Sometimes when certain voices are elevated, they have the power to do a lot of damage. We see this in a lot of “news” articles these days and we certainly see this during election season with all of the attack ads from politicians on both sides of the aisle. In an effort to keep this a-political, I’m not going to go into any specifics when it comes to politics. Instead, I’ll just focus on Gavin Lux and the Dodgers.
I don’t know how it happened, but it sure does seem that young Gavin takes a lot of slack, especially on this site. But, how did were get here? I think it started with the very high expectations that were put on young Gavin to begin with. He was supposed to be the next great position player prospect for the Dodgers after several came before him in recent years. Everyone seems to expect every prospect to produce like Corey and Cody out of the gate and when a young player faces adversity, many are quick to label them.
Corey Seager was king of all Dodgers position player prospects during our current run of success and deservedly so. He wasn’t touted as a great fielding shortstop, but he was compared to the great Cal Ripkin before he became a staple at the SS position. Corey’s tall and has long arms and can make up for his lack of quickness with a strong arm, long body and smart positioning, a lot like Cal did to excel at the position for the length of his career. Still, many came up with the narrative that Corey would ultimately shift to 3rd base. Next year, Cody will be playing in his age 29 season and his 8th at shortstop. So, much for the narrative.
In the minor leagues, Corey was a beast. As a 20-year-old in 2014 he split time between A+ and AA and mashed to the tune of .349/.402/.602/1.004 with 50 doubles and 20 homers. This was by far his best minor league season and it was assumed at the time, that he would add more power as he matured and was on the road to becoming a great all-around hitter with above-average power and enough glove to stick at the position, at least for the short term.
Cody Bellinger didn’t have quite the lofty ranking as the number 1 prospect in baseball like his teammate Corey Seager, but he did get as high as 13th overall on MLB’s 2017 top prospect list. Not bad for a guy that was generally considered to have arrived a year early. In 2016 he spent the majority of the year at AA and delivered a .263/.359/.484/.843 slash line with 21 doubles and 23 homers as a 20 year old. He was considered a future Gold Glove candidate at 1st base, but did play a considerable amount of time in the outfield during his minor league career.
Judging by the numbers, it seems Cody was destined to spend another year in the minors before replacing Adrian Gonzales. But, Adrian got injured, and Belli had a hot start to AAA. Then just 18 games into the minor league season he was promoted to the majors and the rest is history. The 39 bombs he crushed in his first season in the majors earned him ROY honors. He was also one of the youngest players ever to reach 100 homers.
The Dodgers have had a few prospects since Cody and Cory to make top 100 lists. Verdugo, May, Ruiz, Downs, Gray, Miller, Vargas, Busch, Pages, Pepiot and Stone have all checked in. Only Lux and Cartaya have cracked the top 10 with Cartaya coming in at 8th overall this past season and Lux at No. 2 overall in 2020, just missing the No. 1 overall mark behind Wander Franco.
Lux had just completed a minor league season for the ages in 2019 where he slashed a ridiculous .392/.478/.719/1.197 in 49 AAA games after earning a promotion after a solid .313/.375/.521/.896 at Tulsa as a 21 year old. In total, he had 159 hits in just 458 AB’s with 25 Doubles and 26 HR and he looked very much like the next star player to be produced by the Dodgers. His 2019 callup was unspectacular and the Covid year that followed didn’t help his development either. It wasn’t until this past season that we saw a glimpse of what Lux is capable of, until ultimately being derailed by a neck injury. At the end of August, he was hitting .293/.370/.430/.800. But, in September and October he was injured, played in just 15 games and slashed a dismal .161/.175/.196/.372 the rest of the way.
Lux will be 25 this upcoming season and could be on the verge of a serious breakout. When he was in the minors his teammate, Kyle Garlick said Lux would be a perennial All-Star and possibly a Hall of Famer. But, the narrative is that he doesn’t have the power that produced 26 homers in just 113 minor league games as a 21 year old in AAA/AA and that he has the dreaded “Yips”, that will keep him from being a shortstop, or possibly even a second baseman.
