Dave Roberts
Conventional Wisdom: Fire Dave Roberts
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Many Dodger Fans blame Dave Roberts for the loss in Game 4 of the NLCS because he took Tyler Anderson out after five excellent innings. Anderson had only allowed two hits and thrown 86 pitches, and the Dodgers were ahead 2-0! What if Roberts had let Tyler Anderson pitch the 6th inning? Maybe he would have set the Padres down in order, but what if he gave up a couple or three runs? Well, of course, Roberts would have been the reason the Dodgers lost. “Roberts is an Idiot for leaving Anderson in.” I can hear it now. It’s the same narrative for those whose minds are slanted against Doc. Your job is so easy… and predictable. It’s always Doc’s fault… no matter what he does!
Anyway, for the 2022 season, here are Tyler Anderson’s ERA’s by innings:
- 3.21 ERA – he has some trouble in the first…
- 2.25
- 2.25
- 2.89
- 1.26
- 4.43
So, if Doc had left Anderson in and he gave up some runs (you can see his ERA in the 6th is more than three times what it is in the 5th), he would have still been an idiot… and you would still be a genius! Second guessers are never wrong. See what I am saying. Looking forward from the 5th inning, it WAS the right decision. It’s the playoffs. Tensions are high, and the stakes are tightened. Looking back, it WAS the Wrong Decision. The Dodger bullpen failed Doc for one of the few times in 2022.
I am not a fan of Dave Roberts, but I also realize he is one of the best and is THE BEST manager when it comes to winning records. I would not have minded seeing him replaced after this loss, but he was not the reason the Dodgers lost to the Padres. It was on the players. Speaking of players, let’s look at a few and what their roles might be going forward.
James Outman
Conventional Wisdom: Outman is the next best thing!
“Sweet Baby James” Outman is the “Flavor of the Week” for many fans. They see that he hit .462 with a 1.409 OPS in 13 ABs, and they evidently assume that is exactly what he will be. They ignore the fact that he struck out 44% of the time. The Dodgers know something that you don’t: That was pure, blind luck. James Outman will never be any more than a 4th or 5th outfielder. I’m not saying that you don’t need guys like James – I am saying he is not a starter! He is athletic, and there’s a reason why AF did not bring him back after his initial call-up: To Keep his trade value high – He only could devalue himself.
In 473 ABs in the Minors last season, he hit .294 while OPS’ing .978. He hit 31 HR, 31 Doubles, and 7 Triples. He also struck out 152 times! Yikes! The last time the Dodgers had a player like this was a fellow named Joc Pederson, who hit .303 with 1.016 OPS to go along with 33 HR in the minors. Joc also struck out 149 times in 446 ABs. I said that Joc would never be anything better than a 4th outfielder. He did have his moments, but that is exactly what he is.
Let’s look at Cody Bellinger. In his last full minor league season, he hit .271 in 410 ABs and struck out 94 times. That went up to 146 strikeouts in his rookie year. If James Outman played every day, he would strike out over 200 times at the Major League Level. He might make the team, but it will be as a sub. Chicks dig the long ball – so do fans, but the Dodgers have plenty of long-ball threats. What this team needs is someone with bat-to-ball skills, which leads us to…
Miguel Vargas
Conventional Wisdom: Not Enough Power and No Position
Some want to send him back to AAA because he hit .170 in 46 ABs on the MLB Level, and so he can develop more power. Send him down so he can develop more power? Yeah, that will work. Miguel Vargas is a 15 – 18 HR guy right about now. As he matures, he might be a 25-30 HR guy, but he has surprising power right now. Watch this and tell me he has no power:
The fact of the matter is that guys who strike out less are much less susceptible to long slumps because they put the ball in play. You can have good luck or bad luck when you hit a ball, but when you strike out, you only have bad luck! If you really want to see Vargas’ skills watch this next clip. He hits a Sac Fly to drive in a run and then just goes with the pitch right up the middle to drive in two. Outman would have been swinging like a door!
Does it seem that every Dodger fan bitches about the Three Outcomes Players, and then they want more? Absurd! The Dodgers need a bat like Miguel Vargas in the lineup. Fewer strikeouts, not more. He has shown he is a willing situational hitter. He is more like Freddie Freeman than James Outman. James Outman may have a nice career as a sub. Miguel will be an All-Star! Play him at 3B or LF, and he will be solid. If he knows he will play either 3B or LF, he will work and become an above-average defender.
Cody Bellinger
Conventional Wisdom: Move on From Bellinger
I cannot think of another player who has gone from the Penthouse to the Outhouse so quickly. Some fans like to say that he really only had a season and a half of good baseball. That is ludicrous! Let’s look at his stats.
- 2017 – 480 ABs – 39 HR/.933 OPS (ROY)
- 2018 – 557 ABs – 25 HR/.813 OPS (sophomore jinx)
- 2019 – 558 ABs – 47 HR/1.035 OPS (MVP)
- 2020 – 213 ABs – 12 HR/.788 OPS
- 2021 – 315 ABs – 10 HR/.542 OPS
- 2022 – 504 ABs – 19 HR/.654 OPS
Some fans (wrongly) say, “Well, he had a bad second half to 2019.” Really? Let’s look at the facts: Pre-All-Star Game 2019, Cody had an “otherworldly” 1.124 OPS. In the second half, his OPS was .917. In case you don’t know or don’t remember, an OPS over .900 is considered “Superstar Status.” He started down the toilet in 2020 (.788 OPS – still better than average), and then in 2021, his OPS slipped to .542 as he was injured. He raised it 110 points in 2022, but was most pathetic.
