“Miguel Vargas only hit .195 and was a colossal failure in 2023. Michael Busch did even worse. The Dodgers need to do better in 2024 than Vargas and Busch!” — Actual Quote from an Actual Moron!
DISCLAIMER: No Morons were injured during the production of this blog!
I was listening to MLB. Radio yesterday, and Harold Reynolds was talking about Ohtani going to the Dodgers. He said, “Really, what other team in pro sports just wins year after year? Only the Dodgers have for the past ten years, and they will for the next ten years. Who else would play like that? Not the Angels. Not the Giants. Not the Blue Jays. Not the Yankees or the Mets. Only the Dodgers. Of course, they have only won one championship in that period, but people just need to come to terms with the fact that the best team rarely wins the World Series under the new tournament format. It’s more of a crapshoot!”
Thank You, Harold, and what he says is true: No other team in baseball wins like the Dodgers, and they are poised to keep it up. However, to keep it up, you HAVE TO have Prospect Development, and if you think that since Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch were not good last year and, because of that, will not be good this year, you are one of those actual morons I wrote about earlier. PROGRESS FOR PROSPECTS IS NOT LINEAR! Remember that one, and also remember that a team cannot continually trade away prospects for older players and expect to stay relevant. Witness what has happened to the NY Yankees.
Also, certain free agents have a loss of draft picks attached to them – from those, stay away. The Dodgers have some young hitters that are at different stages of development. James Outman saw his development accelerated last season. Jonny DeLuca also performed well in a small sampling. Miguel Vargas was injured, and Michael Busch had limited opportunities, but I would not give up on either one. Busch is most likely to be traded because of his being LH and lack of a position… unless it is in a platoon with Mookie.
I have the highest regard for Miguel Vargas because he has improved at every level and played with older players in the process. He has improved his legwork and footspeed (he has made himself a plus runner). Austin Riley made his debut with the Braves at age 22. In 297 Plate Appearances, he hit .226 with a .279 OB% and had 108 strikeouts. Then he blossomed into an All-Star. Vargas had the deck stacked against him in 2023 as he tried to play through two broken fingers. 2024 is a new year, and he needs to play every day… probably in LF. He just turned 24 and is a favorite of vets like Betts, Smith, Heyward, and Freeman because he plays the game the right way and has that youthful enthusiasm. I think his time is now.
If you look at him and say, “Well, he only hit .195”, you are looking in the rearview mirror. I think he will hit .270+ with 15+ HR in 2024 if he is given the opportunity. He has 30 HR potential, but I am aiming low in his first season. Michael Busch could platoon with Mookie, who could play RF when a Lefty is on the mound, but I would prefer to leave Betts at 2B all the time.
If the Dodgers can pull off a deferred contract with Shohei, perhaps they can defer some of Yamamoto’s and Imanaga’s contracts. Giolito might be a nice re-hab project, but if they could overpay for Yamamoto and Imanaga and not lose any players or draft picks, they would be awesome. All they have to do is sign Kike and the two abovementioned pitchers. If they need another hitter, they can get one at the trade deadline in 2024.
A six-man rotation makes the most sense since the Japanese Players are used to it, and Buehler can use the additional rest.
- Yamamoto
- Buehler
- Miller
- Pepiot
- Imanaga
- Giolito, Stone, Sheehan
Let the Prospects Play.
Of course, there are still Cease, Burnes, and Adames, but they cost prospect capital. Hoard those prospects. I heard, “Well, the Dodgers will have to trade some prospects or lose them.” Well, they did. They traded Vivas (a prospect who was blocked) and Victor Gonzalez (a useful LHP) for a SS/3B who has a nice upside. Sweeney was the Yankees’ Number eight prospect. With the Dodgers, he is ranked #18 as the Dodgers Farm System is dramatically better than the Yankees. The Dodgers were frustrated with Victor’s lack of attention to conditioning and diet. He was a close friend of Julio Urias’s, which is all I have to say about it. I think the Dodgers will try and extend Will Smith, but both sides have to agree, so there is that!
