I find it humorous that some of you think I was hiding yesterday after the Ohtani signing was announced. I would urge you not to judge me by your proclivity to hide when you are faced with what you may believe is adversity. First of all, this is baseball… not real life! Nobody died, and nothing terrible happened. The Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani, and that is it. I did not think it would happen because of … well, we will get into that in a moment. But yesterday, in what is a Christmas Tradition for our family, we all attended “A Christmas Carol” at the Indiana Repertory Theater in Indianapolis. My wife’s great-niece, Juniper, was Tiny Tim, and she stole the show. You can see her in this clip:
It turns out that we had no cell service inside (probably by design) and so I only learned of the signing when we came out of the theater at about 5 PM EDT. Then, the whole family came over to our house for a typical Filipino Feast and hung around as we watched the Pacers get shellacked by the Lakers. It was a good day… all around… and family always comes before baseball. However, there are a lot of layers to the Shohei Ohtani Saga, and I will attempt to address them.
Shohei Ohtani and his Agent, Nez Balelo, Were Playing Chess While the Dodgers were Playing Checkers. – On his best day, Scott Boras is a piker compared to these two. Scott Boras’ biggest contract was the Aaron Judge deal for 10 years and $360 MM. Nez Balelo blew that out of the water as he doubled Boras’ Best Deal! $700 Million for 10-Years! Balelo likely even planted the fake story that Ohtani was going to sign with Toronto and used poor JP Hoornstra as his pawn to relay the fake news. Nez knew that the Dodgers were “all in” on Ohtani and would pay “anything” for him, so he drove up the price even higher. It might have even been by $200 MM – we may find out someday.
Scott Boras negotiates in the media, while Nez Balelo is cloaked in secrecy! Boras can learn a thing or two from Balelo! Nez is the new King of Agents – Period! He out-negotiated the entire Dodgers’ front office. Game – Set – and Match!
The Dodger’s ownership did not care what they had to pay for the team when they bought it. A $2.1 Billion Investment made no sense on paper at the time. However, they knew that they had a brand that was iconic and would grow exponentially over time. They also know that baseball is becoming an International Game and that they need some diversity as they grow it around the globe. Do not be surprised if the Dodgers also WAY overpay for Yamamoto, Imagana, and Lee!
Yes, I understand the time value of deferred money, and the Dodgers will likely make the same kind of deals with the aforementioned players. They will do this because it will enable them to sell the team to International Investors for as much as $10 to $15 Billion in the next couple of years. They are poised to take the team to the highest valuation of any sports team – EVER! You will not hear about this right away, but it will happen soon enough.
Andrew Friedman did not Approve this Deal. This deal was driven by the front office types who do not run the baseball side of things. From a baseball standpoint, this deal is flat-out felony stupid! However, the deal is not about baseball as much as it is about getting a huge evaluation of the Dodgers. Guggenheim and Company are, first and foremost, and always, businessmen who seek to maximize their investment. That’s a fact of life.
This deal was driven by Mark Walter, Stan Kasten, and a cadre of lawyers and international marketing specialists. I wonder what impact it will have on Andrew Friedman’s relationship with the front office. Baseball has changed immensely and will continue to change. Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers have had the best record in baseball. They should have won two World Series but were cheated out of one. The playoffs have become a crapshoot as evidenced by what happened last season. I wonder how all of this will go down with Friedman?
What is Good for the Dodgers’ Owners, may not be good for Baseball. – According to Sportico, the average MLB team is worth $2.36 billion, according to data compiled by Sportico. The New York Yankees rank first at $7.13 billion, while the Miami Marlins rank last at $1.07 billion. The value of the Free Agents signed by the Dodgers this season could be larger than the entire valuation of the Marins, Rays, Royals, Pirates, Athletics, and Diamondbacks! For baseball to survive and even thrive internationally, it is going to take some type of salary cap. What that looks like, I cannot tell you. The Dodgers’ current valuation is $5.24 Billion. It will likely double in the next two or three years.
