Max Scherzer – Yea or Nay?
Before I answer with my position, let me do my best to lay out some of the factors assuredly being discussed in the Dodger “war rooms”. Max Scherzer is a HOF pitcher who can still bring it at 37. He would be a front of the rotation pitcher even with the Dodgers. This year he is 7-4 with a 2.83 ERA and an exceptional WHIP of 0.886 in 105 IP.
Before I answer with my position, let me do my best to lay out some of the factors assuredly being discussed in the Dodger “war rooms”.
Max Scherzer is a HOF pitcher who can still bring it at 37. He would be a front of the rotation pitcher even with the Dodgers. This year he is 7-4 with a 2.83 ERA and an exceptional WHIP of 0.886 in 105 IP. He has 142 strikeouts against 25 walks. That is a SO/W ratio of 5.68. He has allowed 17 HRs, which is on pace to surrender more HRs in 2021 than any other season other than his CY year of 2016 when he yielded 31.
While not in the MadBum post season class, Max has been tough. In 22 games and 112.0 IP, Max has a 7-5 records with a 3.38 ERA. He has compiled 137 strikeouts vs 46 walks, and given up 12 HRs (3 to LAD). Not as scary 2.98 SO/W. Being candid, he would probably fall into the #2 slot behind Walker Buehler who has been sparkling in post season play. 11 games, 61.1 IP, 2.35 ERA with a 1-1 WL record because LAD cannot score for Walker. He has 83 K and 22 BB and has allowed 5 HRs. Walker gets the ball in a one game WC or in Game 1 of the NLDS.
There is a lot to like about getting Max for the stretch run and October. But at what cost. A rental CF, Starling Marte, cost Oakland Jesus Luzardo. Don’t look at his stats right now. He is a 23 year old who has three plus pitches with plus command and control. He has been hurt, and like Sixto Sanchez, that has to be a concern going forward. But Oakland gave up a lot as a potential Ace for the A’s to win it this year.
Farhan says he is not giving up Joey Bart for a rental. So does Andrew regarding Keibert Ruiz. Will one blink? Or will Preller swoop in and include Luis Campusano? All three front runners have a catcher that Washington would covet.
Who knows the truth when Scott Boras opens his mouth, but his latest comments indicate that he is NOT looking for an extension. Boras prefers negotiating with all 30 teams over 1. He will still ask for something. Maybe he will want to move up the $10MM deferral from 2028 to some time sooner. Maybe tax issues. Who knows, but it will not be free to waive Max’s no trade clause.
On the flip side, Max is not unbeatable. In the postseason, Max is 1-1 against LAD. In 13.0 IP he has allowed 5 runs (3.46 ERA) with 12 Ks and 3 BBs. And as previously indicated, he allowed 3 HRs in those 12 innings.
I am writing this before Wednesday’s game, but Max would not have made a difference in Julio’s start. Well I guess he could have allowed 0 runs. The 8th inning error would still have occurred, and we all know how LAD does in extra inning games. The starting pitching has not been a problem now that Gonsolin and Price are stretching out. As many on this site (and others) have said, this team is not going to win unless Mookie, Seags, and Clayton Kershaw come back healthy, and Belli turns it around. CT3 can play 2B and Lux can go to the bench for this year. I like Lux, and think he will be a star, just not this year.
Scherzer would make any rotation better. But is starting pitching really a problem? How much would Scherzer add to Buehler, Urias, Kershaw if the Dodgers can find another option (internally or externally)?
Would I include Keibert Ruiz for a rental, even one as good as Max Scherzer? No. I would include Ruiz for Luis Castillo, but the Reds do not need another catcher. They have a fine catcher (more than fine) in 24 year old Tyler Stephenson. Jose Berrios? I do not think Berrios is that big of an upgrade over what the Dodgers have to move their #1 prospect. He would be better than the current #4, but at the cost of Ruiz? And Minnesota NEEDS catching, so you know Ruiz would be a must. Byron Buxton? He just cannot stay on the field enough. LAD has enough injury concerns.
