Quit Overthinking It!
From the time when Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi ( FAZ ) came to the Dodgers, I was their biggest proponent. I have admired what they have started and accomplished, including the hiring of Dave Roberts whom I believe is one of the best managers in baseball. I was never the biggest proponent of analytics and sabermetrics but I grew to see the value of using it. However, the past two games
From the time when Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi (“FAZ”) came to the Dodgers, I was their biggest proponent. I have admired what they have started and accomplished, including the hiring of Dave Roberts whom I believe is one of the best managers in baseball. I was never the biggest proponent of analytics and sabermetrics but I grew to see the value of using it. However, the past two games have exposed a real flaw in their plan and if they don’t fix it soon, the Astros are going to take this World Series. If that happens, the blame will be shared by the front office and the manager.
The use of analytics, splits, match-ups and a number of stats and formulas the average fan has no clue about is what helped this Dodger team get to their first World Series since 1988, so I can’t be outraged, but I am upset. The flaw is that FAZ and Doc have overused analytics in the World Series. I’m not saying they aren’t important during this time, but I am saying that sometimes, on the big stage, you have to use your eyes and not your analytics.
Case-in-point: A.J. Hinch had several opportunities to remove Lance McCullers, Jr. during that game, when he was in trouble, but he was not as concerned with the “match-ups” as he was with what he saw. McCullers battled for 5.1 inning before giving way to Brad Peacock who should have been a middle man or a long man if you look at analytics. Brad Peacock has a 5.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP (after his great outing), but Hinch didn’t look at the analytics – he trusted his eyes and saw a guy dominating the Dodger hitters with mostly his fastball, and he left him in there for 3.2 innings to finish the game and get his first EVER save.
Dave Roberts sticks with the plan: Starter, Maeda, Morrow and Jansen. Maeda went in for Rich Hill way too early and Dave didn’t allow him to pitch long. Last night Maeda went in for Darvish and was again pulled too early. With the DH, there was no reason to take him out so soon. He is burned for today’s game so why not see if he can go 3 or 4 innings?
It’s very obvious that Yu Darvish pitched like crap and Lance McCullers, Jr. was outstanding, and then Peacock was lights out the rest of the way. Analytics be damned – AJ Hinch managed with his eyes and gut. The fact of the matter is that the Dodgers Front Office and Field Manager have had their asses handed to them the past two games. Live by analytics and you die by analytics because humans play this game and sometimes you need to trust your gut and not the great numerical holy grail. I am not saying that analytics are not important, but it is important to trust your eyes.
Now, you can say “Well you can’t win when you only get 4 hits.” That is generally true, but the Dodgers know that they hit some pitches right on the screws last night… right at someone. That will even out. The Dodgers first 5 hitters were 2 for 18, but other than Cody Bellinger’s 4 strike outs, the rest of the team only struck out 3 times. Cody Bellinger is going to have to adjust to that down and in pitch… like now. So far, the Astros have figured out he cannot hit that pitch. It’s way past time for an adjustment. He has shown that ability to adjust in the past – he needs to relax and let the game come to him. In think he will!
Here’s what the Dodgers are facing: The bullpen is not very rested. Morrow might give you an inning. I would not want to count on Jansen for more than that either. Meada likely can’t pitch. Stripling might give you an inning, but do you want him? That leaves Fields, McCarthy and of course, Cingrani and Watson as situational guys. The reason I mention this is that Alex Wood goes for the Dodgers today, and the bullpen is tired after last night. Alex Wood was great the first half of the season, but his velocity is way down and so is his ability to pitch deep into games.
Hopefully, Wood will be dominant and pitch 6 or 7 strong innings, but I am not confident in that. However, I was more confident that Yu Darvish would do that and that was a disaster, so I guess you never know. It is a crap shoot and someone has to step up. Those someone’s could be Brandon McCarthy and Yasmani Grandal. You never know. What I do know is that the Dodgers need to bring out their big sticks tonight – that can cure everything.
BTW, Alex Wood has pitched one game at Minute Maid Park, back in 2014 when he went 7 innings and allowed 3 hits with no runs. You just never know.
BTW2: I was interviewed on The Balance Sports Talk Show today. Click HERE to listen.
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Discussion (74)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Extremely happy but very concerned about Turner.
He could DH tonight I guess.