We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know. – We don’t know how healthy Ohtani will be. What if he never pitches again? That is a distinct possibility! What if he has chronic injuries? What if teammates are jealous of him? I simply cannot predict what will happen. Some of it could be quite good, and some could be predictably bad! There are more layers to this onion and we will peel them away as they become apparent.
Future Value
I recently started reading this book and am about halfway through it. At this juncture, I have to say that it is the most fascinating and informative book on baseball that I have ever read.
On Amazon, it describes the book like this:
An unprecedented look inside the world of baseball scouting and evaluation from Fangraphs’ lead prospect analysts
by Eric Longenhagen (Author), Kiley McDaniel (Author), Keith Law (Foreword)
For the modern major league team, player evaluation is a complex, multi-pronged, high-tech pursuit. But far from becoming obsolete in this environment—as Michael Lewis’ Moneyball once forecast—the role of the scout in today’s game has evolved and even expanded. Rather than being the antithesis of a data-driven approach, scouting now represents an essential analytical component in a team’s arsenal.
Future Value is a thorough dive into the world of the contemporary scout—a world with its own language, methods, metrics, and madness. From rural high schools to elite amateur showcases, from the back fields of spring training to major league draft rooms, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel break down the key systems and techniques used to assess talent. It’s a process that has moved beyond the quintessential stopwatches and radar guns to include statistical models, countless measurable indicators, and a broader international reach. Practical and probing, discussing wide-ranging topics from tool grades to front office politics, this is an illuminating exploration of how to watch baseball and see the future.
This book will forever change your ideas of how baseball works behind the scenes and what roles scouting and analytics play. Hint: You can’t do without either one, and arguing that one is better than the other is absurd!
You can find the book on Amazon or eBay. I very much recommend it to any baseball fan.
Discussion (31)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Hate it when I try to write so fast that I leave out the word “not.”
Just noticed that I did that in trying to argue why why the bidding war for Ohtani was NOT like the ones for Cole, Harper or any other free agent the Dodgers lost out on.
It is NOT a boring time to root for the Dodgers.
Walker Buhler had a toldja-so moment on the The Just Baseball Show on youtube:
“What did I tell you? $35 million pitcher, $35 million pitcher.”
I posted a link in my previous thread so it’s going to be put in jail.
https://youtu.be/i6lXHNLePjo?si=PEjB04bd5g73or4G
This guy certainly called it!
Good breakdown, too.
I am astonished by the deal. Whoever said we’re going all in had it right in spades! As a rooter for the ’47 Dodger underdogs, we have come the whole way and are now a Yankee clone! I don’t like being the richest franchise, but will always bleed Dodger blue. Looking forward to action on the needed pitching.
OK so the last two years we won 111-100 games. Lets see what the next two years bring.
Being reported that we’re trading the Yankees 2 guys off our 40-man roster for a prospect not on their 40-man.
One of them is supposedly an “end of roster” pitcher and the other is a prospect.
No names yet, pending physicals.
he’s a beast if healthy! miller,buehler, glasnow, pepiot, imangana? wow!
prominent Glasnow rumors starting!
More than anything I think something should be said for good reporting.
Ohtani (to LAD), Trea Turner (to PHL), Bauer (suspension length), Soto & Gerrit Cole (to NYY), Verlander (to NYM).
More times than not, the good MLB reporters know what they are talking about.
Now. JP Hoornstra?
Not so much.
Doesn’t have to make business sense to us. Not our money. As long as AF doesn’t stop here. And he won’t. Can’t wait to see who our starting aces are come April. Keep ‘em coming AF!
This was definitely an ownership decision. Friedman wouldn’t have signed an extension to be PBO if he hadn’t had a clear understanding of Ownerships interest in landing Ohtani. They’re one of the few ownership groupsnthat understands thatbwinning championships will make them the most money.
