Reality Check
We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The…
We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The Yankees of 2023 were a prime example of that. Their signing of Gerrit Cole continues to be outstanding, but the acquisition of Carlos Rodon has been a dud (so far). They were a team that was expected to go deep into the playoffs, but they crashed and burned.
Corbin Burnes could be the ace the Dodgers covet, or his arm may need the dreaded Tommy John. To a large degree, player acquisition is a crapshoot. You scout, you analyze, you do a physical, and you roll the dice! Yamamoto may be an Ace… or another player who failed to live up to his press clippings. Shohei Ohtani is a man who puts on his pants the same as anyone… and he will be 30 years old on July 5th. Players generally decline in their 30s, but who can guarantee anything?
Signing Ohtani is a baseball decision, not a marketing decision. The Dodgers brand is more known worldwide than practically any other sports team. Andrew Friedman is charged to win, not market, and he will make the final decision. If Shohei Ohtani becomes a Dodger, it is because they believe he will improve the team.
JP Hoornstra said that “a lot of old-time baseball fans forget that the NL Winner no longer plays the AL Winner for the World Series. It’s more of a crapshoot than it is a Championship.” That’s the reality of the baseball world we live in.
Since 2017, here is the record and result of the Dodgers by year:
- 2017 – 104 Wins – Lost the World Series to the Cheaters
- 2018 – 92 Wins – Lost to the Red Sox (a better team)
- 2019 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLDS to the Nats who were red-hot at the end of the season
- 2020 – 60 Wins – Won the World Series in the longest playoff ever (were on pace to win 116 games)
- 2021 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLCS to the World Series Winners – Atlanta Braves
- 2022 – 111 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
- 2023 – 100 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
Of course, many fans talk about how Roberts can’t manage, and Friedman cannot build a team that wins in the playoffs. Both statement brand the sayers of them as delusional morons. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and you need outstanding pitching to win… except the Rangers and the Diamondbacks, who had a 4.26 and 4.48 team ERA for the postseason. That was the worst in recent history! The Dodgers starting pitching was bad last year, but they had a 4.06 ERA – go figure! Every team that won 100 was bounced from the playoffs in short order.
The Dodgers could sign Ohtani and a bunch of other players for a total of $200 Million at the Winter Meetings and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs, or they could stand pat and win the World Series. I am not saying that actually could happen, but it could! No matter what your mouth says – it’s still a crapshoot! Still, you have to try and put yourself in the best position to win.
Dave Roberts has the best winning percentage of any MLB Manager – EVER! Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers have the best record of any team… by far! Damn I wish they were perfect, and this was a perfect world – It is not!
It’s somewhat of a crapshoot after the regular season, and those are the rules we have to play under. Still, the Dodgers will try and get a lot better! They will spend upward of $100 Million in doing so. If forced to bet… I would bet that Shohei Ohtani will not be a Dodger. I am not a hater – Just a Realist!
Here we go!
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Discussion (145)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Joe Kelly isn’t worth $8m
I was watching a video from 22 of Pepiot pitching, and looking at the kid, he reminded me of another pitcher who wore that number # 47 and had long hair like Pepiot does. ………Andy Messersmith.
As the old saying goes, prepare for disappointment, that way you will be pleasantly surprised when something good happens. Dodger fans should take that to heart. USC to play Louisville in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. Will Smith will love that.
Jim Leland only one elected to the Hall by the Era committee. Lou Pinella missed by one vote.
OK, in light of the Chourio deal, let’s revisit Mark’s idea for a blockbuster built around Burnes.
The headliner from the Dodgers is Lux, a Wisconsin boy with star upside who can play 2B or SS, and might be the Brewers new leadoff hitter. He could be a “face of the franchise” guy for the small-market Brewers while he’d always be part of the supporting cast for the stsr-studded Dodgers.
He is packaged with top prospect Busch, who would fill the Brewers vacancy at 1B. He is blocked in LA, but he could blossom into a star, much like Paul Konerko did for the White Sox.
The Brewers will require an ML-tested SP to replace Burnes, which could be Sheehan or Pepiot.
If needed, the Dodgers could sweeten the deal with a catcher like Yeiner Fernandez or a second-tier pitcher like Grove or a prospect like Kendall Williams. For good measure, maybe toss in an RP off the 40-man like Yency Almonte.
The Brewers would get a lot of contract control and reduce their payroll. In return, the Dodgers get Burnes as their new ace, Adames as SS upgrade and Yelich to play left.
And that’s not all! Because the Dodgers also wrangle premium RP Devin Williams in deal!
Or maybe not.