At age 27, Cody Bellinger has 152 HR, a ROY Award, and an MVP Award. I don’t know what to expect. Should he stay, or should he go? I don’t know. I do know he is among the best (if not THE BEST) defensive CF’er in baseball. I also know he looked lost most of the time. I know his teammates love him and that he works hard. He is not a knucklehead, but offensively, he looks overmatched. I also believe that if you have done it before, you can do it again. What to do? I would love to give him another year, but I understand why the Dodgers might not do that. It would just hurt a lot to see him pick up another MVP on another team. I am not saying he will be that guy again, but I am not writing him off. This is what is called a conundrum.
Hanser Alberto
Conventional Wisdom: Buy him out for $250,000
Hanser Alberto did not deliver the season Andrew Friedman envisioned. He only had 159 ABs and hit just .244 after hitting .305 in 2019, .283 in 2020, and .270 in 2021. He did hit .279 against LHP but it was with little power. For his career, he has averaged .323 against LHP with a .341 OB%. I choose to think that last year was an outlier. Without the shift being utilized and with a new season, I think Alberto will hit closer to his career numbers than last year’s numbers.
He also brings tremendous “intangibles” to the dance. He is a lively, enthusiastic teammate who keeps the dugout “loose.” If he can get back to his career averages (and why not?) he will be part of a very solid bench. He has a contract option for two years. I would pay him and keep him on the team.
Trayce Thompson
Conventional Wisdom: Bring him back as the CF or LF
The Dodgers and Trayce caught “Lightening in a Bottle” in 2022. He will be 32 next season and has never come close to having a partial season as good as he did in 2022. I don’t want to rain on his parade, but how many players have more strikeouts than hits and bases on balls combined? Trayce struck out 86 times in 239 PAs. That’s 36.5%! Joey Gallo was at 38.8%. CT3 was at 35.2%. Cody Bellinger was 27.3%. James Outman was 43.8%. Trayce Thompson was lucky – pure and simple. Don’t count on it happening again! At best, Tyayce is a 4th or 5th outfielder and a great LA “feel-good story.” We are all suckers for one of those. I simply cannot see having Thompson and Outman as spare outfielders (especially if CT3 is on that bench too). Yes, they are a L-R combo, but the strikeout numbers are alarming! A smart guy by the name of Tanner Bell, almost ten years ago, figured this out:
“All other factors held constant, a 5% increase in strikeout rate will result in roughly a 16 to 18 point drop in batting average“
Chris Taylor
Conventional Wisdom: He is an Excellent Swiss Army Knife
Yes, CT3 can play all outfield positions and most infield positions very effectively. He has not really been a sub for LA as he has averaged about 500 AB’s a year. If he is a sub and you don’t have strikeout artists like Outman, Thompson, and Gallo on the Bench with him, then he could be a nice swiss army knife, but your entire bench cannot be a strikeout machine. Last year’s bench with Gallo, Thompson, and Taylor was exactly that. If you add Outman, it becomes much worse. Most of these guys cannot be on the team in 2023.
Lots of Dodger fans have pined for Brandon Drury, and he is an option for a bench role and could be signed as a free agent. He is not as good defensively as CT3, but he strikes out less, while being injured more. It seems unlikely that CT3 can be traded so maybe a guy like Drury could fill a nice bench role. The problem is he just had his career year, and someone will offer him a starting spot when he is only a bench player.
Andrew Heaney
Conventional Wisdom: He Gives up too many HR. Let him go.
Andrew Heaney pitched for the Yankees in 2021 and had a 7.32 ERA. The Dodgers turned him into a two-pitch pitcher, and the results were evident. He put up a 3.10 ERA in 73 IP. He allowed 60 hits and just 19 BB. He struck out 110 batters! 110 in 73 IP. He did give up 14 HR, but many were of the solo type… thus the 3.10 ERA. Letting him go is tantamount to throwing the baby out with the bathwater! Now, if someone wants to overpay, then so be it, but to just want him gone because he gave up a few HR ignores a lot of positives. I’ll say it again, “Progress is not linear!“
His strikeouts per 9 innings pitched was #11 in all of baseball. If you only counted starting pitchers, Heaney was #3 in strikeouts per 9 innings. Only Spencer Strider and Jacob deGrom were better. Among relievers, he was #9 in Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.
The Dodgers have turned Andrew Heaney into a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball and a sweeping slider. After his final DL stint, his control was not as sharp, and that is where he gave up most of his Home Runs. Heaney now has incredible “swing-and-miss stuff.” As he approaches his age 32 season, I think he would be extremely effective as a reliever. Maybe his body would be more able to handle pitching an inning or two three or four times a week than as a starter. I would try and convince Andrew to move to the bullpen… maybe even as a closer. His stuff is way too filthy.
MLB TRADE RUMORS is high on Heaney and says this:
When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.
Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.“
Justin Turner
Conventional Wisdom: At age 38, Father Time has Caught up to JT – Let him walk
It sure looked that way last year as JT hit .197 in March and April, .240 in May, and .236 in June, but then he caught on fire and hit .400 in July, .314 in August, and .322 in September. He struck out just 89 times in 532 Plate Appearances. There is always a risk that he will just suddenly “lose it,” but I don’t think it will happen in 2023. I would exercise the $16 million, and he becomes the prime DH, with Max Muncy being the everyday 3B. He can relieve Max at 3B every couple of weeks and DH 5 or 6 days a week. If you leave Max at 3B, he will be very much above average. He takes his defense seriously. He’s no Aernado, but he would be solid if he didn’t have to move all over the diamond.
In Conclusion…
Only one of James Outman, CT3, and Trayce Thompson make the team in my world. I would be tempted to bring back Cody Bellinger, Hanser Alberto, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney (as a reliever). So many fans look in the rearview mirror – that shows you who might have been good LAST year. I prefer to look out of the windshield. I want the guy who is going to be good Next Year. That includes Miguel Vargas.
I prefer to keep Gavin Lux at 2B, but if all the shortstops are overpriced, there may be no other choice. There are so many options, and that includes free agents like Nimmo, Pillar, Kiermaier, Pollock, Haniger, and others. Clayton Kershaw is a question mark: Texas or LA? Who knows? Would the Dodgers put the QO on him?
What happens to Danny Duffy?
Jimmy Nelson is intriguing.
There is a lot of ground to cover, including what five players come off the roster to open up spots for Mike Busch, Andy Pages, Diego Cartaya, Jose Ramos, and Jonny DeLuca? The Dodgers still could lose 3 or 4 players to the Rule 5 Draft, including Carlos Duran, Ryan Noda, Hunter Feduccia, and Hyun-il Choi.
And… of course, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is Trevor Bauer, whom we should be hearing about before December. Stay tuned for the Wild Ride!
Just for Fun…
There are rumors out of Boston that Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo are either not happy or may be available. Devers is not a great 3B but is serviceable. Both are LH.
So, do not re-sign Justin Turner.
Do not sign Bellinger.
Trade Mike Busch, Miguel Vargas, Johnny Deluca, and Dalton Rushing to Boston for Devers and Verdugo.
Sign Judge.
Lineup:
- Lux SS (L)
- Betts 2B (R)
- Freeman 1B (L)
- Judge RF (R)
- Devers DH (L)
- Smith C (R)
- Muncy 3B (L)
- Verdugo CF (L) He has to lose some weight
- Taylor LF (R)
Not saying it is something I would do. Just brainstorming! It is not a great defensive team, but the offense might average 7 runs a game. However, I hate trading all that… so I say NO! That’s a definite maybe! This is the first hair-brained traded idea of the offseason. Let it begin, and never say the word “ASSTROS” again…. ever!
Arizona Fall League Update
- Andy Pages is hitting .301 while OPS’ing .891. He has 4 HR and 11 RBI after a very slow start.
- After a hot start, Jose Ramos has slumped to .246. It’s obvious they are working on his swing/stance.
- Emmet Sheehan has a 4.70 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. It is apparent to me that they are working on a new pitch or grip with him.
- Hyun-il Choi has pitched 11 innings with a 6.35 ERA after missing the entire 2022 season. I have no idea what is going on here.
- Project Tanner Dodson has a 7.15 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. He is being converted to a pitcher… maybe.
- Ben Harris has no idea where his pitches are going. In 9 IP, he has struck out 9, walked 13, and allowed ten runs – 7.71 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP.
The Fall All-Star Game is today at 2 PM. Andy Pages is the only Dodger on the team. Other than Emmet Sheehan, the rest of the Dodgers have looked pathetic. This is the worst bunch I have ever seen! Last night they held the HR Derby. Pages was in it, but it was won by Robert Perez, Jr.
The Cheaters
But the biggest little, self-righteous, lying cheater is this punk:
Of course, Rob Manfred did not have the guts to do what he should have with massive evidence but then he suspends Trevor Bauer? I hope the Bauer suspension fits right up his….
Justin Turer vs. 95+ MPH Fastballs
Source: The Athletic
Discussion (41)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The way the Dodgers use the waiver wire, I wonder if Luke Williams will still be on the roster on Opening Day, or Spring Training for that matter.
This is not a political comment!
We all know that Rob Manfred moved the All-Star Game to Denver from Atlanta because of the “allegedly” restrictive Georgia Voting Laws. What happened in the election was a referendum on that and Manfred. Voters turned out in record numbers (they had no problems voting) and voted out the race-baiting Stacy Abrams and, in effect, said, “F YOU, Rob Manfred! The people have spoken! If you want to do the right thing, you will bring the All-Star Game back to ATL in 2023.
The Luke Williams era begins!
In case you missed it, he’s a UT guy the Dodgers just picked up on waivers from the Marlins. Who knows? Maybe the Dodgers could do for him what they did for Chris Taylor and Justin Turner when they came over. Like Taylor, he has decent speed, and it seems that he’s a candidate to replace Alberto. (Maybe he can pitch in blow-outs.)
Williams must feel good about this. He’s a local guy, from south Orange County. A 3rd-round pick out of Dana Hills High.
Anyway, sometimes little deals make a big difference, as was the case with Taylor, Justin and Max Muncy too.
