Reality Check
We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The…
We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The Yankees of 2023 were a prime example of that. Their signing of Gerrit Cole continues to be outstanding, but the acquisition of Carlos Rodon has been a dud (so far). They were a team that was expected to go deep into the playoffs, but they crashed and burned.
Corbin Burnes could be the ace the Dodgers covet, or his arm may need the dreaded Tommy John. To a large degree, player acquisition is a crapshoot. You scout, you analyze, you do a physical, and you roll the dice! Yamamoto may be an Ace… or another player who failed to live up to his press clippings. Shohei Ohtani is a man who puts on his pants the same as anyone… and he will be 30 years old on July 5th. Players generally decline in their 30s, but who can guarantee anything?
Signing Ohtani is a baseball decision, not a marketing decision. The Dodgers brand is more known worldwide than practically any other sports team. Andrew Friedman is charged to win, not market, and he will make the final decision. If Shohei Ohtani becomes a Dodger, it is because they believe he will improve the team.
JP Hoornstra said that “a lot of old-time baseball fans forget that the NL Winner no longer plays the AL Winner for the World Series. It’s more of a crapshoot than it is a Championship.” That’s the reality of the baseball world we live in.
Since 2017, here is the record and result of the Dodgers by year:
- 2017 – 104 Wins – Lost the World Series to the Cheaters
- 2018 – 92 Wins – Lost to the Red Sox (a better team)
- 2019 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLDS to the Nats who were red-hot at the end of the season
- 2020 – 60 Wins – Won the World Series in the longest playoff ever (were on pace to win 116 games)
- 2021 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLCS to the World Series Winners – Atlanta Braves
- 2022 – 111 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
- 2023 – 100 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
Of course, many fans talk about how Roberts can’t manage, and Friedman cannot build a team that wins in the playoffs. Both statement brand the sayers of them as delusional morons. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and you need outstanding pitching to win… except the Rangers and the Diamondbacks, who had a 4.26 and 4.48 team ERA for the postseason. That was the worst in recent history! The Dodgers starting pitching was bad last year, but they had a 4.06 ERA – go figure! Every team that won 100 was bounced from the playoffs in short order.
The Dodgers could sign Ohtani and a bunch of other players for a total of $200 Million at the Winter Meetings and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs, or they could stand pat and win the World Series. I am not saying that actually could happen, but it could! No matter what your mouth says – it’s still a crapshoot! Still, you have to try and put yourself in the best position to win.
Dave Roberts has the best winning percentage of any MLB Manager – EVER! Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers have the best record of any team… by far! Damn I wish they were perfect, and this was a perfect world – It is not!
It’s somewhat of a crapshoot after the regular season, and those are the rules we have to play under. Still, the Dodgers will try and get a lot better! They will spend upward of $100 Million in doing so. If forced to bet… I would bet that Shohei Ohtani will not be a Dodger. I am not a hater – Just a Realist!
Here we go!
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Discussion (145)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The most vulnerable to be traded to open spots on the 40 man roster if needed seems to me would be Rojas, Varland, Hudson, all minor trades. After that if needed Gonzalez. Vivas possibly. I would say Barnes, but some say Feduccia might not hit as good as Barnes.
OK, in light of the Chourio deal, let’s revisit Mark’s idea for a blockbuster built around Burnes.
The headliner from the Dodgers is Lux, a Wisconsin boy with star upside who can play 2B or SS, and might be the Brewers new leadoff hitter. He could be a “face of the franchise” guy for the small-market Brewers while he’d always be part of the supporting cast for the stsr-studded Dodgers.
He is packaged with top prospect Busch, who would fill the Brewers vacancy at 1B. He is blocked in LA, but he could blossom into a star, much like Paul Konerko did for the White Sox.
The Brewers will require an ML-tested SP to replace Burnes, which could be Sheehan or Pepiot.
If needed, the Dodgers could sweeten the deal with a catcher like Yeiner Fernandez or a second-tier pitcher like Grove or a prospect like Kendall Williams. For good measure, maybe toss in an RP off the 40-man like Yency Almonte.
The Brewers would get a lot of contract control and reduce their payroll. In return, the Dodgers get Burnes as their new ace, Adames as SS upgrade and Yelich to play left.
And that’s not all! Because the Dodgers also wrangle premium RP Devin Williams in deal!
Or maybe not.
Both Burnes and Adames are in the final year of their contract, but that doesn’t bother me. If they play well, the Dodgers brass would try to extend them. If not, move on. Yelich is a solid veteran who would be ensconced in LF for the next several years. I’m not a huge Yelich fan, but with folks here are suggesting that a first baseman like Hoskins should play LF, Yelich looks better to me. Of course, keeping LF open for guys like Vargas or DeLuca makes sense too–but the Brewers may need to shed Yelich’s contract
The lineup could be something like…
Mookie 2B/RF
Freddie 1B
Shohei DH
Smith C
Yelich LF
Max/ Vargas 3B
Adames SS
Outman CF
Hayward/DeLuca or Taylor RF
And that would be pretty awesome. The Dodgers would have substantial offensive upgrades at DH, SS and LF.
