For about a year, I have been predicting that Shohei Ohtani will not be a Dodger. Until proven wrong, I stand by that… STILL! On November 11th, I wrote this:
“Everyone seems to revere Ohtani as “God-like,” and while he is an amazing talent, I think any team that is determined to sign him is going to regret it very much. I believe you are going to see him start to break down at much more regular intervals. Yes, he is a freak! But he is human, and as we age, injuries are part of the process. Our bodies do not recover as quickly. Ohtani credits sleep with being a recovery mechanism, and he sleeps up to 12 hours a night! He considers sleep as a “recovery” method… and he is right! Sleep is a recovery method that works. I have successfully used it to recover quickly from back surgery and cardioversion, which successfully eliminated A-Fib. I know that it works, but it still will not make Ohtani Superman.
—Mark Timmons
OK, I am going to say something, and here it is: Andrew Friedman will not give Ohtani a contract that hamstrings the Dodgers! Now, what that means exactly, I do not know. But here is what I do know: The Investment Group that bought the Dodgers paid the most ever as a group for the team (over $2 Billion Dollars), and while it is appreciating in value, investorswant, no… demand, an annual return on their capital, and the Dodgers deliver that! I think that anytime the Dodgers sign a player, they have to ask, “What is the worst-case scenario if we sign this player?”
What is the worst-case scenario with Shohei? OK, (1) He never recovers enough to be a successful pitcher again (OK, you could live with that); (2) He frequently is injured and maybe only averages 110 games a year; and (3) his power production goes down. If he was making $300 Million over ten years, you might be able to live with that, but you can’t pick and choose when injuries occur. However, if he commands $400 to $500 Million over 10 to 12 years, that is a contract that will hamstring the Dodgers.
See, what Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers are doing is different than any other team in baseball: They want to be relevant and contend every year… and they have done that for the past ten years, and there is no end in sight to that dominant streak. No other team in baseball does that. The fact that they have won only one World Series and were cheated out of another one in that run is not lost on intelligent fans. The morons don’t get it. I am not going to get into that aspect right now, as you can’t tell really stupid people anything! However, I am good with that. I would rather enjoy a winning team, year after year, than win a World Series and then tank for five years! You may feel differently… and that is your prerogative! With the way the playoffs have changed, it is a crapshoot to a large degree, and if you can’t understand that… especially after this season, the lights are on, but nobody is home.
So, unless Andrew Friedman comes up with some very creative way of mitigating risk while signing Ohtani, I do not think it is prudent for the Dodgers to do so, and even if the Dodgers do sign him, I will still abide by that. I do not think it is wise.“
There has been lots of disinformation on where Ohtani is going to land, and one website even proclaimed yesterday: “Shohei Ohtani to Sign with Toronto Blue Jays over Los Angeles Dodgers: Sources“. As of this minute, that is fake news. People are so eager to break a story that they have to make stuff up. I gained a lot of respect for Dave Roberts, who, earlier this week, did not play the Ohtani silent game and acknowledged that the Dodgers had met with Ohtani. Brandon Gomes and Andrew Friedman still play the role of Ohtani’s Little Bitches. I have lost some respect for them, but Andrew Friedman could step up as a man and regain that respect by saying, “Shohei, since you can’t make the decision, I will make it for you. Let me introduce our new DH – JD Martinez. Have a nice life!”
There is no Shohei in team! Move on from him now, Andrew! Let’s get on with the offseason deals.
Discussion (76)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Troll much?
First, when Timmons takes a crap, more knowledge of Dodger baseball is flushed than most of us will ever know.
Worried about being very left handed dominate when it comes to the Dodgers line up. I know the splits on several players isn’t good.
Can someone give us the splits between right handed pitching vs. left handed pitching. Thank you
I’m shocked at the number. But the devil is in the details. I will withhold my opinion until the full details of the contract are released.
I will say this. I’ve given up explaining to people the concept of “time value of money”. The Bobby Bonilla contract wasn’t stupid. Or was the contract the Reds gave to Griffey Jr. Money tomorrow is worth less than money today. Money you defer can be invested and earns a return. And even if you offer interest on that deferred money the party offering the deferment can still end up significantly ahead. It’s the magic of compound interest. Bobby Bonilla would have been much better off taking the money upfront, and investing it. The Mets were smart in structuring the contract in that way. Regardless what Met fans complain about every year.