‘
For B&P:
News: Jerry Dipoto just indicated Mariners are unlikely to extend Mitch Haniger a qualifying offer.
Need lots of space for Rule V players, I think.
Toribo reports Dodgers will decline Alberto’s 2 mil option
Dodgers claim outfielder Luke Williams off waivers from the Marlins. Williams, 25, was originally drafted by the Phillies. He has hit .240 in 137 big league games. He split last season between the Giants and the Marlins. Another name in the LF sweepstakes. Also, AJ Pollock declined his player option with the ChiSox, instead taking the 5 mil buy out. Williams is pure AAA emergency fodder.
Emmet Sheehan was absolutely DOMINANT in AFL action today
The Dodgers prospect struck out 8 batters in a row and finished with 10 punchouts.
Interesting article on Dodger Nation about TT. At the end of the article there is a video that is worth the watching.
https://dodgersnation.com/dodgers-news-trea-turners-agent-sends-highlights-reel-to-teams/2022/11/08/
FWIW, the Dodgers beat reporter, Jack Harris, had the following to add in reference to Kasten’s interview:
This will be important context to remember this offseason. Dodgers will go after FAs if they feel fit is right. But they’re also confident they have 6-7 young players potentially capable of MLB impact next year
Some have compared it to the young wave they brought up in 2019
VOTE TODAY to stop this insanity!!
Hall of Fame announces the eight players who will be considered by the ERA committee, formerly the Veterans committee. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Shilling, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Fred McGriff and Rafael Palmeiro. Clemens, Bonds and Palmeiro all have ties to the PED mess. Shilling had his name pulled from the last ballot due to some controversial comments made by him. Mattingly had five really good seasons, then fell off because of injuries and such. Murphy finished with 399 homers. But he won 2 MVP awards. McGriff has exactly the same number of career homers as Lou Gehrig, 493. Belle was not very well liked by the press, but he was a career .295 hitter with 381 HR’s and 1239 RBI’s. My guess, Bonds may have the best shot, but I would rather see Murphy and McGriff make it. I think Mattingly’s numbers fall short. Clemens is not very well liked either.
This just in from MiB.com:
Top MLB Prospect (Pacific Coast League): Miguel Vargas, Oklahoma City (LAD)
In a loaded Dodgers system, Vargas stood out as one of the best. The 22-year-old hit .304/.404/.511 with 100 runs scored in 113 games with Oklahoma City, earning a callup to Los Angeles at the end of August and belting his first MLB homer in September. The club’s No. 3 prospect (MLB No. 41) was third in the PCL with a .915 OPS and his .404 OBP was second overall in the circuit.
And 5 years later he couldnt hit .250 if he was playing tee ball!
The last time someone argued so much that a guy was not ready, he was called up in the first month and hit 39 HR AND was the ROY!
Congrats to Doc for NL manager of the year finalist. Are you excited for him B&P?
Oh, I think that Vargas is very much “the anointed one” now.
If not him, then who?
He’s the one who got the runway late in the season, failed to deliver–and then got put on the postseason roster anyway.
And stayed on the bench.
Juan Toribio of MLB.com, who regularly interviews Roberts and the brass, has basically penciled Vargas into the 2023 starting lineup, playing leftfield. So has Mark and a few other folks here. The conventional wisdom, it seems, is that he “can’t miss”–that he is far and away the best MLB-ready prospect in the system. So what if he struggled badly when he was given when given about 50 plate appearances and still rewarded with the postseason roster spot. (Again, he only walked twice in those 50 PAs. Outman, allegedly less disciplined, walked twice in about 35 fewer PAs.)
Well, I hope the Vargas fans are right and he proves the skeptics wrong.
But I also know MLB has had many “can’t miss” prospects who missed.
In related news, it cracks me up that Mark likens Outman to Joc as if it was some sort of dis. If Outman hits like Joc, that would be fine! Joc, best used in a platoon, has had a long, productive ML career. And Outman is the superior fielder. (By the way, someone here once claimed that Outman’s performance in OKC really dropped off after his too-brief MLB stay. This is wildly wrong: he even hit for two cycles within a week. And please, anyone who wants to compare 2022 stats of Outman and Vargas, remember to factor in the ML numbers.)
If AF was trying to protect Outman’s trade value, well, perhaps he could have flipped him for Drury or Bader or Ian Happ or other proven major leaguer. Outman is now 25, an aging trade asset in the minors.
But come to think, wasn’t Judge a late bloomer? I think reached the majors at 25 too. Not saying Outman is the next Judge, of course, but I’m sure that Joc has been better than Belli and Gallo lately.
When I mocked up a glove-first, already-under-contract lineup for the Dodgers, I put Outman in CF flanked by Mookie and Trayce. Vargas played 3B in OKC but, unlike Amaya at SS and Outman at CF, he hasn’t earned raves, so I have him DH.
Did he ever play 3B at the ML level? I don’t think so–and it’s not like an error or two would have cost the Dodgers the division. What gives? Some of these decisions were just mind-boggling.
So I put Vargas in a DH platoon with Rios. But now I remember that Will Smith will shift there when Barnes plays.
But never mind.
Because Vargas is now commonly perceived as the leftfielder of the future!
And he’ll probably be OK. At least better than Lux was out there.
Let’s bring back Puig.
Justin Turner vs. 95+ MPH CHART
Post Updated Above.