Some of these prospects (maybe over half) will flame out, but you have to keep them to know… generally. Friedman has not usually traded away the good ones (witness the Manny Machado trade). I talked to someone who knew Sweeney from Louisville, and he has high hopes for him. “Great athlete, excellent bat speed, really hard worker, and is strong as an ox.” He thinks he will be a Corey Seager-type SS (hit first, so-so defense) or a solid third baseman, as he has an excellent arm. I am anxious to see him play. He has underachieved as a Yankee.
The Dodgers still have an abundance of RHP, like Stone, Frasso, Knack, Sheehan, Ryan, Martin, and Hurt. They could trade from that surplus – some of those pitchers will be outstanding. I still like Gavin Lux as a 2B or LF’er but not at SS. I know several baseball people who feel the same way! But, then again, I did not think there was a way in hell the Dodgers would sign Ohtani for over $400 Million, so what do I know?
Discussion (32)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Alright I’m confused. Mark if you’re reading this, how much money is left to spend?
Inspired by recent hard news and squishy rumors:
Mookie 2B
Freddie 1B
Shohei DH
Smith C
Max 3B
Arozarena LF
Outman CF
Adames SS
Heyward/Taylor RF
That would be pretty potent, with a nice L/R balance and a jolt of excitement from Arozarena.
The least proven player in that lineup would be Outman, entering his second season.
Against righties, perhaps Heyward could bat behind Max and against lefties.
Do not want to trade Pepiot. I rate him higher than Sheehan.
Per Bruce Kuntz, I think:
RHP Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca are expected to be in the return to Tampa Bay as the Dodgers acquire RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot
Some speculation it may be Arozarena (based on a social post) instead of Margot.
Dodgers met with Yamamoto today in LA.
Ohtani camp presented Giants the exact deal that Ohtani ended up finalizing with LA. “We were agreeable to it,” Zaidi said. Then Giants were told it was in Ohtani’s hands. Obviously, Shohei picked Dodgers.
Farhan said today that he offered Shohei the same deal he took from the Dodgers.
We paid Ohtani 700 mil.
Giants had to settle for Lee at 113 mil.
Pirates just signed Rowdy Tellez for 3 mil.
It’s good to be a Dodger fan.
MLB trade rumors predicted Lee would get $50 million for 5 years. Giants paid more than double the prediction to land him.
Giants, Jung Hoo Lee Agree To Six-Year Deal
By Darragh McDonald | December 12, 2023 at 5:18pm CDT
1) If Lux doesn’t cut it at SS, move Betts there and stick Lux at 2B.
2) Building the best team possible gives you a better chance in the playoffs, but it’s still a crapshoot.
3) Build your team in the offseason because at the trade deadline you end up trading for mediocre players (last year is a good example), because the pool of players available is smaller than before because of the expanded playoffs. Which means more teams are in contention and unwilling to trade their better players. If you do find a star, trading for him will be WAY costly, supply and demand.
4) Hoard your top 8-10 pitching prospects because you never have enough pitching and you might have a gem or 2 in there.
Just my 2 cents.
I want to jump in on the Roberts bashing. The Dodgers should have a bench coach handle the pitching staff. Or a bum with a load in his pants.
The last 2 years show Roberts has no ability to motivate. The playoffs may be a crapshoot but the Dodgers haven’t been at the table or held a pair of dice. They played like they were holding something else.
For next year they signed the big bat they need plus Heyward. I’m hoping for 2 free agent starting pitchers and filling out the roster with the prospects. There is always the trade deadline.
the latest on Julio Urias
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/julio-urias-case-being-reviewed-by-los-angeles-district-attorneys-office.html
Joe Kelt’s wife made a social media post to reveal Joe’s new number on the Dodgers.