I m not opposed to trading Keibert, but not a knee-jerk reaction at the trade deadline. Take some time to see if there is another option next winter, and see how much Cartaya develops. I am sorry for all of you Austin Barnes haters, but he is a perfect backup catcher. The pitchers love to pitch to him, and he hits enough, not a lot, but enough for this supposed offensive juggernaut. As so many complain about his inability to throw out runners, although by the slimmest of margins, Barnes has a better rate at the ML level than does Ruiz at MiLB. Ruiz has still not improved his transfer from glove to hand enough to bring that CS% up. Bringing up Ruiz now would put him on the bench as a PH, and why take him away from playing every day? Hold on for a month, and he will get called up. Smith is an AS catcher (forget what the votes said). Why should he move? Can he play ML 2B or 3B? He hasn’t yet, so how do you know. Because he played some there in college? He is an exceptional athlete so he can move there as a fill in, but I am not convinced he can play enough defensively to stay there. I am amazed at the number of fans who do not value defense. As I said about Seattle, worry about 2022 in the winter.
If the cost for Scherzer is Cartaya and Beeter, make the trade. If AF needs to add another top 20-30 player, okay. Cartaya is a top 100 prospect. In 2017, I wanted Justin Verlander in the worst way. MT and I had some very “healthy” discussions on the merits of Justin Verlander, who like Scherzer had a no-trade clause. Justin wanted to come to LA, so he would have waived it as he did for Houston. Verlander with 2+ years of control brought two top 10 prospects, prospects, and one #23. The best of the bunch, Franklin Perez, who was a top 100 player, has just been a mess with arm issues, and has not pitched since 2019. He had shoulder surgery earlier this season. Daz Cameron (CF) and Jake Rogers (C) were the other two. Scherzer is older and a rental. Cartaya, Beeter, and Jackson, may be an overpay for a rental, but one I would do. Washington probably would not.
Other options: If the offense turns around with the addition of Mookie and Seags, and Kershaw comes back healthy, LAD can live with Price or Gonsolin as #4 and #5. I still like the idea of adding Wade Miley. The cost would be more than reasonable for a #5 pitcher who could be a big lefty out of the pen in the post season. Miley has a $10MM option with a $1MM buyout for 2021. He also has Scherzer type numbers for ERA and WHIP.
But with the offense floundering, I would check into the cost for Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel. Cubs have said they are willing to combine players.
I also love the idea of Trea Turner to LAD. Lux would have to be a part of that deal, and some top pitching (other than Gray). Would Lux, Hoese, and Beeter get it done? Lux and Cartaya? Lux, Cartaya, and Kendall Williams or Andre Jackson? I think Lux becomes an AS with Washington.
I do not like to make trades because I fear what other teams may do. That is exactly how LAD ended up with a significant contract overpay for Trevor Bauer. So if SF or SD overpay to get Max, LAD should just go out and beat him. They are more than capable, and they have done it before. There are other options other than Max Scherzer, and I would like to see AF spend some of his prospect capital for a bat. I do not want to hear there is no place to play. Just like Preller did with Adam Frazier, you make room. Find a way to play a Kris Bryant or a Bryron Buxton or a Trea Turner.
My preference #1 is Max Scherzer if it does not require Keibert Ruiz. Preference #1A – Craig Kimbrel. Preference #2 a difference making bat; Turner, Bryant, Buxton. Preference #3 – Wade Miley. Preference #3A – Ian Kennedy. Preference #4 – Josh Harrison. Preference #4A – Daniel Hudson. Preference #5 – Jonathan Schoop. Preference #5A – Raisel Iglesias. Every one of those players would be an improvement.
I would also check every box possible for Luis Castillo or German Marquez. Let Seattle trade for the Tyler Anderson’s. No to Sonny Gray, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, or any of the other mediocre SP being discussed.
So to answer my question above, Would I trade for Max Scherzer…a definite ——-Maybe.