It’s silly complain about other people spend their money. Does it seem logical, ethical, moral? Some ways yes, some ways no. But we can be Dodger fans, or baseball fans without spending a dime, so it doesn’t hurt us. Going to games or getting TV broadcasts will be spendy, but what isn’t expensive lately? I can read all the boxscores just by having a device and the internet.
Baseball could be among America’s greatest inventions. How many other pro sports let a Dustin Pedroia hold his own against a CC Sabathia? Sure, the game is changing, but it’s hard to argue international growth is a bad thing. Shutting down minor league teams is a bad thing… this seems to reflect corporations building factories overseas to find cheap labor. International talen may be the best ROI for a time from scouting and devlopment. They’ll cap expenditures with an international draft eventually.
I doubt Guggenheim sells any time soon. They’re building a flock of golden geese to lay a horde of golden eggs. Why cash out when the annual gravy train is just getting started?
On the field, I bet they sign a starter and trade for one. Bullpen is solid. A righty outfielder would help too. They can gamble with giving Lux a chance at SS, and pivot at trade deadline. They won’t GUT the farm now, but something like Busch and Cartaya for Burnes will probably happen. They know they’ll still need cheap kids to provide depth.
One of kind deal, for a one of kind talent. Sure projections are pessimistic, they are by nature. But there is a chance Ohtani ages gracefully. I won’t worry about him itching too much in regular season. I’m hoping they keep enough leash on his arm to make sure he’s ready for October.
I’m hoping to god Buehler is back to his normal self, because there’s not enough money in the budget to sign 2 of Yamamoto, Sasaki, Imanaga. Heyward and Kelly already took up 17 million of this year’s budget and add whatever Ohtani is going to make this year. Will AF say F it and shatter that 100 million dollar budget? Or do people in the organization KNOW Buehler will be back to his normal self?
I said it yesterday and I will say it again, I am not going to judge this deal until I see who is in camp come February. I want to see what the finished product looks like. And the Dodgers are a product that is sold to the fans. Ohtani suggested the deferred money, which in my eyes makes him a team player. He wants to have the best players possible around him in the clubhouse. I would almost guarantee you that by spring training, Ohtani jerseys are going to be flying off of the shelves at the Dodger gift shop. The team will start making money immediately.
The Saudi PIF will prolly buy Dodgers inside next three years. The ROI on a major team in LA is growing by the minute.
M. bin Salman then takes the leap with his PIF dough and stands back as the media try to figure how to coexist with
another smiling dictator.
Jeannie Buss is all we have left from the ‘Family Business’ days. It’s inevitable and so “LA” that we’re going help bin Salman get his balls polished with Dodger Blue. Bet on it.
From MLBTR:
“…various outlets have reported that the Dodgers significantly outbid the competition to secure Ohtani’s services. J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation reports that the Dodgers upped their offer by as much as $100MM on the final day of negotiations.
I am sorry about Juniper’s and your family’s loss of Travis. I know that the majority of us on this site are way over 47-yrs old and all agree that this was way too young. Fortunately, while Juniper and her mom have a huge hole in their heart and soul they obviously have a great family support structure to help replace this void.
FanGraphs is a huge fan of Ohtani. Their model estimated that even if Ohtani pitches in 2025-2033, the baseball value of the contract is $300 million to $400 million. They project about 35 war over the contract.
The contract details are still not out on the deferrals and the AAV. So far Ohtani, his agent, and the fawning media are controlling the narrative. Reporters are telling us that it was simply Ohtani’s idea to defer salary to be generous and help out the Dodgers. Like Ohtani is also an expert adviser on the luxury tax in addition to a unicorn baseball player. And even though the Dodgers have built in deferrals to Betts and Freeman contracts, it was Ohtani’s idea here.
From a baseball standpoint, I do not like the transaction as reported. But this deal is about marketing, branding and franchise value. Ohtani already makes $40 million annually in off the field endorsements for himself, eight times more than any other MLB player. The Dodgers just want to maximize their share of the Ohtani brand.