Guess what number he picked? Lol
https://youtube.com/shorts/uTunrAqFvKI?si=R8JbfQ7ufRdKKC2R
The problem with the “crapshoot” analogy is that it presupposes that talent does not matter. I get that all major league teams have a “chance” to win each game, but oddsmakers set odds on each game base on a number of factors, including home field, starting pitching, how the teams have done in previous meetings, how they have been playing lately, the overall talent level, etc. This means that the best teams should win more often than not.
One sage wrote that all teams will win a third, lose a third and that talent should determine the outcome in the “middle third”. The worst team in baseball last year (Oakland) was one of the worst teams in history and still won 31% of their games; the best (Atlanta) won 64%. Talent determines who wins the middle third. And since we know the odds start over with each game (statistically), the best team has the best chance to win a given game.
The beef that many have with the Dodgers over the last decade plus is that they have won fewer post-season games then you would think they should given the talent that they have had, which is borne out by their record. And you can’t simply put it down to it being a “crapshoot”, because the odds are that they would win more than they have if it was simply a matter of odds.
Certainly, Dave Roberts has made his share of critical mistakes over the years, but he had almost nothing to do with this year’s debacle. The front office did not acquire enough starting pitching once it became clear that they had too many injured pitchers by mid-season, and the stars didn’t play like stars. The former was a calculation – it was a transition, remember, and they wanted to keep their powder dry to compete for Ohtani and other big time free agents in the off-season.
Billy Beane famously commented that his sh** didn’t work in the off-season, and indeed, it can take a different kind of team to win 100 games than to win 11 in October. In short, a couple of stud starting pitchers and the ability to manufacture runs in close games matter more in October than in May.
This is why I am convinced that the Dodgers will do all that they can to acquire at least 2 front-line starters this off-season. Not necessarily via free agency, since pitchers break and a long term deal is usually a disaster for pitchers, but one of the pitchers we keep hearing speculation about (Cease, Burnes, et al) and maybe a reclamation project.
I believe that after grabbing Ohtani that they will push in more chips to get rest of the pieces.
P.S. – I don’t believe that only mean/bad players “with an edge” win titles. If this were true, explain 2020? This front office did what they could to weed malcontents and trouble makers out several years ago. If “nice guys” could win 111 in 2022, why not the World Series too? That makes no sense at all. And if talent gives you the best chance to win, does that mean that’s only true if they are talented players with an edge?
it’s not wrong to wish for more championships ! it’s not wrong to expect more from this organization in the playoffs! agree mookie , freddie , muncy need to step up in the postseason. i for one do not like the idea of the whole outfield being a platoon ! they just got their biggest catch of the history of all free agents! the money spent on ohtani is now known not to hinder any signings or trades. so go get 2 top of the rotation starters and an everyday left fielder. they just signed a lamborghini! don’t need no chevy chevettes roaming the outfield. i really think either vargas or busch needs to be included in a package for a pitcher. pick one ! the white sox , brewers, blue jay will all want more now. give it to them. busch , sheehan, stone? why not ? still think a package for cease and robert can be done . do it!
The Royals are finalizing a deal with right-hander Seth Lugo, per a report from Anne Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It’ll be a three-year deal, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com, once the standard medical review is complete. Lugo will net a guarantee of $45MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
Seth Lugo is set to sign with the Royals. The Dodgers are supposed to meet with Yamamoto on Friday. I am in California. I will try to get a story or two done while I am here, but research on this laptop, at least for me, is a lot more difficult than on my home computer.
Not only the five day layoff but the Dodgers didn’t really play a meaningful game throughout the month of September. It’s hard to grind for five months and then pretend to grind when in reality the outcome of the game isn’t critical. Athletes are not like light switches you just can’t turn your game face on and off. Not sure what the solution would be. Nonetheless in my humble opinion the month of playing just to finish the regular season is as detrimental as the five day layover.