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Disagree, not disagreeable
Blue Jays traded for Brad Hand. Some of the mid level names will be coming off the boards today.
Max Scherzer To Start Game 1 Of Nationals’ Doubleheader As Trade Rumblings Continue
By Steve Adams | July 29, 2021 at 9:54am CDT
Max Scherzer remains the most intriguing trade candidate on the market, and interested parties will get one more look at him before deciding on an asking price. Nats skipper Dave Martinez announced to reporters Thursday morning that Scherzer will start Game 1 of today’s doubleheader against the Phillies (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). It seems likely this will be Scherzer’s final start with the Nationals, and it’ll serve as an audition of sorts to prove that his triceps is at full strength; Scherzer was scratched from his Saturday start due to minor triceps discomfort, but an MRI has since come back clean.
In Vegas for about 40 hours. I have never stayed at the Wynn before. It’s a pretty nice shack. I doubt that I will gamble even a dollar. No time!
White Sox close to getting Indian’s second baseman Caesar Hernandez, return not yet known. Both Hudson and Turner on Covid-19 IL for the Nats. Scherzer starting one of the doubleheader games for the Nats today. Giants have inquired with the Rockies on Trevor Story.
The clock is ticking down. AF is slowly running out of time. Yanks deal for Gallo not finalized yet. Astro’s getting Yimi improves their pen. One last thing, yesterday ZZ Top bassist Dusty Hill passed away. I always thought their music was some of the best I ever heard. Even being more into country than their bluesy rock, I appreciated their awesome sound and contributions to music. I rarely think songs that are covered by artists other than the original are as good as the original. Hank Jr’s rendition of La Grange is not very good in my eyes. But ZZ Top covered Elvis’s Viva Las Vegas. I think it is one of the best versions I have ever heard. When I wanted to get somewhere fast I would put that song on. It is definitely cruising music. RIP Dusty.
Food for thought:
Open on www.sportsinfosolutions.comhttps://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/the-effectiveness-of-infield-in-defense/Open on probaseballinsider.comhttp://probaseballinsider.com/baseball-instruction/infield-situational-positioning/Infield in is done to prevent scoring. BABIP is increased significantly with infield in. I don’t trade a runner at third for a runner at first. As a hitter, with the infield in, you must barrel something up. The Dodgers hit with 2 strikes more than any team I ever played on or coached. Before 2 strikes you want you want to get it in the air to the outfield. With 2 strikes you want to shorten up and barrel it through the drawn in infield. What always worked for me was – think “back through the middle”. More often than not you seldom go straight up the middle but you hit it hard enough to find a hole.
Nice game w/ Buehler & White both over 70% strikes and well placed ones at that.
Bellinger might not be able to hit the high ones right now, but he can sure take a knee and dig one out. Plus going 1-5 raises his avg! Sure hope they carry “the feeling” over to this afternoon.
cheers
pb+
Chris Bryant is hitting .208 with a .327 OB% over his last 30 games. That spans 96 ABs.
Last year he hit .206. He’s not much of an upgrade (hitting-wise) over Cody Bellinger, although I believe both players will ultimately put it together.
I say no to Bryant.
Craig Kimbrel’s stats are “otherworldly.” When was the last time a relief pitcher has been so dominant?
0.49 ERA
0.71 WHIP
The league is hitting .106 against him.
In 36.2 IP, he has allowed 13 H, 13 walks, and struck out 64.
Baseball is a game of averages and hot and cold streaks.
Can he keep that rate up? I say it’s not likely.
Mark Melancon had an ERA resembling Kimbrel’s in April and May. Then in June, it went up to 4.22 and it is 3.00 in July.
When you trade for a player, you rarely get that same player. Sometimes they are better, many times, they are worse!
Taking Kimbrel’s salary is a big deal. I would love to have him, but not for significant prospects. I would trade Hoese (from The Region) , Amaya, and Jackson for him).