The Yips
Although Gavin himself has admitted to having the yips in the past, I think it’s greatly exaggerated to think it’s a problem now, or going forward. The most famous cases of the yips in the past have been Mackey Sasser, the catcher that couldn’t throw back to the pitcher, Rick Ankiel, the pitcher turned outfielder, and a couple of All-Star second basemen, Steve Sax and Chuck Knoblauch. The one thing in common with all four of these players is they overcame their cases of yips to varying degrees. Sasser did so after his playing career was over and is currently advising young players on how to overcome the phenomenon. Ankiel was a generational left-handed pitching prospect that moved to the outfield after unsuccessfully attempting to fix his pitching problems in the minors.
Knoblauch fixed his case of the yips by moving into the outfield after committing 26 errors at second base in 1316 innings in 1999 and following that up with 15 errors in just 666 innings the following year. He never returned to the infield after those two seasons, but did continue on in the outfield for a few more seasons.
Steve Sax, like Gavin showed his yips early in his career, with 30 errors in 1336 innings in 1983 as a 23-year-old while ironically earning an All-Star at the position. His error totals were in the low 20’s for the next two seasons until he settled in with 16 as a 26-year-old in 86 and not surpassing the 20-error mark again until he was 32 years old.
Lux definitely had issues in the minors. In the majors, he mostly kept his throwing problems under control, especially this past season while settling in at just 9 errors in 800+ innings. Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess, but if you use Steve Sax as an example, there’s certainly enough hope that he might have already put it behind him.
Going Forward
As I look back on Lux’s career so far, I can’t help but think he’s had way more than his fair share of adversity. From learning second base on the job during his first call-up, dealing with some yips in his new position, the Covid year featuring his hometown being the epicenter for violent unrest and arson during the Spring and Summer of protests. As a result, I have way more sympathy with Lux’s struggles than with other young players that have had struggles adjusting the major leagues.
With his success this past season I’m very optimistic that we’ll see the real Gavin Lux build on his skills even further and become the dynamic player that earned him that very lofty No. 2 overall prospect ranking before his first season in the bigs. I think he’s put the yips behind him and I also think he’ll settle in nicely at SS, 2B or even Center Field if the Dodgers choose to put him there. I think the biggest factor on which position he plays depends on what the Dodgers do in the offseason to fill open positions around him. He’s a player that’s shown the ability to play multiple positions, and has shown moments of greatness at all of them. He has the range and athleticism to play shortstop with a strong enough arm to handle the position. In fact, I see our own Trea Turner as a comp to Lux, both offensively and defensively. I don’t think it’s out of the question for Lux to hit 15-20 home runs a year and he certainly has the speed to steal bases. At age 24 Trea Turner’s stats were very close to Lux’s with a livelier ball and a much more hitter-friendly home stadium. In 502 career innings at SS, Lux has just 7 errors. Not far off the 16 errors in 1386 innings that Trea had last season at the position while not having the luxury of playing the position full-time like his counterpart.
Most likely he’ll stay at second or move to CF depending on what the Dodgers do. The free agent market is pretty heavy with talented shortstops. Tim Anderson, a troublemaker and loudmouth, has a club option that will likely be exercised, but it’s not certain since the White Sox underperformed this past season and may look to save money or spend it elsewhere depending on what they think are realistic chances that the team will contend for the postseason heading into next season. Xander Bogaerts can opt out of the remaining 3 years of his contract that holds an AAV of $20M per year. Carlos Correa, just 28 years old, hinted that he intends on opting out of his contract, and Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are both unrestricted free agents. No other position seems to have as many good options as SS and CF is especially devoid of available talent unless you think Aaron Judge is really a center fielder. Beyond Judge the only really good true center fielder is Brandon Nimmo, who derives most of his value by having elite on base skills without the stolen base threat to really make the most of them. He’s also seldom healthy and isn’t an elite defender.