When I was growing up and just learning the game, the most hated team in baseball was the Yankees. The reason was simple, they won, and they did it year after year. But even the greatest Yankee teams would lose once in a while. Their string of success in the late 20’s and through the 30’s was interrupted by WWII when they did not win between 43-46. They are the only team to ever win five in a row, 49-53. They also won four in a row, 36-39. They are also the last team to win multiple years in a row. 98-2000.
Now Blind Joe implies that I and maybe Mark, are content with just the one Championship over this 11-year run that the Dodgers have been on. Quite the contrary. I would have loved to have seen more Championships. But the reality is simple. It is not that easy to get to the Series. As a matter of fact, it is very hard to get there. And the best team does not always win. The winner of the wild card round has won two World Series. 2014 Giants and the 2019 Nationals.
But they have fared better in the divisional and championship series. The Dodgers have been in the wild card twice and won both times, in 2020, when they won it all, and in 21 when the lost in the Championship series to the Braves. Most fans thought they would beat the Braves since they had done that in 20. What most fans forget is that they went into that series without some major pieces. Scherzer, who saved game 5 of the NLDS, could not make his start in the NLCS. Kershaw was lost with 2 weeks to go in the season and Muncy was out for the entire playoffs after being injured the last game of the year. He played because they still had a chance to tie the Giants for the best record.
That being said, yes, the last two years have been extremely disappointing. Especially after winning 111 games in 22. But I also believe, and this is me personally, that the five day layoff really threw the hitters off both years. While SD and Az were battling for their playoff lives, the Dodgers were sitting at home taking BP and having intrasquad games. Not exactly competing at a high level there. I think that affected them. And except for game one last year, they were in a position to win all of the games they lost. They were leading the Padres in game four in 22.
If it was easy, the best team would win every year. The best team last year, the Braves, did not even make it out of the NLDS.
I read these comments that we haven’t won enough championships in our ten year run. No one will dispute that fact. What hasn’t been presented is what one would have done different that would still get us a 100 wins a season but not win the World Series. Who would have predicted that Betts and Freeman wouldn’t hit in the playoffs. Should Roberts have seen that coming and sat two of the three best players in the National League. Who would have seen four of the top Dodgers pitchers being unable or not preform in the playoffs. Urias, May, Gonslin, Kershaw.
People love to be judge mental and have the solutions that would have put the Dodgers over the top. I have two challenges: (1) state what you would have done differently last year and (2) what you would do in 24.
Though I have disagreed with both Bear and Marion occasion, I admire how they put their gonads over the chopping blocks before the events happen. So please be like Bear and Mark, predict 24 before the season.
Jay Jaffe and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs have a piece entitled:
With Mookie Betts’ Move to Second, Dodgers Infield Risks Coming Up Short
This is essentially a “hit piece” on Gavin Lux not being a SS – something I have long been saying.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-mookie-betts-move-to-second-dodgers-infield-risks-coming-up-short/
Here are a few nuggets:
Even if moving Betts turns out to be the correct call, the shortstop situation feels unsettled. Lux was drafted as a glove-oriented shortstop, but as he got stronger and bulkier during his time in the minors, he stiffened up and looked less and less likely to stay there. He dealt with a variety of injuries even before the ACL tear, as well as rashes of throwing inaccuracy that appeared more mental than physical. Lux and the Dodgers acknowledged many of these issues when it looked as though he was finally on the other side of them. He began to turn a corner offensively in 2022, when he posted a 114 wRC+ in 471 PA as the starting second baseman (with left field mixed in). Lux hasn’t played shortstop regularly since a two-month mid-season stretch in 2021, and before that not since the first half of ’19. Now he is also coming off a major knee injury. We went back to watch a bunch of Lux at shortstop during that 2021 window (and more besides), and other than a 15-game stretch in which he committed five errors, he looked playable, if a bit unsteady:
That said, we don’t know how Lux will look post-injury, how long it will take him to jell with Betts as a combo, or whether the increased physical demand of their new positions will impact their offensive output. With Ohtani now in the fold and so much riding on this era of Dodgers baseball, those risks need to be mitigated, and the current makeup of Los Angeles’ roster does not do that. The Dodgers have put up with “playable, if a bit unsteady” when Muncy has played any position but first base during his tenure. With Ohtani and Freddie Freeman entrenched at the DH and first base spots, Muncy will be forced to play third base every day; his metrics there last year (-3 DRS, -5 RAA, -7.7 UZR) suggest that it could again be a bumpy ride. If Lux is substandard, the left side of LA’s infield defense will be particularly weak.