It ain’t pretty.
The loss of the shift won’t help all the K’s and pop ups with Bellinger. If he comes back next year he needs to comeback MUCH more physically stronger than he’s ever been. We’ll see how much he wants it. The ban of the shift will really help a healthy Muncy next year
Justin Turners’ struggles against 95+ MPH fastballs started 2 or 3 years ago. I have changed my mind – It is going to get worse. I would install Miguel Vargas as the new 3B in the Spring.
Benintendi for the Outfeld somewhere.
It’s just hard for me to believe that AF would go with Amaya or Lux at short. Or Taylor, Thompson or Outman in center. Not that I’m campaigning to keep Bellinger! I think Vargas in LF is the only young possibility to start at the beginning of 23. And no to Judge. Give me more pitching!
I’m totally fine with the Dodgers going with a youth movement this year as long as they address the imbalance in the lineup. The need for right-handed power in the middle isn’t something they can easily fill from players in the minor leagues. I don’t see Pages realistically stepping into that role this upcoming season after underperforming at AA this past season. Look further and you won’t find any right-handed-hitting prospects that are anywhere near close to stepping into such a critical spot on the order.
Soon, we won’t have to hear about whether we should keep JT or Belli. Options are due to be exercised in just 3 days (November 10), so JT’s decision will have clarity this week. On the same day, a decision is due on qualifying offers for free agents. Just 5 days later, on November 15, rule 5 players will need to be added to the 40 man and just 3 days after that, teams must offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players and pre-arbitration players, or non tender them.
11 more days of discussing Bellinger and 3 more days of discussing JT.
I 100% Agree with what Keith Law said:
“I think the Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. The best team doesn’t always win – not in the playoffs, not in a series, not in any particular game. Really don’t understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team. This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It’s not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.”
I also went back and re-read what Stan Kasten said: I think it was a proclamation of the road the Dodgers will travel this winter. Here is what I believe he was saying:
“We have seen that spending the most money does not guarantee a World Series. We have a loaded Farm System, and it’s time for them to produce. Therefore we are going to allow them the opportunity to do just that. Justin Turner and Tyler Anderson will not be back. Andrew Heaney will not be back, unless it’s at market value. Clayton will likely not be back. We will try and create spots for Vargas, Busch, Amaya, Stone, Pepiot, and Miller this season with more next season. You might be surprised at the results, and if at the Trade Deadline, we have to throw some money at it, we will. “
That’s what I think he was saying.
Keith Law recently:
Reports there are quite a few rumors of Ohtani to SFG.
In chat:
James: Dave Roberts did nothing to warrant losing his job, right ?
Keith Law: Right. Really don’t understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team. This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It’s not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.
Jeff: I wonder if the Dodgers “failures” in the postseason are more due to approach and strategy towards a short series more so than anything else. They seem to have a bullpen game in virtually every series including the most recent game 3 which was after not playing in round 1 and a day off between games 2 and 3. I know the postseason is a small sample size so its not entirely indicative of who is the best team but when you have so much talent and you lose more than you win, something has to be the cause other than the randomness of the outcome of a baseball game/series.
Keith Law: How could we truly distinguish that from the randomness of a short series? I don’t know if we could. I also kept thinking the series might have been different with a healthy Buehler, although that’s all hypothetical (and then don’t you have to ask the same about Padres/Tatis?).
Mason: So when do we cancel the playoffs and annoiunt the LAD rightful champs?
Keith Law: That was such a bizarre column – the first one, at least – and then someone tried to pit me against that writer on twitter, which I am not interested in doing at all.
Keith Law: And then other people piggybacked on this stupid idea. I think the Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. The best team doesn’t always win – not in the playoffs, not in a series, not in any particular game.
Mets gave Diaz 5 years. 102 million. Rockies make first trade sending Sam Hilliard to the Braves for a minor league pitcher.
Nice defense of Bellinger but I think he needs to go. Yeah, he’s a great defender. I could live with marginally less defense and a lot more hitting. Especially for 19 million. Time to move on without another unproductive year. I’m glad that Mark hold out hope. I don’t.
The one good 1/2 year. In the first 82 games of 2019, Belli was unconscious. He hit .346 / 1137, with 27 dingers and striking out only 17% of AB’s. The remainder of the 2019 season, he hit .259 / .921 (nice OPS but a fall from 1137 the first 1/2) and his strike out rate increased to 22%. He still had MVP stats for the season and finished up at .305 / 1035 with 47 dingers. But the 2nd half of 2019 was the beginning of his downward spiral, in my opinion. in the 2019, 5 game post season, Bellinger hit .211 / .549 with 0 homers.
2020 WS Championship – in 56 games of the shortened season. Bellinger hit only .239 /.789 with 12 homers. In the post season of 18 games, Belli hit .212 / .770 with 0 homers and a 33% K rate.
2021 – By July 23, Bellinger was batting under .200. At the end of the month, Roberts made the decision to relegate Bellinger to a platoon role in the outfield, starting A. J. Pollock, Mookie Betts, or Chris Taylor against left-handed pitchers. Injuries to Pollock and Taylor, however, forced the Dodgers to renege on that platoon system shortly after its introduction.