It’s my opinion that Gavin will play the position that the Dodgers need him to play and there’s a lot of directions the Dodgers can go with the positional flexibility they have. I certainly would rather see the best defensive alignment and not see Vargas in LF, JT at 3B, Muncy at 2B and Lux in Center, but that’s certainly a possibility. My preference would be seeing the Dodgers sign Carlos Correa for SS and hit in the middle of the order with Lux at 2B, Vargas at 3B, Cody for one last try in CF and a whole lot of competition in LF with Muncy as the primary DH where he belongs.
I think all the old narratives about Lux are now fake news and we’ll see all of them put to bed in the upcoming season. whether he winds up at SS, 2B or CF will remain to be seen depending on who the Dodgers are able to acquire to fill those other positions.
And just for fun…
Discussion (16)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I didn’t watch a single World Series game this season. I was curious enough to check game outcome after played but just spending the time doing anything else appeared more interesting. One of my favorite World Series was Pirates vs Orioles after Pirates KOed Dodgers to win the Pennant. Guess I never hated Pirates. I also don’t hate San Diego. I’ll say my congrats to Dusty when he manages a different team.
Now the fun begins. The hot stove season is here. Congrats to Dusty. Had to wait for his second ring since 81.
Is that advise from the wife?
Whoever wants the Dodgers to sign Correa to never call the Astros cheaters again, is incredible, you don’t hire one of the thieves who stole your company for your company’s security department !!!
Will be happy for dusty if he wins.But only dusty. Bregman and altuve go eat sh____t! No Correa ever! Resign tre and go get reynolds from pirates. Sign drury and resign turner as designated hitter and some 3rd. Like the burnes idea! Maybe work out something with belli or cut him loose, I would really hate to lose him, Taylor. Back, but new message needed for hitters, ad a new voice in docs ear. Go Phillies!
Report out there that the Red Sox might be interested in moving Alex Verdugo. Apparently they were not too happy that he bulked up last off season in an attempt to hit for more power. Seems his bulking up slowed him down on the bases and also slowed him in the field. His defensive stats were down.
1. Betts RF
2. Lux 2B
3. Turner SS
4. Freeman 1B
5. Josh Bell DH
6. Smith C
7. Muncy 3B
8. Vargas LF
9. Bellinger CF
SP:
1 Burnes
2 Urías
3 Bauer
4 Kershaw
5 May
My thoughts on position players is don’t fix what isn’t broke.
The top 3 in the lineup was huge during the regular season, therefore sign T Turner. There wasn’t any holes in the infield this year including J Turner .278/.350/.438/.788, that slash line isn’t great but the Dodgers lacked contact this year with so many 3 true outcome players and J Turner isn’t one of them. Therefore sign J Turner. Again don’t fix what isn’t broke.
The outfield had 2 holes, therefore fix what was broke. I haven’t looked at the free agent list, so I don’t have any suggestions right now for the 2 broke outfield spots. But I’d like to see Outman in CF.
I guess Muncy will probably be the DH. 3 true outcome there though.
The bench sucked, therefore fix what was broke. Barnes is a lock and I guess Taylor will stay (3 true outcome). So there’s 2 spots to fill. Again, I don’t have any free agent suggestions right now. I guess Vargas could be the 3rd guy on the bench.
Conclusion: 2 outfield spots and 2 bench spots need to be fixed. Or with Vargas and Outman only 2 spots total.
NO NO NO to Carlos Correa.
The pitching staff was pretty darn good this year, so don’t fix what isn’t broke. Therefore sign Kershaw, Anderson, Martin, Kahnle and let the other free agents go (Kimbrel, Heaney), they weren’t good anyways.
