Beyond the Statistics
Last night s comeback victory was typical of how the Dodgers have came back to win all year, but this one was different in that Dave Roberts did not try and exploit the usual matchups. It was not an analytic driven win. As much as some may dislike, it was a win that was made on gut feelings as much as analytics. I thought Dave should have left Rich Hill in
Last night’s comeback victory was typical of how the Dodgers have came back to win all year, but this one was different in that Dave Roberts did not try and exploit the usual matchups. It was not an analytic driven win. As much as some may dislike, it was a win that was made on “gut feelings” as much as analytics. I thought Dave should have left Rich Hill in the game until it looked like he had lost it. He clearly hadn’t lost it after 4 innings. Doc did leave Alex Wood in for 5.2 innings while he was throwing a no hitter, but when he gave up his first hit (which happened to be a Big Fly), Dave yanked him. I thought that was a good call.
However, the lineup was not analytics driven as the Dodgers had 6 RH batters in the lineup against a RH pitcher. Using sabermetrics, you might have seen Utley instead of Forsythe, Ethier instead of Hernandez or Grandal in place of Barnes. One thing this lineup did is improve the defense. Andre Ethier is a liability in LF and Logan Forsythe is much better than Chase Utley. Look, I am all for statistical analysis and all the possibilities that it brings, but it was a breath of fresh air to see Dave Roberts, when the Dodgers were down 2-1 go with his “gut” and not purely follow the numbers.
Sometimes, you just have to change it up and trust the guys you put out there. When they see the trust you place in them, they often rise to the occasion. Barnes, Hernandez and Forsythe all played roles in winning that game, but no one came up bigger than Cody Bellinger who was stone-cold, dead and buried by many, and Joc Pederson, whose struggles have been well documented. Joc appears to have accepted that what he was doing was not working. He is evolving and it appears to be working. Wouldn’t if be wonderful to see him get a few more hits and win the Series MVP Award? Talk about coming full circle.
I knew Bellinger would adjust – it took him some time, but he will be a force the rest of the way. Alex Wood was amazing, especially considering how little he has pitched in the last 30 days. If the series goes 7, I would think he might be available to pitch a couple of innings, if needed. He was not awed by the Big Stage and neither was Charlie Morton. That guy pitched one amazing game too. Brandon Morrow and Tony Watson did their part, but I do not want to see Doc bring Kenley in for a 6 out save. His ERA is 4.50 against the Astros. He is not automatic against them.
Now, it’s back to Kershaw and Keuchel tonight. This is Clayton’s opportunity to throw that playoff monkey off his back once and for all. He needs to pitch the game of his life. No pressure! Just like last time. A dominate performance by Clayton tonight with the team headed back to LA would be HUGE! My only question is: Will we see Joc at DH again, or will it be Grandal or Ethier (that would defy the analytics, but maybe it all does)?
Photocredit: Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers
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Discussion (64)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I didn’t hear Orel, but I do know he’s a homer, and probably a Kershaw apologist.
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Kenley pitched inside to McCann, and we see how that worked out. Kenley just may be gassed like the rest of the pen. His pitches didn’t appear to have much bite. And quite frankly the Astros have a very talented and deep lineup. Most of the credit needs to go to them.
No doubt a gut wrenching defeat, made all the more worse by the gut wrenching defeat in the 2nd game.
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This will be hard with a bullpen that looks gassed. We need a big game from Hill on Tuesday, and an outburst by the offense against Verlander.
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Can’t blame the offense, which came back more than once in this game. Two things lost this game. Horrid pitching and criminal umpiring.
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Need to collect myself, so I have nothing more to say at this time. Maybe tomorrow, or maybe Tuesday.
That one hurts, and that’s the truth.
Great comeback, but the homeplate ump was horrible all night long, and totally squeezed Jansen on the last two batters. Just pathetic. Makes me want to consider automated balls and strikes for the first time. Never thought I would say that.
The most gut wrenching defeat of all time.
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When Kenley hit McCann I knew it was up.
I’ve always defended Kershaw in the past but today is on him. He shit the bed… twice. He’s lucky that this game is still winnable.
Kersh shrunk on the big stage. Had a 4-0 lead and then 7-4 and could put to rest all the naysayers who say he isn’t a good post season pitcher. Didn’t get it done!
It just gets worse & worse.
I thought this was meant to be fun.
Dodgers have no chance with that miserable SOB behind the plate. And I don’t see the Dodgers getting the same calls.
Joc needs to run. No excuse.
Dodgers hitters need to answer back.
Morrow is overworking
Crazy game
If ever we need an electronic strike zone it is now. The batters do not know what is a strike anymore.
With 7 runs the Dodgers should have a commanding lead. But what’s making it worse is INCOMPETENT umpiring. Seager just had two pitches outside the strike zone called against him.
Why has he abandoned his curve ball tonight?
If there was ever an argument for an electronic strike zone, this WS is it.
Home plate umpire is robbing the Dodgers.
CODY, CODY, CODY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Let’s not let up.
And the walk by Kershaw that began the 4 run inning was one of those pitches that Keuchel was getting. No walk and the entire inning may well have been different. Could still be 4-0.
Not just tonight’s umpire. Those pitches outside the third base side of the plate have been called strikes throughout this series. If there was ever an argument for an electronic strike zone this is it.
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Meanwhile Kershaw just NOT not get that call.
Home plate ump is terrible tonight. Took away a couple AB’s at least.
The Dodgers are letting Keuchel off the hook. Starting to swing at too many pitches out of the zone. If he doesn’t throw strikes the Dodgers have run up his pitch count.
Something interesting. Bleacher Report has said that both teams say the balls are slicker for the World Series. The slider is harder to throw.
AC, I agree with you Darvish will pitch game 7. Wood will be in the pen. Let us finished it in 6.
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Kike is becoming a better hitter against righties. I hope they keep Culbertson around next year. I can see Kike and Culbertson being very valuable bench personnel. I bet if you put a first baseman’s glove on Culbertson , he would look like he was playing there for years.
Forsythe is a keeper. Calm and professional. A true ball player. Pederson put a perfect swing on the HR. Not like the 2 step earlier in the year. Maybe the Astros don’t like pitchers with funky motions ie. CK and Wood. Kershaw has to keep the ball in the yard today. Mo is on our side when the game starts. Will Darvish start game 7 or Wood? Maeda was spared yesterday so he’s in for multiple innings today. I wouldn’t mind pitching him in the 9th in a save situation.
Norcaldodgerfan nailed the lineup!