Bellinger finished the regular 2021 season batting a career-low .165, with ten home runs and 36 RBIs in 315 at bats. Injuries certainly impacted his season, including a fractured rib on Sept. 13th. In the post season’s 12 games, however, he had his best career post season numbers hitting .353 /.907 w/ 33% K rate, despite the injuries.
2022 – We all know his season numbers and his post season benching while hitting .143 / .286, 57% K rate in 3 post season games.
I think a case can be made that he has actually had a spectacular 1/2 season in 2019 and 1 good post season and otherwise is a mediocre to poor hitter. I had predicted long ago this swing would not hold up, and it hasn’t. His swing was never built for longevity.
I watched the Mariners continue to stick with aging and eventually unproductive players after they won 116 games. They refused to make hard decisions and cut guys loose a year or two early instead hanging on a year or two too long. It took the more than decade to rebuild to be competitive. Say goodbye to Bellinger, CT3, Muncy or JT, Gallo for sure, Alberto and Thompson for my money. And I haven’t address the pitching. Please don’t remind me we won 111 games and the baby, and the bath water. It’s time to see the fruits of this great farm system we reportedly have with players we refused to trade.
I’m happy for Dusty Baker despite not being an Asstro fan. They can flat pitch. They have a nice stable of young latin pitchers especially Javier and Valdez, a rising star with the wicked Uncle Charlie. The handling of pitchers now days is so different and I can’t say I like it. Game 6, as mentioned, Wheeler is dealing in a great pitchers duel with Valdez. He hits a guy and give up a single with 1 out in the 5th. He’s given up 0 runs, 3 hits and 5 K’s on 70 pitches – and gets the hook by Rob Thompson. He went to Alvarado who promptly pooped the bed. Before the inning started Joe Davis and Smoltz were already talking about Wheeler reaching the end of the line. He was barely at 60 pitches. I know it’s loser out but he was effective. Show some trust and confidence.
Everybody is so conditioned now to expect pitchers to go 5 innings and 85 pitches. I don’t get it and don’t like it. Computers and analysts now decide when a pitcher is done and not the opposing hitters. Wheeler was on 6 days rest where he had thrown only 69 pitches his previous outing. He certainly didn’t looked tire. It’s the new way to manage but I long for the days when a Bob Gibson battled through adversity and pitched deep into games.
By the way, Smoltz drove me crazy and I’m a pitching guy. He overanalyzed ever pitch, every location and second guessed things to death. He never shut up.
Alright I gotta discus some things.
Alberto is a one trick pony and not very good at that one trick, and that is base hits against LHP with no walks and no power. I’ll list his slash lines vs LHP in years with at least 100 plate appearances against LHP.
.398/.414/.534/.948
.286/.318/.454/.771
.279/.286/.394/.680
As you can see he had one outrageously good year against LHP and that inflated his career numbers against LHP. Otherwise he’s a .282/.302/.424/.726 hitter against LHP and an extremely miserable hitter against RHP. Do you want that on the team? I don’t. And if you want him as a cheerleader, then give him some pom poms and put him in the first row by the Dodgers dugout.
Amaya .256/.362/.393/.754 minors career, .259/.368/.381/.749 2022 AAA. As you can see those numbers are almost exactly the same, and expect a drop off in the majors. To those of you that want more contact hitting do you really want that on the big league team? I don’t.
That leads me to Justin Turner, .296/.375/.490/.865 Dodgers career, .278/.350/.438/.788, 2022 slash line. Yes there’s a drop off in 2022 but a .278 batting average is considered making pretty good contact. So again to those of you that want more contact hitting do you really want to let him walk? I don’t.
Heaney career numbers, 1.25 WHIP, 1.6 HR/9, .250 BA, .755 OPS. WHIP is league average the rest are worse than league average. To Mark and any others, do you really want that? I don’t.
Gonsolin career numbers, 0.99 WHIP, .183 BA, .572 OPS. Those numbers are BY FAR WAY better than league average. Those are Clayton Kershaw numbers during his prime. I can’t believe anyone is talking about trading him. To those of you who are, you need to be in a mental institution.
I was going to list some minor league player numbers, Busch, Outman, Vargas, Grove, Jackson, but it has taken me too long to write the above stuff, so I’ll just be brief with these.
Grove and Jackson have small samples in the big leagues therefore I’ll talk about their important minors numbers at AA and AAA. Grove’s numbers are bad at both AA and AAA worse at AA. Jackson good at AA and bad at AAA. I don’t want them on the big league team. To me they are trade chips.
Busch to me is not quite ready from what I see in his numbers. I very much like Busch but that is my opinion.
Outman and Vargas. At AA they had similar slash lines. At AAA similar batting average, but Outman has Vargas beaten by a lot in OPS. To Mark and his 4th or 5th outfielder comments about Outman. If that is the case about Outman, then Vargas is a backup whatever his position is.
Good interview in the Times with Kasten. You can read a lot between the lines based on Stan’s comments. They may push a youth movement, the organization is high on a number of young impact players, but they will not hesitate to spend to make the team better.
I can see Miguel Vargas starting opening day and becoming an impact player. Cody Bellinger is a huge talent, but I have no idea if he finds his way back to 2019 or even .260 with 30 homeruns. Maybe the end of the shift shoots his average up.