Betts
T Turner
Freeman
Right handed power hitter in LF
Smith
Muncy
Outman
J Turner
Lux
I guess the bench could be Barnes, Taylor, Vargas, and a left handed hitter. I guess maybe Rios.
Anyways my 2 cents.
What is there such thing as a baseball commission? It started because the blacksox scandal. And Buck Weaver was banned from baseball for life which that ban stayed through the several appeals and Weaver wasn’t part of throwing any games. He only had inside news of players of taking money for a fix which it didn’t take an insider to tell that was happening. What this now commission did isn’t in that same color but still even years after Weaver’s death upholds his life suspension. This now commission owes Weaver one hell of a lot apologies especially with the handling of Astros cheating. Banning a player for life that didn’t want any part of that crime and that has come down to giving complete passes to players caught cheating is outlandish. We should make Rob Manfred strange fruit from some palm tree and Carlos Correa up there with him. Correas sins will not be forgiven from this then, now and hopefully always Dodgers fan!
Gosh, I wouldn’t mind Tim Anderson at all if Turner can’t be resigned.
Much more than Boegarts, FWIW.
Yah or Nay on JT? Next October I’d rather put the money towards deGrom than JT and Belli. It’s a gamble physically but if he’s healthy that could mean 2 wins a series. Once again this year pitching beats hitting in October. And I’m with you, all in on Gavin!
Ya forgot one very famous case of the yips that ended in a position change and a stellar career at that new position. Steve Garvey. Garvey came up as a third baseman and quite possibly put every fan seated behind first base in serious jeopardy. When he moved to first and Cey took over at third, problem solved. I think Lux can be a solid player. Maybe even an all-star, but not in the outfield. What little I saw of him out there made me believe he belongs somewhere in the infield. Changes I feel need to be made, A. a power RH bat, JT is not that player anymore, and they are power heavy from the left side. Only Smith and Betts are true power threats from the right. Bellinger, if they decide to bring him back, needs to spend as much time as possible re-thinking his hitting philosophy. Listen more to Freddie Freeman and less to Brown and Von Shylock. No on Correa. If they miss out on any of the big-name SS, signing Rafael Iglesias for a year while Amaya grows a little would not bother me at all. Guy did some very good things for the Rockies and he has a solid RH bat with some pop.
Excellent article, B&P!
Prior to his late season injury, Lux was hitting 300 with an OBP of 400. Hopefully, he can continue to improve and develop HR power in MLB.
Both lineup proposals by Mark and B&P are reasonable. However, under no circumstances would I sign Correa. It would be a slap in the face to Dodger players and fans. Keith Law rates Correa as the top overall free agent above Judge, Turner, and Degrom and projections have Correa getting $325 million. I disagree. I would prefer Judge, Turner, Bogaerts or Swanson above Correa. And if none of the top SS are available then backup options like Iglesias, Adames or Amaya are preferable to giving Correa $325 million.
Both lineups exclude Chris Taylor who has $45 million remaining on his contract, and will be on the roster whether we like it or not.
And on AM570, JT confirmed that he has not heard from Dodgers on his option yet and he is in limbo. He definitely plans to play next year, and wants to return to Dodgers, but will play elsewhere if necessary. It seems to me that Dodgers should be able to workout a mutually agreeable deal for 2023. Even if JT regresses, his leadership, experience and community involvement are valuable to the franchise.
Dodgers primary needs are a SS and locking up 2 of their FA starting pitchers, preferably Kershaw and Anderson.
They can compete with this roster and the young players coming up.
Good read, BP.
I’d rather see the Dodgers keep Gavin Lux at second and bring back Trea Turner. All it really comes down to is a willingness to ink the big deal. It’s not about the east, it’s about the deal.
But I have no idea what the Dodgers are thinking. Or maybe they’re overthinking it. Probably still stuck in denialism. We did everything right, pulled all the right levers and yet we’re on the outside looking in … we won 111 games, what happened?