*Against lefties, Mookie plays RF and either Vargas or Taylor or Miguel Rojas covers 2B. Max doesn’t need a full-time platoon partner, but it could make sense depending on the pitcher. Same with Outman.
The argument against getting Yelich or another outsider to play LF is that the position provides best opportunity for Vargas, Busch and DeLuca to play.
Jim Leland only one elected to the Hall by the Era committee. Lou Pinella missed by one vote.
I was watching a video from 22 of Pepiot pitching, and looking at the kid, he reminded me of another pitcher who wore that number # 47 and had long hair like Pepiot does. ………Andy Messersmith.
As the old saying goes, prepare for disappointment, that way you will be pleasantly surprised when something good happens. Dodger fans should take that to heart. USC to play Louisville in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. Will Smith will love that.
Joe Kelly isn’t worth $8m
First trade of the meetings, Braves get Kelenic, White and left-hander, Marco Gonzales for Jackson Kowar, and Cole Phillips. Cash is also heading to the Mariners. It is a salary dump with the Braves taking on Gonzales 12.25 mil and White’s 7. Dodgers contract with Joe Kelly is for 8 million.
I have always said that Gavin Lux is not a SS.
Here’s more rumors:
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/dodgers-could-be-looking-to-upgrade-at-shortstop.htmlThe Willy Adames rumor is getting teeth.
So far, the Winter Meetings are like Round One in a Prize Fight, where the boxers are sizing each other up before throwing their punches. Trades and signings could come in a flurry of haymakers!
Hard to imagine AF as a prizefighter!
First day of the meetings is always the slowest. I have to get my truck serviced today. Oil change and tire rotation. Leaving on Thursday morning for the coast.
Drive safe Bear! Enjoy your time with your family!
Saw this on another thread.
Give me Ohtani or give me depth!
I like it!
Cardinals are listening to offers for Tyler O’Neil
Some Dodger fans wanted Chris Archer. Now they have him!
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/dodgers-hire-chris-archer-as-special-assistant.htmlnever wanted him , inconsistent and attitude.
Jung Hoo Lee To Be Posted Today
From MLBTR:
Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.
Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.
Up, up and away.
The media keeps reporting the price for Ohtani’s services keeps climbing higher. Will it reach 600 mil? Maybe even go higher.
That’s bat crap crazy, of course. No player in history is worth that. Even if he can generate $75 to 100 million a year in additional revenue streams for the signing organization, there would other factors in saying such a contract would be a bad deal.
You’d never stay under the payroll tax, nor would you be able to keep a club competitive in the long run. It would take away flexibility to add other needs. Trout and Ohtani didn’t put the Angels into the playoffs.
Yes, he’s an incredible talent, but with a boat anchor contract.
A couple of reports the Dodgers are moving away, but others saying the Dodgers are all in … whatever that means.
Even if the Dodgers don’t sign Ohtani, doesn’t mean they will switch the money elsewhere, like Yamamoto. Or even make a big trade. Cease is still up in the air and apparently the White Sox wanted a lot more than the Dodgers are offering in prospect capital.
Oh, at some point they will make a trade or two, I’m sure. What that will look like, I have no idea.
For those following at home, the trade simulator APPROVES the Braves/Mariners trade!
Gonzalez, Kelenic, White and Cash comes to about 3
Cole Phillips is 3.2 (other Mariner acquisitions are nil)
Robert’s just announced Mookie is our 2nd baseman next year. Vargas and Busch better get a left fielders glove!
If Mookies playing 2nd, then Busch or Vargas will be moved. We’ll see who Dodgers like better and might end up at third next year.
I still go back to the trade I suggested a few weeks ago:
1. Trade for Cease and Robert, Jr. – Trade Busch or Vargas, Outman, Pages, Sheehan, Williams, Austin Barnes, and Frasso
2. Sign JDM
3. Sign Imagana
4. Sign Mitch Garver
Lineup:
1. Lux SS
2. Betts 2B
3. Freeman 1B
4. Robert, Jr. CF
5. JDM DH
6. Smith C
7. Muncy 3B
8. Heyward/DeLuca RF
9. Busch or Vargas LF (whichever one you don’t trade)
That lineup would be devastating!
i like it. my only concern is the corners., left and right. i would look for one more outfielder , i’m not sure the 4 you listed will hit 35 homers combined.
This smacks of an Andrew Friedman move:
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/erick-fedde-nearing-deal-with-unknown-team.htmlFor what it’s worth, the Dodgers are reportedly one of two teams to put an offer for Ohtani of between $500 and $600 million. That from MLB radio.