Where the Dodgers go this winter probably begins with Trea Turner and shortstop. Not sure Gavin Lux is the guy. Everything revolves around that, first domino and all. Doubt Aaron Judge goes back to New York. Some thinking the Giants will go big on Judge.
Everything, of course, will depend on opportunity.
Mark is right about Andrew Heaney, it’s just a matter of health. Definitely see Anderson returning. Maybe Heaney too. Pitching is obviously the key.
So Kasten considers the Dodger season a success. I do too. Winning 111 games is amazing. I really have no expectations about the playoffs. All the games I saw at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers lost only one. That was a fun summer.
The Dodgers needed to win this year, but they didn’t. Oh well, life goes on. The pressure will build because many believe a season is a failure without a World Series trophy. And everyone wants the downtown parade. But LA puts a great product on the field every year and they drew almost four million fans.
I wish MLB would conclude the Trevor Bauer appeal so everyone can move on. I don’t want Bauer back. But I wouldn’t mind seeing Justin back.
Excellent column, Mark.
Chris Bassitt declined option with the Mets.
Commenting on the Plaschke article.
Of course Stan is going to come out and say he fully supports Andrew and Doc, CEO’s lie for a living by speaking the company line especially when the bottom line is very black when you’re selling tickets at top dollar, leading the league in attendance and winning the regular season by a longshot and both on fresh contracts.
A little more foreshadowing…
Busch, Vargas and Miller are their top guys for consideration to start the season. So, no need to go out and get a starting pitcher with Pepiot and Grove already on the roster and Stone, just a phone call away. No Mention of Outman and Amaya in that article, probably backup plans if they keep producing. That leaves just one spot to throw money at and that’s left field.
It comes down to this. Can they make up the offense lost by JT and TT with an improvement from Bellinger, a better option or platoon with CT3 and Outman in LF and Busch and Vargas as everyday players? That sounds fairly reasonable to me.
I love all the guess work going on here. But that is what the hot stove season is. 131 players are now free agents. More to come later. GM meetings start tomorrow in Vegas. Groundwork for trades will be made there. I would take a flyer on Syndergaard if he can be had cheaply enough. But that is just me.
Yeah, that’s not something I would do either. If I’m making trades, I’m getting a right-handed hitter or two. Certainly not two left-handed hitters in the same trade, both with questions about their defense. Both Busch and Outman strikeout at record levels. Is this team philosophy, or the player’s skill profile? When it seems to be every freaking player except for Vargas, it looks more like team philosophy to me.
Busch was considered one of the best college hitters in his draft class. He didn’t strike out anywhere near his current rate. As a college player, including summer leagues, he K’d at about 15% of his PA’s. Since the Dodgers got their mits on him, he’s at 26%. Just shy of twice as many k’s per PA.
Vargas has his dad to lean on to form his own philosophy on hitting. Lux improved this past season after spending the winter with his Uncle Augie to lean on. Stay the hell away from Brown and SVS and they might be able to improve.
This offseason will be really interesting. The 40 man roster is going to be full once they have to protect players from the rule 5 draft, so they’re gonna need to trade or cut players in order to make any adds.
On another note, I kinda like DodgerHorse’s lineup that he posted yesterday. Unfortunately, it also will probably push their payroll over $300M by keeping Belli and Kershaw while also paying Burnes, Bell and Trea Turner. I can’t see that happening, but you never know. Putting together a lineup is really easy if you have an unlimited budget. While I think the Dodgers budget probably won’t be a lot less than this past season, I certainly don’t think it will be unlimited either. I think the matra is go big or go home. Or, maybe they should dip below this year while Buehler is on the IL and go big next season.
I really like Josh Bell in that DH role, but don’t really like Muncy with a glove on his hand. I’d rather have Bell than Muncy if I had to pick between the two of them. I’d also rather not see them screw around with Vargas. I’d rather seem him develop into a 3rd baseman than have him learn a new position in LF. But, if you’re going to have a sub-par glove in the field, it might as well be left field if you have a great CF. Definitely not Verdugo, Betts or Judge in Center.
I keep thinking about what a healthy Mitch Haniger would do in between Friedman and Muncy in the lineup. But, he is yet another strikeout king. But, so is Judge, and he’ll cost probably twice as much. Neither of them are going get near 60 homers at Dodger stadium until MLB effs with the ball again. A high probability after offense was the worst I can remember.
I think trading for Reynolds is a pipe dream. He’ll be an overpay because he’s cheap and has 3 more years of team control. Forget about him. It’s NEVER going to happen. At least not this season.
If we’re going to make up nonsense trades, let’s shoot a little bigger and trade for Trout, Altuve, Buxton, Riley, Machado, Suarez or Springer because none of those are going to happen either.
I’m wondering if Judge wants would rather win or get paid. When the Giants give him a blank check, will he be blinded by the golden ticket to believe they’ll spend enough money around him to give him a chance to get a ring?
For all the JT fans out there. He was one of the worst hitters in the league with fastballs over 95MPH. What do you think he’s going to see in the postseason next year when all he sees is fastballs over 95? Time to move on.
Betts R RF
Lux L SS or 2B
Freeman L 1B
Haniger R LF
Muncy L DH
Smith R C
Vargas R 3B
Busch L or Amaya R 2B or SS
Belli L CF
CT3 would go back to being a Super Util and Hanser would be a bench player and they could dip under the cap this season. Maybe they could make a trade with some of the surplus players like Noda, Outman, Vivas and Leonard, or add Profar to play up the middle in the infield with Lux to give Bush or Amaya a little more time in the minors and still wind up under the cap.