I would have preferred to sign JDM or JT or Soler as a DH for $15 million instead of guarantee $700 million to Shohei. Ohtani had OPS of 848 in 2019 and 656 in 2020 when he was last recovering from TJ surgery and being a DH only. Some question whether he will be available as a DH to start the season in 2024.
But the Dodgers managed to win 100 games last year without Ohtani. And they have players like Buehler ($8 mill guaranteed), Smith($9 million guaranteed), Miller($800k guaranteed), Pepiot ($800k guaranteed), and Lux ($1.1 million guaranteed) that have been Dodgers and contributed to the franchise in the past who will be valuable contributors this year. Hopefully, the huge gap in their compensation and Ohtani’s does not create future unrest.
BJD,
Thank you. This is not my avocation… just a hobby!
Well that was a major news break!
I think we can all agree that on a per baseball level this deal does not make any sense, but multiple sources, people including Mark and others on this site have noted the non-baseball side on things.
If as I have read more than once that the Angels were probably making $10+ billion a year from Ohtani, then one can safely assume that the Dodgers will double that and least for the years Ohtani is productive (say 5-yrs) that would be $100M taken off the top of the contract. A writer on ESPN says with the deferred money the real contract is closer to $550M in today’s dollars, then you can postulate that the totals costs are now in the $450M range for 10-years. The deferment is huge for other signings.
Whether we all like the deal or not I think we can all agree that the team will be entertaining to watch next year.
I have no doubts we will see the Dodgers in play for the pitching everyone thinks they need, although I think they really only need one pitcher as I think Keyshawn will be back in the 2nd half and that Miller and Peipot are solid and some of the other younger arms will step-up.
I agree that baseball needs to have some sort of salary cap (min & max) for its long-term success. There is just no way the smaller markets can compete. That said, I have absolutely no clue how that will ever happen.
Also, I must admit I find Mark’s explanation about yesterday to be a bit shady and think he should have known that the Ohtani news was going to break yesterday – his punishment should be to continue this blog and thankfully have the thick skin to ignore the barbs thrown his way, I mean really ”family over the Dodgers” – what was he thinking!
Lastly – kudos to your wife’s great-niece on her achievement – I am sure that the whole family was beaming with her success.
Okay, interesting.
But I don’t think the goal is to sell the Dodgers to some international conglomerate or group of investors just to make a big pile of money. Some companies do that, but many stay the course, like Amazon and Jeff Bezos.
We do not know how the deal with Guggenheim works, but just a guess, it gets on-going checks from the Dodgers. As far as what Mark Walter has actually said about the Dodgers, he wants his family to continue to be involved with the organization in the future. All the people involved in the current ownership group are incredibly rich and no doubt love being part of the iconic Dodgers. Some have said as much.
The Dodgers are more than a business. Peter O’Malley made a mistake when he sold, thinking he had no choice, believing he couldn’t compete against corporations, most of which have disappeared from the baseball landscape.
Before we launch into this isn’t fair to the other smaller market teams. The Arizona Diamondbacks made it to the World Series, not the Dodgers or any of the other big spenders. The Texas Rangers won, not the Yankees or the Mets. Two of the lowest spending teams, Baltimore and Tampa Bay made the playoffs, spending money does not mean success. Look no further than the top spender, the Mets, to understand that.
As to a salary cap, the players union won’t agree to it so unless you want to truly bury the game with a long term strike, best to move on.
Yes, $700 million is crazy money. Not considering deferrals, that’s $70 million a year for one player, but hey Tom Cruise made a hundred million for one movie and Taylor Swift makes $10 to $13 million for each concert. That’s money she receives personally.
Baseball is entertainment, above all else. Now Shohei is the highest paid athlete in the world, surpassing a guy who kicks a ball.