Both Burnes and Adames are in the final year of their contract, but that doesn’t bother me. If they play well, the Dodgers brass would try to extend them. If not, move on. Yelich is a solid veteran who would be ensconced in LF for the next several years. I’m not a huge Yelich fan, but with folks here are suggesting that a first baseman like Hoskins should play LF, Yelich looks better to me. Of course, keeping LF open for guys like Vargas or DeLuca makes sense too–but the Brewers may need to shed Yelich’s contract
The lineup could be something like…
Mookie 2B/RF
Freddie 1B
Shohei DH
Smith C
Yelich LF
Max/ Vargas 3B
Adames SS
Outman CF
Hayward/DeLuca or Taylor RF
And that would be pretty awesome. The Dodgers would have substantial offensive upgrades at DH, SS and LF.
*Against lefties, Mookie plays RF and either Vargas or Taylor or Miguel Rojas covers 2B. Max doesn’t need a full-time platoon partner, but it could make sense depending on the pitcher. Same with Outman.
The argument against getting Yelich or another outsider to play LF is that the position provides best opportunity for Vargas, Busch and DeLuca to play.
The most vulnerable to be traded to open spots on the 40 man roster if needed seems to me would be Rojas, Varland, Hudson, all minor trades. After that if needed Gonzalez. Vivas possibly. I would say Barnes, but some say Feduccia might not hit as good as Barnes.
It’s eported that Ohtani has received multiple offers north of $500 million.
This really shouldn’t be surprising at all, considering the trend in salaries in other major team sports. Soccer, basketball, football–the superstars are all keep getting bigger and bigger megabucks.
And it’s no coincidence that the Brewers have now signed top prospect Jackson Chourio, who hasn’t played a single MLB game, to a deal that will be worth at least $82 million and perhaps as much as $142 million.
The Chourio deal could have implications for the Dodgers.
The Brewers now have a surplus of outfielders, and perhaps they’ll want to move Yelich’s contract in a deal for Burnes, or maybe the Dodgers would prefer Sal Frelich or ???.
The Dodgers and Brewers just match up so well…
Ohtani’s surgery was conducted by Dodgers head team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Could that provide a clue into his free-agency intentions, given ElAttrache has now conducted two major surgeries on Ohtani? Thankfully, ElAttrache had nothing but positive things to say post-surgery, and expects Ohtani to make a full recovery.
Looking more and more like it will be more of the same offseason stories of the Dodgers being the front runners on every big star then getting edged out. Come on Freidman lets get some positive news going and start going all in and landing these big names so we can win a few championships and not get swept in the first round!
If we turn our ears from idle fan speculation to what I hope is informed speculation:
Morosi:
Dylan Cease trade market is robust as the winter meetings begin in Nashville.
Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles are all involved, sources say, and other teams also remain engaged with the White Sox.
The Mariners and Rays are trade partners to watch in Nashville this week.
They have spoken about Isaac Paredes, as I reported earlier today.
Randy Arozarena is available, and it is believed his name has come up in different scenarios, as well.
Heyman:
Tons of trade interest in Tyler Glasnow. Not surprising.
Brewers are moving closer to a deal with Wade Miley. Would be 1 year.
Alek Manoah’s name has come up in Juan Soto trade talks with the Padres. Could be a good change of scenery guy.
I will quit the blog if we dont sign him. I mean it.
Dodger brass has been notoriously tight lip about free agent and trade targets during AF’s reign. Beyond speculation, I have no clue what they’re thinking.
Friedman strikes me as a guy who doesn’t necessarily stick to a philosophy but one driven by opportunity.
On one hand we make a case that he doesn’t sign players to long term deals, yet, he awarded Mookie a 12-year deal. He gave Freeman, who was already in his 30’s, a 6-year deal.
While we will never know the math behind the deals, if Dodger brass sees value in a deal, I have no doubt they will pull the trigger regardless of length or AAV.
Cmon AF, don’t give us coal in our stocking this Christmas. Don’t be a rational Santa this year! Tell Walter to sell off some of his Apple stock!
If Ohtani’s biggest want is a winning team seems he would want to sign soon as possible in order that his new team knows what there working with and can start filling other needs best they can before the better options are gone
Snell is a 5 inning pitcher. that means Doc comes and gets him after 4!!! lol just having fun!
Dodgers would be better off signing Rhys Hoskins Yamamoto Snell and Giolito then signing Ohtani. Why Rhys can Dh play Left field and first base when Freeman can DH. Yamamoto because he would be number one then cy young Snell your number two and then Buehler and Miller and Pepiot name a better starting six then that. And sign Keke as well he can play the infield and outfield as can taylor can that’s what the dodgers want guys that can play else where. Not Ohtani who can only be a DH this year. And what the heck sign Joc Pederson he can come back and lighten up the clubhouse with him and Keke back. Going to be fun like they say being the kids back together for a world series run.