We will see what this contract really looks likes. It likely won’t be public until after Ohtani’s physical and press conference.
I’m happy he’s a Dodger. I reserve judgment in if this is or isn’t a good contract until I see the details.
Man, some of you need to be patient. Dodger decision on how to pursue two starting pitchers was dependent on the Ohtani signing. The two starters will be pitchers that don’t cost draft compensation (like Imanoga, Giolito) or pitchers acquired in a trade (like Cease or Glasnow).
The decision to sign Ohtani is great news for Dodgers on the field. Of course there is risk. And it is a lot of money. But it is not my money and there were many teams willing to shell out similar money for his performance on the field and the marketing impact off the field. A line up fronted by Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani and backed up by Will Smith, Max Muncy is a great start. Dodgers have been signaling this move in this off season for a while now and to their credit they pulled it off. No doubt they have a sequence of moves mapped out to fill out their roster and they will hope to execute that plan in the coming weeks. Interested to see how it all shakes out.
Mark’s probably working on an Ohtani writing for tomorrow. For those who’s asked where he’s at.
I never wanted Kershaw back before but now I think I do. #3 starter, Clayton Kershaw!
I’m still incredibly bullish on Pepiot, Sheehan & Stone. Miller is de facto #1 and Buehler is #2 if healthy. Need that #3 in the rotation. We’ll probably buy one.
Imanaga is my pick. Stroman might be my next one, followed by Giolito.
Get your own blog, chico.
Mark is a baller.
Earvin Magic Johnson
@MagicJohnson
A big big congratulations and job well done to my partner and Dodgers majority owner Mark Walter, Stan Kasten, Andrew Friedman, and the rest of the Dodgers organization for signing Shohei Ohtani!
@Dodgers
If it’s safe to say Ohtani got a deal similar to Bobby Bonilla Asking for a friend
I’m a bit confused here…..I’m not sure why some of you think Ohtani is the missing link for us winning championship after championship for the next 5 years?
Doesn’t pitching win in the playoffs? Last time I checked, Ohtani won’t be pitching in 2024 and maybe beyond.
So, do you really think he can make that much of a difference with his bat? May I remind you what we all saw our two superstars did in the playoffs this past year….nothing….absolutely nothing. Still think the great Oh can make THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE all by himself?
If you say, “yes” I respect that….you want to believe…..so do I….but apart from Jesus, it’s not easy for me to believe that one man who is not a pitcher can make that much of a change IN THE PLAYOFFS.
Thanks for listening and it’s okay if you don’t agree with me. I admit, I don’t follow baseball like most of you guys….but I do have a sound mind and a lot of common sense.
Cheers,
TM
Curtis Flood must be smiling ear to ear !!!
Some here thought AF was playing chess, but he was really playing monopoly
Give credit when credit is due: great job Friedman and Gomes and the entire Dodgers organization, thank you for going all in to get a championship back to our beloved Dodgers!!!
What’s Soto going to be asking for in 2025?
Earvin Magic Johnson
@MagicJohnson
A big thank you to Shohei for deciding to wear Dodger blue! I know all Dodger fans around the world are extremely happy and excited that you decided to join our organization and we welcome you to Dodger nation!
@Dodgers
This might help in understanding the deferrals in Ohtani’s contract and the CBT implications.
https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1733617544471216149?s=20
Dodgers upcoming marketing campaign slogan:
OHTANIMANIA coming to a stadium near you!
700mil
And here I thought the Dodgers needed A few fighters .
Now lets trade for Burnes and Adames and get to 40!
Now that is the definition of an offer you cannot refuse! About time! Lets go Dodgers!!
I am so bummed that I can’t find the wonderful LA Times piece on Ohtani when he was new on the Angels. I can’t wait for all the coverage he will be enduring. Kershaw will have lots to share with him, as he is snake-bit in the off season & incurs the wrath from bleeders of blue. Let’s hope Shohei & Clayton become dynasty builders. RIP Donnie Moore.