Okay, I may have gone in a different direction or chose another path, focusing on other needs like pitching. But as I said yesterday, we don’t have the projections the Dodgers are using so maybe $700 million with all the deferred money works. They apparently have enough flexibility to add to the roster with pitching now becoming the focus.
Does that mean Yamamoto? Yes, according to some reports, it does. That doesn’t mean they will land him, but they are still in the mix. There are other options and I’m guessing they push hard in the trade market. But nothing will surprise me.
As for the financial end, the Dodgers will make considerable money from sponsorship, advertising and merchandising in this deal. The estimate is three times what the Angels were receiving, at least around $20 million per year for Anaheim. The Dodger sports channel used figures of between $72 and $92 million annually. If there is one thing the Dodger ownership is, it’s smart. They see what others don’t.
There is also a golden opportunity to develop Chavez Ravine as a Universal type entertainment center. The organization continues to make improvements to the stadium.
As to chess or checkers, maybe this is a win for baseball, the Dodgers and LA. And yes, a win for Shohei Ohtani and his agency. Winners all around.
I will definitely get the book, Mark. But from Barnes and Noble, not Amazon. Not a fan of Bezos.
“From a baseball standpoint, this deal is flat-out felony stupid!”
Simply put, I think you’re flat-out wrong.
“Ohtani along with his immense talent, will attract free agents and others who will want to play for the Dodgers.”
I agree. Ohtani has been the best player in baseball the last three years. I can see a lot of players wanting in on this.
I will read that book and am already sure it has plenty in it that will not surprise me. Baseball has been racing in this direction since Bill James first wrote about it.
America’s Game. Why wouldn’t it be about entertainment and money? Are we not entertained?
I am content to let history be the judge.
The deal makes no sense to some, and complete sense to others. What I do know about the Los Angeles Dodgers is:
1. They are second most followed MLB team right behind the NY Yankees and the biggest in Asia.
2. They play in the second largest media market in the US.
3. The franchise (along with SF Giants) opened a new western frontier in the US for MLB
4. The team that brought us Jackie Robinson.
5. The team that had the best all-time broadcaster in Vin Scully.
6. The team that hasn’t had a gazillion uniform changes. Bright whites with a red number on front….iconic!
7. A team that owns the Japan market. Ask any Japanese person in Japan what city they would like to visit in the US and it is overwhelmingly “Hollywood.”
8. A team with one of the greatest baseball stadiums of all-time.
9. A team with a rich tradition of tapping into the Nippon Professional Baseball for talent. Nomo, Saito, Kuroda, Maeda to name a few.
10. A team that has won 7 WS championships, 24 NL Pennants, 21 NL West titles.
11. An organization that created “Fernandomania” along with Fernando himself.
12. A team that brought us arguably the greatest LH pitcher of all-time in Koufax.
13. First MLB team to open an office in Asia.
14. Leads MLB with no-hitters.
15. Leads MLB with Cy Young Award winners.
16. Most rookie of the year award winners.
In a city that has had Wilt, Kareem. Magic, Shaq, Kobe, West, Baylor, Koufax, Drysdale, Lasorda, LeBron, Scully etc. The Dodgers had to get Ohtani. He makes the team immensely better, the offensive line-up longer and he will return to pitch in 2025. His contract is “bat shit” crazy but he now becomes the face of the Dodgers whether he wants it or naught.
We’ll never know how much the Dodgers overpaid; certainly we will read stories that state the Dodgers were bidding against themselves. I don’t care…..and I won’t apologize for my Dodger exceptionalism. We are the freaking Los Angeles Dodgers!
I find it so odd that you proclaim the signing was solely because of ownership, lawyers and marketing specialists and was not approved by AF . You have no way of knowing that even throwing a grenade that the signing may impact the relationship between AF and ownership and was not a baseball move but purely a business move. Perhaps it was both. Acquiring the best player in baseball, who easily could have had three MVP’s if not for the tremendous year by Aaron Judge, into a line-up with Mookie, Freeman, Muncy and Smith makes the Dodgers a better baseball team. For Ohtani to defer money allowing the Dodgers to still be active in the FA market is genius. If it grows the brand, results in another ten year string of post season appearances and WS championships and at the same time makes the Guggenehim shareholders more money……good on them and us.