I agree with Mark that getting to the playoffs year after year after year is the goal and enjoyable, even without a lot of championships, at least for me it is.
But good pitching beats good hitting in the playoffs and right about now the Dodgers don’t have that. And I’m not talking about a starting pitcher or pitchers that apparently have the tools to be an ace, that have never been a consistent ace, that’s called hoping. I’ve hoped for a lot of things throughout my life and almost all of them didn’t happen.
You better watch out
You better not cry
You better not pout
I’m telling you why (why)
Shotei Ohtani is coming to town
Bobby, you asked above if Ohtani has to leave the game as a DH if he’s taken out as the pitcher.
They put in the “Ohtani Rule”, I believe before the 2022 season, which states that if a starting pitcher is also the DH he can remain in the game as the DH if taken out as the pitcher.
Problem solved.
MLBTR story this morning said that Ohtani probably will not make his decision known by the end of the meetings or the end of the week. Most likely, it will be after the meetings are over. That could change, but right now it seems to be the case. The Dodger roster currently stands at 39. There have been two free agent signings, Kelly and Heyward. There are 23 pitchers, 4 catchers, 4 outfielders and 8 infielders on the current roster. Before they make any additions to the roster there needs to be some movement of multiple players. I see a trade coming before a signing. And the trade would have to include more players leaving than coming back. Or, they are going to have to trim the roster by cutting some players loose.
There are 3 or 4 pitchers who I would consider fringe guys who could be let go. Almonte, Gonzalez, Hudson, and maybe Yarbrough. Likely trade bait would be the kids, Sheehan, Stone, Vargas, Busch, Vivas. I think the Dodgers consider Pepiot, and Miller pretty much untouchable.
But just what AF has in mind remains to be seen. No matter what happens, the groundwork is now being laid.
“His surgery really messed with his plans!” This! I wonder how it is affecting his negotiations. I have heard more than a couple of insiders talk about selling him on being a reliever now. That shouldn’t cost you $50 mil a season.
Morosi tweet saying Ohtani prefers to play in LA where his doctors are located
The Dodger model is a good one — build a team with depth that wins the regular season, and make a a few trade deadline moves to win it all. We should have won in 2017. And, the year we traded for Sherzer and T Turner would have likely been another title if not for the rash of injuries (i.e., Muncy, JT, …).
I see the Dodgers trading some prospects to get a veteran arm for a year or two while they see how Miller and Pepiot mature, and also see what they have in Buehler and May. Having a strong bullpen will help with this strategy, which we’re starting to see come together.
I would like to see a power RH bat to complement W Smith and Mookie. Seems like we have plenty of LH sticks with Freeman, Muncy, Outman, and Heyward.
Regarding Ohtani, I wonder if the reason a contract is taking so long is that teams are balking at his asking price. For $300m plus, teams/fans expect a Mookie, Machado, Harper, Judge. We’ll never know with his agent being so secretive, but just a thought. His surgery really messed with his plans!
None of us should care what the Dodgers sign Ohtani for, it’s NOT our money. Ticket prices will go up, food,at the Stadium will go up along with parking and Dodger merchandise. Your choice and control of the situation is don’t attend any games. But you know something even if you don’t go, the stadium will be packed almost to capacity every game even with increased prices.
whoa! rough on Mark! like i said earlier, we will experience (1) joy! (2) slight satisfaction. (3) despair. 600 million ? NO! 500 million? NO! 5 years at 60 a year with incentives and an opt out? you tell me! Bear , Patsy Cline was an absolute lifetime talent! Whitney Houston was good. took my wife to see Natalie Cole a few years ago. Absolutely amazing voice. also saw Allison Krause, loved it! but maybe my favorite female singer of all time, Ann Wilson of Heart! seen them 3 times. WOW! love Stevie Nicks, and Christine McVie! was never a huge Johnny Cash fan , but love Rosanne Cash. Taylor Swift is a pretty girl and a worldwide star! i don’t know even 1 of her songs! check in later!
I got a nauseating gut feeling they do sign Ohtani, do not acquire any front line starters. Get some reclamation projects and a strikeout prone outfielder who needs to be platooned. Have a good regular season, get bounced early once again. Mark will get a bigger defense lawyer chair, blaming it on being a crapshoot, bringing up the good years over and over and over and talking about chess and checkers