I wonder if the Ohtani signing is a plus or minus for signing Yamamoto? I’m guessing Yamamoto doesn’t want to play 2nd fiddle.
Still find the numbers to be dumb but he’s here now and three MVPs at the top of the is going to be fun.
The second half of that contract is gonna painful, but not my money!!!
Looking forward to seeing what that lineup looks like. Potent!
The Dodgers brand just took a huge boost in Japan.
Go Dodgers!
Never in doubt
way to go bluto! always someone bringing everyone else down!
What I really can’t believe is that Ohtani came to the Dodgers after that pride day so event with the sisters of intolerance.!
I’ve been saying all along that I thought it would be a bad move for the Dodgers to give a deal like this to Ohtani. I don’t know why they didn’t listen to me. 🙂 I’ve been a Dodgers fan for over 70 yrs. I hope I’m around long enough to see him prove that he was worth it.
Go-o-o-o-o Dodgers!
FINALLY!! Hard to process at the moment but needless to say, a historic moment in sport’s history!! I’m with Bear on this….. let the dust settle and let’s see who all shows up at Camelback in February. Congrats to those on the site who were pro Ohtani signing (especially Andrew Vincent Forte) and to Mark and those against the signing…… try to enjoy this historic moment today and let’s see what else AF & Co do up until ST. Love this site and all the passion expressed but if I may offer just one suggestion….. Bluto, you really need to get laid, brah!!!!
Well the Dodgers had the choice of going big or going home. They went big, really big. Based on what we think we know at this point, the Dodgers cut a deal that apparently defers quite a bit of money, Ohtani’s idea, so that explains how the Dodgers move forward and be able to add veteran pitchers for 2024.
Signing with LA is good for baseball. Major market, chance to win it all and it will definitely excite the fan base.
Will the Dodgers pursue Yamamoto? It has been reported the Dodgers really like 22 year Roki Sasaki. He has asked to be posted. There was a report he has a clause in his contract allowing him to get posted. If that’s true, the Dodgers would probably be all over it.
Beyond that, expect the Dodgers to push hard in the trade market.
https://x.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1733608008251326528?s=20
It’s an absurd, irresponsible, dope fiend signing … but who cares? It’s a good pivot away from meticulously building a value based, deep and resilient regular season team just to have them lose out to the vagaries of the playoffs.
Now, instead of looking at the regular season as a means to an end – getting to the playoffs with home field advantage (which doesn’t help), only to see them get bounced and feel like that 162 game season was a waste – now I can just watch the best baseball player on Planet Earth play for the team I love for 162 games. It’s entertainment. I’ll take it.
Bummer. I guess that means the Dodgers aren’t going to sign Jordan Montgomery and his 4.00 ERA. Oh well.
What did Guggenheim see in the doctor report That made this decision to sign Ohtani
it’s a lot of money! but, he’s not Assrod. he’s not Big head Bonds. he’s not Sosa. he’s not Tatis, Machado, or any of those guys. he is one hell of a hitter, and pitcher if he is all the way back in 25! and comparing him to Soto. he would probably be a better outfielder than soto. and better baserunner. now if he never pitches again he will always be considered somewhat of a bust. once baseball starts , most dodger fans will forget about the contract unless he hits .225 with 13 homers. now waiting on the yankees to start crying about we are the evil empire. that’s because ohthani didn’t want to play for them. hey , my 10 year old grandson is over run with joy!! and for me , that makes it worth it!
I love the people being upset at this move.
As I said well before this move, lots of dingbats.
guess LeBron will sign with the dodgers now. he won’t have to travel to far with his talents!
The Angels have the toughest pill to swallow in seeing Ohtani not just leave, but head across town to the other Los Angeles team. Because the Halos were just barely able to maneuver themselves under the luxury tax threshold, the Angels will maximize their compensatory return for Ohtani, who naturally rejected a qualifying offer. Anaheim will now get a compensatory pick after the second round of the 2024 draft, which is admittedly small consolation for losing one of the singular talents that the game has ever seen. There hasn’t been any sense what the Angels are planning to rebuild or take a step back now that Ohtani is gone, as the team has reportedly still been trying to add top-end talent to finally get back into contention.
