Prospect Development

Alright I’m confused. Mark if you’re reading this, how much money is left to spend?

Inspired by recent hard news and squishy rumors:

Mookie 2B

Freddie 1B

Shohei DH

Smith C

Max 3B

Arozarena LF

Outman CF

Adames SS

Heyward/Taylor RF

That would be pretty potent, with a nice L/R balance and a jolt of excitement from Arozarena.

The least proven player in that lineup would be Outman, entering his second season.

Against righties, perhaps Heyward could bat behind Max and against lefties.

Do not want to trade Pepiot. I rate him higher than Sheehan.

Per Bruce Kuntz, I think:

RHP Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca are expected to be in the return to Tampa Bay as the Dodgers acquire RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot

Some speculation it may be Arozarena (based on a social post) instead of Margot.

Dodgers met with Yamamoto today in LA.

Ohtani camp presented Giants the exact deal that Ohtani ended up finalizing with LA. “We were agreeable to it,” Zaidi said. Then Giants were told it was in Ohtani’s hands. Obviously, Shohei picked Dodgers.

Farhan said today that he offered Shohei the same deal he took from the Dodgers.

We paid Ohtani 700 mil.

Giants had to settle for Lee at 113 mil.

Pirates just signed Rowdy Tellez for 3 mil.

It’s good to be a Dodger fan.

MLB trade rumors predicted Lee would get $50 million for 5 years. Giants paid more than double the prediction to land him.

Giants, Jung Hoo Lee Agree To Six-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 12, 2023 at 5:18pm CDT

1) If Lux doesn’t cut it at SS, move Betts there and stick Lux at 2B.

2) Building the best team possible gives you a better chance in the playoffs, but it’s still a crapshoot.

3) Build your team in the offseason because at the trade deadline you end up trading for mediocre players (last year is a good example), because the pool of players available is smaller than before because of the expanded playoffs. Which means more teams are in contention and unwilling to trade their better players. If you do find a star, trading for him will be WAY costly, supply and demand.

4) Hoard your top 8-10 pitching prospects because you never have enough pitching and you might have a gem or 2 in there.

Just my 2 cents.

I want to jump in on the Roberts bashing. The Dodgers should have a bench coach handle the pitching staff. Or a bum with a load in his pants.

The last 2 years show Roberts has no ability to motivate. The playoffs may be a crapshoot but the Dodgers haven’t been at the table or held a pair of dice. They played like they were holding something else.

For next year they signed the big bat they need plus Heyward. I’m hoping for 2 free agent starting pitchers and filling out the roster with the prospects. There is always the trade deadline.

the latest on Julio Urias

Joe Kelt’s wife made a social media post to reveal Joe’s new number on the Dodgers.

Guess what number he picked? Lol

The problem with the “crapshoot” analogy is that it presupposes that talent does not matter. I get that all major league teams have a “chance” to win each game, but oddsmakers set odds on each game base on a number of factors, including home field, starting pitching, how the teams have done in previous meetings, how they have been playing lately, the overall talent level, etc. This means that the best teams should win more often than not.

One sage wrote that all teams will win a third, lose a third and that talent should determine the outcome in the “middle third”. The worst team in baseball last year (Oakland) was one of the worst teams in history and still won 31% of their games; the best (Atlanta) won 64%. Talent determines who wins the middle third. And since we know the odds start over with each game (statistically), the best team has the best chance to win a given game.

The beef that many have with the Dodgers over the last decade plus is that they have won fewer post-season games then you would think they should given the talent that they have had, which is borne out by their record. And you can’t simply put it down to it being a “crapshoot”, because the odds are that they would win more than they have if it was simply a matter of odds.

Certainly, Dave Roberts has made his share of critical mistakes over the years, but he had almost nothing to do with this year’s debacle. The front office did not acquire enough starting pitching once it became clear that they had too many injured pitchers by mid-season, and the stars didn’t play like stars. The former was a calculation – it was a transition, remember, and they wanted to keep their powder dry to compete for Ohtani and other big time free agents in the off-season.