What do you know Joc Pederson with a big blow! I for one did not expect him to be on the playoff roster! Great dodger win!!
lol Now it’s looking like Dodgers in 6! Turns out tonight’s game was the most important so far……..until tomorrow’s! It’s the small stuff that’s big. GO DODGERS! CHEERS!!
Pressure is on everybody.
WHEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Nice to see Cody going with the pitch. Looks like he’s made some adjustments.
Huge hit by Joc, but let’s not forget Wood, Logan Forsythe who played great defense, and got our first clutch hit. And nice to see Barnes finally extend the lead with that SF in a two strike count.
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Momentum is not only subjective, it’s totally overrated.
All I can say after that is Wow! Can’t quibble with anything with that finish! Kersh going tomorrow make me feel much better and the momentum has shifted. Total team win and a great start by Wood.
Uufffff!!!!- por fin!! At last!!!
Book ’em, Dano!
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The fat lady is singing!
Finally a clutch hit. Need more if those.
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Good to see Cody go the other way. And even though he flew out, it was good too see Cory do the same in his last at bat.
I said I would leave Wood in until he gave up a hit. I did not expect a Big Fly, but I agree with the hook!
The Dodgers have a comeback in them. Wood does not deserve to lose this game the way he pitched tonight.
The hook was too quick – again.
Arg.
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Third time through the lineup coming up. Wood faces Springer with two out, no on in 6th.
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Gives up the homer.
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Remember the process > Outcome argument?
Another great game!
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Even with Darvish’s implosion last night, the game was close.
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Would love for Seager/Bellinger to get even close to on-track.
DODGERS ARE PLAYING HORRIBLE!! I HOPE WE CAN WIN THIS GAME
Well look. Roberts left Wood in to face Altuve and the murderer’s row of the Houston lineup.
Wood is literally GIVING this game to us. Somebody, ANYBODY, quit hitting the first or second pitch and get a rally going to help this guy! The game is there for the taking!!! Pull your heads out and be patient!!
Memo to Cory Seager. Stop trying to pull everything. You hit well to the opposite field and up the middle, and you also have power to those fields as well.
Vegas, amen about the bats. If the Dodgers lose this series it’s going to be about their anemic offense.
Through 2 innings I like the way Wood is pitching. He is keeping the ball down and it is breaking down. He has 5 outs from ground balls so far. That is a swing and miss pitch with 2 strikes also. Now the bats need to get busy!
Why is getting hit by a pitch reviewable, but fouling a ball off your foot isn’t. In a word: STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!
Cody hit the ball weakly, but the encouraging thing is that he hit it to LF. Meanwhile the way Cody is being played, he could lay down a bunt or drive one through the left side.
Wood throwing 90 could be long night. His game was elevated when his velocity was in mid nineties. Well Taylor opened with a hit but for life of me I don’t know why he didn’t try to steal prior to 2 outs. Now screwed by umpire.
Why in the world Taylor wasn’t running on the pitch on any of those pitches is beyond me.
Cory Seager needs to start going up the middle and to the opposite field, and stop swinging wildly. He did that to open the series and had success.
CRAIG KIMBREL, KENLEY JANSEN NAMED 2017 RELIEVERS OF THE YEAR
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MLB and The Hartford Honor Dodgers Closer with Trevor Hoffman NL Award for Second Straight Year;
Red Sox Closer Honored with Mariano Rivera AL Award
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Kenley Jansen of the National League Champion Los Angeles Dodgers is the recipient of the Trevor Hoffman National League Reliever of the Year Award for the second consecutive season, while Craig Kimbrel of the Boston Red Sox has earned the 2017 Mariano Rivera American League Reliever of the Year Award, Major League Baseball and presenting sponsor The Hartford announced today. The announcement was made at a press conference before Game Four of the World Series, which was attended by Jansen as well as Commissioner Robert D. Manfred, Jr., Hoffman, Rivera and Doug Elliot, president of The Hartford.
