Prospect Development

“Miguel Vargas only hit .195 and was a colossal failure in 2023. Michael Busch did even worse. The Dodgers need to do better in 2024 than Vargas and Busch!” — Actual Quote from an Actual Moron!

DISCLAIMER: No Morons were injured during the production of this blog!

I was listening to MLB. Radio yesterday, and Harold Reynolds was talking about Ohtani going to the Dodgers. He said, “Really, what other team in pro sports just wins year after year? Only the Dodgers have for the past ten years, and they will for the next ten years. Who else would play like that? Not the Angels. Not the Giants. Not the Blue Jays. Not the Yankees or the Mets. Only the Dodgers. Of course, they have only won one championship in that period, but people just need to come to terms with the fact that the best team rarely wins the World Series under the new tournament format. It’s more of a crapshoot!”

Thank You, Harold, and what he says is true: No other team in baseball wins like the Dodgers, and they are poised to keep it up. However, to keep it up, you HAVE TO have Prospect Development, and if you think that since Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch were not good last year and, because of that, will not be good this year, you are one of those actual morons I wrote about earlier. PROGRESS FOR PROSPECTS IS NOT LINEAR! Remember that one, and also remember that a team cannot continually trade away prospects for older players and expect to stay relevant. Witness what has happened to the NY Yankees.

Also, certain free agents have a loss of draft picks attached to them – from those, stay away. The Dodgers have some young hitters that are at different stages of development. James Outman saw his development accelerated last season. Jonny DeLuca also performed well in a small sampling. Miguel Vargas was injured, and Michael Busch had limited opportunities, but I would not give up on either one. Busch is most likely to be traded because of his being LH and lack of a position… unless it is in a platoon with Mookie.

I have the highest regard for Miguel Vargas because he has improved at every level and played with older players in the process. He has improved his legwork and footspeed (he has made himself a plus runner). Austin Riley made his debut with the Braves at age 22. In 297 Plate Appearances, he hit .226 with a .279 OB% and had 108 strikeouts. Then he blossomed into an All-Star. Vargas had the deck stacked against him in 2023 as he tried to play through two broken fingers. 2024 is a new year, and he needs to play every day… probably in LF. He just turned 24 and is a favorite of vets like Betts, Smith, Heyward, and Freeman because he plays the game the right way and has that youthful enthusiasm. I think his time is now.

If you look at him and say, “Well, he only hit .195”, you are looking in the rearview mirror. I think he will hit .270+ with 15+ HR in 2024 if he is given the opportunity. He has 30 HR potential, but I am aiming low in his first season. Michael Busch could platoon with Mookie, who could play RF when a Lefty is on the mound, but I would prefer to leave Betts at 2B all the time.

If the Dodgers can pull off a deferred contract with Shohei, perhaps they can defer some of Yamamoto’s and Imanaga’s contracts. Giolito might be a nice re-hab project, but if they could overpay for Yamamoto and Imanaga and not lose any players or draft picks, they would be awesome. All they have to do is sign Kike and the two abovementioned pitchers. If they need another hitter, they can get one at the trade deadline in 2024.

A six-man rotation makes the most sense since the Japanese Players are used to it, and Buehler can use the additional rest.

1. Yamamoto
2. Buehler
3. Miller
4. Pepiot
5. Imanaga
6. Giolito, Stone, Sheehan

Let the Prospects Play.

Of course, there are still Cease, Burnes, and Adames, but they cost prospect capital. Hoard those prospects. I heard, “Well, the Dodgers will have to trade some prospects or lose them.” Well, they did. They traded Vivas (a prospect who was blocked) and Victor Gonzalez (a useful LHP) for a SS/3B who has a nice upside. Sweeney was the Yankees’ Number eight prospect. With the Dodgers, he is ranked #18 as the Dodgers Farm System is dramatically better than the Yankees. The Dodgers were frustrated with Victor’s lack of attention to conditioning and diet. He was a close friend of Julio Urias’s, which is all I have to say about it. I think the Dodgers will try and extend Will Smith, but both sides have to agree, so there is that!

Some of these prospects (maybe over half) will flame out, but you have to keep them to know… generally. Friedman has not usually traded away the good ones (witness the Manny Machado trade). I talked to someone who knew Sweeney from Louisville, and he has high hopes for him. “Great athlete, excellent bat speed, really hard worker, and is strong as an ox.” He thinks he will be a Corey Seager-type SS (hit first, so-so defense) or a solid third baseman, as he has an excellent arm. I am anxious to see him play. He has underachieved as a Yankee.

The Dodgers still have an abundance of RHP, like Stone, Frasso, Knack, Sheehan, Ryan, Martin, and Hurt. They could trade from that surplus – some of those pitchers will be outstanding. I still like Gavin Lux as a 2B or LF’er but not at SS. I know several baseball people who feel the same way! But, then again, I did not think there was a way in hell the Dodgers would sign Ohtani for over $400 Million, so what do I know?