Billy Beane famously commented that his sh** didn’t work in the off-season, and indeed, it can take a different kind of team to win 100 games than to win 11 in October. In short, a couple of stud starting pitchers and the ability to manufacture runs in close games matter more in October than in May.

This is why I am convinced that the Dodgers will do all that they can to acquire at least 2 front-line starters this off-season. Not necessarily via free agency, since pitchers break and a long term deal is usually a disaster for pitchers, but one of the pitchers we keep hearing speculation about (Cease, Burnes, et al) and maybe a reclamation project.

I believe that after grabbing Ohtani that they will push in more chips to get rest of the pieces.

P.S. – I don’t believe that only mean/bad players “with an edge” win titles. If this were true, explain 2020? This front office did what they could to weed malcontents and trouble makers out several years ago. If “nice guys” could win 111 in 2022, why not the World Series too? That makes no sense at all. And if talent gives you the best chance to win, does that mean that’s only true if they are talented players with an edge?

it’s not wrong to wish for more championships ! it’s not wrong to expect more from this organization in the playoffs! agree mookie , freddie , muncy need to step up in the postseason. i for one do not like the idea of the whole outfield being a platoon ! they just got their biggest catch of the history of all free agents! the money spent on ohtani is now known not to hinder any signings or trades. so go get 2 top of the rotation starters and an everyday left fielder. they just signed a lamborghini! don’t need no chevy chevettes roaming the outfield. i really think either vargas or busch needs to be included in a package for a pitcher. pick one ! the white sox , brewers, blue jay will all want more now. give it to them. busch , sheehan, stone? why not ? still think a package for cease and robert can be done . do it!

The Royals are finalizing a deal with right-hander Seth Lugo, per a report from Anne Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It’ll be a three-year deal, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com, once the standard medical review is complete. Lugo will net a guarantee of $45MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Seth Lugo is set to sign with the Royals. The Dodgers are supposed to meet with Yamamoto on Friday. I am in California. I will try to get a story or two done while I am here, but research on this laptop, at least for me, is a lot more difficult than on my home computer.

Not only the five day layoff but the Dodgers didn’t really play a meaningful game throughout the month of September. It’s hard to grind for five months and then pretend to grind when in reality the outcome of the game isn’t critical. Athletes are not like light switches you just can’t turn your game face on and off. Not sure what the solution would be. Nonetheless in my humble opinion the month of playing just to finish the regular season is as detrimental as the five day layover.

When I was growing up and just learning the game, the most hated team in baseball was the Yankees. The reason was simple, they won, and they did it year after year. But even the greatest Yankee teams would lose once in a while. Their string of success in the late 20’s and through the 30’s was interrupted by WWII when they did not win between 43-46. They are the only team to ever win five in a row, 49-53. They also won four in a row, 36-39. They are also the last team to win multiple years in a row. 98-2000.

Now Blind Joe implies that I and maybe Mark, are content with just the one Championship over this 11-year run that the Dodgers have been on. Quite the contrary. I would have loved to have seen more Championships. But the reality is simple. It is not that easy to get to the Series. As a matter of fact, it is very hard to get there. And the best team does not always win. The winner of the wild card round has won two World Series. 2014 Giants and the 2019 Nationals.

But they have fared better in the divisional and championship series. The Dodgers have been in the wild card twice and won both times, in 2020, when they won it all, and in 21 when the lost in the Championship series to the Braves. Most fans thought they would beat the Braves since they had done that in 20. What most fans forget is that they went into that series without some major pieces. Scherzer, who saved game 5 of the NLDS, could not make his start in the NLCS. Kershaw was lost with 2 weeks to go in the season and Muncy was out for the entire playoffs after being injured the last game of the year. He played because they still had a chance to tie the Giants for the best record.

That being said, yes, the last two years have been extremely disappointing. Especially after winning 111 games in 22. But I also believe, and this is me personally, that the five day layoff really threw the hitters off both years. While SD and Az were battling for their playoff lives, the Dodgers were sitting at home taking BP and having intrasquad games. Not exactly competing at a high level there. I think that affected them. And except for game one last year, they were in a position to win all of the games they lost. They were leading the Padres in game four in 22.