Then there is the question of depth. Rojas and Taylor each have shortstop experience, but both are well into their mid-30s. Vargas and bat-first Top 100 prospect Michael Busch are below-average athletes who are each below-average defenders, especially Busch; the latter also struggled at the plate in his first exposure to major league pitching, hitting for a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA. Prospect Jorbit Vivas, who reached Triple-A last year and who’s currently ranked no. 11 in the system, should really only play second base due to a lack of arm strength.
Update: Following publication, the Dodgers traded Vivas and left-handed pitcher Victor González to the Yankees for shortstop Trey Sweeney in order to clear 40-man space for Ohtani and the recently re-signed Joe Kelly. Below you will find Eric’s report on Sweeney from the forthcoming Yankees prospect list, where he’s evaluated as a 40 FV prospect.
If their roster remains as it’s currently constituted, the Dodgers are exposing themselves to some disastrous low-end outcomes, where their infield defense is meaningfully bad. They need an external addition to stabilize things. There are less splashy ways for the Dodgers to protect themselves, though with a relatively thin shortstop free agent class most of them are going to come via trade. We agree with Ken Rosenthal’s suggestion that a trade for Milwaukee shortstop Willy Adames, a stellar defender, makes a lot of sense for both sides. The Orioles have a shortstop surplus (Joey Ortiz, Jorge Mateo), while the Twins, Rangers, and Blue Jays all have several acceptable utility-type options.
With the arrival of Sho-Time in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers’ lineup boasts three of the majors’ top six hitters by wRC+ in Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman. That embarrassment of riches shouldn’t obscure the team’s remaining needs, and while they start with a rotation that has shed Clayton Kershaw, Lance Lynn, and Julio Urías, they shouldn’t neglect the work to be done on their infield.
No one could ever convince me the ring won in 20 and the one should of had in 17 happened because we got lucky in a crapshoot
Sbuffalo loved your post and I agree! Don’t forget May is also working his way back too! I see a six man rotation this year at some point, with May’s arm talent they may only need one starter if Buelhler is ready to go after ST. What options the Dodgers have!
Things went sideways for several Dodger minor leaguers last season. Busch is probably trade bait as he’s behind 3 MVPs and Muncy. Might not be enough ABs unless he platoons with Vargas in left field. Hopefully Vargas’ hands heal. A RHH on the cheap in LF would be nice, maybe a cameo at 3rd and 2nd against LH starters. Outman needs to play as many games as possible if only for his defense. Give him some opportunities against LH starters. Hopefully C. Taylor is healthy and able to spell any of the LHH around the field. Kike would be good fit for SS, CF and RHH depth.
Another big buzz kill was Andy Pages labrum surgery. He could have been lined up nice for a chance in LF spring 2024. Hopefully he recovers enough power. Shoulders wreck sluggers and pitchers alike.
They’ll get a couple starters at least. I think Mark is right that they’ll avoid QO recipients. Can’t kill the pipeline into the minors.
Some prospects will be traded, some will stay and develop, some will languish. 2023 was encouraging for giving prospects opportunities instead of knee jerk trades for short term bandaids. This trend will probably continue in 2024 with the crew of RH starters and hopefully Lux, Busch, Vargas, and Outman making improvements. De Luca might be a 5th outfielder type, but may need regular AAA ABs. Sweeney guy from NYY
The depth will help them win in the regular season. In season adjustments are likely as usual, but so are opportunities for kids to step up. Maybe Busch AND Vargas stick around as top backups for Freeman, Mookie, Muncy and Shohei. They won’t compromise all their depth for more than 1 one year rental. It’s a 10 year window to maximize, which is an eternity in baseball.
