk. Pederson has appeared in 18 games with the Dodgers this season, batting .220 with six runs, three doubles, a home run and seven RBI.

  19. Scott AndesApril 24, 2017

    Hey Mark,

    I just did. There were several talented durable pitchers available on the market that wouldn’t have cost any prospects. Yes they were more expensive but hey the Dodgers can afford it being the richest club in mlb.

    Otherwise you leave the 4th inning strugglers on the field while the kids develop on the farm and that can get really frustrating.

  20. Scott AndesApril 24, 2017

    Wow. So let me get this straight. Anyone who complains about the obvious flaws of the Dodgers is instanly labeled as a “quitter” or deserter? If you point out areas that need to be improved in order for the Dodgers to win a championship then you are instantly labeled as “giving up on the season”. Can’t we point out flaws without giving up? It is possible for people to have two conflicting thoughts in their heads at the same time. Nobody should be telling anyone how to feel or what to think about the Dodgers. We all understand it’s a long season, and being a long season isn’t an excuse for poor strategies.

    I don’t hate the front office, but I do hate some of the strategies and philosophies they have on the game. Starting pitching is overvalued? Perhaps it is only because it’s the name of the game and if you don’t have it you won’t get very far, or will struggle to the finish line.

    Things don’t have to be this hard for the Dodgers. Look at things closely. Spouting off excuses like “Long term contracts to pitchers never work out”, or “there was nobody else available”. There were quite a few talented durable starting pitchers available during the 2015-2016 offseasons. Guys like Johnny Cueto, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel are just a few that come to mind. And no Cueto is not going to have a 5. something ERA the entire season.

    Those guys are expensive because hold onto your hats here, they are good, and you get what you pay for. Do you think the Cubs regretted paying 150 million for Jon Lester? You think they want that money back? Or perhaps maybe he was worth every penny based on the fact that he helped them win a World Series. We saw how dominant he was in the NLCS. Do you think the Giants regret signing Cueto after he had a Cy Young type season in 2016? He may lead them to another championship in future seasons. Yes some aces break down or are not worth the contracts they are signed to, but that does not mean teams should just forget about signing healthy pitchers, or forget about getting valuable innings from their rotations.

    It’s just common sense, and hey this is the Dodgers here. They have the financial resources to sign like 10 Greinkes, or 20 Cuetos. We’re not talking about the Rays or Padres here.

    Yet Dodger management decided to continually sign and or acquire injury riddled pitchers that can’t pitch more than 5 innings per start. That’s not a good strategy for long term success in a long baseball season no matter what economy you are in. This isn’t about value, or trying to reinvent the game. This is about not burning out your bullpen because the rotation can’t provide the adequate innings needed so that the relievers don’t have to pitch 5-6 innings every single game without their arms falling off.

    It’s common sense. If you don’t want to spend the money in free agency, then you have to either make a trade and gasp give up a few prospects, or call up the prospects and let them pitch at the major league level. Leaving the 4th inning strugglers in at the major league level only makes things harder for the club. Again there is an easier way to win, it doesn’t have to be this hard.

    The Dodgers need workhorses in the rotation and we should all be able to critique the club without being labeled quitters. There is no need to defend executives or their wallets. I root for the Dodgers, I do not root for executives, nor do I feel the urge to defend them as if they are my relatives.

    Let’s see how this season plays out

  21. BumsrapApril 24, 2017

    Mark, the font is getting too small IMO. I’m eating carrots but…

  22. BumsrapApril 24, 2017

    I think this was from MLB Rumors:

    .

    A Major League team can control a player for six seasons after the player accrues 172 days of service time. As long as they call him up sometime after April, they can play him as much as they want without the risk of losing a year of control.

    Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias “might” make his first big league start of 2017 in the coming week, manager Dave Roberts said Saturday (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Urias would step in for Alex Wood, who Gurnick notes would return to the bullpen after making a start in place of the injured Rich Hill on Friday. The 20-year-old Urias tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings and 93 pitches Friday with Triple-A Oklahoma.

    .

    As for Hill, who has dealt with chronic blister issues since last year, he has “tinkered” with a new grip during his latest DL stint, per Roberts. Hill has also tried to cure his problems with pickle juice and rice, among other methods mentioned by Gurnick. It seems the 37-year-old has made progress in his recovery. “It’s toughened up for sure,” Hill said of the blister.

  23. BumsrapApril 24, 2017

    Stewart is in the long-toss phase of his throwing program and is scheduled to start throwing off a mound next week. Stewart said he has been told May 20 is the target for him to be pitching in games for one of the Dodgers’ minor-league teams.

  24. BumsrapApril 24, 2017

    Here’s our complete Prospect Team of the Week:

    .

    C: Will Smith, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Class A Advanced). Dodgers’ No. 14 prospect)

    7 G, .440/.548/.920, 4 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBIs, 5 BB, 5 K, 4 SB

    .

    Smith tallied a hit in all seven games last week for the Quakes, with six of his 11 hits going for extra bases. Three of those hits were home runs, largely thanks to his first career multi-homer game on Sunday, and he also stole four bases in as many attempts. And though he started a majority of his games behind the plate, Smith started two games at second base, as well as one at the hot corner.

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