If it was easy, the best team would win every year. The best team last year, the Braves, did not even make it out of the NLDS.

I read these comments that we haven’t won enough championships in our ten year run. No one will dispute that fact. What hasn’t been presented is what one would have done different that would still get us a 100 wins a season but not win the World Series. Who would have predicted that Betts and Freeman wouldn’t hit in the playoffs. Should Roberts have seen that coming and sat two of the three best players in the National League. Who would have seen four of the top Dodgers pitchers being unable or not preform in the playoffs. Urias, May, Gonslin, Kershaw.

People love to be judge mental and have the solutions that would have put the Dodgers over the top. I have two challenges: (1) state what you would have done differently last year and (2) what you would do in 24.

Though I have disagreed with both Bear and Marion occasion, I admire how they put their gonads over the chopping blocks before the events happen. So please be like Bear and Mark, predict 24 before the season.

Jay Jaffe and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs have a piece entitled:

With Mookie Betts’ Move to Second, Dodgers Infield Risks Coming Up Short

This is essentially a “hit piece” on Gavin Lux not being a SS – something I have long been saying.

Here are a few nuggets:

Even if moving Betts turns out to be the correct call, the shortstop situation feels unsettled. Lux was drafted as a glove-oriented shortstop, but as he got stronger and bulkier during his time in the minors, he stiffened up and looked less and less likely to stay there. He dealt with a variety of injuries even before the ACL tear, as well as rashes of throwing inaccuracy that appeared more mental than physical. Lux and the Dodgers acknowledged many of these issues when it looked as though he was finally on the other side of them. He began to turn a corner offensively in 2022, when he posted a 114 wRC+ in 471 PA as the starting second baseman (with left field mixed in). Lux hasn’t played shortstop regularly since a two-month mid-season stretch in 2021, and before that not since the first half of ’19. Now he is also coming off a major knee injury. We went back to watch a bunch of Lux at shortstop during that 2021 window (and more besides), and other than a 15-game stretch in which he committed five errors, he looked playable, if a bit unsteady:

That said, we don’t know how Lux will look post-injury, how long it will take him to jell with Betts as a combo, or whether the increased physical demand of their new positions will impact their offensive output. With Ohtani now in the fold and so much riding on this era of Dodgers baseball, those risks need to be mitigated, and the current makeup of Los Angeles’ roster does not do that. The Dodgers have put up with “playable, if a bit unsteady” when Muncy has played any position but first base during his tenure. With Ohtani and Freddie Freeman entrenched at the DH and first base spots, Muncy will be forced to play third base every day; his metrics there last year (-3 DRS, -5 RAA, -7.7 UZR) suggest that it could again be a bumpy ride. If Lux is substandard, the left side of LA’s infield defense will be particularly weak.

Then there is the question of depth. Rojas and Taylor each have shortstop experience, but both are well into their mid-30s. Vargas and bat-first Top 100 prospect Michael Busch are below-average athletes who are each below-average defenders, especially Busch; the latter also struggled at the plate in his first exposure to major league pitching, hitting for a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA. Prospect Jorbit Vivas, who reached Triple-A last year and who’s currently ranked no. 11 in the system, should really only play second base due to a lack of arm strength.

Update: Following publication, the Dodgers traded Vivas and left-handed pitcher Victor González to the Yankees for shortstop Trey Sweeney in order to clear 40-man space for Ohtani and the recently re-signed Joe Kelly. Below you will find Eric’s report on Sweeney from the forthcoming Yankees prospect list, where he’s evaluated as a 40 FV prospect.

If their roster remains as it’s currently constituted, the Dodgers are exposing themselves to some disastrous low-end outcomes, where their infield defense is meaningfully bad. They need an external addition to stabilize things. There are less splashy ways for the Dodgers to protect themselves, though with a relatively thin shortstop free agent class most of them are going to come via trade. We agree with Ken Rosenthal’s suggestion that a trade for Milwaukee shortstop Willy Adames, a stellar defender, makes a lot of sense for both sides. The Orioles have a shortstop surplus (Joey Ortiz, Jorge Mateo), while the Twins, Rangers, and Blue Jays all have several acceptable utility-type options.