Bellinger, JT, Heaney, Hanser, Rios, Trea Turner will not be Dodgers next year. CK, Tyler Anderson, Duffy and CT3 will be Dodgers next year. Bauer will have his suspension reduced and he will pitch as a Dodger next year. Vargas will be given the proverbial long runway and they will find him a position next year.
Chris Martin will re-sign. Verlander will sign a two-year deal and move to LA with his supermodel wife. Gonsolin will be traded for a SS.
Overall, great article Mark!
Roberts is not to blame for the 2022 playoff loss in my opinion. It is on the players, and especially the lack of hitting. However, I still disagree with Roberts’ decision to remove Anderson given his performance on that day, and the state of the Dodger bullpen. Roberts’ chose to pitch an injured Gonsolin in game 3 who did not last 2 innings. This decision stressed the bullpen when they had games on 3 consecutive days. By removing Anderson early, he was forced to use Kahnle, Almonte, Vesia, and Phillips on back to back days, even though 3 were coming off injuries. Kahnle had only pitched back to back games once the whole season. Roberts chose to overwork his bullpen instead of trust his starter who was throwing extremely well.
If this was the only time Roberts made questionable pitching decisions then he would get a pass. But he has made numerous ill-advised pitching decisions in the postseason. From removing Rich Hill early in 2017 and 2018, to overusing Morrow in 2017, to using Kershaw in extended relief in 2019, to pitching Joe Kelly more than Maeda and Jansen in 2019, to 2021 and misusing Urias, and this year.
Dave Roberts will be the manager for this year, and probably at least the next three years. He is good at several managerial functions and he deserves credit for his positive demeanor. But his pitching decisions in the postseason have been very questionable, and ideally the Dodgers will help him in this area or the players will perform better to overcome any poor decisions.
After the Roy, the mvp and all the clutch post season hits Cody has gotten for us he has shown himself to be a big game player. Andrew has said that he still feels that Cody has value so I believe they will give him 2023 and see what happens. He is too young and has too much upside to give up on him now.
JT has said he wants to keep playing. I think he should retire and sign a personal services contract with the Dodgers and become part of the community relations department. That way he stays a Dodger forever.
Plashke isn’t great, IMHO, but he got some good quotes from Kasten.
I’d temper 80% of your trade/FA expectations based on that article only.
Some good thoughts and projections Mark. The Dodgers lost to the Padres because they couldn’t hit a pitched baseball. Sure, Roberts probably could have left Anderson in longer. But, it’s another example ignoring what you are watching and let the numbers dictate the decision. I will never accept this way of managing a game. So what if Anderson’s ERA was 4.43 in the sixth inning this past year. That’s not an absolute given. He pitched more than six innings in 36% of his starts. It’s tiring watching this not only with the Dodgers, but throughput baseball.
In the game last night the Phils’ manager pulled Wheeler in the sixth after giving up a hit and a walk. He had given up only one other hit. I don’t know what his stats were after the fifth inning, but he was still effective. With left hand hitting Alvarez coming up the manager brings in his top left handed, hard throwing Alvarado. In the series Alvarado had allowed all the runners he inherited to score. Alvarez quickly hits a three run home run and that pretty much ends the Phils’ hopes of winning the game. So, the stats say to pull Wheeler who had been doing OK and bring in a reliever who had been ineffective in the Series. That’s what bothers me about analytics. They’re used to justify one move and completely ignored in other decisions.
As far as the player projections I say yes to Vargas, yes to Heaney as a reliever, and yes to Taylor only in a utility role. Although a trade of Taylor wouldn’t bother me. Outman needs to be included in a trade. Bellinger and Trayce not resigned. With Taylor, Bellinger, Trayce, and Outman the strikeouts are too much. Also, Rios shouldn’t take up a roster spot. Constantly injured, too many K’s, and he’ll be 29. With the shift being eliminated or restrained I hope the emphasis on contact will be encouraged. Resign Alberto and play him more and reduce Taylor’s playing time. I know Taylor is making a lot of money, but it was a bad signing and doesn’t need to be justified by playing him. I’ve never seen a MLB player swing and miss pitches at the rate he does. It’s not just the strikeouts, but all the empty swings on the way to strike three. If Trae isn’t resigned then I think Amaya should be given a shot a SS. With what the team put up with offensively from the bottom of the order (sans Lux) this past year they should be able to withstand Amaya’s supposed weakness at the plate. At any rate it should be an interesting off season.
Carry on.
I wonder about Bauer. It seems reasonable that his suspension would be cut in half because noone has been suspended that long and he broke no laws. But then what? Would the Dodgers play him or trade him for pennies on the dollar? We’ll see.
I also think a likely scenario for JT is they buy him out and resign him for less than the 16 mill.
But of course everh year Friedman surprises me! Conventional wisdom is not part of his vocabulary.
When is the last time (if ever) the Dodgers entered October with 4 healthy and effective starters? Pitching is more reliable than hitting in October. Houston just proved that! And that should be our focus this off season. We don’t need April-September. What has Judge done in the post season! We need an ace that can give us 2 wins in each series!