Okay, the playoffs, as currently designed, are a crapshoot. But MLB isn’t going back to do something less tournament like, no matter what, because more teams have a shot at the playoffs and a crack at the World Series. Competive balance, if you will, and a chance to make the Arizonas of the world, relevant.
But the past two years, the Dodgers have had too many injuries and haven’t played well in the playoffs.
Losing Urias, May and Gonsolin was too much to overcome, not to mention the injury to Kershaw. Then they didn’t hit.
So, where do the Dodgers go from here? Turn a crapshoot into their favor. Crapshoot is a word baseball types use when they have no idea how to change the odds and overcome MLB’s format. Just because they haven’t figured it out yet doesn’t mean a path doesn’t exist.
We’re counting on Friedman to find a way.
It starts with pitching, starters and depth. The relievers are pretty good. The Dodgers young pitching corps has talent, just need experience.
It’s up to Friedman to pick and choose the right starters, available on the trade market and in free agency. Will that be Yamamoto? Imanaga? Or a trade for Cease? Maybe Glasnow, who some think is the Dodgers number one trade target.
Shohei Ohtani deferring most of the $700 million gives the Dodgers an opportunity to fill their pitching needs. The Dodgers can rule baseball over the next 10 years. The team that wins a hundred games plus, then hits playoff gold.
The trade will cost a few prospects, but the Dodgers need Vargas to step up and deliver. That would be huge. They need a right handed bat. You’re right Mark, nothing is linear. I’m guessing Busch gets traded. Lux will be the shortstop and they look for Outman to continue to improve. Miller, Sheehan and Pepiot all figure to play key roles in 2024. Walker Buehler, no guarantees, of course, will be one of the keys. We shouldn’t forget Kershaw and a late summer return.
Andrew –
I agree completely with your comments. I also appreciate a professional athlete like Ohtani who understands the concept of “team” success rather then have an “all about me attitude!” I hope that catches on in the sports world – professional on down to high school levels. That is an “old school attitude” but that is what I am….
I want to wish everyone on this extraordinary Dodger site that is manned predominately by Mark and Bear with all its insightful informative articles,and tireless work, a Happy, Healthy Holiday Season. We are very fortunate to be Dodger fans and should enjoy Shohei Ohtani the person and player and not worry about the amount of the contract. This is a once in a lifetime player with enormous talents we have all have not experienced before. Cheers to the upcoming championship years ahead of us.
I think Roberts made it clear that Mookie will be full-time at 2B. Last season, Mookie shuttled between 2B and RF after the Dodger brass lost patience with Miguelito’s struggles.
Heyward will play RF against righthanded pitching. His platoon partner, right now, figures to be righty hitters Taylor or DeLuca. If Mookie was to move to RF when Heyward sits against lefties, then righthanded hitter like Vargas, Taylor or Rojas would play at 2B. It wouldn’t be the lefty-swinging Busch, unless he has reverse splits.
So Busch is unlikely to play 2B unless something bad happens to Mookie.
That leaves LF as the best opportunity for Busch–but it’s an opportunity shared by Vargas and DeLuca as well.
Of those three players, DeLuca is the one true outfielder, with the greatest speed. In his brief time in the majors, he outhit both Busch and Vargas. With a great spring, DeLuca might even take over LF, much as Outman surprised his critics last Spring. But we obviously can’t count on that.
As Mark has mentioned, DeLuca could platoon with Outman. But playing them in a platoon could stunt their progress.
Keeping all three–Busch, Vargas, DeLuca–would ensure that none of them really have that “runway” to prove themselves. One or two will have much better opportunities if they are traded for guys like Burnes, Cease, Beiber or Glasnow.