I’ve reached the conclusion that there is no right way. There is no formula, no levers you can pull to change any of this.
It is what it is.
So as the Dodgers consider the future, 2023 and beyond and no doubt they’re wondering what to do with Lux. He could play short, second or center. Most likely he’s at second or short.
Do they want to pay Trea $300 million plus? No, I don’t think they do. They didn’t want to pay Seager. Maybe they were concerned about injuries.
They’re paying Mookie over $300 million. Is he playing like a $300 million player?
But contract offers are somewhat weird. Consider their offer to Harper. Big bucks, but shorter deal. Then they trade for Betts, boom they ink an even more expensive deal during a pandemic. Then there was the pursuit of Gerrit Cole, thankfully won by the Yankees. Dodgers seemed willing to spend, apparently offering a $300 million, eight year deal. Does any of this make sense? Cole isn’t producing like a $300 million pitcher.
Dodgers young starters, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin, had better seasons.
Every time someone points out the Dodgers are looking to reduce payroll, they sign a Freddy Freeman.
I’m not sure any of the names being tossed around as shortstop replacements make any sense. Carlos Correa? No and no way. You sign him and you open the season with a massive controversy.
Then there is Xander Bogaerts. Good player. So, we’re down to Trea, Xander or Gavin. No matter what the loss of Trea means a big offensive hole. I would agree that Xander offers the best alternative.
I don’t believe the Dodgers will sign Judge so Mookie starts in right. They keep Cody in center and cross their fingers on his bat. They can hope Miguel Vargas is a bat that is ready, particularly if they lose Trea and move Gavin to short. Justin Turner returns. Not a good look if he doesn’t. They boost starter depth and bring back Anderson.
Or maybe they’re looking ahead. Saving the big bucks for Shohei Ohtani.
Since there is no formula or specific levers that will guarantee a World Series big. Did anybody expect the Phillies to be in the series?
All good points today, BP. Winter is here, not long until a picture begins to form.
I was right with you until you said Correa at SS and Belli in center. I can only see Belli in center if they release him and resign him. Correa can play SS for us…… when hell freezes over!
I just don’t think enough fans, and maybe some players are over that. Even Phillies fans are still booing the astericks and they didn’t even get cheated out of a World Series!
I agree 100% with most of the stuff about Gavin Lux. I think he will have a breakout year in 2023. He can hit 15-18 HR, but if he can hit over .300 with an over .370 OB%, he should lead off. I think it’s likely he will stay as 2B, as I do not see the Dodgers signing Judge, but if Bellinger is not back, then I can see him in CF and doing a fine job if he gets the reps. Hopefully, the YIPS are gone, but I think it would be wise not to put him at SS. Focus on his strengths.
He hit .276 with a .346 OB% this season so, .300 with a .370 OB% is not out of the question.
Mookie wants to hit Leadoff, but in the Spring, he should voice his willingness to hit wherever Doc wants him. I am not sold on Carlos Correa, and it’s not his character – it’s his health.
Since 2015, not counting the COVID Season, here are how many games he has played each year:
99
153
109
110
75
148
136
He is more injury-prone than Seager.
If Turner does not return, I would try Bogearts. He would stretch the lineup a lot.
Vargas needs to play. JT needs to DH. Max is the third-baseman. Miguel has to play LF – give him all the reps in the spring.
Could this be the lineup:
1. Lux CF
2. Betts RF
3. Freeman 1B
4. Muncy 3B
5. Bogearts SS
6. Smith C
7. Busch 2B
8. Turner DH
9. Vargas LF
Much more balanced than last year! It’s all conjecture. There will be a myraid of twists and turns we never saw coming.
For the record:
1. I said Seager was ready a year earlier than when he was called up.
2. I said Seager would stay at SS. That WAS fake news.
3. I said Bellinger was ready the year he took over for A-Gon.
4. I said Bellinger would be in the HOF.
.750 ain’t bad!