Ohtani for $700 million seems crazy. But I will wait to see the contact details. The Dodgers probably recoup a lot of that money through prearranged streaming, deferrals, or other revenues. I think this contract will likely have negative ramifications for the Dodgers and the MLB long term. As Steve Phillips just said, even with Ohtani, the Dodgers are not a playoff team right now with their pitching staff. In my view, the Dodgers are creating problems with all of their other players who see so much money going to one guy who is a DH and injured. I wouldn’t be surprised if in 2024 Ohtani underperforms what the Dodgers got from JDM at DH for $10 million last year. But then again, in six years in the MLB, Ohtani has never made an out in the postseason yet!
Wowwwwww. Just Wowwwwww.
10 years for 700 million. That is at least 100 million more than the wildest speculation were going.Dodgers must be very hopeful the man will pitch well in 2025
Still need two starting pitchers for 2024, one of them a top of the rotation guy.
Still a great day to be a Dodgers fan.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Paraphrasing Mark……while the rest of baseball is playing checkers….the Guggenheim Dodgers are playing chess!
But as a fan I love it! If we can pick up a couple of top starters this year. Dodgers must believe in young pitching prospects to keep payroll down next 6-7 years. Will AF blow us away again with 300 mil for Yamamoto?
I had a funny feeling when I read the Blue Jays were the favorite to get him but he was waiting on his favorite team to make a better offer. That smelled like AF trying to get away with a lower offer (that’s a good thing) knowing Ohtani’s favorite team is the Dodgers.
Why the hate for Mark?
This was NOT AF’s decision. This was ownership’s final decision.
Ohtani is dodger
Hoonstra and Morosi left holding the bag. We’ll get stories in the coming days that Ohtani committed to the Blue Jays and Hoonstra had multiple sources supporting his premature story only to realize the Dodgers made an 11th hour offer thereby allowing him to save face.
It’s crazy money and may not make sense but it makes us an immensely better team. Betts, Ohtani, Freeman and Smith. Good luck getting through that offensive line-up.
Now comes the MiLb talent moved to acquire pitching or what the hell just go get Yamamoto.
They can’t defer the luxury tax hit the contract counts as 70 million a year towards the tax. All deferring does is decrease the actual yearly cost but it does nothing to reduce the luxury tax. Betts and Freeman both have deferred payments but it doesn’t reduce their luxury tax number. If it did all contracts would have half the amount deferred. My opinion is this is a dumb contract unless the Dodgers have some sort of out clause.
The real question now is what is his dogs name?
Finally! Huge victory!! Lets Go Dodgers!!!
What you are missing is the deferred money. Read everything before you post.
Shohei Ohtani asked to defer a lot of this cash to help us sign more people. That’s the type of guy he is, despite the nonsense some people said about him the past week.
To all those who didn’t want him, I have 29 other organizations’ phone numbers and am happy to make an introduction.
To those who do want him, LFG!
According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link), “most of” Ohtani’s salary will be deferred, as suggested by Ohtani himself. The intent is so that the Dodgers can continue to spend and add talent while somewhat lowering the luxury tax hit. Regardless of how the $700MM is eventually parceled out over the coming years or decades, Ohtani will be bringing in the single largest contract ever given to a professional athlete, topping the $674MM deal that soccer legend Lionel Messi signed with FC Barcelona for the 2017-21 La Liga seasons.
There better be an out-clause for the Dodgers somewhere in the middle of this deal!
Yessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!!! it’s not my money. I told you he was coming!!!! Mark you were wrong on this one. This was all ownership.
R U KIDDING ME!!!!!! That’s INSANE! All time DOPE FIEND MOVE! No way this works out! What can possibly be left to sign starting pitching?
700 M for 10 years. Stupid
Shohei is a Dodger! Posted on his Instagram page
There might be another Japanese pitcher to be posted, Roku Sasaki of the ChibaLotte Marines. In 2022 he pitched a 19 strikeout perfect game. At 22 years old he would be of interest to many teams. He has asked to be posted but it is unclear if his team will oblige. Note; Ohtani had the option to leave for the majors whenever he wanted included in his contract with Nippon Ham. Sasaki is thought to also have that clause in his deal with Chiba Lotte.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to be one of his top suitors whenever he is posted. Top executive Andrew Friedman was in attendance for Sasaki’s bullpen sessions leading up to the most recent World Baseball Classic.
