Quit Overthinking It!
From the time when Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi ( FAZ ) came to the Dodgers, I was their biggest proponent. I have admired what they have started and accomplished, including the hiring of Dave Roberts whom I believe is one of the best managers in baseball. I was never the biggest proponent of analytics and sabermetrics but I grew to see the value of using it. However, the past two games
From the time when Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi (“FAZ”) came to the Dodgers, I was their biggest proponent. I have admired what they have started and accomplished, including the hiring of Dave Roberts whom I believe is one of the best managers in baseball. I was never the biggest proponent of analytics and sabermetrics but I grew to see the value of using it. However, the past two games have exposed a real flaw in their plan and if they don’t fix it soon, the Astros are going to take this World Series. If that happens, the blame will be shared by the front office and the manager.
The use of analytics, splits, match-ups and a number of stats and formulas the average fan has no clue about is what helped this Dodger team get to their first World Series since 1988, so I can’t be outraged, but I am upset. The flaw is that FAZ and Doc have overused analytics in the World Series. I’m not saying they aren’t important during this time, but I am saying that sometimes, on the big stage, you have to use your eyes and not your analytics.
Case-in-point: A.J. Hinch had several opportunities to remove Lance McCullers, Jr. during that game, when he was in trouble, but he was not as concerned with the “match-ups” as he was with what he saw. McCullers battled for 5.1 inning before giving way to Brad Peacock who should have been a middle man or a long man if you look at analytics. Brad Peacock has a 5.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP (after his great outing), but Hinch didn’t look at the analytics – he trusted his eyes and saw a guy dominating the Dodger hitters with mostly his fastball, and he left him in there for 3.2 innings to finish the game and get his first EVER save.
Dave Roberts sticks with the plan: Starter, Maeda, Morrow and Jansen. Maeda went in for Rich Hill way too early and Dave didn’t allow him to pitch long. Last night Maeda went in for Darvish and was again pulled too early. With the DH, there was no reason to take him out so soon. He is burned for today’s game so why not see if he can go 3 or 4 innings?
It’s very obvious that Yu Darvish pitched like crap and Lance McCullers, Jr. was outstanding, and then Peacock was lights out the rest of the way. Analytics be damned – AJ Hinch managed with his eyes and gut. The fact of the matter is that the Dodgers Front Office and Field Manager have had their asses handed to them the past two games. Live by analytics and you die by analytics because humans play this game and sometimes you need to trust your gut and not the great numerical holy grail. I am not saying that analytics are not important, but it is important to trust your eyes.
Now, you can say “Well you can’t win when you only get 4 hits.” That is generally true, but the Dodgers know that they hit some pitches right on the screws last night… right at someone. That will even out. The Dodgers first 5 hitters were 2 for 18, but other than Cody Bellinger’s 4 strike outs, the rest of the team only struck out 3 times. Cody Bellinger is going to have to adjust to that down and in pitch… like now. So far, the Astros have figured out he cannot hit that pitch. It’s way past time for an adjustment. He has shown that ability to adjust in the past – he needs to relax and let the game come to him. In think he will!
Here’s what the Dodgers are facing: The bullpen is not very rested. Morrow might give you an inning. I would not want to count on Jansen for more than that either. Meada likely can’t pitch. Stripling might give you an inning, but do you want him? That leaves Fields, McCarthy and of course, Cingrani and Watson as situational guys. The reason I mention this is that Alex Wood goes for the Dodgers today, and the bullpen is tired after last night. Alex Wood was great the first half of the season, but his velocity is way down and so is his ability to pitch deep into games.
Hopefully, Wood will be dominant and pitch 6 or 7 strong innings, but I am not confident in that. However, I was more confident that Yu Darvish would do that and that was a disaster, so I guess you never know. It is a crap shoot and someone has to step up. Those someone’s could be Brandon McCarthy and Yasmani Grandal. You never know. What I do know is that the Dodgers need to bring out their big sticks tonight – that can cure everything.
BTW, Alex Wood has pitched one game at Minute Maid Park, back in 2014 when he went 7 innings and allowed 3 hits with no runs. You just never know.
BTW2: I was interviewed on The Balance Sports Talk Show today. Click HERE to listen.
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Discussion (74)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Mark, that scenario would depend on the score. And if it did happen, there would be no justification to suspend Wood from any games until next year.
I tend to agree with Dylan Hernandez who is as much Asian as Darvish:
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Open on www.latimes.comhttp://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers-hernandez-20171027-story.html–
I don’t think it was racist. I think it was disrespectful, classless and stupid.
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The R word is overused.
If Alex Wood can get though the batting order 2 times, I would advocate drilling Gurriel in the buttocks with a 90 MPH fastball after that. Throw him out. So what?
And let me add, a racist gesture and words aimed at any player, and especially one who plays for Jackie Robinson’s team, deserves to be met with an IMMEDIATE SUSPENSION RIGHT NOW. I certainly don’t always agree with him, but in this case I agree with Plaschke.
Open on www.latimes.comhttp://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers-plaschke-20171027-story.htmlShamefully, Rob Manfred doesn’t see it that way.
As for Maeda, I think there was good reason to not let him go too far last night. He pitched 1.2 innings and threw 42 pitches. That’s pretty high, since what’s preferred is about 15 pitches per inning. To have let him go even another 2 innings would have probably brought his pitch count up into the 70’s. That would not only have precluded his pitching tonight, but very likely tomorrow night also.