With the arrival of Sho-Time in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers’ lineup boasts three of the majors’ top six hitters by wRC+ in Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman. That embarrassment of riches shouldn’t obscure the team’s remaining needs, and while they start with a rotation that has shed Clayton Kershaw, Lance Lynn, and Julio Urías, they shouldn’t neglect the work to be done on their infield.

No one could ever convince me the ring won in 20 and the one should of had in 17 happened because we got lucky in a crapshoot

Sbuffalo loved your post and I agree! Don’t forget May is also working his way back too! I see a six man rotation this year at some point, with May’s arm talent they may only need one starter if Buelhler is ready to go after ST. What options the Dodgers have!

Things went sideways for several Dodger minor leaguers last season. Busch is probably trade bait as he’s behind 3 MVPs and Muncy. Might not be enough ABs unless he platoons with Vargas in left field. Hopefully Vargas’ hands heal. A RHH on the cheap in LF would be nice, maybe a cameo at 3rd and 2nd against LH starters. Outman needs to play as many games as possible if only for his defense. Give him some opportunities against LH starters. Hopefully C. Taylor is healthy and able to spell any of the LHH around the field. Kike would be good fit for SS, CF and RHH depth.

Another big buzz kill was Andy Pages labrum surgery. He could have been lined up nice for a chance in LF spring 2024. Hopefully he recovers enough power. Shoulders wreck sluggers and pitchers alike.

They’ll get a couple starters at least. I think Mark is right that they’ll avoid QO recipients. Can’t kill the pipeline into the minors.

Some prospects will be traded, some will stay and develop, some will languish. 2023 was encouraging for giving prospects opportunities instead of knee jerk trades for short term bandaids. This trend will probably continue in 2024 with the crew of RH starters and hopefully Lux, Busch, Vargas, and Outman making improvements. De Luca might be a 5th outfielder type, but may need regular AAA ABs. Sweeney guy from NYY

The depth will help them win in the regular season. In season adjustments are likely as usual, but so are opportunities for kids to step up. Maybe Busch AND Vargas stick around as top backups for Freeman, Mookie, Muncy and Shohei. They won’t compromise all their depth for more than 1 one year rental. It’s a 10 year window to maximize, which is an eternity in baseball.

Okay, the playoffs, as currently designed, are a crapshoot. But MLB isn’t going back to do something less tournament like, no matter what, because more teams have a shot at the playoffs and a crack at the World Series. Competive balance, if you will, and a chance to make the Arizonas of the world, relevant.

But the past two years, the Dodgers have had too many injuries and haven’t played well in the playoffs.

Losing Urias, May and Gonsolin was too much to overcome, not to mention the injury to Kershaw. Then they didn’t hit.

So, where do the Dodgers go from here? Turn a crapshoot into their favor. Crapshoot is a word baseball types use when they have no idea how to change the odds and overcome MLB’s format. Just because they haven’t figured it out yet doesn’t mean a path doesn’t exist.

We’re counting on Friedman to find a way.

It starts with pitching, starters and depth. The relievers are pretty good. The Dodgers young pitching corps has talent, just need experience.

It’s up to Friedman to pick and choose the right starters, available on the trade market and in free agency. Will that be Yamamoto? Imanaga? Or a trade for Cease? Maybe Glasnow, who some think is the Dodgers number one trade target.

Shohei Ohtani deferring most of the $700 million gives the Dodgers an opportunity to fill their pitching needs. The Dodgers can rule baseball over the next 10 years. The team that wins a hundred games plus, then hits playoff gold.

The trade will cost a few prospects, but the Dodgers need Vargas to step up and deliver. That would be huge. They need a right handed bat. You’re right Mark, nothing is linear. I’m guessing Busch gets traded. Lux will be the shortstop and they look for Outman to continue to improve. Miller, Sheehan and Pepiot all figure to play key roles in 2024. Walker Buehler, no guarantees, of course, will be one of the keys. We shouldn’t forget Kershaw and a late summer return.