LOL! Yes, this is full on sarcasm and a bit of shade throwing, and maybe a little unfair to what may be a decent, under-the-radar signing, but it’s so well crafted it’s actually pretty hysterical. Well done! This is the kind of snark this place needs, not the snide preening of Bluto’s effort a couple of posts down.
Blind Joe
Didn’t you say the same thing about Ryan Brasier
Lots of dingbats posting this morning.
I like Crismatt as a signing. Good change, can be the long-arm in the pen.
Good price.
What’s not to like taking a flier on him?
For a good laugh-Joe Kelly’s wife…looks like she and Mariachi Joe are a perfect match
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0mrjSjvKHM/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Morning guys. At this point I do not care where he signs, just get the circus over with.
I have said it a couple times so this is the last time- Please let Ohtani go to Toronto. People keep saying he will generate enough money to cover his costs. Maybe but all that money generated only covers his cost and doesn’t have much impact on baseball. I think most are looking at the advertising/PR impact and not improving the team. He is a DH and as someone else said “How many more homers and RBI’s will he provide versus JD (and at only $480 million more per year)? If there is any possibility signing Ohtani takes anything away from efforts to sign pitchers, then our management is more interested in PR than baseball. He will be a distraction, take focus off the team and be a roadblock to future efforts to improve the team. On top of all that his special rules and need to be secretive, with warnings for those that cross him, gets really old. He is going to be a headache.
I’m reading rumors of a lot of teams interested in Yamamoto and that’s no surprise. He’s my favorite free agent.
I’m also reading rumors of some teams interested in Imanaga and Lee. My 2nd and 3rd favorite free agents.
Also rumors of the D-backs considering Justin Turner, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins. Any of those 3 I’d like the Dodgers to have DHing. Justin Turner the least of the 3. And yeah, I’m a no on Ohtani.
When I hear these rumors, I get anxious about AF signing them before other teams beat him to it.
It is interesting to think about what else we could buy for $600m.
2022 Total luxury tax penalties (the 2023 Total is not yet in)
Dodgers: $32,397,344
Mets: $30,773,938
Yankees: $9,681,093
Phillies: $2,882,657
Padres: $1,524,638
Red Sox: $1,229,936
TOTAL: $78,489,606
FACT: No MLB Team has spent more money on payroll than the Dodgers since Friedman has taken over.
FACT: No MLB team spends more on player development than the Dodgers, except possibly the Yankees.
To say that Friedman tries to go cheap is a flat-out fiction!
Evidently, AF just wins 100 games every year with smoke and mirrors?
I think the Dodgers will be better off spending that money on more players… not just one.
I get the marketing aspect of signing Ohtani, but I’d rather have two $30MM players than one $60MM player. Actually, the Dodgers could probably sign three very good players for what Ohtani costs.
Here’s a list of last year’s payrolls:
1. N.Y. Mets, $353,546,854
2. N.Y. Yankees, $276,999,872
3. San Diego, $248,995,932
4. Philadelphia, $243,009,439
5. L.A. Dodgers, $222,717,834
6. L.A. Angels, $212,228,096
Anyone who thinks spending the most money will equal a Championship is a World Class Moron!
AF was sighted this morning at the the Dollar General shopping for players. Will he ruin our Holidays and come up with bargain basement players or will he surprise us with big ticket quality players? Spend the 100 million in the budget and give us a chance to win a World Series in 2024.
I’ve been looking in on this blog for a long time now and decided it’s time to chime in with my “opinion” on this:
To me Mark has nailed this all along. Ohtani is like the shiny new object when you’re a two year old. Why all the uproar over this guy? He’s a DH that doesn’t play the field, can’t pitch for at least a year and may not be the same when he does. His 6 season career stats are .274 avg, .922 OPS, one 100 RBI season, two 100 run seasons. His pitching record is 38-19, 3.01 ERA and requires a six man rotation! What is so 600 million dollar special about that? What are his defensive metrics? Oh, he doesn’t have any! How good is he going to be in 5 or 6 years from now when the team is shelling out 60 million a season for a DH on the decline? Instead of fans buying his jersey they’ll be burning it. Whoever loses out on this guy should be thankful. By the way, the new rumor is that he’s holding out for a better offer from the team he really wants to play for. AF anyone? Okay, I don’t take criticism well, but I’m ready!