The Nats want too much for Scherzer. I can’t see that happening unless the Nats are willing to take quantity over quality!
Bryant? Yeah, I already voiced my opinion on that. But again, if Mookie is in the lineup, our outfield is Pollock, Bellinger and Betts. Taylor is our #4.
Hip pointer. Hmm. I haven’t heard that, but for me if true it’s good news. Hip pointers are manageable, especially in baseball. Just don’t slide on that hip. Shoot him up with cortisone, rub some dirt on it and get him back in there. No rush though. We are only 2 back with 50 to go. That’s of course 50 using Colorado math.
If I had to choose right now, tough choice but with limited information I take Scherzer. He has to pass a Covid test though.
I heard Doc call Mookie’s injury a “hip pointer”. Hip pointers are like bruise at the end of the hip bone and aren’t consider a serious injury that would require surgery or a lengthy recovery and is not a degenerative condition that gets worse over time. Now, we all know that Doc is not a real Doc, so you never know. But, it seems that Mookie’s hip injury should eventually go away and not jeopardize his career.
I fully agree that a Starting Pitcher gives this team the most bang for the buck as it most likely sends a starter to the pen strengthening both areas. The offense has been great, but inconsistent with no less than 2 stars out of the lineup for most of the season. I can only imagine what a juggernaut it will be when everyone is back and healthy. It sure was nice seeing that Belli Bomb last night even if he delivered it with a 7-0 lead.
If you had the choice of acquiring Bryant and Kimbrel, or Max Scherzer who would it be? I would go with Bryant and Kimbrel as it addresses at least two weaknesses. Bryant is killing lefties this year and he provides insurance at all 4 corners. Kimbrel would allow us to keep Kenley away from one run games.
I still think we won’t need an extra bat if Mookie and Seager come back at 100%. Big if. Bellinger just might have it figured out and soon. My gut has told me “pitching” since before Bauer and Kershaw went down. You can never have too much pitching, and both Urias and Buehler could use a blow in August. The Dodgers season plans always include a few intense, highly competitive series’ in October. And, that extra #1 just might be needed if for some unseen (and visible) reason we have a play in game.
Come on Mookie. I can’t help but think that the trade for Scherzer depends on two important points. 1. Mookie’s health. If he’s not here, I don’t risk it. And I know hip injuries can be serious. Careers have ended with hip injuries. And 2. is Scherzer a rental? Maybe he wants to end his career in LA hanging with the likes of La Bron, Drake, Kershaw and Matthew Stafford.
A lot of unknowns. One thing that isn’t unknown is the fact we are catcher rich.
I love your plan AC, but I want to talk about that contact play last night! What a difference a day makes.
In a game that’s very close to being a “must win” because the result would put us either 2 games back, or 4 and another series loss to our most hated rivals. A 4 run lead in the seventh didn’t make me feel very comfortable. A 5 run lead keeps you out of grand slam territory and would seem like all the difference in the world against a pesky Giants team and our bullpen which is full of surprises.
Once again, we find ourselves in a familiar spot, 1st and 3rd with one out. Bueller hits a ground ball to 3rd and the runner, AJ Pollock again, goes on contact. But, this time he ends up with the desired result. A dropped ball by the catcher and that glorious 5th run scores without a key out recorded on the play.
You see, the added benefit here was that since the out wasn’t record it later brough Muncy to the plate to deliver the dagger through the heart, a two run dagger to put the game away. Without the contact play, AJ is back to third, the out is recorded at first and CT3’s popup ends the inning.
You see, I love the contact play as I love aggressive baserunning. Put pressure on the defense to make the perfect throw and catch and tag. A lot can go wrong, that’s why you do it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t just like many plays in baseball.
It was a huge win and that play turned the game into the unreachable territory. Just what the Doctor ordered.