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In his eighth year in the Major Leagues, Jansen became the first pitcher to win either the Rivera or Hoffman Award consecutively in the four-year history of this honor. The 30-year-old was a key cog of one of the best seasons in Dodger franchise history, as the Club set a Los Angeles-era record with 104 wins en route to its fifth consecutive NL West title. The second-time NL All-Star in 2017 posted a 1.32 ERA and a 0.746 WHIP, allowing only 44 hits and seven walks across 68.1 innings, in which he struck out 109 batters. The 6’5” right-hander also put up a 5-0 record and tied for the NL lead with 41 saves in 42 opportunities. The Dodgers’ all-time leader in saves (230) averaged 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, compared to just 0.9 walks, and limited opponents to a .171 average, including just .120 by right-handed hitters. It was the Curaçao native’s sixth straight season of 25 or more saves, including his fourth straight with more than 35 and his third of more than 40. This season Jansen recorded 10 saves of four outs or more. He also struck out the side in an “immaculate inning” – on just nine pitches – on May 18th, just the 79th such occurrence in Major League history.
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Kimbrel’s eighth year in the Majors and second with the Red Sox brought his sixth career All-Star selection. He fashioned an AL-best 1.43 ERA and a Major League-best 0.681 WHIP in his 67 games, limiting opponents to 33 hits and 14 walks in his 69.0 innings of work. The Alabama native shared the Major League lead among relievers by fanning 126 batters, the most by a Red Sox reliever since Dick Radatz in 1964 and good for a Major League-best 16.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He struck out 49.6% of the 249 batters he faced in 2017 and kept opposing batters to a .140 average (.109 by right-handed hitters) on his way to assembling a 5-0 record and 35 saves for AL East Champion Boston. He was also the winning pitcher for the American League in the 2017 All-Star Game in Miami. Kimbrel has posted more than 30 saves in each of the seven full seasons of his career. The right-hander is now the first pitcher ever to win both the Rivera and Hoffman Awards. In 2014, Kimbrel was the inaugural recipient of the Hoffman Award.
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“We congratulate Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen for being named this year’s Reliever of the Year Award winners and applaud them for their outstanding achievements this season,” said The Hartford’s President Doug Elliot. “When it matters the most, Craig and Kenley help their teams prevail. At The Hartford, we share that commitment to deliver during the big moments.”
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Balloting for the Rivera and Hoffman Awards, which debuted in the 2014 season, was conducted among a panel of seven all-time great relievers in order to determine the recipients. Rivera and Hoffman, both of whom spent their entire careers in the same League en route to the top of the all-time saves list, were joined as voters by three Hall of Fame relief pitchers – Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter – as well as John Franco and Billy Wagner. The seven voters ranked the top three AL relief pitchers and the top three NL relief pitchers based solely on regular season performance, using a 5-3-1 weighted point system.
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The AL relievers who were the runners-up are a pair of teammates on the American League Champion Houston Astros, right-handers Ken Giles (63 G, 1-3, 2.30 ERA, 34 saves, 62.2 IP, 44 H, 21 BB, 83 SO, 1.03 WHIP) Chris Devenski (62 G, 8-5, 2.68 ERA, 4 saves, 80.2 IP, 50 H, 26 BB, 100 SO, 0.94 WHIP), as well as New York Yankees right-hander David Robertson, who re-joined the team after a July trade with the Chicago White Sox (61 G, 9-2, 1.84 ERA, 14 saves, 68.1 IP, 14 H, 12 BB, 98 SO, 0.85 WHIP). Devenski and Robertson tied for third place.
The NL relievers who were the runners-up are Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Corey Knebel (76 G, 1-4, 1.78 ERA, 39 saves, 76.0 IP, 48 H, 40 BB, 126 SO, 1.16 WHIP) and right-hander Wade Davis (59 G, 4-2, 2.30 ERA, 32 saves, 58.2 IP, 39 H, 28 BB, 79 SO, 1.14 WHIP) of the Chicago Cubs.
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The Rivera and Hoffman Awards replaced MLB’s “Delivery Man of the Year Award,” which was presented to one winner in all of Major League Baseball from 2005-2013, and have continued a longstanding baseball tradition of honoring the game’s top relief pitchers. The inaugural winners in 2014 were Kimbrel, then of the Atlanta Braves, in the NL and Greg Holland of the Kansas City Royals for the AL. The 2015 recipients were Mark Melancon, then of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Andrew Miller, then of the New York Yankees, while last year’s honorees were Jansen and Zach Britton of the Baltimore Orioles.
Joe Davis in Iowa City doing the Hawkeye game. Funny, I took a pass on going to watch the Dodgers.