The Dodgers’ biggest problem is the quality of the rotation, in particular the lack of a true ace. Solving the prospect logjam can fix the problem.
If the Dodgers can’t figure out LF with players on the roster, there is no shortage of good options on the free agent market.
Yammamoto incoming, just makes too much sense.
I can’t believe we’d target Hader, mainly due to contract length and losing another draft pick, but this dude thinks othertwise:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10100824-mlb-rumors-josh-hader-eyed-by-dodgers-after-ohtani-contract-amid-yamamoto-pursuit
I am not satisfied with one Championship per decade (it should have been two, but I digress), it’s also very apparent to me that things have changed. If I have to explain how, the odds are (1) You think winners built Las Vegas; and (2) The team with the best record or talent wins.
The fact that a team wins 100 games makes them a contender. In 2023, there were too many pitching injuries, but stranger things have happened, and it is a crapshoot, no matter what anyone thinks.
It didn’t used to be. Before the playoffs, a team had at least a 50/50 chance. “Statistics and Probability 101” taught me that!
From the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/sports/baseball/mlb-postseason-crapshoot-braves-dodgers-orioles-9e85924c
In part:
The word that baseball executives utter most frequently each October comes not from the diamond, but the casino floor. “Crapshoot” has become the game’s go-to way of describing the experience of guiding a team through the MLB playoffs.
It is used most frequently to explain why teams that were powerful during the 162-game regular season are vulnerable to being unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs in early rounds. The crapshoot effect is trotted out almost annually as a way to understand why the Los Angeles Dodgers—who have won more than 100 games five times since 2017—have only one World Series title, in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
“Crapshoot” is also a favored phrase of Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, whose team missed the postseason for the first time since 2016 and hasn’t been to a World Series since 2009.
The first “crapshoot” outcome of this postseason came when the 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks swept the 92-win Milwaukee Brewers in the three-game wild-card series. It was the same when the Tampa Bay Rays—winners of 99 regular-season games—were quickly ousted from the postseason by a 90-win Texas club. You’ll hear about it again next week if the Dodgers or Braves, winners of 100 and 104 games respectively in 2023, stumble in their division series to the Phillies and Diamondbacks.
The use of the term “crapshoot,” like most things in the sport these days, dates back to the book “Moneyball” by Michael Lewis. In it, then—A’s general manager Billy Beane called the amateur draft a “crapshoot.” Later, Beane describes the playoffs as “luck,” and Lewis assigns the word “crapshoot” to the concept of the playoffs, too.
“I did play a little bit of craps in Puerto Rico in 1985 when I was in Winter Ball,” Beane said this week. “Beyond that, I wish I could think of a cute and funny way to describe why I chose ‘crapshoot.’”
It’s a term—and sentiment—that has risen in baseball over the past 20 years as probabilistic thinking has penetrated every corner of the industry, at a time when the playoff format itself has expanded to include up to four series. The latter makes it a much longer road to the World Series than the simple days when the top team in each league squared off in the Fall Classic.
The expanded postseason, which now includes three wild-card teams and a three-game wild-card round before the division series, has seemed to increasingly separate the odds of winning a World Series from the success over a 162-game season.
Orioles assistant general manager Sig Mejdal, a former blackjack dealer turned baseball analyst, has considered the luck element of the postseason extensively throughout his nearly 20-year career in baseball. What does the postseason tell us, if not who is the best team in baseball this year?
“It tells you who plays the best in these five and seven game samples, and it’s tremendously exciting,” Mejdal said.
The rise of randomness and luck as baseball has expanded the postseason raises the question of whether it’s good for entertainment, or an affront to everything the regular season represents.
“This is the business we’ve chosen, and you understand that what we do has some random parts to it,” said Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes. “That’s what’s frustrating about baseball, and also what’s beautiful about it.”