I really like the idea of bringing in Kris Bryant. He can play 3b and OF and would provide as much insurance for the lineup as a Starting Pitcher would provide for the rotation. I’m pretty comfortable with a postseason rotation of Bueller, Urias, Kershaw and Price, but wouldn’t mind evening it out with another righty. After Gonsolin’s disappearing act last year, I just don’t trust him.
Wade Miley is a fine pitcher…this year. I trust him about as much as I trust Gonso. Which one will show up? Gray looks like he has the tools to do an about face, and become a weapon down the stretch. But, with just about a day remaining before the deadline, are we willing to roll the dice?
Berrios is another fine pitcher and he checks the right handed box. He’s young and has another year of control providing some insurance for next year. He’s the Ace of the Twins staff and is used to going up against other “Ones”. He’s been solid, but underwhelming in the postseason.
Kimbrel would be a huge add. He is possibly the top closer in the league right now and has been there before.
One starter, one closer and one bat sounds a lot like good ole George Thorogood, one bourbon, one scotch and one beer. Both will put you over the top.
Alright Badger and PJ. Do you still hate the contact play?
I agree with your post. Scherzer can b awesome but he also gives up a lot of homers and some have been gamechangers in a close game. He also has had meltdowns against San Diego for one where he just totally loses it. Having said that I would like to have him but not for Ruiz.
Wade Miley would b an interesting arm to get. Cincinnati thinks they r still in but I don’t. I would not want Kennedy but of course Bryant and Kimbrel would be nice. Kimbrel mb too costly. Harrison mb because he plays multiple positions and can make contact compared to our 4a players. If healthy I believe our answers are on the roster. We just have to perform.
Good win, Walker was fantastic and White showed again why he has a future with the Dodgers.
Good to see Belli connect after all.
Chance to close the gap to 1 today.
When will Lux and Seager finally be back ? Lux should be able to come of the IL today if I am correct.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Totally agree, it is not the pitching that is failing (although it would not be a bad thing to get another arm for the bullpen) I think that sometimes the simple fact of making a trade gives encouragement to the team, it is like showing that you want to do something for the team, I think Bryant would be the one for the team
The deadline to sign 2021 draft picks is 2 p.m. PT on Sunday, August 1.
2021 Dodgers draft picks
Round Pick # Pos Player Bat/Throw Age* School Slot value Signed?
1 29 LHP Maddux Bruns L/L 19 UMS Wright prep (AL) $2,424,600 $2,197,500
3 101 RHP Peter Heubeck R/R 18 Gilman School (MD) $577,000 $1,269,500
4 131 RHP Nick Nastrini R/R 21 UCLA $430,800 $497,500
5 162 RHP Ben Casparius R/R 22 UConn $318,200 $247,500
6 192 RHP Emmet Sheehan R/R 21 Boston College $247,000 $244,500
7 222 RHP Ryan Sublette R/R 22 Texas Tech $194,400 $147,500
8 252 LHP Ben Harris L/L 21 Georgia $162,700 $197,500
9 282 LHP Lael Lockhart S/L 23 Arkansas $149,800 $2,500
10 312 RHP Michael Hobbs R/R 21 St. Mary’s College $142,200 $2,500
11 342 LHP Justin Wrobleski L/L 20 Oklahoma State $197,500
12 372 LHP Ronan Kopp L/L 18 South Mountain CC (AZ) Yes
13 402 RHP Antonio Knowles R/R 21 Florida SouthWestern State College Yes
14 432 RHP Jordan Leasure R/R 22 Tampa Yes
15 462 RHP Madison Jeffrey L/R 21 West Virginia Yes
16 492 SS Michael Sirota R/R 18 The Gunnery School (CT)
17 522 LHP Adam Tulloch L/L 20 West Virginia
18 552 OF Damon Keith R/R 21 Cal Baptist Yes
19 582 RHP Gabe Emmett R/R 20 Folsom Lake College Yes
20 612 RHP Charlie Connolly R/R 22 Navy
Totals $4,646,700 +$232,300 (4.99%)
*age as of June 30, 2021
Dodgers sign 16 of 19 picks so far