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The bottom line is that the Dodgers are not hitting with RISP. Had they been so, they may well have been up 3-0. I’m sure that Cody and Turner Ward are working on the problem. However, although Cody is mature for his age, that’s no reason to think that he’s going to get this thing figured out in time. We can only hope for the best, but understand that this is something that Cody may have to work on long term. And because we’re not going to be told anything by the Dodgers, at least in the short term, I do wonder whether or not Cory Seager his still suffering from the ill-effects of his back and elbow injuries.
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I believe in this team, so my glass still remains half-full. And I also remember that the Cubs came back from a 1-3 start to the WS last year. And since the AL won the All Star game under last years rules, I assume that the Cubs won the final two games of the Series on the road in Cleveland. The Dodgers, if they win either tonight or tomorrw night (hopefully they win both) will be going home.
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In addition to the Dodgers being pitiful in this series when they get runners on (you can’t win on just HRs), I would love to see the umpires stop calling pitches strikes outside the box on the third base side of the plate. Patience at the plate becomes difficult when the umpires become unreliable. Video replay has shown us how often umpires can be wrong. It’s about time that hitters had a consistent strike zone that they can have confidence in. Disciplined hitters like the Dodgers have, would greatly benefit from an electronic strike zone. To those all purists out there, all I can say is, SORRY.
1) Taylor…..CF
2) Seager…SS
3) JT…………3B
4) Cody……1B
5) Puig……..RF
6) Logan….2B
7) Barnes…C
8) Joc……….DH
9) Kike……..LF
10) Wood..P
As expected Manfred did next to nothing.
Did Doc ever say why there was no challenge on Puig’s double?
I don’t think McCullers was outstanding. Everyone wants to get on Cody, and yes he needs to play better, but the biggest point in the game to me is when Seager and JT got impatient and let him off the hook.
I couldn’t agree more with Mark and less with Bluto. Baseball isn’t a game played by computers or on computers – it is played by flesh and blood people, and sometimes they fail when you don’t expect it or succeed beyond your wildest imagination. You don’t push a button and get the result that you want – you keep your eyes open and see what is actually happening on the field and make your decisions. Sure, the data informs your decision making but it doesn’t work in a vacuum.
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Roberts’ mismanagement of the bullpen in Game 2 has affected the rest of the series. Now, Maeda and Morrow will likely be unavailable for Game 4. In fact, as Mark opined, Maeda should have been extended in Game 3 since he looked great. He wasn’t going to pitch for a while anyway, he was getting guys out, and he’s a starter so he can keep going. It would have saved the rest of the bullpen for the rest of the Series.
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For that matter, he should have left Maeda in in Game 2 after lifting Hill.
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As to Bluto’s comment about “subjective nonsense”, my response it that there is nothing subjective about these comments. What is objective is the outcomes resulting from mismanagement. And no, the process is not more important than the outcomes that result therefrom. The outcomes are the result of the process, in part.
If there is a team that uses analytics more than the Dodgers it’s the Stros. Dodgers are just getting out analyzed.
Watford nailed it. To this point we are being outplayed just like we outplayed the Snakes and the Cubbies. This could change. We need to win a game to get back to L A. It’s up to you Boys!
Agree about Fox and the Stros.
And while were at it, someone PLEASE stop the lovefest between FOX sports and the Astros. I am getting overspray from the slobber over the microphone. Ok, Altuve and Correa are doing good, but they are not LEGENDS yet. Geez, I feel like I’m watching Ron Darling all over again a couple of years ago. Please make it stop.
Plain and simple, and Mark touched on this. Hitting cures everything. Get Taylor, JT, Puig and Cody going and we will all be talking a different game in the next two days. Just score some damn runs and get our swag back. Not worried just yet, tonight is our game to win. Just quit overthinking, grind the at bats like we did the first couple of innings against McCullers, and the rest will work out.
Getting outplayed, out manoeuvred & out managed.
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Simple
I hope Hinch does the right thing and benches Gurriel for tonight’s game. If not, where’s Drysdale when you need him? The Dodgers don’t like to retaliate under Roberts and the opposing teams know that.
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As for analytics, it is taking away a piece of baseball that makes it such a special sport – its soul.
It will be a sad commentary if our WS chances turned when Stripling couldn’t throw a strike in the 7th inning in game #2 forcing Doc to go to Morrow too early. Then again maybe he went to Maeda a bit too early also, only letting Hill pitch 4 innings.
Offense needs to hit Morton tonight and jump out with a big lead. Cody has to adjust, he looks completely lost and needs to read and lay off the off speed pitch inside. The Astros think they got the formula to getting Cody out and he needs to take a walk if they want to pitch inside and off the plate.
Really disappointing last night to have Seager ground into a DP with the bases loaded and no outs after McCullers walked the bases full. The first swing and miss and the DP were on off speed pitches out of the zone. I would have loved a GS or a double off the wall, but down 4-0 at that point I would have liked a patient approach, heck even take a BB but get the count into a good hitter’s count where McCullers has to throw a fastball at 2-0 or 3-0.
Bottom line is we need a lot more offensive production from 1-4 hitters tonight and I think we’ll get that. Look for Corey to have a “bounce back” game.
Hinch KNOWS his bullpen is weak.
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If a MLB manager never again manages “from the gut” I’ll be a happy man.
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Maybe if Roberts let his “junkyard dogs” do their “dog” things, or played more players with grit…
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Or if only the Dodgers had better chemistry or maximized their momentum.
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Give it a rest with this subjective nonsense
process > outcome