There’s a reason the game of “craps” is an apt metaphor for executives instead of more skill-based casino games like blackjack. Success in baseball is a mix of skill and luck, and the two elements generally tend to balance out over the span of a 162-game regular season. In a breakneck postseason made up of short series, however, executives feel the element of “skill” becomes less prevalent and “luck” takes center stage.
“My s___ doesn’t work in the playoffs,” Beane famously said in “Moneyball.” “My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f______ luck.”
This turned out to be unsatisfyingly true for the A’s, who have reached the postseason 11 times since 2000. They advanced beyond the ALDS once, and were swept in that ALCS appearance in 2006.
Historical postseason data seems to be on the side of the executives. According to research from Stats Perform, dating back to 1995, the team with a better regular season record is 116-100 in postseason series, which amounts to a 53.7% rate of success. Additionally, teams with a home-field advantage in a postseason series have won 54.3% of the time dating back to 1995.
A 54-46 split in outcomes for the statistically better team is, still, better than the odds a craps player faces when he plays at a table, but the advantage remains slim. When success in any given postseason series is little more than a coin flip, it only reinforces the idea—presented most prominently by Beane—that a front office’s job is to simply get a team to the playoffs and from there, their chances of winning or losing are just about equal.
Still, there are some within the game who are resistant to the idea that the postseason is a “crapshoot,” and are wary of the way the sentiment affects a team’s approach in October.
“I think that thinking the playoffs are 100% random is a disease,” said one longtime AL baseball operations executive who was not authorized to speak publicly about his team’s postseason strategy. “Pure scientific and statistical logic, sure, there’s a lot of luck and randomness. But when you treat that dogmatically, you dissociate yourself from the actual reality of human beings needing to be at max confidence and max focus to win that tournament.”
The question for executives is whether there is a way to engineer a higher rate of skill into this increasingly luck-based tournament.
“I definitely think there’s a difference between an optimized regular season team and an optimized postseason team,” said Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “In 1997, with the Marlins, we knew it would be difficult to have a better record than the Braves in the regular season. We thought that we would have a much better chance in a short series, given the way we were built.”
The 1997 Marlins, who finished behind the Braves in the NL East, did indeed win the World Series that year. The difference between a regular season team and postseason team, in Dombrowski’s opinion, is that a great regular season team needs roster depth and a great postseason team needs top-end talent.
The reality that even a great team faces a tough road to winning the championship can cause a practical, but unenthusiastic, mindset when it comes to the concept of winning. Is it better to be a 99-win team in the regular season that loses in a three-game wild-card series, or an 87-win team in the regular season that advances to the division series?
“It is very convenient for a general manager to say, I got them there,” said Dominic “The Dice Dominator” LoRiggio, a professional craps player who believes he has developed a dice rolling style that allows for replicable skill in the luck-based game. “I put the players together. And if they don’t make it any further, you know, it was a crapshoot.”
LoRiggio believes the comparison between baseball and craps is apt, even if it’s a convenient excuse for failure.
“Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak had a bit of luck involved,” he said. “A quarter of an inch one way or another and the shortstop could have gotten to the ball. Any long roll with the dice, no matter how much skill you have [like myself] has some luck involved as well.”
The nature of baseball means that the best regular season team may not be the best postseason team. Player health, individual streaks, and luck have a significant impact on how equipped or ill-equipped a team is to run through the monthlong postseason. It’s an advantage to have a more skilled roster than your opponent when entering a series, but hardly significant enough to overcome the “luck and randomness” that make the postseason exciting and infuriating.
“The game employs a lot of really smart, brilliant young executives who have allowed my quote to age pretty well,” Beane said. “I felt the math was going to be on my side that the quote would age pretty well, but it was controversial at the time.”
Controversy, as it has done repeatedly over the past 20 years of baseball, has now become convention. Roll the dice, hit the ball, hope that kismet is rooting for your team’s side.”
Don’t confuse being smart with being weak!
I too believe in Vargas and Busch and would like to see them play. No more Peraltas please.