And hello from Co. Springs to my neighbor Bear in Canon City.
sometimes the best deals are the ones that you don’t make, or the ones that the players won’t let you make! Rendon, Nola, Stanton, even Bryce Harper. dodger fans are spoiled to an extent. winning will do that. i love winning the division every year . i also hate losing in the first round too! i realize it’s hard to argue with AF and sometimes criticize hm too. i’m not a fan of platoons! yes i know it’s been a winning formula. but as reported on mlb network, that’s a reason the giants have had a hard time recruiting stars to san francisco . but as long as Friedman is there i guess i’ll live with it. would love a big right handed hitter to man left field daily! Robert in center and a platoon in right! maybe santa clause will deliver. pay attention to the d-backs! not saying they will be better than dodgers, but pay attention! everyone having fun? lol
All good points, Mark.
But this may be driven by ownership, not the front office. When the new owners paid over $2 billion to acquire the Dodgers, it was well beyond the value of the organization. This can’t be based on baseball. There has to be something more.
There was “more”, there was a massive TV deal that would generate far more dollars than the two billion dollar purchase price and other revenue streams. The new owners knew something that no one else did. No one was projecting a deal of that magnitude.
As we look at Ohtani, we know that he generates new revenue streams for an organization. The Angels said that trading Ohtani in August would cost the club around $20 million.
Most of those dollars come from sponsorships, advertising and merchandise, not ticket and hot dog sales .
So when we try to determine how the team can afford a massive contract like this we would need to know the projections the Dodgers are using. So how would that work in Toronto? Apparently, pretty well since the Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communication, well positioned to take advantage.
I still believe it’s too much money and it might be better to pursue pitching and fill some other holes.
So here are the questions that need to be asked if the Dodgers do indeed land Shohei.
Does this mean the Dodgers are no longer concerned about the luxury tax and all the penalties that are attached with going over it.
Can the Dodgers stay under the tax next season and in future years? What does that look like?
How will this impact future decisions, adding other players or signing players to future contracts. Will this signing become a boat anchor as the Dodgers move forward. What about financial flexibility? Is that no longer important.
Does this signing remove the Dodgers from pursuit of Yamamoto or other costly free agent pitchers?
You said in an earlier press conference the Dodgers needed to acquire established starting pitching through potential trades or the free agent market. Is that still the goal? Can the Dodgers still add that kind of talent and afford substantial contracts? Or does it mean the Dodgers will have to rely more on young starting pitching.
Do you expect Ohtani to resume pitching at a high level in 2025?
Do your believe that Ohtani is a difference maker when it comes to the playoffs? In your opinion is he the best hitter in baseball?
There could be more, obviously. But those questions need to be answered to give some clarity regarding the Dodgers future.
Breaking news; Ohtani is still undecided.
The Dodgers should not lose out to the BluevJays. The organization has been planning to sign him for two years and they are going to allow the Blue Jays to best them?! Cole, Harper, Nola, Ohtani, that is a bad trend. Now they must get busy and act like a legitimate big time organization and sign two aces and a shortstop and a third baseman. The Dodgers should never lose to the Blue Jays!!!
everyone in sports media wants to be the first to report the big news! can’t hardly blame them. i just wish it would break and be done! ENOUGH!!! in a perfect w all teams would boycott his ass and he would go back to Japan! sure he’s a heavenly talent. but right now he’s a DH ! There’s no guarantee Walker B is ever gonna be the same pitcher he was, so how do we know ohthani is? a 5 year contract with incentives is all he deserves! if he pitches in 2025 bump him on up . if not you have the highest paid DH in history. would he look good in dodger lineup? absolutely! but so would 3 very good players too. Roberts and Cease can be had! Imangana can be had. Seth Lugo can be had. getter done!
There is a car similar to the one Ohtani drives, reported traveling south on the 405 towards San Diego. Oh my gosh, Ohtani is signing with the Padres! Someone inform MoroNsi so he can tweet it out!