I submit the Dodgers ownership group want to win the business side and the playing side and to do that they need Ohtani. AF was fully on-board with this decision and to suggest otherwise at this juncture is what a moron would say.
Use any of the often read euphemisms we see at LADT like “5 out of 4 Dodger fans approve this move, Ray Charles can see that, Guggeneim was playing chess while other owners were playing checkers,” but I love the signing.
For the life of me I don’t understand why people make up things like this wasn’t a deal done by Friedman, and then try to pass that silliness off as fait accompli.
That Longenhagen is excellent at any type of baseball content, from short to long.
Wonder how JDM is feeling today?
Well now that we got to sleep on it, what do I know I am just an average Joe who only contributes to the check fund that pay’s these salaries. Neither you nor I have any input so just have to go with it.
I love it that my friends were texting me and giving me shit about the signing. Some are not even fans I found that even more hilarious.
I think this was a decision that came from the ownership group mostly but you would be remiss to think Andrew Friedman wasn’t on board with this.
Let’s hope they go all in and finally make the saying come true.
“Let’s be pigs”.
Go sign Yamomota, and or Imanga, Lee and become the biggest international franchise in baseball.
But what do I know I just contribute to the bank account.
Hopefully the Rams can win in Baltimore today.
I love the deal from a pure business standpoint and baseball standpoint. Mark Walter is a genius in this matter along with all the other owners on the Dodgers. Ohtani along with his immense talent,i will attract free agents and others who will want to play for the Dodgers. MLB owners will now have to open their wallets wider to attract quality free agents, Bryrce Harper already wants to renegotiate his contract with the Phillies.If owners are not committed to winning, sell your franchise to someone is. We are lucky that we have owners who are committed to win and back it with their wallets. Great to be a Dodger fan. Cheers!!
for everyone who thinks the dodgers are extremely stupid for signing ohthani, you’re right! BUT, the cubs,giants,blue jays, braves would absolutely have done the same. AND, the yankees and mets would have also signed him ! he didn’t want either of the new york teams. i also don’t believe Soto will get any where close to what ohthani got. he’s a hitter and not much else! there are no world series guarantees with this signing. the outfield is not elite. lux is a question defensively. max could go backwards. if smith needs more time on the bench, Barnes is not the answer . i know the pitchers love him , but he’s a 180 hitter ! i believe AF will trade for a starting pitcher and sign one. i’m not being a wet blanket. i do think the dodgers go into next season as favorites in the West. but the Braves, Phillies, D-backs, Cubs(yes cubs) will have a say in the national league. i’m not going to pretend i jumped for joy when the signing was announced, i didn’t. i’m not disappointed either . do i like the contract? hell no! but like i said earlier, 6-7 teams would have signed him if he chose them. remember angels had Trout along with ohtani, and what did they win? now the dodgers are a tad bit stronger through out their entire lineup, but it doesn’t mean squat if they can’t get past round 1 in the playoffs!
They don’t know you Mark – lots of embarrassing comments yesterday by the Keyboard Warriors, but I know you don’t give a toss anyway.
Still in shock. Really don’t know what to think tbh.
Made the daily news here in London
Read the book … your spot on with the summary of it
MLB will expand beyond the USA and Canada over the coming years. Guggenheim recognizes this change and is reacting to it (maybe say even directing it) with the signing of Ohtani. We will see over the coming years if Guggenheim is playing chess and the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox, are playing checkers.
On a more specific note, I am in South Florida and the Marlins are desperate for catching help. Maybe a catcher and some other pieces for Jesus Luzardo, a LH starter ?